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The <keyword id="23021375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-passenger-vehicle-industry" source="keywords">domestic passenger vehicle industry</keyword> volumes declined by low single digit in August 2024 as compared with August 2023, because of weak retail demand trends and higher <keyword id="21396778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inventory-levels" source="keywords">inventory levels</keyword> at the dealerships according to Kotak Institutional Equities. The report suggests that the major reason for the sluggishness in sales of tractors is the uneven spatial distribution of rainfall, particularly in northern and eastern regions. It also highlights that growth will pick up in the coming months on the back of <keyword id="23021373" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="improved-monsoon" source="keywords">improved monsoon</keyword> conditions. The upcoming festive season will also improve the situation as traditionally it is a peak period for auto sales. Strong festive demand could help offset some of the losses experienced in the first half of the fiscal year. The weak wholesale figures in August were driven by private vehicles (PV), commercial vehicles (CV) and tractor original equipment manufacturers (OEM). Retail sales declined in single digits (yoy) for most of the companies. The PV segment saw a low single-digit decline in domestic wholesale volumes year-on-year (YoY) in August 2024, driven by weak retail demand and elevated inventory levels at dealerships, which stood at approximately 70 days. The retail sales fell by mid-single digits YoY during the month. Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL), the largest player in the segment, reported a 4 per cent YoY drop in total volumes, including a 5 per cent decline in domestic sales but it was partially offset by a 6 per cent rise in the export volumes. MSIL's wholesale market share is estimated to have slipped by 250 basis points YoY to approximately 40.5-4 per cent says the report. Other major players also faced challenges in sales. Tata Motors recorded a 3 per cent YoY decrease in PV volumes, while Hyundai Motors reported an 8 per cent drop. However, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (M&amp;M) bucked the trend with a 16 per cent YoY increase in PV volumes, and Toyota India posted a significant 37 per cent YoY growth on low volumes. Kia and MG Motors also experienced an uptick in sales. The two-wheeler (2W) segment showed resilience with high single-digit YoY growth in domestic wholesale volumes, largely driven by channel filling ahead of the festive season. Retail sales of the internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheelers grew by mid-single digits YoY, while electric two-wheeler (EV 2W) sales surged by 41 per cent YoY, propelled by new mass-market EV launches and attractive discounts. Among the key players, Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) saw a 5 per cent YoY rise in volumes, and TVS Motor reported a robust 14 per cent YoY increase, with growth in both domestic and export segments. Bajaj Auto's volumes grew by 18 per cent YoY, driven primarily by domestic sales. However, Royal Enfield faced a 5 per cent YoY decline in volumes. Going forward, the report highlighted that the Commercial Vehicle (CV) segment underperformed during the month, with domestic volumes declining by low double digits YoY, primarily due to weakness in the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) truck and Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segments. Tata Motors experienced a 15 per cent YoY drop in domestic CV volumes, with sharp declines in Small Commercial Vehicle (SCV) cargo (down 23 per cent) and MHCV trucks (down 15 per cent). Ashok Leyland also reported a 7 per cent YoY decline in CV volumes, while VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV) managed a modest 1 per cent YoY increase. In August, the domestic tractor segment remained flat YoY with volumes coming in 5-6 per cent. During this period, M&amp;M's tractor volumes grew by 1 per cent YoY, while Escort Kubota's volumes remained unchanged compared to the same period last year. The report says that strong festive demand could help offset some of the losses experienced in the first half of the fiscal year, particularly if economic conditions and consumer sentiment improve.

Auto Industry sales to surge on the back of improved monsoon, festive season demands: Report

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

The <keyword id="19919399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asian-Development-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Asian Development Bank" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Asian Development Bank">Asian Development Bank</keyword> (ADB) on Wednesday maintained India's <keyword id="20540008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth-forecast" source="keywords">GDP growth forecast</keyword> at 7 per cent for the current financial year, citing that a rebound in agriculture is expected given above-normal <keyword id="22442671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon-projections" source="keywords">monsoon projections</keyword>. The ADB forecast comes a day after the International Monetary Fund revised upward its GDP growth projections for India to 7 per cent compared to 6.8 per cent projected in April. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upward its growth forecast to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent estimated earlier. The <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> is on track to grow by 7 per cent in FY2024 (ending 31 March 2025) and 7.2 per cent in FY2025 (next financial year), as projected in ADO April 2024, said the July edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO). The Indian economy logged a growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the financial year ended March 2024, as against 7 per cent in the previous fiscal year. Services continued to expand robustly in Q4 of FY24, and the forward-looking services PMI is well above its long-term average, it said, adding, industry is also expected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand for construction led by housing, it said. "After muted growth in FY2023 (previous fiscal), a rebound in agriculture is expected given the above-normal monsoon projections. This is notwithstanding the slower advance of monsoon in June. A rebound in agriculture will be important to sustain growth momentum in rural areas," it said. Investment demand continues to be strong, led by public investments and bank credit is fueling robust housing demand and improving private investment demand, it said. However, it said, export growth will continue to be led by services, with merchandise exports showing relatively weaker growth. The stronger-than-expected fiscal position of the central government could provide a further boost to growth, it said. However, the report said, this must be weighed against downside risks arising from weather events and geopolitical shocks. With regard to inflation, ADO has also retained its forecast at 4.6 per cent for the current financial year and expects it to marginally decline to 4.5 per cent next fiscal. With regard to developing Asia's growth forecast, ADO said, it is revised up to 5 per cent in 2024 and maintained at 4.9 per cent in 2025. Growth projections remain broadly unchanged with respect to ADO April 2024, it said, adding, resilient domestic demand along with improved exports and manufacturing will support growth this year. The region's 2024 growth forecast has been marginally adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points due to upward revisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia along with East Asia, it said. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for the region has fallen to 2.9 per cent in 2024, largely due to downward revisions in China and the Caucasus and Central Asia, which offset a slight increase in South Asia, it said.

Monsoon projections to ensure India's GDP growth forecast remains at 7% for FY'25: Asian Development Bank

New Delhi [India], July 23 (ANI): <keyword id="19956758" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Finance Minister</keyword> <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is set to present the <keyword id="15626720" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget-2024" source="Orion">Union Budget 2024</keyword> in Parliament today, marking her seventh consecutive budget and eclipsing the late Moraji Desai's record of six consecutive budgets, which is likely to focus on changes in the income tax structure and improving the ease of doing business in India. At 11 am today, the much-awaited full budget for 2024-25, the first under the Modi 3.0 government, will be presented on the floor of the Parliament. All eyes will be on the major announcements made by the finance minister and the government's forward-looking guidance about the overall economy. Sitharaman will lay on the table a statement (in English and Hindi) of the estimated receipts and expenditures of the government for the year 2024-25 in the Rajya Sabha. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111946291" title="Union Budget 2024-25: Focus on employment, skilling, MSME and middle class" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>She will table the budget one hour after the conclusion of the presentation of the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 in the Lok Sabha. The Finance Minister also lay on the table, under subsection (1) of Section 3 of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003, a copy each (in English and Hindi) of the following papers: medium-term fiscal policy strategy statement and macro-economic framework statement. The Finance Minister will further lay on the table statements (in English and Hindi) of the estimated receipts and expenditures (2024-25) of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (with the legislature). The interim budget, tabled on February 1, took care of the financial needs of the intervening period until a government was formed after the Lok Sabha polls, after which a full budget was to be presented by the new government. With this upcoming budget presentation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will surpass the record set by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai, who presented five annual budgets and one interim budget between 1959 and 1964 as finance minister. The <keyword id="105431" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget-session" source="Orion">budget session</keyword> of Parliament began on July 22 and, according to schedule, will end on August 12. Before presenting the Budget, the finance minister will go to the North Block, where the Ministry of Finance is housed. She will meet the secretaries of her ministry, and later, along with them, she will reach the President's residence to get permission before presenting the Budget. About half an hour before the budget is presented, a Cabinet meeting headed by the prime minister is usually held, where ministers are briefed about the budget and Cabinet approval is taken. Putting aside the details of the upcoming budget, let us review the budget-making process and sequence of events typically followed. The Ministry of Finance typically issues circulars to all ministries, Union territories, States, and autonomous entities to send their demands and recommendations for the Union budget around September-October, with budgets typically tabled on February 1. Another key event before the budget presentation is the 'halwa ceremony'. A few days before the budget is presented, the government has a tradition of conducting a 'halwa ceremony', marking the start of budget document printing. The Halwa ceremony is significant as it also marks the beginning of a lockdown at the finance ministry, meaning no official is allowed to leave the ministry compound. Everyone on the budget team is allowed to leave only after the financial document is presented in Parliament. The printing of the Union Budget inside the basement located in the North Block has been a permanent feature since 1980. A day before the budget is scheduled to be tabled, the government typically releases its Economic Survey. This year, too, the same norms were followed. The Economic Survey serves as a crucial input for budget formulation. It is prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor and provides an overview of the country's economic performance, prospects, and policy recommendations, including future outlook. India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in a press conference after the tabling of the Economic Survey. The Economic Survey tabled projected India to grow at 6.5-7.0 percent in 2024-25. As per the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the Indian economy is on a strong and stable footing, demonstrating resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges. The first Economic Survey reportedly came into existence in 1950-51, when it used to be a part of the budget documents. In the 1960s, it was separated from the budget documents and presented a day before the Union Budget. The budget, once it is presented, is then subjected to detailed debate and discussion in both houses of Parliament, allowing members to scrutinise its provisions, raise concerns, and propose amendments. Following its presentation and approval by Parliament, the Union Budget sets in motion a series of post-budget activities aimed at implementing its provisions and achieving the outlined objectives. Like the previous few full Union budgets, the Budget 2024 will also be delivered in paperless form. An Interim Union Budget 2024 was presented on February 1, as the country was due for general elections later in the year. All the Union Budget documents, including the Annual Financial Statement (commonly known as the Budget), Demand for Grants (DG), and Finance Bill, as prescribed by the Constitution, will be available on the "Union Budget Mobile App" for hassle-free access to budget documents by Members of Parliament (MPs) and the public. The app is bilingual (English and Hindi) and available on both Android and iOS platforms. The app can also be downloaded from the Union Budget Web Portal (www.indiabudget.gov.in). SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/union-budget-2024-live-updates-finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman-key-announcements-23-july/liveblog/111942008.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Union Budget 2024 Live Updates: PM Modi arrives in Parliament ahead of Budget 2024 presentation</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/why-did-the-latest-economic-survey-of-india-heavily-shun-the-western-ways-of-climate-action/articleshow/111947230.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Why did the latest Economic Survey of India heavily shun the ‘Western ways’ of climate action?</a>

Here's a quick overview of PM Modi 3.0 government's first budget, to be presented by FM Nirmala Sitharaman today

India's largest paint maker <keyword id="20026009" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Asian-Paints" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Asian Paints" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Asian Paints">Asian Paints</keyword>, reported a 24.5% dip in its net profits for the quarter, pushing it down to Rs 1,170 crore from Rs 1,383 crore in the same quarter last year. The company's net sales during the quarter also dipped by over 2% to touch Rs 8,970 crore, compared to Rs 9,182.31 crore in the year-ago period. In a statement, Amit Syngle, MD and CEO of Asian Paints attributed the below-expectation results to tough demand conditions during <keyword id="21159844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="April-June" source="keywords">April-June</keyword>, which also saw severe heatwaves and general elections. However, he expected the demand to pick up soon, largely on the back of improving <keyword id="22447264" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-sentiment" source="keywords">rural sentiment</keyword> and monsoon making headway in the country. The company's international sales also took hit, down to Rs 679.1 crore from Rs 695.1 crore, mainly due to liquidity and forex crises it experienced in the key markets, namely Asia, Nepal, Bangladesh and Egypt. On the other hand, Ethiopia and <keyword id="19931726" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sri-lanka" source="keywords">Sri Lanka</keyword> proved beneficial for the company's international growth during the quarter. In June 2024, the company paid out a final dividend of Rs 28.15 per equity share to its shareholders. The company also reported a 7% volume growth during the previous quarter. But its EBITDA margin during the quarter shrunk from 23.1% in the same quarter last year to 18.1% between April-June 2024. The company's consolidated profits before depreciation, interest, tax, income and exceptional items dipped to Rs 1,694 crore, as compared to Rs 2,121 crore in the year ago period. <h2>Bath fitting sales inch up </h2>The only segment within the business' umbrella that registered growth was the bath fitting segment, which grew by 10%, and <keyword id="6921293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kitchen-fittings" source="Orion">kitchen fittings</keyword>, which jumped by 4.6%. The company's industrial business grew by 5.8% due to solid growth in auto original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and the powder coating segments. At close of markets on Tuesday, the paint maker's stock was trading at Rs 2,968.00, up by 0.39%. Over the last year, the company's share has fallen by as much as 14.23%, but it remains a solid catch for long-term investors, jumping up by 116.78% over the last 5 years.

Asian Paints Q1FY25 results: Net profit dips by 25%, revenue also misses market estimates

<ul><li>Improved customer sentiment and competitive pricing are expected to play crucial roles in driving vehicle sales. </li><li>The two-wheeler segment has seen a demand boost, especially in rural areas, thanks to attractive promotions. </li><li>The <keyword id="762866" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="passenger-vehicle" source="Orion">passenger vehicle</keyword> (PV) category has enjoyed a resurgence with improved vehicle availability and the introduction of new models. </li></ul>As the festive season is upon us, there is a sense of eager anticipation and excitement that is sweeping through the automotive industry. In the two-wheeler (2W) segment, while the initial part of the month might be relatively quiet due to the observance of the Shraddh period, upcoming festivals like Durga Puja and Navratri are poised to inject a renewed energy into the sales environment, as per Vehicle Retail Data for Sep 2023 released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). The uptick in demand is supported by improved customer sentiment and competitive pricing strategies, both of which are expected to play a crucial role in driving sales. Additionally, the introduction of new models into the market is set to further enhance the overall optimism. In the passenger vehicle (PV) sector, the market is also poised to witness a sales boost during the festive season. This is fueled by the launch of new products, improved availability of popular models, and the continued success of recently introduced vehicles. Similarly, in the <keyword id="47608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-vehicle" source="Orion">commercial vehicle</keyword> (CV) sector, the conclusion of the monsoon season brings with it the prospect of a resurgence in infrastructure projects and the transportation of essential goods. This anticipated increase in demand is expected to strengthen the market. The availability of a wider range of vehicles and attractive financing options is likely to facilitate bulk purchases, adding to the positive outlook in this segment. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Growth recorded across segments" comment="Subhead" text="Growth recorded across segments">Growth recorded across segments</cmsannotation> Analysing the data when compared to the same period a year before, one sees broad-based growth across segments – In September, 2W sales increased by 22%, 3W surged by 49%, PV grew by 19%, and CV by 5%. Tractors sales, however, declined by -10%. Compared to pre-COVID benchmarks, the sector achieved a robust 14% increase, with the 2W category recording positive growth (2%) for the first time. Says Manish Raj Singhania, president, FADA, "September's Auto Retail celebrated a 20% year-on- year (Y-o-Y) leap, continuing the momentum from the previous month while marking a 3.5% month-on-month (M-o-M) increase, seamlessly transitioning into the festive period’s sweet spot set to unfold over the next 42 days.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Two wheeler sales hit record high" comment="Subhead" text="Two wheeler sales hit record high">Two wheeler sales hit record high</cmsannotation> Three-wheeler sales hit a new high in September, reaching 102,426 units, showing a 49% Y-o-Y and 3% M-o-M increase, surpassing the previous record set in August 2023 at 99,907 units. The two-wheeler (2W) sector saw a boost in demand as the festive season approached, thanks to new models and attractive promotions, especially in rural areas. This led to increased customer traffic and positive market sentiment, supported by better stock availability and the successful launch of entry-level products. The passenger vehicle (PV) category enjoyed a resurgence with improved vehicle availability and the introduction of new models. There was consistent demand for luxury cars and SUVs, supported by pending bookings and promising product launches, setting the stage for potential growth in the upcoming festive season. In September 2023, the commercial vehicle (CV) segment remained strong, driven by demand in coal, cement, and general market load sectors. The passenger carrier segment also experienced growth, attributed to government infrastructure investments and improved market sentiment post-COVID-19.

With monsoon worries gone, auto sector bets on stellar festive revival

<ul><li>Tomatoes demonstrate <keyword id="18976288" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="cobweb-phenomenon" source="Orion">cobweb phenomenon</keyword> in economics.</li><li>Low prices one season discourage farmers from planting from the next season.</li><li>Perishable and seasonal nature causes extremes in prices.</li></ul> Prices of the humble tomato, an integral part of our diet, dominated through July because prices hit Rs 200 a kilo. After the tomato, prices of the ivy gourd or tendli shot through the roof. These prices perfectly demonstrate the cobweb phenomenon of cyclic price fluctuations in economics. It usually applies to agricultural goods, like potatoes or onions, which have inelastic demand. In layman terms, inelastic demand means that even a large change in price of these goods will cause only a small decrease in quantity demanded. Farmers have to decide the extent of the production, well in advance, based on the results of the previous year. Low prices one season discourage farmers from planting from the next season. Hence, prices skyrocket in the next season due to limited supply, causing farmers to increase the supply. Excessively abundant supply that must be sold immediately due to the perishable nature of the good causes prices to decrease rapidly, setting the vicious cycle into play again. Less than two months later, farmers are throwing tomatoes on highways because prices have dipped below production cost. In recent times, we have seen farmers shift areas of cultivation to crops like soya and cotton after low price realization for tomatoes between December 2022 and April 2023. Hence, July saw a dramatic decrease in output after the crop’s two- three month harvest period. Limited supply caused very high prices, delivering supernormal or windfall profits to farmers who maintained supply at this point. The government intervened, selling tomatoes procured by NCCF and NAFED cooperatives at discounted prices to make them more accessible in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Supply chain disruption caused by unseasonal rainfall and excessive heat that destroyed crops worsened the situation. For example, heavy rainfall in Karnataka damaged 70% of the crop which would have been ready in August. The present situation has reached the other extreme with abundant supply since July’s exorbitant prices prompted farmers to increase production. Prices have plummeted to the extent that some farmers are dumping their produce on roads. This dumping is reminiscent of April 2022 when prices dipped to as low Rs 4 due to glut in the market. Although tomatoes constitute less than 1% of the <keyword id="6355865" type="General" weightage="60" keywordseo="cpi" source="Orion">CPI</keyword> index (the price index for basket of goods acquired by consumers), their impact is pervasive on consumers’ inflation expectations for all vegetables. The over 200% price increase in July contributed to an inflation rate of 37.34% for vegetables and general CPI inflation rate of 7.44%. In its monthly State of the Economy article for July 2023 , The Reserve Bank of India stated that “Its (tomatoes’) volatility also gets transmitted to prices of other vegetables in both retail and wholesale markets.” Although the cobweb phenomenon is inherent to demand and supply characteristics of tomatoes, its effects could be mitigated by strengthening processing, preservation and storage practices. Improving connectivity within the country would enable secondary supply to those regions, which experience the most shortage. The author, Ananya Tawakley, is an external writer and the views expressed in the article are her own.

The phenomenon behind tumultuous prices

<ul><li><keyword id="4764339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="drug-shortages" source="Orion">Drug shortages</keyword>, channel realignment and woes of competitors to aid US business of <keyword id="58106" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-pharma" source="Orion">Indian pharma</keyword> cos.</li><li>Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Zydus and Sun Pharmaceuticals gained from sales of generic cancer drugs in the US.</li><li>US FDA inspections are in full swing and the accelerating pace of new launches will improve outlook for US business in FY24, say analysts. </li></ul>The Indian pharma sector has gone through many ups and downs in the last few years – like falling from a Covid-high last year, adding to pricing pressures in its most important market. In the first quarter of FY24 however some of the US market pricing pressures are easing, making up for the slump in domestic sales. “Q1 FY24 turned out to be a tale of two divergent performances as US delivered across the board beat while domestic business, specifically acute, saw weakness in June. Price erosion came in at high single digit in US versus mid-teens last year reflecting in better US revenue growth and profitability,” said a report by YES Securities. Drug shortages, channel realignment and financial as well as regulatory woes of competitors seems to have helped curb US market price erosion in Q1 on a quarter-on-quarter, say analysts. The US market has been dented in the last few years for many reasons including pricing pressures — like supply chain disruptions, and a massive delay in approval of Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs) leading to fewer generic launches in the US. However, the ability to launch the generic version of a cancer drug gRevlimid in the US abated some of the concerns. Dr Reddy’s generated sales to the tune of $125 million from this generic in Q1 while Cipla, Zydus and Sun Pharmaceuticals reported gRevlimid sales between 40-60 million. “We believe the earnings support from gRevlimid is expected to drive the US base business and abate pricing pressure for the coming two years. Moreover, US FDA inspections are in full swing and the accelerating pace of new launches will improve outlook for US business in FY24,” J M Financial. Lupin and Zydus Life benefitted from exclusive launches of gSuprep and gTrokendi. Darunavir and gSpiriva are other drugs in the pipeline that can boost North America sales of Indian pharma companies. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Stock </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Growth levers ahead </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Sun Pharma </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Specialty performance </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Dr Reddys </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Revlimid contribution to sustain in 2Q </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Zydus Lifesciences </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Near-term US outlook promising </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Cipla </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">US base biz at $210- 215 mn hereon: mgmt </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Lupin </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Attractive launch pipeline </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: J M Financial Sun shines in the <keyword id="6382118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-market" source="Orion">domestic market</keyword> The domestic <keyword id="101756" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pharma-market" source="Orion">pharma market</keyword> seems to see the after-effects of a delayed monsoon, which led to weakness in acute therapies like gastroenteritis which aids seasonal sales in Q1. This trend impacted key players like Dr Reddy’s, JB Chemicals and Alkem. Alkem however said that there has been no change in domestic sales even in July, August is expected to provide some quality on the same. Sun Pharma, however, is an outlier with a good performance in the domestic business as it boosted its sales strength along with new launches. It launched 105 new products in FY23 as compared to 77 new launches the year before. “Sun’s India business has grown at 11% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY20-23, driven by volume, price and new launches. We expect Sun’s India business to grow at around 10% CAGR over FY23-26,” said a report by IIFL Securities. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Text"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div>

US outlook improves for Indian pharma but domestic market under the cloud

<ul><li>Water levels in India’s reservoirs have been dipping consistently over the years.</li><li><keyword id="6357283" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-water-commission" source="Orion">Central Water Commission</keyword> (<keyword id="54702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cwc" source="Orion">CWC</keyword>), which monitors the storage levels in 143 major reservoirs spread all over the country, reported Indus, Mahi and Sabarmati as highly deficient reservoirs on June 30.</li><li>As per the report, available live storage in the country’s 143 reservoirs monitored was at <a href="http://www.cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/30062022-bulletin.pdf">only 28%</a> of their capacity.</li></ul>Due to <keyword id="181724" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="delayed-monsoon" source="Orion">delayed monsoon</keyword> and an extended summer ridden with <keyword id="644986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heatwaves" source="Orion">heatwaves</keyword>, India’s water reservoir level has been dipping. Over<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/environment/news/30-large-reservoirs-in-india-dip-to-a-decadal-low-after-erratic-rains-in-june/articleshow/92665877.cms"> 30 large reservoirs </a>across India don’t just have less water compared to last year, but far less compared to the average of the last 10 years. This directly affects the daily water needs of cities and the ongoing Kharif sowing season. A drop in water reservoir level could also worsen India’s power cuts as 45 of 143 reservoirs aid hydropower generation. While the southwest <keyword id="6358301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="Orion">monsoon</keyword> has finally descended into northwest India, the water level in India’s key reservoirs has not improved. Central Water Commission (CWC), which monitors the storage levels in 143 major reservoirs spread all over the country, reported that Indus, Mahi and Sabarmati have highly deficient reservoirs as of June 30. Ganga basin has reported a decline of 3% storage capacity from last month; Narmada, Godavari and Krishna are only at 20%, 29% and 26% of their capacity levels. As per the report, available live storage in the country’s 143 reservoirs monitored was at <a href="http://www.cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/30062022-bulletin.pdf">only 28%</a> of their capacity. 101 of the 143 monitored reservoirs were at <a href="http://www.cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/30062022-bulletin.pdf">40% capacity or less</a>. The highest gaps in Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand, as these states also reported the highest departures in cumulative rainfall. India is highly dependent on rainfall for its drinking water and agricultural output India’s monsoon not only provides relief from the sweltering heat but is the backbone of the agriculture industry. Timely and sufficient rainfall ensures sustenance for Indian farmers. However, the monsoon season has become increasingly erratic in India and some regions have been hit harder by the change in rainfall patterns. Parts of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Chhattisgarh have seen a significant <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/the-roots-of-india-s-deepening-rural-water-crisis-1564323444810.html">shortfall </a>in rains over the last decade compared to historical averages. After a particularly hot summer this year, India’s reservoirs have lost most of their water to evaporation. Shailendra Singh Rao, founder of climate change and carbon asset firm Creduce said that water conservation, preservation and storage is a huge problem in India. “India’s drinking water comes from reservoirs, which are highly dependent on the monsoons. From November to June, all the water reservoirs are mostly exhausted and the water is mostly used. There is a lack of system wherein, the reservoirs are either technically not equipped enough or well connected to the other water channels, so there is no continuous flow of water in most of the reservoirs in the country,” said Rao. A slight delay in monsoon, therefore, has a ripple effect on the entire agricultural cycle and on India’s overall drinking water supply. “If it doesn't rain, there is no proper channel of natural currents or other sources to fill up the reservoir throughout the year. That is a major impact due to the delayed monsoon. Jaisalmer lake Udaipur, which is considered to be the biggest reservoir for drinking water in India, is almost exhausted and dried up. If the monsoon is delayed, the surrounding ecosystem of that reservoir will also get impacted drastically,” said Rao. Due to this, sowing windows have been altered and it has been a weak start to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/kharif-sowing-is-off-to-a-weak-start-with-extended-dry-spells-and-floods/articleshow/92435771.cms">Kharif sowing</a>. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/slow-sowing-wary-global-buyers-can-take-rice-prices-on-the-same-path-as-wheat/articleshow/92489067.cms">Rice</a>, maize, pulses such as urad, moong dal and millets are among the key Kharif crops.

Heatwave followed by a delayed monsoon is drying up India’s reservoirs that provide drinking water

<ul><li>India is witnessing <a href="https://www.mid-day.com/lifestyle/nature-and-wildlife/article/erratic-rainfall-pattern-in-india-amid-climate-change-warns-ipcc-report-23223005">erratic</a> rainfall after suffering from intense <keyword id="190116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heat-waves" source="Orion">heat waves</keyword> in April.</li><li>On one hand, Assam has received <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-24-southwest-monsoon-to-cover-india-entirely-between-june-30-and-july-6">too much</a> rainfall and on the other, Jharkhand has received around half of what it’s due.</li><li>We are only halfway through 2022 and India has already witnessed extreme weather patterns.</li></ul>Heatwaves somewhere, floods in other parts of the country – India has witnessed extreme weather patterns in 2022 and we are only just halfway through the year. After suffering from intense heat waves in April, Assam has received <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-06-24-southwest-monsoon-to-cover-india-entirely-between-june-30-and-july-6">too much</a> rainfall and on the other, Jharkhand has received around half of what it’s due. <div type="image" title="rain or sun" msid="92592948" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Giphy&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> <keyword id="185923" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="erratic-monsoon" source="Orion">Erratic monsoon</keyword> in India The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">easterly winds</a> that bring <keyword id="6358301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="Orion">monsoon</keyword> to the Northwest India have been absent in June this year, leading to a dry spell in the region. Instead, those winds drifted to Northeast India, leading to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">floods</a>. As June came to an end, as per <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1542378873492344835">IMD</a>, Southwest monsoon advanced into entire Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmiri, some parts of Rajasthan, entire Delhi, some parts of Punjab and Haryana on Thursday. According to the latest EcoScope report from research firm Motilal Oswal, India’s cumulative rainfall has a reported deficit of 7% as of June 26, 2022 after reporting a surplus of 20% in 2021 and 22% in 2020. The deficiency of rainfall is because the northwestern, central and southern parts of India have a shortfall of rains, suggesting that the issue is a lot more widespread than initially expected. <div type="image" title="kharif-2" msid="92592978" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> A see-saw summer From long dry spells to excessive rainfall, 2022 has been a year of extremes so far. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), April was the <a href="https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20220402_pr_1551.pdf">hottest</a> month for northwest and central India and the third-hottest April the country has seen over the past 122 years, from 1901 to 2022. The daily high temperatures measured each year have also been increasing at a faster rate than daily low temperatures. This indicates that the distribution of temperature is shifting and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/india-heat-wave-in-pictures.html">changing</a> the ‘normal’ state. In fact, 12 of the country’s 15 <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1686173">warmest years</a> on record have occurred in the last 30 years. <div type="image" title="unnamed (6)" msid="92592990" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> These recurring patterns of intense hot spells and erratic rainfall could be a sign of climate change and global warming. Our country is also expected to suffer through more frequent and intense hot spells, extreme rainfall and erratic monsoons in the coming decades as the planet warms, said <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-s-record-heatwave-to-get-worse-authorities-blame-global-warming-122042900785_1.html">United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel</a>, a body for assessing science related to climate change. Cascading impacts of climate change This radical change in the weather is not good news for a country like India, which is heavily dependent on agriculture as it contributes <a href="https://india.mongabay.com/2021/10/extreme-weather-becomes-the-new-normal-in-indias-main-monsoon-season/">16-20% to GDP</a>, according to Finance Ministry data. In a country like India farmers are heavily dependent on monsoons for irrigating their fields, erratic rainfall and hot summer are the bane for their cultivation. According to a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS">World Bank report</a>, as of 2015, nearly 62% of the agricultural lands in India are dependent on monsoon rains for irrigation. As of 24th Jun’22, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/the-winds-of-change-are-changing-the-fortunes-of-indian-farmers/articleshow/92487685.cms">Kharif sowing</a> is 24% lower than the area sown last year. <div type="image" title="kharif-1" msid="92593007" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;BI India&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The 2022 summer, which was ridden with heatwaves, led to cascading impacts not just on human health, but also on ecosystems such as agriculture, water and energy supplies. Power demand spiked and coal inventories dropped, leaving the country with its worst <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/why-are-there-power-cuts-and-heatwave-in-india/articleshow/91177785.cms">power shortage</a> in more than six years. The heat wave also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/after-five-record-crops-heat-wave-threatens-indias-wheat-output-export-plans-2022-05-02/">threatened</a> India’s wheat output plan. According to a World Meteorological Organization report released in 2020, India lost more than <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-lost-87-billion-to-climate-disasters-in-2020-report-101635272896946.html">$87 billion</a> (approx. ₹6.8 lakh crore) due to disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts. However, there’s still hope to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">control</a> climate change. It will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).

SIMPLY PUT: extreme weather is the new normal in India

<ul><li>A <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> report says that rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market and more.</li><li>Its rural activity tracker has picked up in the last 3-4 months.</li><li>Rural wages have been showing improvement in August and rural unemployment hit an 8-month low in September.</li><li>The structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes.</li></ul>Rural economy is all set for a rebound as per readings from four key indicators – employment, credit offtake, auto sales and trade, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. “We believe rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market conditions, and improving terms of trade for the rural sector,” the report said. Apart from increasing food inflation since the start of this financial year, India’s villages have been suffering from the effects of the second wave of the pandemic – which dislocated livelihoods. Government spending too was reduced, as compared to the first wave. However, the tide seems to be turning. “High-frequency data suggest that overall economic activity has been normalising over the past three months after remaining sluggish in the trailing 12 months. Our consolidated rural activity tracker shows a pickup in YoY terms over the last 3-4 months,” the report said. Cyclical outlook The first indicator is the unemployment rate which hit an 8-month low in September, as per CMIE. Secondly, two-wheeler sales reached 1.1 million in September, its highest since the pre-pandemic month of October 2020. Agricultural credit growth also hit its highest in nine months in August – at 13.4%. “Even as agriculture exports have been impacted by policy decisions to restrict exports of wheat and rice, they have grown 27.5% in the financial year to date FY23. The terms of trade are now turning with non-food inflation moderating,” Morgan Stanley said. An increase in hiring in the informal sector and more employment opportunities in the semi-skilled space will also help improve rural household incomes, as per the report. Normalised activity will also boost monetary transfers from urban to rural areas - and give a much-needed fillip to the rural economy. Moreover, rural wages – both farm and non-farm — have shown an improvement in August. “Rural wages are steady in nominal terms and probably at trough in real terms,” the report said. Structurally speaking Apart from the cyclical outlook, the structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes. Apart from improving agricultural productivity, they are building infrastructure, industry and services along with skill-building of the rural labour force. “Progress has already been made in physical infrastructure, connectivity and digital infrastructure, and we expect policymakers to continue to focus on boosting productivity across the rural economy,” the report said. While government spending in rural areas has reduced since the start of the pandemic, it’s still at 3.3% of the GDP — well above the pre-pandemic levels. However, Morgan Stanley also insists that there are risks associated with their assumptions on <keyword id="9592296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rural-recovery" source="Orion">rural recovery</keyword>. They include slower-than-expected improvement in contact-intensive services segment growth, weak job creation in the semi-skilled segment, and an increase in commodity prices — which will increase non-food inflation and worsen terms of trade for the rural sector. Monsoons: Scarcity plus surplus The biggest drag however is the patchy monsoon this year. While rainfall was 6% above last year’s rainfall, as much as 40% of the total area received excess rainfall and six regions (17% of total) in the north and north-eastern parts of the country recorded a deficit. As per the full-season data, decline in kharif acreage touched 0.8% year-on-year as the deficit in rice sowing – a key summer crop – remains steady at 4.8%. Sowing declined the most for rice, followed by pulses and oilseeds. “The first advance estimates show rice production likely to be 6.8mn tons lower than in 2021. We will continue to monitor the government's measures to regulate the supply and demand balance in this area through procurement and other actions. Separately, the reservoir level is at 108% of the 2021 level, which is likely to support the winter cropping season,” the report said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/two-in-three-ceos-in-india-expect-a-recession-in-12-months-says-survey/articleshow/94934951.cms">Two in three CEOs in India expect a recession in 12 months says survey</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indians-above-40-are-feeling-younger-healthier-than-gen-z-millennials-report/articleshow/94918231.cms">Indians above 40 are feeling younger &amp; healthier than Gen Z, millennials - report</a>

You Searched For "improved monsoon" and got 11 results

Auto Industry sales to surge on the back of improved monsoon, festive season demands: Report

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Monsoon projections to ensure India's GDP growth forecast remains at 7% for FY'25: Asian Development Bank

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Here's a quick overview of PM Modi 3.0 government's first budget, to be presented by FM Nirmala Sitharaman today

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US outlook improves for Indian pharma but domestic market under the cloud

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Heatwave followed by a delayed monsoon is drying up India’s reservoirs that provide drinking water

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SIMPLY PUT: extreme weather is the new normal in India

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Rural recovery underway says Morgan Stanley

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