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In January, Jon Bach got laid off as a director at eBay, where he had worked for 13 years. He loved his job, so he was disappointed. But he didn't panic. The unemployment rate was near a five-decade low, and he had 30 years of experience in the tech industry. How hard could it be to find another job?Pretty hard, it turned out. After applying for 135 openings, Bach has received 91 nonresponses, 42 rejections, two callbacks — and zero offers. "I don't know what's going on," he says. "I've been doing this for a minute, and I've proven my value. And then you apply to one place, two places, 10 places, 50 places, 135 places. And you go, 'Am I the guy I think I am?'"By all the standard economic measures, America's labor market looks fine. But ask white-collar professionals who are actually looking for a job, and they'll tell you horror stories that are eerily similar to Bach's. As I wrote last spring, that's because the job market has essentially split into two distinct tiers. Even though hiring has held up well for lower-earning workers, it has plunged for people earning six figures or more. We're in the midst of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">white-collar recession</a>.Now, new data from LinkedIn — which tracked how often its users landed new jobs — shows which white-collar jobs are being hit the hardest. Some of them are the usual suspects in a downturn. You don't need recruiters when you're not recruiting, so hiring in human resources has slumped by 28% since 2018. Hiring in marketing, another department that's often the first to lose its budget in leaner times, is down 23%.But the most surprising feature of the job freeze is the pullback in tech. Hiring has plunged 27% in IT, 32% in quality assurance, and 23% in product management. In Bach's field of program and project management, recruitment has slumped 25%. Even more surprisingly, engineering, which was long considered recession-proof, is down 26%. That kind of cutback in coders was long unthinkable in Silicon Valley, which treated programmers like rare minerals — so scarce that they needed to be preserved at all costs, regardless of how the economy was faring.On the flip side are the professions that are holding up well. Military and protective services, a category that includes security guards, is down only 6%. Community and social services is down by only 3%. And healthcare, which is battling an acute staffing shortage fueled by an aging population and extraordinary levels of burnout on the front lines, is actually up 10%. You can see the same winners and losers on hiring platforms like Indeed: Since the pandemic, job postings for physicians and physical therapists have surged more than 80%, while those for software developers, data analysts, data scientists, and IT operations have declined by 20% or more."We have not seen the hiring slowdown everywhere," says Kory Kantenga, an economist at LinkedIn. "But there are particular areas where it's been very dramatic."Why has tech slammed the brakes on hiring? One reason is that tech companies, panicked by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-great-reshuffle-upward-mobility-quitting-jobs">Great Resignation</a> that followed the pandemic, hired way too many professionals — leaving them with a glut of staff when the economy hit the skids. LinkedIn, which compared recruitment in 2018 to 2022, found that post-pandemic hiring spiked 89% for product managers, 79% for HR professionals, and 43% for engineers. When employers realized that they'd gone overboard, some resorted to mass layoffs to slash their headcounts. But most have taken a gentler route, implementing hiring freezes to slowly shrink their ranks by voluntary attrition.Another reason tech companies are hiring fewer professionals is that their existing employees are opting to stay put. "One of the things we hear repeatedly is that candidates are looking for stability," says Jenny Diani, a senior director of global technical recruiting at Autodesk, a leading software provider. "Candidates are being much more careful." Visier, an HR software provider, reports that so far this year, voluntary turnover at its tech clients is under 20% — down from almost 27% in 2022. That means a company that wants to maintain a head count of 10,000 employees would need to hire 720 fewer professionals this year.AI may also be playing a role in the hiring freeze. With tools like ChatGPT enabling tech workers to complete tasks more quickly, employers may see less of a need to increase head count. Nowhere is this productivity gain more evident than in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-ai-technology-end-of-coding-software-developers-jobs-2023-4">coding</a>: In an early study of an AI coding copilot, AI-assisted programmers were 56% faster than programmers working alone. Google recently boasted that more than a quarter of its new code is now being <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-code-created-by-ai-2024-10">generated by AI</a>."It's not like you're going to lay off a whole team," says Jon Stross, a cofounder of Greenhouse, one of the biggest providers of hiring software. "But maybe we don't have to grow quite as fast because we can automate more things and be more efficient. My guess is there are folks who are trying to make that happen."To make matters worse, changes in the way companies hire people are making the job freeze feel even more terrible than the numbers indicate. Several job seekers I spoke with told me their searches have been "slow" — which is putting it mildly. In mid-2021, according to Greenhouse, it took its clients an average of 52 days to make a hire. In the first quarter of this year, searches were dragging out to 66 days.The slowdown in decision-making is a bit of a paradox. Given all the qualified candidates on the market right now, you'd think companies would have an easier time making a selection. But weirdly, the seemingly infinite supply of candidates makes them want to review even more applications before they make a decision. "In the recruiting world, we call it See More Disease," says Diani, who is juggling three times as many job applications at Autodesk as she did during the Great Resignation. "We really need to coach our managers that even in this market, people with highly qualified, in-demand skills aren't going to be sitting around forever."<div type="image" title="Dashboard with various summary stats of job seeker's job search" height="757" width="1209" msid="115416165" hostid="261" sizebytes="43790"></div>What shocks job seekers the most, though, is how many roles they have to apply for just to get a few measly callbacks. The 135 applications that Bach submitted might seem crazy high, but these days it's actually the new norm. Santiago Rodriguez, a data scientist, told me he had applied to 669 positions — so many that he built an <a target="_blank" href="https://job-search-cd9a22.gitlab.io/">online dashboard</a> to track his progress. Like the diligent statistician he is, he plans to analyze the data to see which versions of his résumé are generating a higher success rate.It doesn't help that job candidates, desperate to land a new role, are responding to the hiring slowdown by applying to every job in sight. LinkedIn has an "Easy Apply" button that makes it easy to flood the market with applications, and AI-powered services will even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-applications-hiring-ai-bots-spam-resume-cover-letter-2024-3">mass-apply to jobs</a> for you. It makes sense for individual job seekers to maximize their chances by applying widely. But the more everyone piles on, the harder it gets for anyone to stand out. In the first quarter of this year, job openings at Greenhouse's clients received an average of 222 applications — almost three times as many as at the end of 2021. "It's exacerbated by everyone in this arms race applying to so many jobs that companies are just overwhelmed with applicants," says Stross. "And so they don't get back to people."For job seekers, being ghosted makes the process feel downright dehumanizing. "There's so much angst," says Stross. "Like: 'I need a job and I can't get anybody to look at my résumé.'"The good news is, some data suggests that we're already past the worst of the white-collar recession. At the end of last year, according to the industry group CompTIA, companies posted only 144,000 new tech roles. That has now rebounded to 223,000 openings — and is starting to approach the pre-pandemic level of 322,000 jobs. "We're slowly, slowly recovering," says Art Zeile, the CEO of Dice, a tech job board. The hope is that in the new year, with the election over and a couple more interest-rate cuts under the economy's belt, white-collar employers will regain their appetite to start hiring again."I'm hopeful," Bach told me. "I think a lot of people like me are eager to get back to work, to show companies that we're worth taking a chance on. If you take a risk on me, I'll show you that I'm worth it."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/aki-ito">Aki Ito</a> is a chief correspondent at Business Insider.

Tech jobs are mired in a recession

<ul><li>The <keyword id="8194701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="refurbished-smartphone" source="Orion">refurbished smartphone</keyword> market has recorded rapid growth in India.</li><li>While the unorganised sellers dominate the market, the organised sellers are also growing.</li><li>Affordability and shorter upgrade cycles are among the factors fueling the refurbished smartphone market.</li></ul> India's refurbished smartphone market is experiencing significant growth, outpacing the new smartphone sector. This reflects a maturing market which is increasingly catering to consumers looking for affordable yet reliable options. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, unorganised sellers dominate the refurbished smartphone market, accounting for 77% of transactions. The Indian refurbished smartphone sector has traditionally been dominated by unorganised players, offering devices at a fraction of the cost of the new models. However, the introduction of value-added services like warranties, quality assurance, and after-sales support by emerging e-commerce platforms is beginning to formalise this market, enhancing consumer trust and driving further growth. <h2>What’s fueling the refurbished smartphone market</h2><h3>Affordability</h3><keyword id="2698558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="refurbished-smartphones" source="Orion">Refurbished smartphones</keyword> offer consumers access to higher-end hardware at lower costs, making premium technology more accessible to a broader audience. This aspect is particularly appealing in a price-sensitive market like India. <h3>Shorter upgrade cycles</h3>With technology evolving rapidly, many users prefer to upgrade their phones more frequently. Refurbished devices provide an avenue for this without the high cost associated with new purchases. <h3>Environmental impact</h3>There's a growing awareness of the environmental benefits of using refurbished products, which reduces electronic waste and the demand for new manufacturing, which is resource-intensive. <h3>Consumer confidence</h3>The entry of organised players who provide guarantees and quality checks on refurbished devices has significantly boosted consumer confidence. These services add a layer of reliability to what was once a market fraught with uncertainty about product condition and longevity. Despite the growth in the unorganised sector, there's a noticeable trend towards formalisation. E-commerce platforms specialising in refurbished goods are expanding, providing consumers with the convenience of online shopping backed by credible service commitments. The report also notes that this growth is not just contained within India. Globally, the refurbished smartphone market is on an upward trajectory, with similar trends observed in markets like Latin America, suggesting a broader international shift towards sustainable consumption in electronics. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/moto-g35-5g-with-120hz-5000mah-battery-launched-at-9999/articleshow/116172283.cms">Moto G35 5G with 120Hz display, 5,000mAh battery launched at ₹9,999</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/redmi-note-14-pro-and-redmi-note-14-pro-launched-in-india-starting-at-24999/articleshow/116134415.cms">Redmi Note 14 Pro and Redmi Note 14 Pro+ launched in India starting at ₹24,999</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/vivo-x200-and-x200-pro-camera-centric-to-launch-in-india-on-december-12/articleshow/115930004.cms">Vivo X200 and X200 Pro camera-centric smartphones to launch in India on December 12</a>

India's refurbished smartphone market witnesses accelerated growth

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could fall into recession in 2025 under Trump's economic proposals, a major EU bank said.</li><li>The eurozone may fall from "sluggish growth into a full-blown recession," ING analysts wrote.</li></ul>The eurozone economy faces the possibility of a looming recession as tariffs promised by President-elect Trump look set to dampen growth, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/trump-wins-tax-cuts-come-with-a-cost/#a5">analysts at a Dutch bank.</a>"A looming new trade war could push the eurozone economy from sluggish growth into a full-blown recession," a team including James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, wrote in a note to clients.Trump pledged on the campaign trail to impose <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a fresh era</a> of trade tariffs, building on policies he enacted during his first term as president.He has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and a 10% blanket tariff on all other goods entering the US.While China was the primary focus of the tariffs the first time around, Europe could be in the firing line in Trump's second term.European Union economic growth is already struggling, and has lagged behind the US in recent years. The bloc expanded by 0.2% in the most recent quarter, compared to 0.7% growth in the US.The US is Europe's largest market for exports, particularly for industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods, so any tariffs could cause further pain. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-auto-giants-volkswagen-bmw-mercedes-struggle-sales-china-evs-2024-10">Germany's stuttering auto industry</a>, a crucial part of Europe's largest economy, could be particularly affected."The already struggling German economy, which heavily relies on trade with the US, would be particularly hard hit by tariffs on European automotive," ING's analysts wrote in a section of the note titled "Europe's worst economic nightmare comes true."Along with potential tariffs, ING's analysts said the prospect of Trump reducing US military support for Ukraine could also create a headwind for the European economy."Uncertainty about Trump's stance on Ukraine and NATO could undermine the recently stabilized economic confidence indicators across the eurozone," they wrote.There are also worries that if Trump <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">reduces financial aid to Ukraine</a>, Europe will be forced to allocate more spending to the conflict."Even though tariffs might not impact Europe until late 2025, the renewed uncertainty and trade war fears could drive the eurozone economy into recession at the turn of the year," ING said.ING's view was echoed by Nigel Green, CEO of UK-based financial advisory firm deVere Group.He said Europe's economic challenges, including high energy costs, sluggish economic growth, and geopolitical instability, would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">only get worse in the event of a tariff battle with the US.</a>"A fresh trade war with the US under Trump's presidency could exacerbate these problems, destabilizing the region's economy further," Green said.

Europe faces a 'full-blown recession' under Trump's tariffs, big bank says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Business Insider spoke to five experts about what a Trump and Harris presidency would bring for AI.</li><li>Neither has offered specifics on their AI policies, but Trump would likely ease back regulations.</li></ul>With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-political-divide-twitter-elon-musk-kamala-harris-2024-8">Silicon Valley executives</a> inserting themselves — and their wallets — into this year's presidential election, questions remain about how <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">former President Donald Trump</a> would tackle AI regulation should they win the White House in less than one week.Business Insider spoke to five experts with experience in government and the private sector about how each administration might regulate AI, which is evolving at breakneck speed and influencing nearly every factor of American life."There should be more attention paid to what the candidates do in the AI area, just because it's such an important space," Darrell West, a senior fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation at the nonpartisan Brookings Institute, told Business Insider. "But neither Trump nor Harris have been very detailed in outlining their policies. Neither has put out major position papers on the topic, so it's a little bit of a black box in terms of how each administration would handle AI.""It's a shame that we're a week away from an election and we don't have a detailed AI policy agenda from either candidate," John Bailey, a nonresident senior fellow at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute, saidThe experts anticipate that, broadly speaking, Trump will take a more deregulatory approach to technology and AI, whereas Harris will continue with the Biden administration's approach of regulation. There remains room a degree of uncertainty with either candidate, though, as each juggles the desires of their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">private sector supporters</a>.<h2 id="4254cad9-402b-4779-9f06-c89b327c70b8">The candidates differ over a recent key AI directive.</h2>Between calling AI <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ai-dangerous-still-posts-ai-memes-truth-social-x-2024-8">"very dangerous" </a>and sharing AI-generated images of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-taylor-swift-image-shared-made-others-ai-very-dangerous-2024-8">Taylor Swift</a>, Trump hasn't offered many details on how he'd regulate the technology. He has, however, committed to rolling back a sweeping <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-advisor-catching-up-on-ai-biden-executive-order-2023-10">executive order that President Joe Biden</a> issued in October, 2023 regarding AI regulation.The wide-reaching order generated significant political backlash, as some conservatives argued that certain provisions constituted government overreach and would hinder innovation. Supporters generally argue that regulation is necessary to ensure safety in the industry."The sticking point was really over the idea that we would create this big, monolithic AI regulation, not that we would create regulation at all, because there's already regulation around AI in those regulated industries," said Nicholas Reese, an adjunct professor at New York University and the Director of Emerging Technology at the Department of Homeland Security from 2019-2023."It was inclusive of certain perspectives and communities who helped shape it, but it did not reflect a lot of center-right thinking," Bailey told BI.In late October of this year, the Biden administration published a national security memorandum telling the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to ramp up their use of AI. Earlier in the month, Biden's team issued guidance over how federal agencies overall should effectively use AI while appropriately contending with risk.Megan Shahi, Director of Technology Policy at the liberal think tank the Center for American Progress, called the executive order "a good first step." Oren Etzioni, the founder of a nonprofit fighting political deepfakes and the former CEO of the Allen Institute on AI, thinks that the order is well-intentioned, but potentially too heavy-handed. "I think that regulating a fast moving technology is challenging, and I would say that it's well intentioned, but the road to regulatory hell is paved with good intentions," Etzioni said.<h2 id="433b3791-3da2-4962-be9f-71fedfb9fe6a">Trump would take a more hands-off approach to AI — but his immigration policies could end up impacting the sector.</h2>Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">inscribed his promise</a> to get rid of the order into the Republican party platform, which reads in part: "We will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology."Other than that, Trump hasn't offered many details on his plans for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-influence-election-trump-harris-2024-10">AI policy</a> and his campaign did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment. Reese anticipates that he would repeal the new National Security Memorandum as well, but both he and Bailey said it's unclear what he would replace it with. The uncertainty could, Reese said, cause confusion among innovators."I haven't seen any other concrete policies on this, which tells me probably that they're not going to put forth a comprehensive AI strategy," said Shahi. She said that Trump hasn't committed to much regulation in any direction, and Etzioni described him as "pro-deregulation."As president, Trump didn't spend a lot of time talking about AI, but did sign his own executive order in 2019 that instructed federal agencies to prioritize <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-electric-vehicles-elon-musk-endorsement-2024-8">researching the technology</a> — Bailey described the order as "overlooked and under-appreciated."Reese worked at the Department of Homeland Security during the final year of the Trump administration."When I worked under the Trump administration, there was actually quite a bit of activity, they were very active," he said. "And especially on AI, they were doing things that would be pretty hard to argue over, like creating a list of trustworthy principles for trustworthiness and AI." He described that administration's approach as "incremental."Etzioni said the former president's impact on AI extended beyond narrow policy and that the same could go for another Trump term. In particular, he thinks that the immigration of skilled workers is crucial in the AI race against China, which Trump's immigration policies threaten."The impact on business is nuanced, but I think that it's trumped by the impact of the country," Etzioni said. "If Trump ends up being the agent of chaos that many of us anticipate he will be, that'll have the biggest impact on AI, more so than specific policies."<h2 id="22809d1a-7ad4-4a52-9d01-aaf471dd7cf4">Harris would build on Biden's executive order and likely maintain his overall approach to the AI industry.</h2>With her California roots and deep ties to the tech industry — her brother-in-law <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-west-wall-street-kamala-harris-cabinet-treasury-2024-10">Tony West is an executive at Uber </a>— Harris played a significant role in the Biden administration's efforts on AI. She met with the leaders of tech companies, helped introduce memos on AI use in the federal government, and represented the administration at a global summit on AI safety, which she flags on her campaign website.After Biden took office, Reese said that the work on AI policy eventually became more ambitious than it had been under Trump."It felt like the major difference was that the Biden administration tried to pursue bigger pieces of policy," he told BI.When asked for comment, the Harris campaign directed Business Insider to the vice president's policy handbook, which specifies Harris' intention to honor Biden's executive order and includes plans for an "America Forward" strategy that focuses in part on strengthening AI technology. The <a target="_blank" href="https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf">policy book </a>also outlines a plan to scale up the National AI Research Resource, which supports startups and researchers.The experts that Business Insider spoke to don't know precisely what Harris would do as president. They all anticipate that she would take an approach generally consistent with Biden. Shahi said that Biden provided "a straightforward foundation to build on," but doesn't think that AI is necessarily a day one priority."I think that a Harris administration is likely going to take this kind of much more linear, much more predictable path that is based on a lot of the existing corpus of AI policies, like the National AI research resource," Reese said, describing such continuity as the healthiest approach.Whether Trump or Harris wins the White House, Etzioni and Bailey said that having <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-sec-ftc-khan-gensler-crypto-regulation-biden-warren-2024-9">AI experts in the administration</a> is crucial. Among the few upsides Bailey sees to Biden's executive order is the call to have agencies appoint AI directors."The bottom line is that neither of them is an AI expert, so it's a question of who they would hire," Etzioni said of the candidates.<h2 id="1e24d451-c0f3-45bd-a9d9-1f2ca945c4f1"></h2>

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact the future of AI

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is facing the mounting risk of stagflation, a think tank tied to the Kremlin said.</li><li>The nation's high interest rates will trigger an economic a downturn while inflation remains high, TsMAKP said.</li></ul>Moscow's failed attempt to stamp out inflation is driving the country towards its worst-case economic scenario, according to a Russian think tank tied to the government.On Wednesday, TsMAKP condemned Russia's tight monetary policy, warning that high interest rates will trigger an economic downturn. With inflation still running hot, that could create a nightmare outcome for Kremlin officials: stagflation."As a result of the central bank's actions, the Russian economy is effectively facing the threat of stagflation — simultaneous stagnation or even recession and high inflation," the government advising think tank said, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-government-economists-blame-central-bank-plunging-russia-into-stagflation-2024-11-13/">translated by Reuters</a>.This scenario, where growth is low and inflation high, is most feared by any central bank.Stagflation is harder to escape than a recession. When an economy typically slows down, central banks can loosen interest rates to revive activity. But that option disappears if inflation keeps rising: interest rates must stay high to cool price growth.Put simply, the Kremlin's hands appear to be tied.Russia's central bank has already sensed the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">looming risk of stagflation</a>, citing that price growth remained stubbornly high in the first half of 2024 despite cooling domestic demand.To that end, the bank elected to raise Russia's key interest rate to a record high of 21% last month, and indicated more to come.So far, however, high interest rates have shown limited impact on Russia's inflation rate, which hit 8.63% in September. Though annual inflation slowed to <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1871947">8.54% in October,</a> food prices continue to soar. That includes Russian staples such as the potato, which is up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-potatoes-butter-central-bank-interest-rates-putin-2024-11">64% this year</a>, as of November 5th.Russian prices may seem largely indifferent to tight monetary policy, but the country's business leaders are not. Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of the country's defense conglomerate Rostec, warned that record interest rates were costing businesses profitability, and would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-defense-sector-on-overdrive-but-firms-warn-of-collapse-2024-11">trigger nationwide bankruptcies</a>."The current high level of the key interest rate and the indicated prospects for further increases have created a risk of economic downturn and a collapse in investments in the near future," TsMAKP said.With the central bank now operating in the shadow of stagflation, the worst may still be ahead. Data released on Wednesday showed that Russia's economy slumped 3.1% year-over-year in the last quarter."We think that year-on-year GDP growth will probably slow further over the coming quarters as war-related constraints on the economy continue to act as a limit on activity, and monetary tightening weighs more heavily on domestic demand," Capital Economics wrote on Wednesday But with inflation likely to remain elevated, the central bank will probably tighten monetary policy further."The research firm expects Russia's central bank to hike the key interest rate to 22% next month.

Russia's economy is heading toward a fate worse than recession, pro-Kremlin economists say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments.</li></ul>Peter Berezin, the chief global strategist for BCA Research, said the chances of a US recession have jumped since President-elect Donald Trump's win last week.In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump."The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump's agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, the odds of a recession have risen," Berezin said.On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported</a> into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China.Berezin said those tariffs would likely depress corporate investment and lower real household disposable income for consumers, representing a double economic whammy.Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.Some have argued that Trump's tariff proposals are empty threats meant to to get leverage when negotiating with other countries, but Berezin isn't so sure."Whether Trump carries out these threats is open for debate. The consensus view among market participants is that, for the most part, he will not. Once again, I suspect the consensus is too optimistic," Berezin said.And while Trump's proposed tax cuts, if passed, could boost the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> earnings per share by 4%, that's less than the 5% gain the index has seen in the past week, Berezin highlighted, suggesting that those potential tax cuts are already priced into the market.Berezin is also worried about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">the surge in interest rates since Trump's election win,</a> arguing that they're at "restrictive levels" that would put downward pressure on economic growth."The weak state of the housing market is screaming at investors that monetary policy is restrictive," Berezin said, highlighting the marked slowdown in housing sales activity.All of these factors lead Berezin to take a bearish view on the stock market going forward."Taken together, these considerations lead us to recommend a modest underweight on stocks," Berezin said, adding that he plans to move to a "max underweight" recommendation "once clearer evidence of a recession emerges."

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