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<ul class="summary-list"><li>A handful of climate projections are predicting much higher rise in global temperatures than scientists have seen in the models before.</li><li>While there's concern over the number, some scientists hope the latest projections are outliers. </li><li>A 2-degree rise in temperature could lead sea level to jump, coral reefs to die, and water to become dangerously scarce in some parts of the world. Some models right now predict a 5-degree rise.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>Several recent climate models have suggested the Earth's climate could warm to a far higher temperature than scientists previously predicted, according to a report from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-t-know-why">Bloomberg</a>. </p><p>The startling anomaly first appeared in models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which suggested that if Earth's atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration doubles (as it's expected to do by the end of the century), the planet could wind up 5.3 degrees hotter. That's 33% higher than the group's previous estimate.</p><p>About a fifth of new climate-model results published in the past year have indicated similarly stark global temperature spikes, according to Bloomberg. The UK-based Met Office Hadley Center predicted a 5.5 degrees of warming, the US Department of Energy calculated a 5.3°-degree jump, French scientists estimated a 4.9-degree increase, and a model from Canadian scientists predicted the largest rise: 5.6 degrees </p><p>Scientists hope the models are an "overshot," Bloomberg reported. It will take scientists a significant amount time - at least months - to figure out how to interpret the results. </p><p>The climate models estimate "climate sensitivity," which tells scientists how much warmer the planet will get as a result of rising CO₂ concentrations. For four decades, the expected temperature rise if CO2 levels double has been about 3 degrees. </p><p>These models have a proven track record of accurately forecasting climate change.  A <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085378">recent study</a> from the American Geophysical Union found that climate projections over the past five decades have largely been accurate - actual climate observations aligned with the models' predictions. </p><p>Still, there's a hope among climate scientists that the new projections are outliers. About a dozen other models are still due to be released, Bloomberg reported, and they could help paint a clearer picture.</p><p>"We hope it's not the right answer," Klaus Wyser, a senior researcher at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute told Bloomberg. </p><p>In the 2015 <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pulling-us-out-paris-climate-agreement-2019-10">Paris climate agreement</a> - from which President Donald Trump has started to withdraw the US -countries pledged to reduce carbon emissions in order to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees. It also established a more ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, but that's likely now out of reach given that the planet has already warmed by about 1 degree.</p><p>If global temperatures <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-will-happen-if-earth-warms-by-two-degrees-celsius-2017-11">rise by 2 degrees</a>, models predict, sea levels would get 1.6 feet higher, global heatwaves would become far more common, and subtropical areas could lose a third of their supply of fresh water. Nearly all aquatic life in oceans worldwide would be impacted; 99% of coral reefs could die. </p>

A few climate models are now predicting an unprecedented and alarming spike in temperatures - perhaps as much as 5 degrees Celsius

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Xinhua</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Thunderstorms are getting stronger and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/harvey-rain-rainfall-break-record-2017-8">dumping more water on us</a> as the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/climate-may-be-15-warmer-than-previously-thought-by-2100-2017-12">atmosphere heats up</a>.</strong></li><li><strong>Conservative scientific models predict a 300% increase in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mortality-rates-climate-change-usa-2017-6">heavy rainfall across the US</a> by the end of this century.</strong></li><li><strong>"Water bomb" storms that bring huge amounts of wind and water are becoming more frequent too, which means we could see <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-has-already-been-hit-with-9-other-billion-dollar-natural-disasters-in-2017-so-far-2017-8">more costly property damage</a>.</strong></li></ul><p> </p><p>If it seems like the rain has been non-stop this spring, you're not imagining things.</p><p>In Seattle, it's been <a href="http://knkx.org/post/feel-it-s-colder-and-wetter-normal-spring-you-re-right">30-40% rainier</a> than normal, and locations on the Eastern seaboard from Miami to Washington DC have been pummeled with <a href="https://water.weather.gov/precip/">more than 10 inches of rain</a> in the past 30 days - roughly double the norm.</p><p>Researchers have found that when the sky opens up these days, it is <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing">dumping more water</a> on all of us. <span>Peak rain rates, which arrive </span>when the fierce core of a storm is overhead, <span>have increased 30% over the past 60 years, according to project scientist Andreas Prein from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). </span></p><p><span>Heavy, damaging storms are also becoming more frequent and more likely to flood people out of their homes - during those peak times, upwards of 4 inches of rain can fall per hour in some cases. </span></p><p><span>"The bigger the storm, the better for flooding," Prein said.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Simon Kwong</span></p><p class="caption">A motorcyclist stops in front of a overflowing sewer grate after finding his path blocked by flooding in Taipei's city centre on September 17, 2001.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>This phenomenon is directly linked to what humans are doing on the ground: burning fossil fuels, which funnels <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page5.php?src=share">carbon dioxide</a> into the air, leading Earth's average temperature to rise.</p><p>"Precipitation responds to global warming by increasing," Angeline Pendergrass, a project scientist at <span>UCAR, </span>said at a conference for journalists last week.</p><h2>We're the ones making it rain</h2><p>As people <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/african-policy-makers-seek-reduce-pollution-clean-air-benefits-and">create pollutants that throw off the atmosphere's delicate balance</a>, those greenhouse gases trap more of the sun's heat, which raises the planet's temperature.</p><p>Increased precipitation is a side effect of that process, kind of like a feverish sweat: the hotter the atmosphere gets, the easier it is for evaporation to occur on the surface of the Earth. More water evaporating and forming clouds leads to more precipitation. Warmer air can also hold more water, which prompts heavier rains and more summer floods. </p><p>"A future storm might cause a much, much bigger flood because it produces so much more water," Prein said.</p><p>Scientists call this trend an intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The phenomenon has already made US storms between <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-season-forecast-2018-storms-could-move-inland-2018-6">10% and 70%</a> wetter than they used to be, which is much higher than the roughly 7% atmospheric moisture increase that Prein's scientific models predicted.</p><p>Mari Tye, who studies weather extremes at <span>UCAR, estimates that t</span>he damage from more intense thunderstorms totaled to $145 billion dollars in the US last year, rivaling the <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/hurricane-costs.html">$125 billion cost of Hurricane Harvey</a>.</p><p>Just two days of storms across the Midwest in November 2017 created a total of $275 million worth of damage, according to <a href="http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20171207-ab-analytics-if-november-global-recap.pdf">Aon Benfield</a> analytics. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>BI Graphics</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>As the globe's temperature <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php">continues to heat up</a>, that intensification will likely continue.</p><p>"Over a city, this can be very devastating," Prein said. </p><p>But while wet places get wetter, dry places will continue to get drier. And when rain does hit those spots, there's a higher risk of catastrophic flooding because the ground will be more dry and impermeable to water.</p><p>The Earth's temperature is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">on track to rise</a> several more degrees before 2100, so we can expect to get caught in more wet, damaging storms more frequently.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-an-atmospheric-river-california-2017-10">An 'atmospheric river' is about to dump a ton of rain and snow on the West Coast - here's what an atmospheric river actually is</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Rainstorms are now up to 70% stronger and wetter than they were in the 1950s - and this is only the beginning

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Apple is facing opposition for a new €850 million (£677 million) data centre on the west coast of Ireland from a golf club that dates back to 1902.</p><p>Athenry Golf Club appealed Galway County Council's decision to let Apple construct a new data centre on a plot of land approximately one kilometre from its course, according to documents available through the council's website. The golf club wrote its appeal on October 5 2015.</p><p>Apple <a href="http://connachttribune.ie/apple-plants-seeds-massive-galway-data-centre-048/" target="_blank">filed a planning application</a> to build a 263,000 square foot data centre hall in the middle of Derrydonnell Forest next to the golf course last April. Apple only sought planning permission for one data centre hall but it envisions building up to eight in a phased approach taking at least 15 years to complete. Apple would have to reapply for planning permission each time it wants to build a new data hall.</p><p>Martin Hynes, chairperson of Athenry Golf Club, and John O'Beirn, treasurer of Athenry Golf Club, write in their appeal: "Our primary concern is the totality of the proposed development, especially the extent of the proposed masterplan, and the potential this has to alter the hydrology of the local area and potentially increase the frequency and duration of flooding already experienced at the golf club."</p><p>The golf club paid €220 (£175) to file the appeal with An Bord Pleanála - an independent planning group that decides on appeals from planning decisions made by local authorities in Ireland.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Apple</span></p><p class="caption">A computer generated image of the data centre halls.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>In the complaint, Hynes and O'Beirn claim that Apple did not carry out works to deal with possible flooding issues that could arise from the development of the data centre, as the council said it had when it granted Apple planning permission.</p><p>Hynes and O'Beirn also stated that if the data centre build does go ahead, then they would rather construction work is "curtailed on Saturdays as this is our busiest day on the course." They added: "We would also request that due consideration is provided for in the planning consent conditions to facilitate certain key competitions."</p><p>Apple wants to use the data centre - which would be situated in the middle of Derrydonnell Forest near a small town called Athenry, in County Galway - to store European user data and to help power online services including the iTunes Store, the App Store, iMessage, Maps, and Siri for customers across Europe, <a href="https://www.apple.com/uk/pr/library/2015/02/23Apple-to-Invest-1-7-Billion-in-New-European-Data-Centres.html" target="_blank">according to a press release</a>.</p><p>On the issue of flooding, Apple's "Environmental Impact Statement" states:</p><p>County Galway Council granted Apple planning permission for a single data hall last September, despite receiving complaints from 20-25 parties. Complainants argued that the data centre would increase noise and light pollution, flooding, and traffic. Some also said it would act as an eyesore and <a href="http://connachttribune.ie/residents-appeal-apple-data-centre-plans-404/" target="_blank">others said it would harm the local badger and bat populations</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Apple Maps/Skitch</span></p><p class="caption">An annotated map showing the golf course and the proposed data centre.</p></div><p></p></div></div><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Sam Shead</span></p><p class="caption">A hole that borders the forest Apple wants to build a data centre in.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>County Galway Council</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Several follow up appeals, including that of the golf club, were then made to An Bord Pleanála. An An Bord Pleanála committee of 10-12 experts (including architects, environmentalists, and planners) is currently looking over the complaints and is due to issue a response in May at the earliest. It was initially due to pass a decision in February but it said it had not received enough information from Apple to make a decision.</p><p>Apple was initially hoping the data centre would begin operations at some point in 2017 but the setbacks suggest a later start date may be on the cards.</p><p>Some 5,500 of Apple's 18,300 European staff are based in Ireland, which is also home to its European headquarters. The company plans to hire an additional 1,000 staff in Ireland before 2017.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>County Galway Council</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Google, Microsoft, and <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/" target="_blank" title="" data-skimwords-id="1974447" data-skimlinks-editor="0" data-skimwords-word="amazon" data-group-id="0" data-skim-creative="300001" data-skim-product="1974447" data-skim-node-id="74:Google,Microsoft,and_1">Amazon</a> have built data centres in Ireland, while <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/facebook-submits-planning-permission-200-million-euro-data-centre-clonee-ireland-meath-2015-6" target="_blank">Facebook also has one planned</a>. Many of those companies have based their European headquarters in the country, which offers a lower corporation tax rate than other European nations.</p><p>Elsewhere in Europe, Apple is planning to build a data centre in Denmark on the same scale as the one in Ireland. The company does not reveal where all of its data centres are but reports suggest Apple also has data centre facilities in Newark, Santa Clara, and Cupertino on the west coast of the US, as well one in Maiden on the east coast.</p><p>Apple declined to comment.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mit-city-lab-traffic-model-2016-3">Scientists came up with an intersection model that would eliminate traffic lights</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="B2b3hnMjE6ar3xNFqO0BVGECM9C9qpXR" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

A golf club is concerned that Apple's new Irish data centre will flood its fairways

An indigenous tribe in Washington is strategically placing beavers around to help salmon

You Searched For "hydrological modelling" and got 4 results

A few climate models are now predicting an unprecedented and alarming spike in temperatures - perhaps as much as 5 degrees Celsius

Connor Perrett,Connor Perrett

Rainstorms are now up to 70% stronger and wetter than they were in the 1950s - and this is only the beginning

Hilary Brueck

A golf club is concerned that Apple's new Irish data centre will flood its fairways

Sam Shead

An indigenous tribe in Washington is strategically placing beavers around to help salmon

Ben Goldfarb, bioGraphic

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