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Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

Markets regulator <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sebi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Sebi" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Sebi">SEBI</keyword> has asked the <keyword id="20677983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-fund-industry" source="keywords">mutual fund industry</keyword> to proactively conduct stress tests, a key component of <keyword id="20383727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="risk-management" source="keywords">risk management</keyword> for the financial sector, which will help strengthen the ecosystem, its whole-time member Ananth Narayan Gopalakrishnan said on Friday. The regulator's stress testing emphasizes the need to assess and manage liquidity risks, especially in small and midcap equity schemes. Speaking at a mutual fund event, Gopalakrishnan highlighted the importance of modelling stress scenarios not just for individual schemes or fund houses, but for the entire mutual fund ecosystem. "It is also important to model stress scenarios for the entire composite mutual fund ecosystem. I would strongly encourage the industry and <keyword id="20090036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="AMFI" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="AMFI">AMFI</keyword> to take the lead and proactively conduct objective and credible industry wide stress tests. themselves," Gopalakrishnan said. He also emphasized the need to find better ways to communicate the risks associated with different mutual fund schemes. The SEBI official mentioned that while the current risk measurement system is straightforward and has had a significant impact, it doesn't fully capture the differences in risks among various investment schemes. According to him, many schemes are just labelled as high risk, even though they have different kinds of risks. The goal is to improve this system to better reflect those differences, while keeping it simple and easy to understand. One possible approach is to consider the portfolio's volatility and liquidity from stress tests to give a clearer picture. "While ensuring simplicity and ease of understanding remains a key objective, perhaps the underlying volatility of the portfolio along with the liquidity of the portfolio from stress tests could be used to provide better colour all around," he added. This comes at a time when the holdings of mutual funds by <keyword id="20234284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-institutional-investors" source="keywords">Domestic Institutional Investors</keyword> (DIIs) and individuals have risen from about 54.3% of free float of all mid cap and small cap companies, as of March 2020 to 60.6% as of March 2024. Several fund houses have proactively stopped lump sum investments in some small-cap schemes and also capped the amount that can be invested through <keyword id="20675888" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="systematic-investment-plan" source="keywords">Systematic Investment Plan</keyword> (SIP) into small-cap schemes. He also highlighted the potential mismatch between the demand for paper and the supply of fresh paper coming into the ecosystem. Gopalakrishnan said the industry can make more progress in streamlining operations and improving efficiency for investors. "At a time when instantaneous fund transfers have become ubiquitous in our country, perhaps we should look to improve our internal processes and the security settlement ecosystem, to ensure that funds are passed on to investors on the day of the settlement itself, rather than a day after or two days after," he added. Over the last few years, the mutual fund industry has made impressive strides, and is now playing a crucial role in channeling financial savings towards risk capital formation. This was driven by stable macros, increased formalization, robust corporate earnings, digitisation and user friendly access. Moreover, the number of mutual fund investors has grown significantly from about 2 crore as of March 2019 to nearly 4.7 crore as of June 2024, an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 18% during that period. Gopalakrishnan mentioned that several exciting initiatives are in the works, developed with input from all stakeholders. These include a proposed low-ticket SIP, further breaking down regular SIPs into smaller, more accessible units (sachetisation and tokenization), and the introduction of "mutual funds lite" regulations. These new regulations will simplify rules for passively managed funds, reducing the compliance burden and encouraging competition and innovation. Additionally, a new class of higher-risk schemes is proposed for investors with a greater capacity to handle risk.

SEBI asks mutual fund industry to proactively conduct stress test

The Comptroller and Auditor General (<keyword id="19900713" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CAG" source="keywords">CAG</keyword>) has asked the <keyword id="19900485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Ministry" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Finance Ministry" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Finance Ministry">Finance Ministry</keyword> to identify <keyword id="22837132" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="high-risk-taxpayers" source="keywords">high risk taxpayers</keyword> in the <keyword id="20981418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GST-composition-scheme" source="keywords">GST composition scheme</keyword> on a periodical basis and verify from other sources, including third parties, their declared <keyword id="22837745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="value-of-sales" source="keywords">value of sales</keyword> to check <keyword id="20121097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-evasion" source="keywords">tax evasion</keyword>. Based on an analysis of 8.66 lakh composition taxpayers under the central jurisdiction between 2019-20 to 2021-22 fiscals, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) found that a significant number of <keyword id="19951327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gst" source="keywords">GST</keyword> taxpayers have a high risk of crossing the <keyword id="22837744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="turnover-threshold" source="keywords">turnover threshold</keyword> for composition levy scheme (CLS). These high risk taxpayers were identified by audit from the data contained in GST returns viz. GSTR-4A, GSTR-7 along with third party data sources such as IT returns, 'Vahan' database etc. The GST composition scheme is available to taxpayers whose aggregate turnover, in the preceding financial year, has not exceeded Rs 1.5 crore. For taxpayers in special category states, this limit is Rs 75 lakh. The CAG said two major risk areas in respect of CLS taxpayers are under-declaration of the 'value of outward supply' by the taxpayers to continue in the scheme; and non-fulfillment of eligibility conditions for availing CLS. The audit also observed that there were certain CLS taxpayers who were continuing in the Scheme despite not fulfilling the eligibility criteria prescribed in the Act and the Rules, and a substantial number of CLS taxpayers were not discharging their obligatory responsibilities of filing returns and payment of tax under reverse charge. "The Ministry should identify high risk taxpayers in the CLS on a periodical basis using a risk-based approach and verify their declared value of outward supply from other sources including third parties to minimize the possibility of misuse by ineligible persons," the CAG said in a report tabled in Parliament recently. The official auditor also suggested that the Finance Ministry may develop a system of identifying ineligible taxpayers and take action to exclude them from the CLS in order to prevent misuse of the intended benefits of the scheme.

Finance Ministry should identify high risk taxpayers in GST composition scheme: CAG

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars into tech overseas in recent years.</li><li>The kingdom is now looking for overseas tech companies to invest in it, according to Bloomberg. </li></ul>In his ascendance to power, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-mbs-2023-10">Mohammed bin Salman</a> spent years investing Saudi Arabia's oil money in the global tech sector. The crown prince's kingdom appears to be ready for some of that favor to be returned.Rather than prioritizing investments in overseas tech companies, Saudi Arabia is looking to them to bring investment and resources to the Middle East as it seeks to capitalize on the AI boom and become a force of its own in the rapidly growing sector.The latest signs of this shift came on Wednesday after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/saudis-plan-100-billion-ai-powerhouse-to-rival-uae-s-tech-hub">Bloomberg reported</a> that Saudi Arabia had plans for an up to $100 billion AI project that aims to not only prioritize the local tech industry but also encourage large tech companies to "put resources in the country.""Project Transcendence," as it is known, aims to make Saudi Arabia a place with all the components needed to advance AI: data centers housing the GPUs that train and run AI models, well-resourced startups at the cutting edge of innovation, and a globally sourced talent pool. According to the Bloomberg report, it also aims to build a "national champion" in AI. The crown prince, known as MBS, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ai.sa/">initiated a national AI strategy in 2020,</a> well before the current boom. But several factors have emerged since then for his nation to think hard about what it can do to accelerate the development of a resilient AI industry at home — and who it can get some help from.<div type="image" title="MBS" height="3043" width="4300" msid="115061833" hostid="261" sizebytes="382254"></div>One reason is that there has been an investment step-up in AI since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-chat-gpt-2023-1">launch of ChatGPT</a> in late 2022, raising the stakes for Saudi Arabia as it battles neighboring rivals like the UAE for regional supremacy. Emirati state Abu Dhabi, for instance, is home to G42, a domestic company with an advanced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/meet-jais-worlds-most-advanced-arabic-llm-open-sourced-g42s-inception">Arabic large language model</a>. It has also attracted $1.5 billion of investment from Microsoft. Bloomberg's report said Saudi Arabia planned to build its own version of G42.Another reason is weakening oil demand, a resource that has made the kingdom the central economic force of the Middle East for the better part of a century.An <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/09/03/Saudi-Arabia-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Informational-Annex-554530">IMF report in September</a> highlighted the ongoing decline in the country's oil revenue as the calendar speeds through to 2030; a decade-high of 857 billion riyals in 2022 ($228 billion) is projected to fall to 778 billion riyals ($207.1 billion) by 2029. Signs of weakening demand showed themselves this week, too, as state-owned oil giant <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aramco.com/-/media/publications/corporate-reports/reports-and-presentations/2024/q3/saudi-aramco-q3-2024-interim-report-english.pdf">Saudi Aramco reported a 15.3% year-on-year decrease</a> in third-quarter net income from $32.6 billion to $27.6 billion.Diversification away from oil has been a front-and-center issue for the kingdom's leaders for some time. It is a central focus of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-vision-2030-projects-trillion-value-neom-2024-9">grand Vision 2030 project MBS launched in 2016</a>, which includes mega-infrastructure projects like Neom. It is also a top priority for decision-makers at the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's giant sovereign wealth fund.The fund — chaired by MBS — has served as a crucial diversification tool for Saudi Arabia, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-public-investment-fund-global-investment-spree-2024-8">leading an investment charge into top tech names</a> like Uber and SoftBank's first Vision Fund, a venture capital vehicle that bet on over 90 companies with $45 billion from the Saudis. The kingdom doesn't seem to want to keep up the pace of overseas spending it has previously had, however.Last month, PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan told attendees of the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh that the fund was preparing to allocate just 18 to 20% of its capital to overseas opportunities, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/5004fbc6-23e2-4b9f-9885-14e1ea724ce2">the Financial Times reported</a>. That's a notable drop from the 30% allocated at the start of the decade.Overseas investment in AI looks set to continue, though. In March, The New York Times reported that the PIF was in early talks with Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/business/saudi-arabia-investment-artificial-intelligence.html">$40 billion AI fund.</a> Should that materialize, it would be a significant force in the global AI investment space. <div type="image" title="Yasir al-Rumayyan" height="852" width="1093" msid="115061832" hostid="261" sizebytes="47602"></div>It remains to be seen how Project Transcendence might play out, but it could lead to Saudi Arabia announcing new developments, companies, and projects alongside key names from beyond its borders to bolster its AI activity at home.There are already examples of the country turning to overseas tech companies. California-based AI company Groq, for instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://groq.com/unleashing-the-power-of-fast-ai-inference-groq-and-aramco-digital-partner-to-establish-world-leading-data-center/">unveiled a partnership</a> with an arm of Saudi Aramco in September that will oversee the development of an AI data center in the country. In October, Google Cloud and the PIF announced a partnership to develop an AI hub in the kingdom that, if approved, would see the two conduct joint research on Arabic language models and train "millions" of students and professionals.Saudi Arabia will want others to work with it, too, as it gets serious about becoming the Middle East's main stage for AI.

Saudi Arabia spent years investing in global tech firms. Its domestic AI push hopes they'll return the favor.

<keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">Investment</keyword> in <keyword id="20300870" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="keywords">equity mutual funds</keyword> surged over five-fold to Rs 94,151 crore in the June 2024 quarter against Rs 18,358 crore a year ago, driven by a strong <keyword id="21477327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-environment" source="keywords">economic environment</keyword>, supportive <keyword id="22575274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-fiscal-policies" source="keywords">government fiscal policies</keyword>, <keyword id="19900618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investors" source="keywords">investors</keyword> confidence and robust <keyword id="21990858" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-return" source="keywords">stock return</keyword>. This has also pushed the industry's assets under management (<keyword id="20019621" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AUM" source="keywords">AUM</keyword>) by 59 per cent to Rs 27.68 lakh crore in June from Rs 17.43 lakh crore a year ago, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (<keyword id="20090036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI" source="keywords">AMFI</keyword>) showed. The robust gain in the asset base was also replicated in the growth of investors in equity mutual funds, with the number of folios closing at 13.3 crore, adding an investor base of over 3 crore. The significant gain in equity folios indicates broader participation across investor segments, driven by improved <keyword id="19929245" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-literacy" source="keywords">financial literacy</keyword> and accessible investment platforms, Trivesh D, COO of stock trading platform Tradejini, told PTI. According to the AMFI data, equity-oriented mutual fund schemes invested Rs 94,151 crore in the quarter ended June 2024. This comprises Rs 18,917 crore in April, Rs 34,697 crore in May and Rs 40,537 crore in June. The investment in equity-oriented mutual funds jumped five-fold to Rs 94,151 crore in the June quarter from Rs 18,358 crore in the quarter ended June 2023 and increased 32 per cent Rs 71,280 crore witnessed in the preceding March 2024 quarter. "The confluence of political stability, supportive government policies, and a favourable economic environment has significantly contributed to the impressive inflows into equity mutual funds, signalling a positive outlook for the sector," Trivesh said. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals, bolstered by supportive government fiscal policies like higher-than-budgeted tax collection growth, reduced revenue expenditures, and increased capital spending have helped in increasing the allocation to equity mutual funds, Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth, told PTI. He further said that investors' confidence in the markets and historically strong returns given by Indian equities with relatively low risk also helped investors to move towards equity mutual funds. Additionally, the shift was further fuelled by a transition from traditional investments like deposits to mutual funds in pursuit of higher returns. "The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of 11-13 per cent annual returns for Indian equities, and equity mutual funds potentially delivering even higher returns," Azeez said. Within the equity segment, sectoral or thematic category attracted Rs 46,731 crore during the quarter under review, followed by Multi-cap (Rs 10,077 crore), Flexicap (Rs 8,387 crore), Large &amp; Midcaps (Rs 7,948 crore), Smallcap (Rs 7,197 crore) and Midcap (Rs 6,927 crore). Large-cap funds witnessed an infusion of Rs 1,991 crore during the April-June quarter of the current financial year (FY25). Moreover, inflows into the systematic investment plan (<keyword id="19956399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIP" source="keywords">SIP</keyword>) have been rising continuously for the past several months. The monthly SIP contributions crossed the Rs 21,000 crore mark in June, with the total inflow reaching an all-time high of Rs 21,262 crore. This shows investors' commitment to disciplined and long-term investing. The fund infusion through the SIP route was Rs 62,537 crore in the April-June quarter of FY25, a remarkable surge from Rs 43,211 crore in the same quarter preceding the fiscal.

Investment in equity mutual funds surge 5-fold to Rs 94,151 cr in June qtr amid robust eco environment

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors should favor stocks over bonds as the economy supports risk-on sentiment, Goldman analysts say.</li><li>The US economy is in a pro-risk, late-cycle environment due to Fed easing and a strong economy.</li></ul>Risk-on sentiment is back after a brief flight to safety over the summer, and that should support stocks over bonds in the coming months, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday. They write that the US stock market is set to deliver more attractive returns than bonds as the economy supports higher risk in a late-cycle environment.A late-cycle backdrop—in which the economy nears its peak and policy eases to prepare for potential slowing ahead—is typically pro-risk, unless growth momentum slows or inflation accelerates to spark policy tightening.The analysts say the reverse has been true in recent months amid accelerating growth and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">easing inflation</a> in the US, with strong economic data and policy easing fueling a more risk-supportive environment.In July, the analysts shifted their rating to neutral on stocks and raised their rating to neutral on bonds after bullish sentiment and slowing growth momentum sparked concerns of a correction, but stocks bounced back quickly, they noted."After the summer 'risk off', risky assets quickly recovered due to a dovish Fed pivot, China stimulus, and better-than-expected US data," the analysts said.The analysts have now returned equities to overweight and credit to underweight, explaining global equities now face lower risks."Global equities had a roundtrip and are roughly flat since. Better US data and supportive policy have helped lower downside risks near-term," they said.Fed cutting cycles in general tend to support risky assets as long as the economy avoids a recession, the analysts say. Recession risk appears low amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">strong labor market data</a> and the Fed's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1b7jz2v*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwMjgzNi4yNjkuMS4xNzI5MDAyOTM1LjM3LjAuMA..">jumbo 50 basis point rate cut</a> last month, with the odds of a recession in the next year down to just 15%, they forecast.This risk-on, late-cycle backdrop means stocks will benefit from higher earnings growth and valuations as bonds face downside risks, the analysts say."During late-cycle backdrops, equities can deliver attractive returns driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion, while credit total returns are usually constrained by tight credit spreads and rising yields," the analysts said.The analysts add that while the current environment supports more risky investments, there remains potential for volatility due to geopolitical conflicts, the US election season and unfavorable moves in growth and inflation.But even this uncertainty could boost risky assets, they say."We think that uncertainty relief could also support risky assets into year-end – this is why we prefer to be long with selective hedges rather than staying neutral equities," they said.

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Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

ANI

SEBI asks mutual fund industry to proactively conduct stress test

PTI

Finance Ministry should identify high risk taxpayers in GST composition scheme: CAG

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Saudi Arabia spent years investing in global tech firms. Its domestic AI push hopes they'll return the favor.

Hasan Chowdhury

Investment in equity mutual funds surge 5-fold to Rs 94,151 cr in June qtr amid robust eco environment

PTI

Stocks beat bonds as risk-on returns amid Fed easing and strong economic data, Goldman Sachs says

Kelly Cloonan

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