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By Lalit K Jha <p>Washington, May 12 () Observing that the coronavirus pandemic has shown the existing international system's limitations, India's envoy in the US has said that the world after COVID-19 needs a template of globalisation based on fairness, equality and humanity.</p><p>Economic growth and human welfare need to go hand in hand and there is a need to ensure equitable, affordable and timely access to health products and technologies for all, India's Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu said in a virtual interaction with Asia Group hosted by former US Ambassador to India Richard Verma on Monday.</p><p>"The current pandemic shows the limitations of the existing international system. In the post-COVID world, we need a template of globalisation based on fairness, equality and humanity," Sandhu said.</p><p>Indian Pharma companies are global leaders in producing affordable low cost medicines and vaccines, he said, adding that India is a reliable partner for providing affordable medicines to the US.</p><p>"Our long-standing and robust partnership with the US in the area of health and scientific research has further deepened during the time of pandemic," he said.</p><p>Similarly, India has been working with the US private sector in vaccine development. Serum Institute of India has collaborated with Codagenix Inc - a New York based clinical-stage Biotechnology Company - to rapidly co-develop a live-attenuated vaccine against the emergent coronavirus, Sandhu said.</p><p>Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad has collaborated with the University of Wisconsin–Madison and the vaccine company FluGen to develop a vaccine against COVID-19 called CoroFlu, he said.</p><p>Sandhu said that the containment of the virus and economic recovery will require a strong international cooperation to complement the national policy efforts.</p><p>India is also working with its international partners, including its neighbours, to combat the pandemic. It has delivered medical supplies and assistance to over 123 partner countries, he said.</p><p>"We have taken the lead in the SAARC region through an Emergency Relief corpus with an initial seed fund of USD 10 million. Our Rapid Response Medical Teams have been deployed in the Maldives, Kuwait. Our health experts are sharing best practices through online training for our neighbours and are active in global efforts to develop remedies and vaccines," the Indian diplomat said.</p><p>Noting that much has changed in the last few weeks, Sandhu said that the world looks a completely different place as nation after nation has taken shelter at home to stop the relentless march of the invisible enemy. Understandably, each country has erected its line of defence with the aim to minimise the loss of life.</p><p>"The global health crisis has brought in its wake an economic crisis of a scale that has not been seen in a long time.</p>"Grappling with these twin crises, governments today face an impossible choice between public health and economy. We will need a delicate balancing act. We need to revitalise our economies as well as enhance resilience, scalability and sustainability of our healthcare systems," he added.  LKJ  CPS

Post COVID-19 world needs globalisation based on fairness, equality and humanity: Indian envoy in US

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The globalisation trend is starting to reverse.</p><p>The idea that companies should be able to do business across continents unrestricted by national governments is falling out of favour with politicians.</p><p>To survive, globalisation needs international trade agreements. But, with global economic growth stuck in neutral, voters are becoming increasingly sceptical.</p><p>This is sapping political energy from continent-wide deals such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership.</p><p>And it looks like the slow death of globalisation could start to to quicken.</p><p>Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would seek to take the US out of the World Trade Organization, while negotiations between Britain and the European Union f<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/confidential-deutsche-bank-briefing-where-banks-post-brexit-2016-7">ollowing the Brexit vote may put London's financial services passport at risk.</a></p><p>Even without these sudden lurches to populism, international trade is on the decline.</p><p>Here's the chart from HSBC:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="HSBC" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5795d26fdd0895804c8b4a31-960/hsbc2.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>Here's what HSBC analysts, led by US economist Kevin Logan, have to say:</span></p><p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>"Even before a new president is inaugurated in the US, recent G20 developments are not encouraging: over the past nine months new trade-restrictive measures have been put in place at the highest rate since 2009."</span></p><p><span>And here's that G20 chart that shows trade-restricting policies on the rise:</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="HSBC" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5795d26fdd0895804c8b4a32-960/hsbc1.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p> </p><p>HSBC takes a dim view for the prospects of the global economy if this strangling of international trade isn't reversed (emphasis ours):</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"As a guide to the missed opportunity that this represents, according to international business representatives of the B20 Trade Taskforce<strong> the reversal of all of the trade restrictive measures implemented since 2008 could boost global GDP by $423 billion a year and support 9 million jobs.</strong> The current US campaign policy proposals make it very hard to be optimistic that this will materialize."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/regret-avoidance-selling-lottery-tickets-mega-millions-2016-7">We tested an economic theory by trying to buy people's lottery tickets for much more than they paid</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VlOTU2MDE6tCw0GqSor_wM7L40EQEVfv" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Globalisation is slowly dying

<strong><br /></strong><ul><li><strong>The World Trade Organisation (WTO), the <keyword id="6354424" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-bank">World Bank</keyword>, and the <keyword id="6366068" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-monetary-fund">International Monetary Fund</keyword> (IMF) all came together to ask for urgent reforms in international trade. </strong></li><li><strong>In a joint report, the institutions focused on modernising the WTO regulations to focus on the digital arena in order to ‘harness the unique strength’ of the organisation in changing times.<br /></strong></li><li><strong>The Director General of the WTO, has earlier stated that the current global trade tensions have the potential to undermine the economic order that was established after <keyword id="6357515" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-War-II">World War II</keyword>.</strong></li></ul>The functions of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank may vary, but the three institutions came together to publish a joint report expressing the urgency to reform international trade. <br /><br />They expressed the importance of ‘harnessing the unique strength of the WTO’ by focusing on global e-commerce regulations, improved negotiating mechanisms, and increased transparency in trade policies around the world.<br /><br />The report titled, ‘<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/09/28/093018-reinvigorating-trade-and-inclusive-growth">Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth</a>’ comes right after the president of the United States, <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword>, harshly questioned America’s involvement in global institutions like the WTO.<br /><br /><strong>The question for India<br /></strong><br />Ordinarily, the WTO has seven judges in its Dispute Settlement Court, but currently, only four are in positions of appointment. Reports indicate that the US has been blocking more people from coming on board. If the number of judges gets any lower, the WTO won’t have enough people on the panel to deliver rulings. <br /><br />It’s <a href="https://www.dailyo.in/business/wto-donald-trump-trade-wars-world-bank-agriculture-subsidies/story/1/26544.html">popular</a> opinion is that the organisation is currently failing its role and being used as an instrument for retaliatory tariff wars. <br /><br />The question for India is a little more complicated than just being protectionist or pro-globalisation because the WTO, though a global institution, has often been accused of being biased against developing nations. <br /><br />Last year India even <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/z5KwdAVralEF8wAsSxfTaL/India-accuses-WTO-of-raking-up-new-issues.html">told the WTO</a> that, “Such presentations by the secretariat within or outside the WTO go far beyond the remit of the functions of the WTO secretariat, and violate the letter and spirit of the agreement establishing the WTO,” when the organisation was seeking outcomes on e-commerce and investment facilitation initiatives.<br /><br />Director General, Roberto Azevedo, had earlier <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/The-man-in-charge-of-overseeing-global-trade-says-the-first-shots-have-been-fired-in-a-trade-war-and-the-situation-is-extremely-serious/articleshow/65344601.cms">warned</a> world leaders that the current trade tensions have the potential to cause great harm to the world economy and it undermines the trading order that was established after World War II. <br /><br />The ripple events will cause job loss and hit economic growth, with the under-developed and developing nations bearing the brunt.<br />

Three of the world’s leading financial institutions band together for international trade reforms

<strong><br /></strong><ul><li><strong><keyword id="164502" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sundar-Pichai">Sundar Pichai</keyword>, the CEO of <keyword id="6355629" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="google">Google</keyword>, wrote a letter to the government of India to highlight the importance of data sharing. </strong></li><li><strong>In his opinion, the free flow of data would help the Indian digital economy grow as well as assist the startups. </strong></li><li><strong>It’s a tall order at a time when most nations are implementing protectionist data policies</strong></li></ul>What seems to be a response to the draft bill on the Data Protection Law, the CEO of Google wrote a letter to the Indian government emphasizing the importance of the free flow of data across borders. <br /><br />Sundar Pichai added that the free flow of data is a win-win situation for all stakeholders since it will help global tech companies assist the domestic digital economy as well as Indian startups grow. His letter indicated that the <keyword id="45395" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Google-India">Google India</keyword> team would follow up with the government to discuss some of these issues in order to reach a consensus.<br /><br />At a time when most countries around the world are employing protectionist policies across the board, digitally and economically, this is a big ask of Pichai. It’s important to look at the pros and cons of being liberal with user data. <br /><br /><strong><keyword id="6867307" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="data-protectionism">Data protectionism</keyword><br /></strong><br />One of the main concerns of data protectionism is that excessivr regulation can create <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/08/the-dangers-of-digital-protectionism">data islands.</a> Basically, the digital economy would get divided into pockets and there would be an uneven distribution of benefits such as global supply chains or access to information.<br /><br />In fact, experts speculate that there actually three data realms that are being created. Namely the US, the EU and China.<br /><br />With India, the concern is specifically that the <keyword id="2617070" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Personal-Data-Protection-Bill">Personal Data Protection Bill</keyword> will hamper the growth of the digital payments sector that’s currently booming at 30% per year. As per the Global Commission of <keyword id="1062334" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="internet-governance">Internet Governance</keyword>, the restrictions on data in the EU <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/publications/tracing-economic-impact-regulations-free-flow-data-and-data-localization">costs</a> them 0.5% of their GDP.<br /><br />Even China, home to startups like Alibaba and Tencent, may face a loss of 1.8-3.4% in its GDP if it localises its data any further <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/documents/files/preventing_deglobalization_1.pdf">according</a> to the US Chamber of Commerce. <br /><br />In addition to the loss of productivity to the economy, there is also a cost. As the amount of data that can potentially be shared increases, as it inevitably will, the cost of blocking or protecting it will increase alongside. The cost will not only be borne by the government, in terms of surveillance, but also by the companies who will continually have to add new data centers in each country.<br /><br />Data localisation measures also lead to a decrease in efficiency as data chains will be divided into smaller fragments. <br /><br />Sachin Bansal, the co-founder of Flipkart, <a href="https://tech.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internet/indias-data-policy-should-factor-in-local-problems-not-mimic-west-sachin-bansal/65443337">stated</a> that the <keyword id="1127619" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="data-protection-laws">data protection laws</keyword> in India need to be in line with the requirements of the local economy instead of mimicking what the west has implemented. <br /><br />That being said, the Indian Finance Ministry has proposed to adopt a ‘mirroring’ approach. Essentially multinational companies would still be allowed to aggregate global data provided that a copy data that specifically pertains to Indian citizens, is stored locally as well. <br /><br />Experts argue that, ideally, that the developed economies should lead the conversation on a global scale rather than leave the field open to China, but the stark absence of leadership didn’t leave much of a choice.<br /><br />Putting the free flow of data in the context of laissez faire, the digital economy would definitely benefit from the complete absence of government intervention. But, it would come at a cost. As it is with the concept of free trade in economics, business could engage in risky behaviours that could lead to bigger problems down the road. <br /><br />

Here’s what Sundar Pichai had to say to the Indian government

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Globalisation has reached its peak and we're about to witness an unwinding of the trend that has dominated economics and trade for decades, according to one of Deutsche Bank's best-known strategists.</p><p>Writing in the bank's FX Blog, chief forex strategist George Saravelos argues that eight years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, numerous signs point to the slow death of globalisation.</p><p>"If 2008 marked the trigger, this year is likely to be remembered for signaling the persistence of a new mega-trend: the peak, and likely unwind of globalization," Saravelos writes. </p><p>"The world has been on a 'globalising' trend since the end of World War II. But looking at evidence this year, there is compelling evidence to argue that this is being reversed."</p><p>Saravelos argues that there are three crucial aspects that point towards the decline and fall of globalisation over the coming years.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>1. Cross-border trading and finance are shrinking</strong> - "World exports as a percent of GDP have peaked and have been on a steady, slow decline over the last two years. Crossborder gross financial flows into the US peaked in 2008 and are now at best going sideways. The number of new trade deals is at its lowest in more than two decades."</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>2. Anti-globalisation sentiment is growing in politics</strong> - As Saravelos argues, Britain will most likely have left the European single market within years, and that the US election has been almost entirely focused on concerns around immigration and globalisation.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"The world's most historic trading nation will exit the world's biggest free trade area by the end of this decade. The US presidential election is dominated by anti-trade and immigration concerns that are unlikely to shift, whatever the outcome. The political discourse is shifting in many other countries too," he says.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>3. Changes in regulation worldwide suggest that globalisation is waning </strong>- "China has slammed the brakes on its capital account liberalization program and is more likely to tighten further, rather than reverse any time soon. Banking regulation is increasingly balkanized, forcing greater national reporting and capital standards and raising the cost of crossborder business. Fines on multinationals have reached record levels this year," Saravelos notes.</p><p>Alongside the strategist's commentary, Deutsche Bank includes four key charts to illustrate its point about the coming decline of globalisation:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Deutsche Bank</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The FX Blog concludes by saying (emphasis ours):</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Whatever the outcome of today's US election, <strong>it is hard to avoid the conclusion that globalization has peaked and most likely embarked on a reversal over the last few years</strong>. Perhaps the only exception is the global dissemination of ideas, helped by persistent innovations in technology such as social networks. Political freedom is helping the globalization of ideas, the polity institute's index of democracy."</p><p>Saravelos is by no means the first person to suggest that we're on the brink of a drastic shift in global economic trends. <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-on-the-end-of-an-economic-era-2016-9">In September, fellow DB <span>strategists Jim Reid, Nick Burns, and Sukanto Chanda argued that "the current economic age we're in is coming to an end."</span></a></p><p><span>In the past couple of weeks, several prominent figures in British economics have said as much. <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/george-osborne-democracy-free-trade-open-society-threat-fight-values-2016-11">Former Chancellor George Osborne said at a Bloomberg event</a>: "At the moment, if you look around western societies, the support for democracy is declining, the forces of protectionism are rising, the concern about the pace of technology is growing, [and] technology is being used to echo back people's prejudices rather than challenge them."</span></p><p><span>Alongside Osborne,<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/lord-adair-turner-tech-capitalism-wages-inequality-precariat-2016-11"> Lord Turner, </a><span><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/lord-adair-turner-tech-capitalism-wages-inequality-precariat-2016-11">the former </a>vice chairman<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/lord-adair-turner-tech-capitalism-wages-inequality-precariat-2016-11"> of Merrill Lynch Europe and ex-head of the Britain's financial watchdog thinks</a> "</span></span>We may be at a turning point in the nature of capitalism."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ex-wells-fargo-employee-bankers-abused-customers-2016-10">Ex-Wells Fargo employees reveal how some bankers abused customers</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lyNTR3NjE6eeFw_BqaT6rpuP-DCPt7nU" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

DEUTSCHE BANK: 'Bye, bye globalisation'

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Workers pass a sculpture of telephone kiosks by David Mach entitled 'Out of Order' in Kingston, south west London, September 10, 2007.</p></div><p></p></div></div><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/baltic-dry-index-scrapping-ships-2016-2">World trade may be in the doldrums </a>but global capital flows have suffered even more since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This is according to analysts at UBS, who think it may lead to a "global war for capital," where countries with strong domestic funding win and those depending on foreign investment lose.</p><p>Here's UBS's Paul Donovan and Sophie Constable:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">The globalisation of capital flows were as much a feature of the post-1995 environment as were the globalisation of trade flows.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">Global capital flows shrank significantly in the wake of the global financial crisis, <strong>and have not subsequently recovered in the way that global trade has recovered.</strong></p><p>Here's the chart:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>UBS</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>There are a few good reasons for this, according to UBS.</p><p>Financial regulation has prioritized keeping pools of capital in within national borders after banks and investors got burned in risky international deals they didn't understand in the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>There's also been an increase in political risk, which makes markets unpredictable and discourages international investors. Here's UBS again (emphasis ours):</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">Economic pressures may be local but economic principles are generally universal. Political risks are, however, far more parochial in their nature. <strong>Understanding political risk requires a greater investment in time and resources than does understanding economic risk.</strong> As political risks rise investors are likely to keep money closer to home (where familiarity breeds reassurance).</p><p>So, why does this matter? Well, countries that don't have to rely on international investors to fund economic expansion will do better than those that do, according to UBS:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">There is a war for capital coming: International capital is harder to come by. Countries without sufficient domestic capital will have to fight to finance their current account deficits, especially if they are unattractive locations for real world direct investment.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-sachs-technology-threat-humanity-2016-2">JEFF SACHS: This is the biggest threat to the human race</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="NudmcxdTqsaXIuFZ0ILKnMz6ymYK9my_" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

UBS: Globalisation is collapsing around us

<br />
<br /> According to a review, 0.2% growth in salary has been witnessed since the great recession eight years back. China on the other hand, saw the largest real <keyword id="3329453" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="salary-growth">salary growth</keyword> of 10.6% during the same period.<br />
<br /> A new analysis by the <keyword id="29961" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hay-Group">Hay Group</keyword> division of <keyword id="743341" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Korn-Ferry">Korn Ferry</keyword> says that India's salary growth stood at 0.2 per cent in real terms, with a <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> gain of 63.8 per cent over the same period. While other emerging markets like Turkey, Argentina, Russia and Brazil had the worst real salary growth at (-) 34.4 per cent, (-) 18.6 per cent, (-) 17.1 per cent and (-) 15.3 per cent, respectively.<br />
<br />
"Most emerging G20 markets stood at either one end of the scale or the other either amongst the highest for wage growth, or amongst the lowest. However, India stood right in the middle, with all the mature markets," the report told ET.<br />
<br />
The report further noted that Indian wage growth is the most unequal.<br />
<br /> "Of the countries we looked at, Indian wage growth was by far the most unequal - people at the bottom are 30 per cent worse off in real terms since the start of the recession; whilst people at the top are 30 per cent better off," <keyword id="3654425" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Benjamin-Frost">Benjamin Frost</keyword>, Korn Ferry Hay Group Global Product Manager, told ET.<br />
<br /> Frost further added. “Strong wage growth for senior jobs is mostly because of skill shortages for key professional and managerial roles; and the increasing connection to a more <keyword id="3654426" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="globalised-pay-mark">globalised pay mark</keyword> at the senior levels - a market where India still pays less than most countries, but is catching up fast.”<br />
<br />
The poorer wage growth is a result of an oversupply of people.<br />
<br />
"India has made less progress than some other countries in bringing high value jobs to the country. This has led to poor job growth, therefore an oversupply of un/semi-skilled people, and poor wage growth," Frost said.<br />
<br />
U.S also faced one of the worst salary recoveries among the developed countries. Salaries there decreased by 3.1% on average since September 2008, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw an increment of 10.2 per cent.<br />
<br />
Canada had the best salary recovery amongst the developed nation, 7.2 per cent salary growth on average, with a GDP gain of 11.2 per cent.<br />
Other nations like Australia stood at 5.9%, France at 5.2 per cent, Germany at 5 per cent and Italy at 2.4 per cent salary growth.<br />
<br />
"While overall, global economists point to this recovery as one of the worst in history, there are political, economic and social reasons for the disparate salary fluctuations in different countries," Frost told ET.<br />
<br />

India saw just 0.2 % salary growth since 2008, China made huge gains

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters/Olivia Harris</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>For many politicians across the world, globalisation is now the enemy. In the USA, President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly attacked the growing links across borders, and in the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>, the Brexit vote is widely seen as a rejection of the European Union's increasingly close ties.</p><p><span>It now feels like globalisation has reached its peak and we are about to witness an unwinding of the trend that has dominated economics and trade for decades.</span></p><p><span>Deutsche Bank summed it up pretty well last week, when FX strategist George Saravelos wrote: <span>"If 2008 marked the trigger, this year is likely to be remembered for signaling the persistence of a new mega-trend: the peak, and likely unwind of globalisation."</span></span></p><p>"The world has been on a 'globalising' trend since the end of World War II. But looking at evidence this year, there is compelling evidence to argue that this is being reversed."</p><p>The rise of anti-globalist sentiment comes at a time when global growth is persistently weak, and the picture in global trade is similarly poor. </p><p>With growing criticisms of deals like TTIP and TPP, as well as <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-canada-ceta-summit-cancelled-belgium-wallonia-brexit-2016-10">the near collapse of the EU-Canada deal because of the Belgian region of Wallonia,</a> things have worsened significantly in the last 12 months. As Douglas Lippoldt, a senior trade economist at HSBC says in a note circulated to clients on Tuesday:  "The past year has not been kind to international trade." </p><p>Lippoldt continues, saying (emphasis ours):</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>"The rise in anti-globalisation sentiment is a central feature of the political debate in Europe and the US.</strong> The EU is facing resistance to accords like its pending free trade agreement with Canada. Donald Trump's election in the US marks a break with Obama's trade policies, signalling a more aggressive US policy stance towards its trade partners.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Trump has signalled that withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a top trade priority. All this threatens to undo a decade of work by trade negotiators around the globe, who have put together a large portfolio of new agreements. Progress has been made at the multilateral level through the World Trade Organization and at the bilateral, regional and sectoral levels among groups of reform-minded countries. But these accords need to be signed and ratified.<strong> As things stand, this looks highly problematic."</strong></p><p>HSBC's economist then provides examples of 10 different deals, which the bank thinks are at risk with the rise of the anti-globalisation movement. Check them out below:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Should one or more of these agreements fail, Lippoldt says, the consequences could be dire:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Collectively, these ten agreements represent a significant potential source of economic stimulus. In the face of continued economic weakness and constraints, we believe that a failure to seize upon the liberalisation these agreements embody would leave the world economy worse off, with lower standards in trade, and with fewer resources available to tackle pressing societal needs."</p><p>Global trade is at a crossroads, if it goes the wrong way, it isn't going to benefit anyone.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/buy-rent-financial-suicide-james-altucher-2016-10">JAMES ALTUCHER: This is why owning a home is financial suicide</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="0yNjBzeDo1bPwt1rmBJ8yS7MxZE2di07" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

These charts show all the trade deals the anti-globalisation movement could destroy

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimothy27/3822203072/in/photostream/">Flickr/Chimothy27</a></span></p><p class="caption">2016 is the best time to be born in all of human history so far, according to Johan Norberg.</p></div><p></p></div></div>If you closely follow the global news cycle, you would be forgiven for believing that we are diving head first into an apocalypse. Crises in Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine; terrorist attacks across Europe and the Middle East; mass shootings and police violence in the US; and frequent natural disasters everywhere else have left many calm, rational people in a state of fear.</p><p>Only 4% of Brits and 6% of Americans believe that the world is getting better,<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world/" target="_blank"> according to polling by YouGov</a>.</p><p>But despite this universal sense of dread, humans are actually more safe, wealthier, healthier, more free, less hungry, and more literate than ever before, Johan Norberg argues in his book Progress, which is <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Progress-Reasons-Look-Forward-Future/dp/1780749503" target="_blank">published on September 1</a>.</p><p>Norberg, an author and lecturer in economic globalisation, says that the key reason we are so anxious about the state of the world is that we are sharing information so much more quickly through 24 hour news channels and the internet.</p><p>When a natural disaster or a mass murder happened in a foreign country in the past, we would not read about it in a newspaper until a week later. "By then it would be solved, it would be over," Norberg told Business Insider. "We would be sad about it, but then we would turn to the next page."</p><p>"Now we can see what is happening live, we don't know how things will end. " he added. "That triggers our fight or flight instincts - it gives us the sense that everything is falling apart in the world right now."</p><p>Norberg explained that this sense of doom is misplaced. He gave 10 reasons for why 2016 is actually the best time to be alive.</p>

10 reasons 2016 is the best time to be alive, according to an economic globalisation expert

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZD4M32U3&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1401&amp;RH=718#/SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZD4M32U3&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1401&amp;RH=718&amp;POPUPPN=19&amp;POPUPIID=2C0FQEC6GKBY">REUTERS/Dominick Reuter</a></span></p><p class="caption">Economist Angus Deaton.</p></div><p></p></div></div>A Nobel Prize-winning economist has warned that the rise in robotics and automation could destroy millions of jobs across the world.</p><p>Angus Deaton, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/who-is-angus-deaton-2015-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-2015-10">who won the Nobel Prize last year for his work on health, wealth, and inequality</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bbf54b3e-c5f3-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef">told the Financial Times</a> he believes robots are a much greater threat to employment in the US than globalisation.</p><p>Addressing the theory that Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections was fueled by a backlash against globalisation, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bbf54b3e-c5f3-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef">Deaton told the FT</a>: "Globalisation for me seems to be not first-order harm and I find it very hard not to think about the billion people who have been dragged out of poverty as a result. I don't think that globalisation is anywhere near the threat that robots are."</p><p>He added: "It's hard to think that Mark Zuckerberg is actually impoverishing anyone by getting rich with Facebook. But driverless cars are another matter entirely."</p><p>Obama's White House <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/ai-could-boost-productivity-but-increase-wealth-inequality-the-white-house-says.html">warned on Thursday that advances in artificial intelligence and robotics have the potential to wipe out millions of jobs in factories and industries like trucking</a>, potentially increasing inequality.</p><p>The World Economic Forum (WEF) predicted a "Fourth Industrial Revolution" at the start of this year, as automation and robotics transform the global economy and the way we work. <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/wef-davos-report-on-robots-replacing-human-jobs-2016-1">WEF expects 5 million jobs to be destroyed by 2020 by the trends.</a> An in-depth study by Citi and Oxford University also found that <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/robots-will-steal-your-job-citi-ai-increase-unemployment-inequality-2016-2">77% of all jobs in China are at risk of automation and 57% of all jobs across the OECD.</a></p><p>Changes are already starting to be seen. Foxconn, a key manufacturing partner for Apple, Google, <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/" target="_blank" title="" data-skimwords-id="1974447" data-skimlinks-editor="0" data-skimwords-word="amazon" data-group-id="0" data-skim-creative="300001" data-skim-product="1974447" data-skim-node-id="174:Thisinvestmentisalre_1">Amazon</a>, and the world's 10th largest employer, has <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/clsa-wef-and-citi-on-the-future-of-robots-and-ai-in-the-workforce-2016-6">already replaced 60,000 workers with robots.</a> And <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/clsa-wef-and-citi-on-the-future-of-robots-and-ai-in-the-workforce-2016-6">two of the world's ten largest employers globally - Walmart and the US Department of Defence - are using drones</a>, for warehouse delivery and surveillance respectively.</p><p><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bbf54b3e-c5f3-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef">You can read the full FT interview with Deaton here.</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-199-trillion-debt-china-japan-uk-hong-kong-ireland-cayman-islands-treasury-bonds-notes-politics-2016-12">The US is $19.9 trillion in debt - here are the countries we owe the most</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="U4aG40ODE6eNhUKBXTk9_DDbW6tKUEAM" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

NOBEL ECONOMIST: 'I don't think globalisation is anywhere near the threat that robots are'

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Epcot_IllumiNations-_Reflections_of_Earth_2.jpg">commons.wikimedia.org</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">SOME lawmen chase villains down mean streets. Others chase fraudsters across balance-sheets. In the stomach-churning stench of the Vetport at John F. Kennedy International Airport, yet others don surgical masks, goggles and rubber gloves, and peer with penlights into crates holding thousands of little birds.</span></p>
<p>These inspectors with the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) examine not just live animals entering America--such as the 45 outlaw jays they found lurking in a legal shipment of thousands of birds--but plants and animal products such as handbags and caviar. In 2011 FWS agents raided Gibson Guitar facilities in Tennessee and seized wood worth hundreds of thousands of dollars that they suspected had been illegally imported from India and Madagascar.</p>
<p>The buyers may be besotted ornithophiles, air-brained fashionistas or greedy gourmets. But the sellers are crooks, supplying a market which, according to America's Congressional Research Service, is worth as much as $133 billion annually. Commodities such as rhino horn and caviar offer criminals two benefits rarely found together: high prices and low risk. Rhino horn can fetch up to $50,000 per kilogram, more than gold or the American street value of cocaine. Get caught bringing a kilogram of cocaine into America and you could face 40 years in prison and a $5m fine. On January 10th, by contrast, a New York court sentenced a rhino-horn trafficker to just 14 months.</p>
<p>The appeal of such trade is increased, however unwittingly, by governments trying harder to protect what is precious and rare. "When we finally get it together to agree that we'll only take ten tuna out of the water this year because that's all we can afford to take, that 11th tuna will be worth a lot of money," says Theodore Leggett of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). As with tuna, so with ebony, ivory and rhino horn--all being regulated more tightly, and all still desirable.</p>
<h3>The world is their oyster</h3>
<p>Organised crime is globalising and diversifying. Mono-ethnic, hierarchical mafias are being replaced by multi-ethnic networks that operate across borders and commit many types of offence. In an ongoing investigation into rhino-horn trafficking, the FWS arrested Irish travellers using indigent Texans to procure material for Chinese and Vietnamese buyers. Europol, the European Union's law-enforcement agency, estimates that just a quarter of Europe's roughly 3,600 organised-crime groups have a main nationality, and that some operate in dozens of countries. A third are involved in more than one criminal enterprise, with half of those linked to drug-trafficking.</p>
<p>And though traditional trafficking in drugs, guns and people is still lucrative, gangs are increasingly moving into lower-risk, higher-reward areas--not just wildlife, but fraud and illegal waste-disposal. The UNODC says the value of cross-border trade in counterfeit goods could be as much as $250 billion a year. On January 14th it launched a campaign to tell consumers about the dangers posed by fake electronics, food, medicines and the like--and how the buyers of knock-offs enrich some highly unpleasant people.</p>
<p>Gangs in Britain make around £9 billion ($14.8 billion) a year from tax, benefit, excise-duty and other fraud--not much less than the £11 billion they earn from drugs. In America cigarette-trafficking deprives state, local and federal governments of $5 billion in tax revenues annually. The European Union estimates that losses within its borders from cigarette smuggling, tax fraud and false claims on its funds by organised groups total EUR34 billion ($46.5 billion) a year. But member states bring fewer than ten cases each a year for defrauding the EU, and sentences tend to be light.</p>
<p>According to the FLARE Network, an international group of campaigners against organised crime, criminal groups in Italy make around EUR14 billion a year from being mixed up in agriculture. In some parts of the country mafias control food production and distribution; Franco La Torre, FLARE's president, says they also enrich themselves through fraudulent claims on EU agricultural funds. Increasingly strict regulation of waste disposal has created another profitable opportunity for organised crime in Europe--particularly, according to Europol, for the Italian Camorra, 'Ndrangheta and Cosa Nostra.</p>
<p>Where politics is corrupt and law enforcement weak, as in much of Latin America, gangsters still look much as they have for decades: brutal and keen on the brand-enhancing effect of highly visible violence. But in the rich world, the shift to new lines of business is changing the face of organised crime. The FBI estimates that the four big Italian Mafia groups still have 3,000 members and affiliates in America. But as traditional industries have shrivelled so, too, have the unions and tight-knit neighbourhoods that were once their fertile breeding grounds.</p>
<p>Old-style loan sharks and drug-dealers are finding a new role as distributors for the modern mobsters who manage the supply chains, marketing, finance and human resources needed to move goods, money and people across borders. "The new generation are very talented businessmen and technologically advanced experts," says Mr La Torre. They prefer invisibility to showy violence. Many also have legitimate business interests.</p>
<p>Clever criminals acting across borders are extremely difficult to prosecute. They profit from gaps in enforcement and regulation, and conceal their illegal acts in complex supply chains. If a network of Nigerian scammers based in Amsterdam defrauds French, Australian and American credit-card holders, where does the crime occur? And who has the motivation, not to mention the jurisdiction, to prosecute?</p>
<p>A commodity such as oil, ivory or fish will be transported on a ship flying a flag of convenience, explains Mr Leggett. The ship will be owned by a holding company registered in a tax haven with a phoney board. Thus the criminals can disguise the provenance of their ill-gotten goods and middlemen can plead ignorance.</p>
<p>Governments are reacting by getting law-enforcement agencies to work together. America is trying to improve the flow of information between them. Britain's recently created National Crime Agency will have the power to order local police forces to make arrests, unlike the body it replaced. Europol analyses and distributes information from EU member states.</p>
<p>But organised crime sells things that people want--not just drugs and sex, but handbags, sushi and wardrobes, too. Businesses and consumers will have to accept, says Mr Leggett, "that there is no such thing as just wood. It has to be wood from somewhere." And they will have to agree not to sell or buy illegally harvested wood, however beautiful or cheap.</p>
<p>Until then, illicit goods will keep coming in quantities too great for governments to stop. One FWS inspector estimates that for all the peering, prodding and chirping, for all the rewards promised and rhino-horn traffickers caught, the agency picks up perhaps 5% of wildlife brought illicitly into America. For criminals, that is merely a light tax on the profits from the rest.</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>
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