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Chief Economic Advisor V <keyword id="148840" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="anantha-nageswaran" source="Orion">Anantha Nageswaran</keyword> on Thursday said global uncertainty has been rising after the recent developments in the United States and governments, businesses and individuals should keep 'margins of safety' in fiscal, corporate and savings account planning. He said the global growth estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) given in January look outdated and countries will have to watch what the developments in the US over the last week would do to confidence, bank lending growth and the subsequent chain effects. Two banks in America have gone belly up over the last week. Signature Bank, New York, which lent mostly to the crypto industry was shut down by the regulators on Sunday after there was a run on their deposits. Besides, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last week left many startups, tech companies, entrepreneurs and VC funds nervous and jittery. SVB, the 16th largest bank in the United States, was closed on Friday last by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation which later appointed the FDIC as its receiver. Speaking at the <keyword id="6359483" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="crisil" source="Orion">Crisil</keyword> <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> Outlook seminar, <keyword id="13054616" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nageswaran" source="Orion">Nageswaran</keyword> said the uncertainty has been on a rising trend and has gone up a few notches in the last week and this is something which countries need to live with, not only this year but for the next year and beyond. "And the important thing to remember is that when you are facing uncertain times, the key thing to do is to make sure that we have margins of safety in our operations, whether it is for corporates or for investors. The only guidance one can think of is to allow for margins of safety, whether it is in fiscal planning, corporate planning or household balance sheet or savings account planning," he said. He said if the developments that have happened in the last week do create a necessity for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes then we have to wait and see what happens to real interest rates in the United States and what will that do to the US dollar. "And also, what implications it will have for emerging economies, which I believe will be mostly positive in one sense, that is, the pressure on their currencies will abate. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve had to go ahead with its tightening programme, having provided a liquidity backstop and put in place some other arrangements to make depositors whole, then we have to wait and see what kind of domino effect it might create on other banking institutions and on the overall economy etc. It is a fairly difficult situation that central banks around the world, especially advanced economies, are confronting," Nageswaran said. He said at this moment, it may be somewhat difficult to quantify the net effect of these developments on countries like India. "The overall positives would be the implications it would have for global demand, for oil prices and for the US interest rates and the dollar. Those kinds of reactions will be mostly positive for us, even if there is an impact on export growth," he said. "You can see the rapidity with which things are evolving, and it is difficult to provide long-term guidance for anyone. It's important, therefore, we allow for uncertainty in our planning processes. And I think to some extent, we have tried to do it in our fiscal policy," Nageswaran said. He said India's GDP growth is expected to be 7 per cent in the current fiscal. "If we are able to get through another week with temperatures in the current ranges, I think the wheat harvest because of the early sowing will also happen ... and we may be able to get a good crop. And this will have positive chain reactions going forward, for inflation, for agricultural output, for monetary policy etc". With regard to the next fiscal, Nageswaran said the growth projection of 6.5 per cent has more downside risk than upside risk. "Of course, all of this is subject to assumptions about how the world situation, both in politics and economics, will look like. But by and large, we look at all sectors, we are well above pre-pandemic levels and private consumption as a share of GDP, if you look at three-quarters of data for the last five financial years, it has been rising," he said. He said one should not be overly optimistic talking about 8-9 per cent GDP growth in the current environment. "If you can achieve, sustain the growth of 6.5-7 per cent or even 6.4-7 per cent in the next 7-8 years until the next decade, we would have done very well". He said public sector capex has been rising in the last several years and has been going up by three times, concentrating on several sectors. Naturally, at some point, public sector capex has to take a step back and the private sector will have to carry on the good work. Public sector capex has created the physical infrastructure for better manufacturing growth and export performance in the years to come, Nageswaran said. The chief economic advisor in the finance ministry also said that the nominal GDP growth for the next fiscal has been assumed at 10.5 per cent, and though India remains optimistic, it is aware of the formidable array of challenges that confronts both developing and advanced economies. "We do require just 2-3 years of steady 10 per cent nominal GDP growth for fiscal parameters to show meaningful improvements. So while it is clear that the quality of expenditure is improving and there is still room for improvement both with respect to quality and quantitative parameters, exaggerated hand wringing may not be necessary," he said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/vedanta-appoints-omar-davis-as-its-president-strategy/articleshow/98690407.cms">Vedanta appoints Omar Davis as its President-Strategy</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/indian-economy-likely-to-log-in-a-tepid-6-growth-next-fiscal-crisil/articleshow/98690120.cms">Indian economy likely to log in a tepid 6% growth next fiscal: Crisil</a>

Global uncertainty rising, need to maintain 'margins of safety': Chief Economic Advisor

AP/Gerald HerbertRepublican presidential candidate Donald Trump makes a boxing gesture while greeting the crowd after speaking at a campaign rally in New Orleans.After a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-drop-sp-500-falls-most-in-eight-months-2017-5">brutal beatdown</a> on Wednesday, investors are wasting no time picking themselves up off the mat.During pre-market trading, the S&amp;P 500 looked to be headed for a second straight drop following <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-mueller-trump-russia-special-counsel-2017-5">former FBI director Robert Mueller's appointment as special counsel</a> to investigate Russian efforts to influence the November election. But the index recovered in early trading on Thursday, gaining 0.4%.The relief rally can also be seen elsewhere in global markets. Safe haven assets gave back some earlier gains as gold decreased 0.2% and the yen slid 0.6% versus the US dollar.However, the relief did not translate overseas, as the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.7% during regular trading hours, while the MSCI All-World Index lost 1.2%.The relatively muted reaction is a far cry from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-drop-sp-500-falls-most-in-eight-months-2017-5">what was seen on Wednesday</a>, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.7%, its biggest decline since September 9, and a stock market fear gauge spiked almost 50%. The snappy recovery in stocks should be of little surprise, considering US equity investors have made a habit of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-tug-of-war-trump-comey-memo-2017-5">buying on weakness</a> throughout the eight-year bull market. Following the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union last June, the S&amp;P 500 fell 5.3% over two trading sessions, only to make up those losses in about a week.The same dynamic was in play when China unexpectedly devalued its currency in August 2015. After the S&amp;P 500 underwent an 11% correction, traders bought the dip and restored the benchmark to its pre-sell-off levels within about two months. <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/yale-history-professor-trumps-path-tyranny-unfolding-stop-politics-donald-us-constitution-democracy-2017-4">Yale history professor: Trump's path to tyranny is unfolding</a></h3> Please enable Javascript to watch this video

Global markets are fighting back in the face of Trump uncertainty

ReutersVisitors run away from a wave caused by a tidal bore which surged past a barrier on the banks of Qiantang River, in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, September 15, 2015.The bloodbath in global markets is showing no signs of abating as investors continue to flee from risky assets.The pressure on President Donald Trump was ratcheted up another notch after the US market close on Wednesday after former FBI director Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to investigate Russian efforts to influence the November election, and markets have responded in kind.Safe haven assets climbed in early trading on Thursday, with gold adding 0.3% and the yen strengthening as much as 0.5% against the US dollar. Traders are also buying US 10-year Treasury notes, pushing their yields down 3 basis points to 2.19%.Meanwhile, S&amp;P 500 futures sunk 0.3% in pre-market trading, while the Stoxx Europe 600 and MSCI All-World Indexes each dropped more than 0.9%. The sell off in US equities on Wednesday also caused a spike in trader anxiety, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which serves as a barometer of investor nervousness, surging 46%. That was the biggest increase since June 24, a big shift for the gauge, which had hovered close to its lowest recorded level for weeks.However, it's important to note that US stock investors have made a habit of buying on weakness throughout the eight-year bull market. Following the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union last June, the S&amp;P 500 fell 5.3% over two trading sessions, only to make up those losses in about a week.The same dynamic was in play when China unexpectedly devalued its currency in August 2015. After the S&amp;P 500 underwent an 11% correction, traders bought the dip and restored the benchmark to its pre-sell-off levels within about two months.Still, investors are markedly less hedged than they were in those two situations, as indicated by the VIX's near-record low level heading into Wednesday. That could make the market more susceptible to a downward shock or, worse yet, leave it less able to recover as quickly. Get the latest Gold price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price"> here.</a> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-universe-will-die-2017-4">How our universe will end: 'The black holes will eat up everything'</a></h3> Please enable Javascript to watch this video

The global market onslaught continues as uncertainty swirls around Trump

By Gurdip Singh Singapore, Jun 23 () Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Tuesday that he has decided to call for general elections to "clear the decks" and give the new government a fresh five-year mandate, amid the coronavirus pandemic that has battered the city-state's economy. In a televised address to the nation, Lee said that he has advised President Halimah Yacob on Tuesday to dissolve Parliament and issue the writ for election. He said that holding an election now will clear the decks and give the new Government a fresh five-year mandate to focus on the national agenda and the difficult decisions it will have to make. Elections must be held by April 2021 at the latest. Lee's ruling People's Action Party holds a majority in the current Parliament. Lee pointed out that his government has worked hard to contain the coronavirus spread since it was first detected in January 2020 with four fiscal budgets of 100 billion Singapore dollars to manage through the COVID-19 pandemic. "But we should be under no illusions that we have defeated COVID-19. This is just the end of the beginning phase. A long struggle lies ahead," said Lee. Singapore on Tuesday reported 119 new cases of coronavirus, majority of whom are foreign workers residing in dormitories, taking the country's COVID-19 tally to 42,432. "COVID-19 will be with us for at least a year and most probably longer, until a vaccine is developed and becomes available. It is a very difficult and tricky disease to deal with. So, we have to continue keeping a close watch on the situation," Lee said. He told Singaporeans to economically brace themselves for a very tough period ahead. Singapore has not yet felt the full economic fallout from COVID-19, but it is coming, he warned. "Despite all the measures we have taken, there will be more business closures, and more retrenchments in the coming months. Unemployment will go up," said Lee. But the government is determined to save as many jobs as it can, and create new jobs too. "And we will do our utmost to help businesses and industries survive and restructure themselves," assured Lee. "That is how we can keep our capabilities and livelihoods intact through the storm, and pick up again when the sun shines once more," he said. But the Prime Minister also expressed concern about the external uncertainties. "Major regional and global developments can affect us. US-China tensions over many issues, now including Hong Kong. The US presidential elections in November. Border clashes between China and India. Political developments nearer home in Southeast Asia. We do not know what surprises may be in store for us within the next year," Lee said. But as dangers materialise, Singapore must navigate safely through them and protect its security and national interests. This will require diplomatic skills and a deft touch. "To overcome these challenges, we must stand completely united as one people," he urged Singaporeans. GS RUP ZH RUP RUP

Singapore premier calls for election amid global uncertainties and COVID-19 crisis

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Flickr / andrechinnNew building construction for businesses has slowed as more companies avoid spending during a period of economic uncertainty.</div></div></div><keyword id="53346" type="POSITION" weightage="100" keywordseo="CFO">CFO</keyword> Insider is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for chief financial officers and other finance experts.<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-shy-away-from-spending-1448931106">Business investment across the US is fizzling out</a> (Wall Street Journal)Spending on "machines, computers, and new buildings," along with other building blocks of the economy, have slowed, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. "The broadest measure of US business investment advanced 2.2% from a year earlier in the third quarter," it reports, citing figures from the Commerce Department.The Journal also cites the example of orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft declining 3.8% through the first 10 months of 2015, compared with the same period last year. "Many factors have conspired to limit growth in investments during this economic expansion," the publication reports. "Businesses hesitated to commit to projects amid uneven consumer demand and concerns about the regulatory environment. Thousands of firms have decided to bolster share prices by spending money on stock buybacks and dividends, rather than plow funds back into facilities and equipment, moves that would boost worker productivity and eventually wages."<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-women-make-boardrooms-more-productive-2015-12">A former Microsoft Ventures director explains how women make boardrooms more productive</a> (Business Insider)Xero general manager and former Microsoft Ventures director James Maiocco discusses how adding women to the executive team and boardroom can bring about immediate and positive changes. "With women and other diverse backgrounds at the table it brings a level of transparency and accountability," Maiocco says.Maiocco warns that we often become blind to our own biases or assumptions. "The right voices at the table can question and correct those unintended assumptions," he explains.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-ficc-cuts-2015-12">Morgan Stanley is pulling a surprise move - and Wall Street loves it</a> (Business Insider)Morgan Stanley is reportedly planning to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-cutting-fixed-income-jobs-2015-11">lay off about 25% of its bond-trading staff</a> by the end of 2015, and many Wall Street analysts are supporting the company's plan. "The transition and reduction of capital from the FICC business could take time, but it is our view that if [Morgan Stanley] can articulate a clear path (with milestones) to that end state, it can begin to positively impact the valuation of MS shares," UBS analyst Brennan Hawken writes. Morgan Stanley had the largest drop in bond-trading revenue of all the major banks. Trading was <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/q3-2015-was-bad-for-investment-banks-2015-10">down 42% year-on-year</a> in the third quarter.You can reach James on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/JamesKosur">@JamesKosur</a> and follow CFO Insider <a href="http://twitter.com/CFOInsider">@CFOInsider</a>. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/good-linkedin-photo-guide-networking-2015-11">How to take the perfect LinkedIn profile photo</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="x3aGVrcTr37d1QU1phoKanpvkRPCzFxW" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Uncertainty over consumer demand and global turmoil are slowing business investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>OPEC slashed oil demand outlook on Tuesday on signs of global uncertainty. </li><li>The cartel now predicts demand will be roughly 380,000 barrels a day below previous estimates. </li></ul>OPEC slashed its oil demand outlook on Tuesday, citing mounting global uncertainties while recommending "vigilance and caution" to member countries.The cartel now forecasts oil demand will be 380,000 barrels per day below previous estimates in the first quarter of 2023. It is expecting oil demand for the full year to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, equaling an average of 101.77 million barrels per day. "The year 2023 is expected to remain surrounded by many uncertainties, mandating vigilance and caution," OPEC said in its monthly report. In October, OPEC announced a 2 million barrel per day supply cut, which drew the ire of the Biden Administration and criticism that the cartel is seeking to benefit from elevated oil prices. The latest fall in demand outlook serves as further justification for the October supply cut. Earlier in December, OPEC agreed to keep the supply picture largely unchanged in the early months of 2023 in order to weigh the full ramifications of the previous cuts. OPEC also noted that rivals will bring 1.5 million bpd to market next year, with 75% of that coming from the US.

OPEC slashes oil demand outlook on global economic uncertainty after earlier predictions of supply shortfalls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Putin's recent nuclear threats have prompted a range of responses from key players in the war.</li><li>One expert told Insider that Putin likely hoped to cause confusion and uncertainty with his warning.</li></ul>Russian President <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-threatens-nuclear-weapons-over-ukraine-says-not-bluffing-2022-9">Vladimir Putin's thinly-veiled nuclear threat</a> last week has set the world on edge — accomplishing exactly what he hoped it would, according to experts. Despite <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putins-nuclear-threats-sign-he-knows-war-not-going-well-2022-9">the brazen escalation</a>, experts and analysts alike have said in recent days that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-us-general-concerned-putin-nukes-ukraine-retakes-territory-2022-9">the threat of nuclear war remains minimal.</a>"There are a bunch more steps he would take to convince the world of his seriousness and put pressure on Ukraine and the West before using nuclear weapons," said Paul D'Anieri, a political science professor at the University of California, Riverside and the author of <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FUkraine-Russia-Civilied-Divorce-Uncivil%2Fdp%2F1108713955">"Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War."</a>But that doesn't mean Putin won't invoke his nuclear arsenal to sow fear in the meantime. Putin likely has little desire to risk World War III seven months into Russia's war in Ukraine. But his televised threat last week certainly calls to mind the country's trove of more than 5,000 nuclear warheads and its cache of rockets, missiles, and artillery shells.Putin intensified his nuclear threats in a speech last week during which he <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-speech-partial-military-mobilization-draft-reservists-ukraine-war-2022-9">announced a partial mobilization order</a>, conscripting hundreds of thousands of reservists in a move he hopes will give his <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-putin-cant-solve-manpower-problem-without-admitting-failure-2022-9">depleted army</a> a triumphant boost on the battlefield. But experts say the call-up in conjunction with the nuclear threat has also narrowed the range of acceptable outcomes that Russia could reasonably consider a victory. "The conscription has turned this war into a war that Putin can't really afford to lose," D'Anieri told Insider. "That fact increases the likelihood that he would do something really drastic like use nuclear weapons."<h2>Putin's threat raises the stakes for several key players in the conflict.</h2>Ukraine has always had the most to lose in this war, and the renewed threat of nuclear warfare only further reinforces what's at stake for the country.Despite experts' assessment that the likelihood of an impending Russian nuclear display is slim, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-intelligence-claims-risk-of-russia-using-nuke-very-high-2022-9">Ukraine offered an alarmist appraisal of the danger</a> this week.In an interview with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/27/ukrainians-involved-in-russia-referendums-face-prison-terms-says-kviv">The Guardian,</a> Vadum Skibitsky, a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, put the probability of Russia hitting Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon at "very high.""They will likely target places along the frontlines with lots of [army] personal and equipment (sic)," he told the outlet. "In order to stop them we need not just more anti-aircraft systems, but anti-rocket systems.The military official offered no evidence for his claims and officials in his organization have repeatedly <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-credible-evidence-putin-is-ill-despite-appearance-anger-in-public-experts-2022-5">spread baseless theories.</a> But Ukraine may have good cause to be alarmist, as many analysts believe Putin's nuclear invocation is also an attempt to manipulate the US into limiting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-giving-ukraine-3-billion-arms-package-russia-war-2022-8">its support for Ukraine.</a>"Putin is now upping the ante and he's counting on the fact that we won't go to nuclear war for Ukraine which will get the West to tell Ukraine to negotiate a solution that is basically a Russian victory," D'Anieri said.A blatant nuclear reminder, Putin hopes, might scare the West into ramping down or discontinuing its aid to Ukraine, experts posited — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-helped-ukraine-plan-counteroffensive-against-russia-cnn-2022-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">aid that has helped Ukraine stage a series of recent victories</a>."The beauty for him I think, is he believes he could nuke Ukraine and nobody in the West would want to nuke Russia in retaliation," D'Anieri said. Ukraine, meanwhile, has a motivation to play up the danger of nuclear war in an effort to curry even more support from the country's Western allies who have nuclear weapons of their own. <div type="image" title="Russian Yars ballistic nuclear missiles on mobile launchers roll through Red Square during the Victory Day military parade rehearsals on May 6, 2018 in Moscow, Russia" height="512" width="1024" msid="94545987" hostid="261"></div><h2>The world is closely watching. </h2>Putin has repeatedly hinted at Russia's massive arsenal of nuclear power since the war began, but his most recent threat has prompted a more reactive response on the international stage.President Joe Biden and other White House officials have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-russia-catastrophic-consequences-firing-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-war-2022-9">publicly condemned the Russian president's comments</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-privately-warned-russia-against-using-nuclear-weapons-report-2022-9">privately warned the Kremlin</a> of dire consequences should the country break the global non-use standard of nuclear weapons that has been in place since 1945.In addition to issuing its own warnings to Russia, the US is also aiming to bring the global community into the fold of nuclear worry. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/china-and-india-on-putin-in-ukraine-00059382">Politico reported this week</a> that there are increasing calls within and outside of the Biden administration to urge China and India — two Moscow allies with their own access to nuclear weapons — to reign in Putin's threats.Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-spy-planes-appear-to-be-monitoring-russian-enclave-kalinigrad-2022-9">US officials are reportedly following signs</a> that Russia has changed the location of its nukes or their alert status, with no signs of such activity as of Thursday. Putin's threats have undoubtedly done exactly what he hoped they would, D'Anieri said, which is stoke fear and confusion."I think what Putin in a way is trying to do, and probably succeeding in doing, is manipulating uncertainty so people in the West are now more worried about what might happen than he is," he said.

Putin's nuclear threats are meant to 'manipulate' global uncertainty and sow confusion &mdash; and it's working, expert says

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/StringerPeople stand on a beach next to a stranded boat which was pushed ashore by waves under the influence of typhoon Kujira, in Sanya, Hainan province, China.</div></div></div>On Thursday, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-announcement-september-17-2015-9">the Federal Reserve kept</a> its benchmark interest rate pegged at 0% to 0.25%, which is where they've been since December 2008.At first glance, it looked like nothing really changed.But the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-announcement-september-17-2015-9">Fed's statement</a> included new language that helped explain why policymakers felt it necessary to keep monetary policy so loose (emphasis ours):The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad ... This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Later on in her press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed directly to the economic slowdown and market volatility in China and other emerging markets as risks. Economists quickly flagged <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-now-monitoring-developments-abroad-2015-9">this new language</a>, and some also noted that it raises all sorts of wrinkles to the monetary policy calculus. "Global developments were brought into the discussion, "Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia writes."These developments bring in another element of uncertainty." Silvia also pointed to some internal contradiction. He argues that if, indeed, the Fed is on hold due to "developments abroad," then we probably shouldn't expect a rate hike any time soon because those problems abroad aren't going to be fixed any time soon. But <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-dot-plot-september-2015-2015-9">according to the Fed's so-called "dots,"</a> most members of the Fed think that we see a rate hike before the year is over. As he wrote in a note to clients on Thursday (emphasis ours):"We believe the resolution of the global picture is unlikely to provide much guidance in the short run. While it may be said that a great majority of the FOMC expect a rate increase by the end of this year, this appears inconsistent with any reasonable expectation of a resolution of the global picture. Perhaps the global issue is just a temporary reason for no action. If so, this simply adds to uncertainty given that the global situation has made a sudden appearance that these developments are difficult to quantify and unlikely to change much before the end of the year - yet a great majority expect to raise funds rate by the end of the year? Uncertainty persists."He's not alone in that thinking. Other analysts have also pointed out that factoring in the global situation makes things more complicated:"The key factor that held the Fed back today is China, or specifically, the possibility of a more abrupt slowdown in China which could then spill over to the global economy and financial markets," said Societe Generale's Aneta Markowska. "The Fed wants to see this question 'resolved to some extent' before it raises rates. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to be resolved over the next eight weeks which makes the October rate hike unlikely." It's worth pointing out that when it comes to the Fed's decisions, generally, its main concern is the US economy. Rarely do we hear much about its thoughts on what's going on overseas except for a few mentions in the Minutes from each meeting, released three weeks after the initial statement. But it looks like this time around, things are a tad different, as what's happening abroad is materially affecting businesses that make up the US economy.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">UBS</div></div></div>China was front and center during the past summer with its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/eu-markets-open-aug-23-2015-8">volatile</a> stock market, newly <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-employment-market-is-showing-strains-2015-8">devalued</a> currency, and slowing economic metrics.And US businesses are speaking up as reported by the Beige Book, the Fed's collection of business anecdotes from across the US."Relative to the last FOMC meeting (in June), US data have provided no smoking gun in either direction. But new axes of uncertainty are emerging," writes UBS strategist Themos Fiotakis."Market volatility and risks to growth associated with the economic slowdown in China.'China' was a frequent reference in the Beige Book of economic conditions prepare for the September meeting."And as seen in the chart to the right from UBS, the spike in the number of China references in September's Beige Book is noting to ignore.In sum, as economies become increasingly more integrated, it's increasingly difficult to ignore "developments abroad." However, its also difficult to make decisions within certain times frames when factoring in those aforementioned developments."Strong data on job creation in the US continue to suggest strongly that the current stance of Fed policy is too loose, but global considerations apparently are weighing on the Committee," Credit Suisse's Dana Saporta writes. "Indeed, the question is less 'When will the Fed initiate normalization?' and more 'Will the Fed tighten this year?'" <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/global-market-meltdown-stocks-oil-2015-8">RED EVERYWHERE: It's a global market meltdown</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="F3NTU1dzpxuF4acJ9B_9g5mwKWDZ5O4E" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

A new element of uncertainty has been brought into the global monetary policy discussion

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters</div></div></div><ul><li>President Donald Trump's policies have fueled a tenfold increase in trade uncertainty over the past year, according to an International Monetary Fund <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2019/09/09/new-index-tracks-trade-uncertainty-across-the-globe/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">report</a> out Monday.</li><li>"The index shows increased uncertainty starting around the third quarter of 2018, coinciding with a heavily publicized series of tariff increases by the United States and China," the IMF said.</li><li>The IMF estimated uncertainty in the first quarter of 2019 could reduce annual global growth by up to 0.75 percentage points. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/">Visit the Markets Insider homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>President Donald Trump's policies have fueled a record increase in trade uncertainty over the past year, according to an International Monetary Fund <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2019/09/09/new-index-tracks-trade-uncertainty-across-the-globe/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">report</a> out Monday.After two decades of stability, the IMF's trade policy uncertainty index jumped 10-fold from previous highs over the past year as the Trump administration ignited disputes with China and other countries. That uncertainty has been cited as a key force behind <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2019/07/23/sluggish-global-growth-calls-for-supportive-policies/">a slowdown in global growth</a>. "The index shows increased uncertainty starting around the third quarter of 2018, coinciding with a heavily publicized series of tariff increases by the United States and China," the IMF said of the hundreds of billions of dollars of duties levied over the past year. "Globally, the trade policy uncertainty index is rising sharply, having been stable at low levels for about 20 years."Trade uncertainty declined after the US and China <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-xi-meeting-g20-june-us-china-trade-war-ceasefire-2019-6">delayed further tariffs</a> at the G-20 meeting in December in Buenos Aires. But that reprieve was only temporary, with the index jumping significantly again after the two sides escalated tensions <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-china-trade-war-timeline-of-everything-thats-happened-2019-8">several times in recent months. </a><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="IMF" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5d76878f2e22af6e3e28cd70-960/screen shot 2019-09-09 at 11007 pm.png"></a>IMF</div></div></div>The trade dispute is expected to continue to weigh on output as it raises prices and curbs investment in the largest economies, with the IMF estimating uncertainty in the first quarter of 2019 could reduce annual global growth by up to 0.75 percentage points. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55551-CBO-outlook-update_0.pdf">has similarly forecasted</a> uncertainty would chip away at growth in the US."Data currently shows US businesses are putting expansion plans on hold because of trade uncertainty," said John Lynch, the chief investment strategist for LPL Financial.The Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-decision-fomc-first-time-since-financial-crisis-2019-7">pointed to trade uncertainty</a> as a key strain on the economy as it lowered interest rates for the first time since the global financial crisis in July. Tensions between the US and China have only escalated since then, potentially setting the stage for further easing this month. "I think it is the case that uncertainty around trade policy is causing some companies to hold back on investment," Fed Chairman Jay Powell said at a question and answer session in Switzerland on Friday.He continued: "We've been hearing quite a bit about uncertainty. For businesses to particularly make longer-term investments in plants or equipment or software, they want some certainty that the demand will be there."High levels of trade uncertainty have also been recorded among other US trading partners, the report said, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, and large European economies. The index tracks activity in 143 countries beginning in 1996. <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BI-Young-Investor-Panel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Markets Insider is looking for a panel of millennial investors. If you're active in the markets, CLICK HERE to sign up.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-fish-dolphins-sea-animals-hurricane-2018-10">What happens to fish and other sea creatures underwater during a hurricane</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Trump's policies have fueled a 10-fold increase in trade uncertainty over the past year, IMF says

After a 10.2% increase last year, <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> are expected to rise another 9.9%, <keyword id="22706139" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infomerics-Ratings" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infomerics Ratings" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infomerics Ratings">Infomerics Ratings</keyword> said in a report, attributing largely to the <keyword id="20132853" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Middle-East-crisis" source="keywords">Middle East crisis</keyword> involving Iran and Israel. The dragged <keyword id="20130144" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-crisis" source="keywords">geopolitical crisis</keyword> in the Middle East has spurred a rush into safe-haven assets such as gold. Historically, gold, as an asset, is considered a haven as it typically manages to retain or appreciate its underlying value in times of turbulence. "But this rise would now partly be offset by the reduced duty cut (in India)," said the Infomerics Ratings report. Historical trends, such as the surge during the Russia-Ukraine war, highlight gold's role as a safeguard against inflation and market instability during <keyword id="19982403" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-uncertainties" source="keywords">global uncertainties</keyword>. Prices of gold, considered safe investment bets, have seen a mild correction after the latest stellar bull run. Gold has been in demand for a considerable period, with its prices rallying to hit record highs now and then. Geopolitical conflict in West Asia that stretched for a long time, buying by several central banks, including the RBI, and physical demand, have altogether pushed gold prices northwards. Gold is a scarce commodity, and any mismatch in demand-supply conditions may invariably trigger a sharp price rise. "Gold's diverse uses, in jewellery, technology and by central banks and investors, mean different sectors of the gold market rise to prominence at different points in the global economic cycle. This diversity of demand and self-balancing nature of the gold market underpin gold's robust qualities as an investment asset," said Infomerics Ratings. Festive season buying, a weak dollar, uncertainty surrounding the US elections, and possible Fed rate cuts in September could raise prices, the report noted. In the wake of the presentation of the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> on July 23, 2024, by the Finance Minister, gold prices in India declined sharply. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed the import duty on gold from 15% to 6% in the Budget presented on July 23. Days after the Budget, gold became cheaper by Rs 6,200 in most states of India. In the capital Delhi, the price of 10 grams of 24 carat gold came down to about Rs 69,140. "With surging demand for gold, especially as the <keyword id="19896655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-season" source="keywords">wedding season</keyword> approaches, gold prices are likely to rise this financial year, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, and expectations of <keyword id="21050688" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Fed-rate-cuts" source="keywords">US Fed rate cuts</keyword>." Infomerics Ratings report said. In India, gold has strong cultural and religious significance. As per <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>, India is one of the largest consumers of gold jewellery, accounting for about 25% of global gold demand. The demand for gold in India is primarily driven by weddings and festivals, making it an integral part of the country's culture and traditions. Touching upon regulatory structure and challenges in the gold sector, the report noted that the regulatory landscape for the gold industry in India is fragmented. "The regulatory landscape for the gold industry in India is fragmented, involving multiple circulars and notifications from various authorities such as the RBI, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, DGFT, Customs, and others. This patchwork of regulations leads to confusion, inefficiency, and difficulty in compliance, as stakeholders must navigate through numerous documents to understand the rules," the report read.

You Searched For "global uncertainties" and got 10 results

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