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Climate Action 15: 2024's top global innovators powering green solutions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's tariff threats may boost Chinese exports as importers rush to beat tariffs.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to increased global manufacturing activity temporarily.</li></ul>US President-elect Donald Trump may be good for China's export business — at least temporarily.Trump, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">won</a> the presidential election, has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports to the US. He has threatened a 60% tariff on imports from China.His tariff threats are causing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">jitters</a> around the world. With Trump set to take office on January 20, factories globally may be working overtime to ship out as much as they can before any potential tariffs kick in, economists say."There could be real front-loading of activity ahead of the enacting of tariffs," said Joe Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan, on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/scx/-miq4i59/b3efe732-ef66-49ae-ad3d-5390f5279831/KAL-1-87CAN94L">podcast</a> over the weekend."Just as businesses try to get ahead of that, you could actually see a little bit of pop in global manufacturing, China manufacturing, as we head into the first quarter," he added.The demand for imports, including those from China, could also come from the US itself."Trump's return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs," wrote Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note.Some of the front-loading may already be taking place.Exports from China grew 12.7% in October from a year ago — their fastest pace in two years and far higher than their 2.4% rise in September, according to official data. Several major ports in China faced delays in September due to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://worldwidelogisticsltd.com/2024/09/18/6908/">major typhoon</a> and the backlog spilled in October.<h2 id="194ec862-e0b6-4683-b8c7-95de349dd1e3">Exports could dip with focus on trade deficits</h2>Any a temporary boost in trade would just be that: temporary.Asian export growth could still dip into the negative zone in the second half of next year amid Trump's focus on reducing US bilateral trade deficits, wrote economists at Nomura in a Friday note.Six of the top 10 countries that run deficits with the US are Asian countries, including China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and India."Higher US tariffs on Chinese exports could re-direct those exports into Asia, hurting local production," wrote the Nomura economists."More tit-for-tat trade retaliation, trade policy uncertainty and delayed policy easing in some Asian economies will also likely spill into domestic demand," they added.

Global manufacturing is poised for a temporary boom ahead of possible Trump tariffs, economists say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In his first term, Donald Trump ramped up military actions to counter China in the South China Sea.</li><li>Four years later, China has grown more confrontational, leaving less margin for error.</li></ul>As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office, one of his biggest challenges could be an issue that hardly came up on the campaign trail.The South China Sea — contested waters that China says are its own and the US says belong to no single nation — has only grown as a risk factor in the years Trump was out of government.During his first term, Trump's administration took a hard line against China, stepping up its patrols and exercises in the region, and rejecting Chinese territorial claims.Since then, China has expanded its presence in the region, growing more willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally the US is treaty-bound to defend."The margin for error has shrunk since 2016-2020," said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University."It would now take less of a spark for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties," he said.<h2 id="26704ad2-dec7-4144-a34a-9f5597d2ab7e">A vital ally</h2>Trump hasn't said how he would handle the region in his second term as president.South China Sea observers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Gregory Poling, director of Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Trump "introduces a level of personal unpredictability compared to Biden.""But there is no reason to expect any major changes to US policies on this front."<h2 id="fef0cfd6-98da-4aac-a5b1-2e1ac4fe2670">A delicate balance to strike</h2>Trump, like President Joe Biden before him, has a delicate balance to navigate.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese and Filipino coast guard vessels, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">including one</a> where swords and knives were brandished.<div type="image" title="Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea" height="2374" width="3165" msid="115257414" hostid="261" sizebytes="149654"></div>Under a treaty from 1951, the US is obliged to aid the Philippines against armed attack — something China has avoided through so-called <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a> that are not technically "armed."The Filipino secretary of national defense told CBS News' <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">"60 Minutes"</a> in September that there were ongoing discussions about exactly what would prompt US intervention.Though Trump hasn't outlined a specific South China Sea plan, he could pursue his broader foreign policy mantra of "peace through strength."That brings its own risks."Unrestrained US militarization is precisely what drives Beijing's insecurity and will continue to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea," Marston said.<h2 id="96ada877-488a-45fb-9d45-6c143317081e">An alliance at stake</h2>Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute specializing in China, said Trump would need to decide how much to commit to the region."To be globally influential, the US needs its allies," she said.Trump has often adopted a skeptical posture toward alliances he deemed unfair to the US — including its roles in helping the defense of Europe, its support for Ukraine, and its military commitments in South Korea.<div type="image" title="President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024" height="4000" width="6000" msid="115257416" hostid="261" sizebytes="444246"></div>Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at King's College London's Defense Studies Department, believes US economic interests in the South China Sea make the region an exception.A yearlong conflict in East Asia, which covers the South China Sea, could result in a 5-10% loss of US GDP, according to a 2016 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html">research report</a> by the Rand Corporation, a prominent think tank.Leoni believes the Trump administration will try to achieve balance."Both Trump's and Biden's National Security Strategy prioritized tackling the rise of China, and this is unlikely to change in the context of a more isolationist foreign policy," he said.

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea.</li><li>But any intensified US efforts could trigger a confrontation, experts told BI.</li></ul>The US has played an active security role in the South China Sea in recent years, but with China increasingly confrontational in the region, things could come to a head.US ships and aircraft have repeatedly operated within the wide expanse claimed by China to assert international rights to navigation, carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/US7thFleet/status/1834396679216181394">military</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/indopacom/status/1836389721502568770?s=46&amp;t=o-gfid_uWzVLqbUuvoCCsg">exercises</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834577777598894323">with</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836163226528350500">regional</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1835438447907295450">allies</a>, and <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirmed</a> its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a> to regional partners.It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836525608056033674">helped</a> Southeast Asian countries to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> their militaries and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836666038475489463">ties</a> with countries pursuing similar security goals.However, some Asia regional analysts warn that any further attempt to intensify US efforts in the contested waters could agitate regional partners, trigger China's ire, and backfire on the US and its partners."The last thing that any Southeast Asian country wants is for this to spill over into an active conflict," Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Asia-Pacific program, told Business Insider.On the other hand, a US pullback would enable China to bully its smaller neighbors in ways that could also trigger a military clash.They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114167295" hostid="261" sizebytes="189602"></div><h2 id="9deb4483-b117-443f-9cc5-4db4f72459bc">Keeping a balance</h2>Southeast Asian leaders have tried to keep a balance between the US and China through ASEAN, a political and economic union of 10 countries with the stated <a target="_blank" href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#asean-aims">goal</a> of "promoting regional peace and stability."ASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/asean-summit-laos-myanmar-south-china-sea-254fe0f7f8b484df5bdb05c0557fccd6">discuss</a> territorial tensions in the South China Sea. China has made expansive and legally dubious claims to nearly all of the sea, which is a major shipping route and boasts natural resources like fish and oil fields.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and ones from the Philippines, including one <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter</a> where swords and knives were brandished and a Filipino soldier reportedly lost a thumb.Speaking at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-the-asean-summit-with-the-united-states/">ASEAN summit</a>, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders that the US was concerned about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" activities in the disputed waters."The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight in the Indo-Pacific," he added.The US is the only military with the size and sophistication to push back on China's forces, however, any US attempt to step up its role in the region could affect the delicate balance.Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate in international relations at the Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, said all 10 ASEAN countries have their own security interests and different views about the US' role in the region.While countries that keep close ties to the US, like Singapore, the Philippines, and to some extent Vietnam, would be "very" supportive of increased US security in the region, other countries that fear a larger US military presence in the South China Sea, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and perhaps Cambodia, would be "more vocally" opposed to it, he said.Another aspect is that China's wide claims don't directly affect Indonesia and Cambodia, meaning they have less to lose.<div type="image" title="An infographic of the disputed South China Sea on January 06, 2023." height="4138" width="5697" msid="114167294" hostid="261" sizebytes="390018"></div><h2 id="1c59d1ef-370d-4010-a9b6-a8ba1510690f">A bipartisan issue</h2>Ramping up the US security role in the South China Sea without upsetting the balance of power is "a challenge that dates back to at least the Bush administration," Marston said, referring to the administration of George W. Bush.Following 9/11, the Bush administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-023-00486-0#Fn5">stepped up</a> its security involvement in the region by strengthening the US military presence there and increasing diplomatic ties with key ASEAN nations.The Obama administration then pursued a policy of strategic "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific">rebalancing</a>," with the underlying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12115">goal</a> of preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region.The Trump administration took a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/08/from-pivot-to-defiance-american-policy-shift-in-the-south-china-sea/">harder line</a>, stepping up its freedom of navigation patrols, conducting naval exercises in the region, and at one point <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Admin/Article/2186392/pacific-fleet-submarines-lethal-agile-underway/">deploying</a> all of its forward-deployed nuclear attack submarines into the Western Pacific.Marston said the Biden administration has adopted elements of Obama's policy and tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Yet, China has remained undeterred in its efforts to dominate the contested islands, and has grown more aggressive in encounters with regional claimants, notably the Philippines."It's really plagued multiple administrations," Martson said.<h2 id="5c410507-89c1-4bdb-b90b-5027be104561">A polarized region</h2>Gregory B. Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told BI that the South China Sea has served as a "wedge" within ASEAN because only four out of 10 countries have a direct stake in it."Frankly, a lot of them would rather the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia just give up their rights in order to make this issue go away so they can get back to trading and investing with China," he said.According to Chatham House's Hayton, increased US intervention could further split the alliance and also potentially drag the US into a conflict with China that jeopardizes Southeast Asian countries' economies.The US might be called in to help enforce <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/">freedom of navigation</a> or defend its partners in the event of a military confrontation between China and its neighbors.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, hinted at this last August, saying the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea following clashes with China in recent months.Even without a boosted US presence, the US could be dragged into a regional confrontation via its partners.At a minimum, Hayton said a conflict would trigger disruptions to shipping, supply lines, and supply chains and hurt the region's economic growth, "even before we start to think about military actions."A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.<h2 id="aba6b3de-fedf-479e-9f6f-ff50a1a9a19a">Escalating tensions</h2>Tensions in the region have been escalating over the past few months, especially between China and the Philippines.A month after the armed encounter, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and in August, a Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block the delivery of supplies to its soldiers stationed in the contested Sabina Shoal.Earlier this week, the Philippines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/09/da-bfar-statement-on-the-recent-ccg-water-cannon-incident-in-bajo-de-masinloc/">said</a> three Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a navy ship fired water cannons toward two civilian vessels while they were on a routine resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea.<div type="image" title="A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel during an incident in&#xa0;the South&#xa0;China&#xa0;Sea on August 19, 2024." height="1125" width="2000" msid="114167292" hostid="261" sizebytes="36066"></div>Poling described these as "the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988," and added that the Philippines' "natural" response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.Under a Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a>.In an interview with CBS News <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">60 Minutes</a> last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.Meanwhile, according to Poling, China's official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it."That's one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate," he said.A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East."But there's no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing," Poling added.

Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

<keyword id="19896016" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="new-delhi" source="keywords">New Delhi</keyword> [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], March 11 (ANI): Global rating agency Moody's expects India's economic growth in 2024-25 growth above that of other emerging market G20 peers, given its domestic demand managed to sustain momentum. India's real GDP growth accelerated to 8.4 per cent year over year in the October-December quarter of 2023, up from upwardly revised prints of 8.1 per cent in July-September and 8.2 per cent in April-June. The global rating agency Moody's attributed India's firm growth primarily to solid capital expenditure, defying private consumption which remained "sluggish" amid still-weak rural demand. On the supply side, an 11.6 per cent surge in manufacturing output and strong service sector activity more than offset a decline in agricultural output in India, it said. Even so, it said high-frequency indicators, including expanding <keyword id="20905252" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-managers" source="keywords">Purchasing Managers</keyword>' Index (PMI), rising auto sales, consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth, suggest that the economy's strong October-December momentum carried into January-March this year. "Some of the large emerging market (EMs) countries stood out in 2023 for their resilient economies amid high-interest rates, exchange rate volatility, subdued capital flows and muted external demand. This year, we expect growth to slow across several major EMs as the economies transition to a post-pandemic steady growth path," Moody's said in its Macro Monday report, chaptered 'G-20 emerging markets are poised for growth stabilization'. In its recently published <keyword id="20905253" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-macro-outlook" source="keywords">Global Macro Outlook</keyword>, it forecasted G20 emerging market growth to stabilize around 4.0 per cent in 2024 and 2025, down from 4.7 per cent in 2023 as global monetary policy gradually normalises. On an annual basis, domestic demand was the primary engine of growth in several G20 emerging markets. "We believe growth cycles in India and Indonesia are at their peak, Brazil and Mexico are likely past their peak, and <keyword id="19899437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-africa" source="keywords">South Africa</keyword>'s growth has likely troughed. Nevertheless, we expect relatively stable growth at close to potential in 2024 and 2025 for most G-20 EMs." On the policy side, the rating agency expects continuity after the general election in April-May and continued focus on infrastructure development. It forecasts India's real GDP to grow about 6.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.4 per cent in 2025, from 7.7 per cent in 2023. India's GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24 and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent during the preceding two quarters - April-June and July-September. The strength of domestic demand has driven the economy to a 7 per cent plus growth rate in the last three years. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively. In the next three years, India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of USD 5 trillion. India can aspire to become a USD 7 trillion economy in the next six to seven years (by 2030), India's finance ministry recently asserted. (ANI)

Domestic demand to keep India's growth above other G20 emerging markets: Moody's

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19916007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Korea" source="keywords">South Korea</keyword> says North Korean troops are being trained by <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> to fight in Ukraine.</li><li>The <keyword id="19900701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kremlin" source="keywords">Kremlin</keyword> said the cooperation between the two was "within the framework of international law."</li></ul>The Kremlin's alliance with <keyword id="19910206" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="North-Korea" source="keywords">North Korea</keyword> may have bolstered its campaign in Ukraine, but it's come at a potentially serious cost. South Korea's government this week signaled its fury over the growing alliance between the two countries. In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241021004252315?section=national/diplomacy">meeting</a> with Russia ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">North Korean soldiers which it said were being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.</a> A senior official in the office of <keyword id="19905053" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Yoon-Suk-Yeol" source="keywords">Yoon Suk Yeol</keyword>, South Korea's president, said on Tuesday that South Korea is now mulling sending weapons to help <keyword id="20506587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukrainian-troops" source="keywords">Ukrainian troops</keyword>, reports said. In response, the Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said the alliance between Russia and North Korea was "within the framework of international law." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the North Korea-Russia alliance "should not worry anyone." He also dismissed reports of the troop deployment as "contradictory." Earlier that day South Korea had placed pressure on the Kremlin, releasing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/south-korean-satellite-confirms-1-500-dprk-special-forces-deployment-to-russia/ar-AA1sAYVp">satellite images that </a>it said showed 1,500 North Korean military personnel being sent to Russia. Analysts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024">Insitute for the Study of War, a US think tank,</a> said that the Kremlin appears worried about the backlash from Seoul. "The Kremlin's apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul's potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support, and the implications of worsened relations with Seoul for Russian security interests in the Asia Pacific region," its analysts wrote on Monday. <div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin share a toast at a banquet table." height="859" width="1341" msid="114472694" hostid="261"></div><h2>Russia's dangerous new alliance</h2>For decades, South Korea has been in an uneasy standoff with its isolated and authoritarian neighbor, North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly menaced the South with the prospect of attack, while Seoul and its ally, the US, have sought to isolate North Korea and stymie its nuclear weapons program. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the precarious balance of power in East Asia. Russia formed a new military alliance with North Korea to secure badly needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering campaign in Ukraine. South Korea is increasingly concerned about the technological capabilities and security guarantees North Korea has likely gained from Russia in return. Russia, previously a backer of sanctions designed to curtail North Korea's nuclear program, is now helping North Korea evade them. Analysts from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-korea-war-threatens-trillions-for-global-economy/">Bloomberg said in June </a>a war on the Korean peninsula could result in the loss of millions of human lives, and cost the global economy around $4 trillion. South Korea is a semiconductor and electronics manufacturing hub, meaning a disruption to its economy could have massive knock-on global effects. "The Ukraine war and its spillover to the Korean peninsula are taking a hard toll on the Seoul-Moscow relationship," wrote analyst Ellen Kim of the Center<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/seoul-moscow-relations-dangerous-slippery-slope"> for Strategic and International Studies in February.</a> Noting that "several factors could push the ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relations off the cliff." <h2>South Korea says it could arm Ukraine</h2>In response to Russia's strengthened relationship with North Korea, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in its battle against the Russian invasion. Russia's new defense treaty with North Korea in June seemed to mark a tipping point, with South Korea saying that it could overturn its long-standing ban on sending military assistance to countries at war to help Ukraine. It's a threat South Korea reiterated Tuesday, as officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia was a "grave security threat." It's a worrying prospect for Russia, with South Korea holding vast stockpiles of weapons that could help tip the war in Kyiv's favor. South Korea has large numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a weapon Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/asia/leak-pentagon-south-korea-ukraine.html">The New York Times in 2023</a> reported that President Joe Biden has pressured South Korea to help it arm Ukraine with desperately needed shells, but South Korea had at that point hesistated. But in response to the latest escalation in North Korea's collaboration with Russia, South Korea again hinted that nothing was off the table as it weighed how to respond. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said in a statement Monday that the country would respond with "all available means in cooperation with the international community to any acts that threaten the core interests of South Korea." Correction: October 23, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the source describing South Korea's plans. It was a senior official in the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol; not an official named Yoon Suk Yeol.

Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers' strike, and Middle East conflict threaten to upend the US economy.</li><li>Oil prices are up as conflict widens between Israel and Iran.</li></ul>A sudden flurry of global developments has the US economy staring down a troubling trifecta of major crises.Devastation from Hurricane Helene, a dockworkers' strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East all threaten to scramble supply chains and inflate prices. The confluence of events comes just as the US economy is recovering from a years-long bout of elevated inflation. Coupled with a cooling but still-strong labor market, it looked possible the US would avoid a recession. These events could threaten that.While the effects of Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10"> missile</a> attack on Israel on Tuesday are more speculative, the other two crises happening on American soil could have more predictable impacts. Experts point to direct impacts on the prices of goods like oil, food, and industrial equipment as well as infrastructure damage that would create knock-on effects across industries.For now, it's a waiting game. Many of the effects depend on how long the strike and cleanup last and how quickly the parties responsible for resolving them can act.<h2 id="bb66dc7c-8a7f-46f6-83fe-f763c7971b08">1. Escalation in the Middle East</h2>On Tuesday, the risk of a full-blown war between Iran and Israel escalated when Iran <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile</a> attack on its adversary.It came less than a day after Israel ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah with an invasion of southern Lebanon. The heightening conflict also threatens to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-severe-consequences-for-iran-after-attack-on-israel-2024-10">further entangle the US</a>, which announced it's sending additional fighter jets and thousands of troops to the Middle East to defend Israel and reinforce US troops already in the region.Since Iran's offensive, the price of oil has surged up, raising concerns that a broader conflict could push oil and gas prices higher. When petroleum prices rise, that also impacts the cost of plastics, which could raise prices on a range of goods. Some experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/israel-iranian-oil-refineries-retaliatory-strikes">warn that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities</a> in potential retaliatory attacks, which could risk further oil price increases."History would say that when there is conflict in the region, the prices of petroleum remain elevated and could continue to rise," Douglas Kent, an executive vice president at the Association for Supply Chain Management, told Business Insider.<h2 id="74292a69-7822-4de1-bb2c-cdde4749d751">2. Dockworkers on strike</h2>Also on Tuesday, dockworkers at all the eastern US ports from Maine to Texas went on strike, threatening <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">a slew of adverse economic impacts</a>, including increased prices on key goods ahead of the holiday shopping season.About 30% of goods imported to and exported from the US pass through the East Coast and Gulf ports, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, along with about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">half of all US ocean imports</a>. The strike could cause shortages of goods and push consumer prices up, but how much depends entirely on how long the work stoppage lasts, experts say.A few days of snarled supply chains likely wouldn't be a major hit to the economy, while a week or longer could have major impacts. Every day, the work stoppage is costing the economy up to $4.5 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts. If the strike goes for at least two weeks, it may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*w94t9f*_ga*MTM5OTQyNzAxOS4xNjc1MDExMTIw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg4MTM4OC4zNTQuMS4xNzI3ODgzOTYyLjQ5LjAuMA..">increase inflation.</a> If it lasts a month, it could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-impact-costs-us-economy-recession-outlook-shipping-delay-2024-10">cause a recession</a>.And the strike will also have knock-on impacts. For every day the ports are closed, it will take an estimated five days for supply chains to get back to normal, Kent said."We are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode about what the impacts are going to be," Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council under Biden, told BI. "If the strike goes on for one day or three days, it could take two weeks for some companies to recover, some industries to recover, it could take months for others to fully recover."Some of the imported consumer goods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-products-most-likely-to-be-impacted-by-port-strike-2024-9">most vulnerable to the port closures</a> include perishable foods like fresh fruits and vegetables, wine, beer, liquor, toys, tires, furniture, and raw commodities like salt, sugar, and gypsum. Kent noted that automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial equipment supply chains are also vulnerable. US meat, dairy, and poultry exports <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-port-strike-hurt-agriculture-livestorck-dairy-farmers-presidential-election-2024-10">could also be disrupted</a>, as well as coal and heavy agricultural equipment.How much the strike impacts prices depends on how much of a cushion companies have built to deal with any bottlenecks. With the memory of pandemic supply chain crises still fresh, many businesses have become better prepared for disruptions by importing goods ahead of schedule in anticipation of the strike or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-of-long-beach-achieves-busiest-month-on-record-09-12-2024/">diverting shipments</a> to West Coast ports."The 2020 disruption presented unforeseen challenges but encouraged many firms to diversify their supply chain and seek backup sourcing: preparation that will likely soften the blow of the dockworker strike," Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, said in a statement.But mitigation efforts, including redirecting shipments, cost money and push prices up. Bottlenecks also encourage carriers to raise their prices, increasing retail and consumer goods prices, Kent said.Fazili said she's confident the dockworkers' union — the International Longshoremen's Association — and the organization representing their employers — the United States Maritime Alliance — can come to a deal to raise wages and improve benefits for workers. With the election looming, Biden administration officials are particularly incentivized to grease the wheels of their negotiations.<h2 id="b5a7373b-dcda-4543-bf11-a8ea2a739cbd">3. Natural disaster strikes the South</h2>All of this comes as Southern states are scrambling to handle the fallout from a superstorm with billions of dollars in damage. Dozens of people have been killed in the flooding, landslides, and high winds wrought by Hurricane Helene, which washed out an untold number of roads, destroyed homes, and devastated entire towns. Rescue and recovery efforts are still underway, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/north-carolina-hurricane-helene-missing-people-finder-victims-survivors/275-d811bbc2-754d-4637-b156-7e4af6e1eadb">hundreds of people still missing</a>, particularly in North Carolina.The storm will likely have far-reaching economic impacts, including the immediate costs of providing emergency services for thousands of residents left homeless or without power or water, and the longer-term costs of rebuilding roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Helene has likely caused between $15 billion and $26 billion in damage to property on top of about $5 billion to $8 billion in lost economic output, according to Moody's Analytics.In the immediate wake of the storm, a slew of residents across the affected states have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-gouging-complaints-surge-hurricane-helene-states-fuel-water-hotels-2024-10">reported price gouging</a> by hotels, gas stations, and grocery stores. The hurricane has also disrupted some supply chains, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-iv-fluid-shortage-health-supply-chain">healthcare supplies</a> and high-purity quartz needed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">for semiconductor manufacturing</a>."The combination of these events just reemphasizes how important it is for the private sector and companies, which are the ones that control supply chains, to move away from just-in-time and from efficiency only and to recognize that disruptions are on the rise and they ought to be better prepared for that," Fazili said.But the superstorm also threatens much longer-term economic damage, hitting the property insurance industry and the federal flood insurance program. Homeowners in affected areas will likely deal with rising property insurance costs or even lose coverage altogether, experts say."In the short run, the most costly element of the disaster is the damage to homes, property and infrastructure," Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, told BI. "Longer term, the disaster itself is unlikely to drive people out of the hardest-hit areas, but insurance premiums could rise, denting affordability. This would be especially difficult for Florida, where many private insurers have already left the state."

A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

The <keyword id="22667872" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mpox-outbreak" source="keywords">mpox outbreak</keyword> in <keyword id="19924003" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="africa" source="keywords">Africa</keyword> is yet another example of how <keyword id="20040661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infectious-diseases" source="keywords">infectious diseases</keyword>, perceived to be "someone else's problem", and affecting mainly poor, developing countries, may suddenly pose unexpected global threats. Other examples of <keyword id="22817243" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="neglected-diseases" source="keywords">neglected diseases</keyword> include the West Nile, Zika and Chikungunya viruses. Mpox was discovered in 1958 (in captive monkeys, hence the original misnomer "monkeypox") and the first human case was identified in 1970. Then, for decades it was largely neglected by the scientific and public health communities, regarded as an uncommon infection in remote rural areas in tropical Africa, without relevance for the rest of the world. When a massive mpox outbreak hit developed countries in 2022, increased research funding led to a surge in scientific studies. On just one medical search engine, there's been more research produced since April 2022 than in the preceding 60 years. The 2022-23 global mpox outbreak happened despite repeated calls from African researchers for increased global investment in diagnostic, therapeutic and infection prevention tools for mpox. The WHO has now declared the current upsurge of mpox in central Africa a <keyword id="21952478" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-health-emergency" source="keywords">public health emergency</keyword> of international concern. This is the highest alert level for events that constitute a public health risk to other countries and requires a coordinated international response. Mpox's recent history is yet another reminder that an infectious disease in one corner of the world should not be regarded as someone else's problem, as it can suddenly start to spread fast and far. It also highlights global inequities in resource allocation and access to vaccines, diagnostics and treatments. These were made available in many industrialised countries and helped curb the global outbreak, but are still largely lacking in most of Africa. <h2>The 2022 outbreak: a total surprise</h2>The disease has been renamed "mpox" but the name of the virus, for now, remains "monkeypox" (MPXV). It is closely related to the smallpox virus. MPXV was considered a <keyword id="21311828" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="zoonotic-disease" source="keywords">zoonotic disease</keyword> endemic in parts of central and west Africa. It was acquired mainly through close contact with wild mammals, especially handling bush meat, but there was no sustained human-to-human transmission. Only very occasionally were cases seen outside the endemic areas, due to infected travellers or import of infected small mammals. This changed abruptly in 2022: a massive, rapidly evolving global outbreak caused over 99,000 laboratory-confirmed cases in 116 countries. At its peak in August 2022, over 6,000 cases were reported each week. This outbreak came as a total surprise: most cases were reported from non-endemic countries, mostly in men who have sex with men, who had become infected during recent sexual encounters. Even though most cases were clinically not particularly severe and the death toll stands at just over 200, the global outbreak was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the <keyword id="19896311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-health-organization" source="keywords">World Health Organization</keyword> on 23 July, 2022. Fortunately, case numbers soon plummeted due to a combination of behavioural changes and vaccination in at-risk groups. Modern vaccines and antiviral drugs with activity against mpox were made available in many affected high-income countries. These had been developed and stockpiled in the US and Europe, mostly in preparation for a potential bioweapon attack using a poxvirus. The global outbreak in 2022 was caused by clade II of MPXV, which is endemic in west Africa and not as virulent as clade I MPXV, which so far has only been seen in the Congo Basin. That first mpox public health emergency of international concern was declared over in May 2023. Clade II MPXV infections are still occurring globally, but the worst seems over - for now. Complacency would be misguided, as illustrated by the current mpox outbreak that is gathering steam. <h2>Upsurge in Africa</h2>The African region is experiencing an upsurge in mpox cases, which started in 2023. As the continent which includes the areas where mpox has been endemic for a long time, Africa now presents a complex mosaic. The current clade I MPXV (formerly called Congo Basin strain) is more virulent than the clade II (west African) strain, resulting in a higher case fatality rate. The ongoing outbreak has its epicentre in South Kivu province, eastern DRC, and has the potential to fuel a large pandemic. It has a distinct epidemiological pattern with sustained chains of human-to-human transmission, often via the sexual route. It may have increased transmissibility (we don't know yet). The virus which causes it is the newly defined clade Ib lineage. It displays mutations that are the hallmark of human-to-human spread that is estimated to have been happening since September 2023. Case numbers are rising rapidly, even though many suspected cases are likely not tested and thus not counted as confirmed. Complicating matters, a commonly used test was found to miss infections with this lineage of the virus. It affects mostly adults. The case fatality rate is higher than it was in the 2022 global outbreak. Already, this outbreak has resulted in mpox cases occurring in several neighbouring countries, including some (like Kenya), with no previous record of mpox. The challenge is enormous. The eastern DRC is an area beset by multiple problems. This includes natural disasters, violence and infectious diseases including measles, cholera and poliomyelitis for the DRC. In recent years the second-largest Ebola outbreak ever took place in the wider area and, despite the availability of vaccines and treatments, posed considerable challenges. <h2>What needs to happen</h2>Equitable access to diagnostic tests, vaccines and antiviral treatments requires political commitment and financial investments. Scientific investigations are needed to learn more about exposure settings, transmission routes and clinical presentations. It's important to find the best ways to make these interventions. There is no doubt that a disease in one corner of the world can suddenly become a global heath threat. It's time the global health system woke up to this reality.

Mpox outbreak in Africa was neglected - it could now turn into the next global pandemic

<ul class="summary-list"><li>South Korean companies invested more in the US in 2023 than any other country, per UN data.</li><li>The Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act offer financial incentives for American-manufactured EVs, batteries, and chips.</li></ul>South Korean companies are investing billions of dollars in the US to take advantage of two big laws meant to boost American manufacturing.According to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/dbc8208c-7fe2-41bf-a50d-f66abc65fde6">Financial Times</a> analysis of United Nations data, South Korean companies invested $21.5 billion in US projects in 2023, more than any other country. South Korea overtook Taiwan, which held the top spot in 2022.Samsung, LG, and Hyundai are among the South Korean companies committing billions of dollars to build facilities in the US to manufacture electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductor chips. Much of the money is flowing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-south-texas-florida-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-2023-12">southern states</a>, boosting jobs in the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-inflation-reduction-act-clean-energy-2024-9">Battery Belt</a>.Yeo Han-koo, former trade minister of the Republic of Korea and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, told Business Insider that US and South Korean interests in emerging technologies are perfectly aligned.Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the Biden administration is aiming to decouple US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-economy-election-janet-yellen-manufacturing-2024-4">supply chains from China</a> to compete in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-electric-vehicles-government-subsidies-win-ev-race-byd-tesla-2024-6">EV and chips race</a>. Meanwhile, South Korea — a longtime US ally — aims to build its global profile in high-tech and auto manufacturing.In particular, Yeo said, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act provide financial incentives for companies to invest in green technology in the US, bolstering South Korean commitments."In addition to these new geopolitical factors, these massive subsidies and tax incentives from the IRA and the CHIPS and Science Act really provide a good motivation for these Korean companies to invest in the US," Yeo said.<h2 id="b759499f-886b-4c14-8bae-91a8ccc1e284">South Korean companies are creating green tech jobs in the US</h2>According to the Financial Times analysis, over half of South Korea's outbound investments went to the US in 2023, up from 18% in 2019. During that same time, South Korean outbound investment in China decreased from 11% to 1%.Over a third of Korean project announcements in the US in 2023 were in the automotive or electronics sectors, including a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-inflation-reduction-act-clean-energy-2024-9">Kia plant in Georgia</a> set to take advantage of the IRA's $7,500 tax credit for buyers of US-made EVs.Similarly, in February, Hyundai <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hyundai-announces-new-production-start-date-at-metaplant-america-during-hyundai-day-in-georgia-302071754.html#:~:text=Hyundai%20Motor%20Group%20is%20investing,that%20will%20employ%203%2C500%20workers.">announced</a> over $7 billion in investment in production facilities in Georgia. The company estimates their investments will create nearly 40,000 jobs in the state.And South Korean investments span across multiple states, mainly in the South. Samsung <a target="_blank" href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/new-samsung-semiconductor-plant-in-taylor-texas/#:~:text=Samsung%20invested%20approximately%20%2417%20billion,artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20purposes">invested</a> $17 billion in a semiconductor plant in Texas that is expected to create thousands of jobs. LG recently <a target="_blank" href="https://www.queencreekaz.gov/Home/Components/News/News/13041/13">invested</a> $5.5 billion in building a battery plant in Arizona.Additionally, SK Hynix, Inc. <a target="_blank" href="https://news.skhynix.com/sk-hynix-signs-investment-agreement-of-advanced-chip-packaging-with-indiana/">announced</a> a $3.87 billion plant in Indiana to produce chips for AI products. The plant is expected to create nearly 1,000 jobs by 2030.Yeo said South Korea has an interest in becoming a competing player in emerging technologies, and the US needs allies to bolster its manufacturing."Reviving US manufacturing will be one of the most important economic policy objectives, but I mean, the US cannot do it alone," Yeo said. "The US needs a kind of partner in rebuilding this manufacturing, especially in these emerging new industries and supply chains."In the past decade, South Korean companies have <a target="_blank" href="https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/business/SouthKorea-Profile.pdf">created</a> about 7,000 jobs in Texas and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://iedc.in.gov/events/news/details/2024/03/04/indiana-to-promote-booming-battery-ev-ecosystems-to-industry-leaders-in-south-korea">nearly 8,000 jobs</a> in Indiana.As the US reenergizes its manufacturing industries, Biden's inflation-fighting laws include provisions excluding businesses with supply chains connected with "foreign entities of concern," like China, Yeo said, to guarantee competition."Once you get the US subsidies, you are limited in terms of your flexibility to invest in China," Yeo said.Those provisions have incentivized South Korean companies to divert from China and focus more on the US.In May, South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced it committed $7 billion toward moving its supply chains away from China to further comply with US rules, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/south-korea-plans-7-billion-push-to-pivot-ev-battery-industry-away-from-china-1fa1f189">The Wall Street Journal</a>.Furthermore, as high-tech products like EV batteries become a primary focus for US manufacturing, it makes business sense for South Korean companies to invest in plants directly in the US, Yeo said."These batteries, for example, are very bulky products," Yeo said, referring to EV batteries, which he said are cumbersome to ship. "So I think in the case of the battery industry, I think it also makes commercial sense to locate those factories close to the final market or end users."South Korean companies like LG and Samsung are designed to be global, Yeo said, and the US is often a target destination for large corporations.According to World Bank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=US">data</a>, the US population is above 330 million, while South Korea's population is just above 50 million."The US is the biggest market right now, and also still, the US market is considered to be very sophisticated," Yeo said. "When these global companies roll out new products, new technologies, they need to test it in the US market."To be sure, Yeo said it's important to recognize that trade is a complicated picture. China has been and continues to be one of South Korea's largest trading partners. While this moment provides business opportunities for South Korean companies in the US, the looming geopolitical tension with China creates uncertainty."With this geopolitical tension arising between the US and China, a lot of Korean businesses who had invested in China and had big kind of China operation are really kind of being squeezed between the US and China," he said.South Korean companies are committing to the US right now, but Yeo said political uncertainty over the presidential election encourages caution for international business."Korean companies have a first-mover advantage at the moment, but now also they are facing potential risk, depending on the outcome of the November election in the US," Yeo said.Nonetheless, Yeo said these investments would likely not make business sense without the subsidies and incentives provided by the Biden Administration's focus on manufacturing."Because of this combination of all these factors you see right now," he said, "Korean investments are really flooding into the US market." Are you trying to get a job building EVs or AI chips? Reach out at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jtowfighi@businessinsider.com">jtowfighi@businessinsider.com</a>

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Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

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A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

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Mpox outbreak in Africa was neglected - it could now turn into the next global pandemic

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South Korea is going big on American manufacturing. The Battery Belt could benefit the most.

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