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Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers' strike, and Middle East conflict threaten to upend the US economy.</li><li>Oil prices are up as conflict widens between Israel and Iran.</li></ul>A sudden flurry of global developments has the US economy staring down a troubling trifecta of major crises.Devastation from Hurricane Helene, a dockworkers' strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East all threaten to scramble supply chains and inflate prices. The confluence of events comes just as the US economy is recovering from a years-long bout of elevated inflation. Coupled with a cooling but still-strong labor market, it looked possible the US would avoid a recession. These events could threaten that.While the effects of Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10"> missile</a> attack on Israel on Tuesday are more speculative, the other two crises happening on American soil could have more predictable impacts. Experts point to direct impacts on the prices of goods like oil, food, and industrial equipment as well as infrastructure damage that would create knock-on effects across industries.For now, it's a waiting game. Many of the effects depend on how long the strike and cleanup last and how quickly the parties responsible for resolving them can act.<h2 id="bb66dc7c-8a7f-46f6-83fe-f763c7971b08">1. Escalation in the Middle East</h2>On Tuesday, the risk of a full-blown war between Iran and Israel escalated when Iran <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile</a> attack on its adversary.It came less than a day after Israel ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah with an invasion of southern Lebanon. The heightening conflict also threatens to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-severe-consequences-for-iran-after-attack-on-israel-2024-10">further entangle the US</a>, which announced it's sending additional fighter jets and thousands of troops to the Middle East to defend Israel and reinforce US troops already in the region.Since Iran's offensive, the price of oil has surged up, raising concerns that a broader conflict could push oil and gas prices higher. When petroleum prices rise, that also impacts the cost of plastics, which could raise prices on a range of goods. Some experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/israel-iranian-oil-refineries-retaliatory-strikes">warn that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities</a> in potential retaliatory attacks, which could risk further oil price increases."History would say that when there is conflict in the region, the prices of petroleum remain elevated and could continue to rise," Douglas Kent, an executive vice president at the Association for Supply Chain Management, told Business Insider.<h2 id="74292a69-7822-4de1-bb2c-cdde4749d751">2. Dockworkers on strike</h2>Also on Tuesday, dockworkers at all the eastern US ports from Maine to Texas went on strike, threatening <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">a slew of adverse economic impacts</a>, including increased prices on key goods ahead of the holiday shopping season.About 30% of goods imported to and exported from the US pass through the East Coast and Gulf ports, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, along with about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">half of all US ocean imports</a>. The strike could cause shortages of goods and push consumer prices up, but how much depends entirely on how long the work stoppage lasts, experts say.A few days of snarled supply chains likely wouldn't be a major hit to the economy, while a week or longer could have major impacts. Every day, the work stoppage is costing the economy up to $4.5 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts. If the strike goes for at least two weeks, it may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*w94t9f*_ga*MTM5OTQyNzAxOS4xNjc1MDExMTIw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg4MTM4OC4zNTQuMS4xNzI3ODgzOTYyLjQ5LjAuMA..">increase inflation.</a> If it lasts a month, it could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-impact-costs-us-economy-recession-outlook-shipping-delay-2024-10">cause a recession</a>.And the strike will also have knock-on impacts. For every day the ports are closed, it will take an estimated five days for supply chains to get back to normal, Kent said."We are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode about what the impacts are going to be," Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council under Biden, told BI. "If the strike goes on for one day or three days, it could take two weeks for some companies to recover, some industries to recover, it could take months for others to fully recover."Some of the imported consumer goods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-products-most-likely-to-be-impacted-by-port-strike-2024-9">most vulnerable to the port closures</a> include perishable foods like fresh fruits and vegetables, wine, beer, liquor, toys, tires, furniture, and raw commodities like salt, sugar, and gypsum. Kent noted that automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial equipment supply chains are also vulnerable. US meat, dairy, and poultry exports <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-port-strike-hurt-agriculture-livestorck-dairy-farmers-presidential-election-2024-10">could also be disrupted</a>, as well as coal and heavy agricultural equipment.How much the strike impacts prices depends on how much of a cushion companies have built to deal with any bottlenecks. With the memory of pandemic supply chain crises still fresh, many businesses have become better prepared for disruptions by importing goods ahead of schedule in anticipation of the strike or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-of-long-beach-achieves-busiest-month-on-record-09-12-2024/">diverting shipments</a> to West Coast ports."The 2020 disruption presented unforeseen challenges but encouraged many firms to diversify their supply chain and seek backup sourcing: preparation that will likely soften the blow of the dockworker strike," Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, said in a statement.But mitigation efforts, including redirecting shipments, cost money and push prices up. Bottlenecks also encourage carriers to raise their prices, increasing retail and consumer goods prices, Kent said.Fazili said she's confident the dockworkers' union — the International Longshoremen's Association — and the organization representing their employers — the United States Maritime Alliance — can come to a deal to raise wages and improve benefits for workers. With the election looming, Biden administration officials are particularly incentivized to grease the wheels of their negotiations.<h2 id="b5a7373b-dcda-4543-bf11-a8ea2a739cbd">3. Natural disaster strikes the South</h2>All of this comes as Southern states are scrambling to handle the fallout from a superstorm with billions of dollars in damage. Dozens of people have been killed in the flooding, landslides, and high winds wrought by Hurricane Helene, which washed out an untold number of roads, destroyed homes, and devastated entire towns. Rescue and recovery efforts are still underway, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/north-carolina-hurricane-helene-missing-people-finder-victims-survivors/275-d811bbc2-754d-4637-b156-7e4af6e1eadb">hundreds of people still missing</a>, particularly in North Carolina.The storm will likely have far-reaching economic impacts, including the immediate costs of providing emergency services for thousands of residents left homeless or without power or water, and the longer-term costs of rebuilding roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Helene has likely caused between $15 billion and $26 billion in damage to property on top of about $5 billion to $8 billion in lost economic output, according to Moody's Analytics.In the immediate wake of the storm, a slew of residents across the affected states have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-gouging-complaints-surge-hurricane-helene-states-fuel-water-hotels-2024-10">reported price gouging</a> by hotels, gas stations, and grocery stores. The hurricane has also disrupted some supply chains, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-iv-fluid-shortage-health-supply-chain">healthcare supplies</a> and high-purity quartz needed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">for semiconductor manufacturing</a>."The combination of these events just reemphasizes how important it is for the private sector and companies, which are the ones that control supply chains, to move away from just-in-time and from efficiency only and to recognize that disruptions are on the rise and they ought to be better prepared for that," Fazili said.But the superstorm also threatens much longer-term economic damage, hitting the property insurance industry and the federal flood insurance program. Homeowners in affected areas will likely deal with rising property insurance costs or even lose coverage altogether, experts say."In the short run, the most costly element of the disaster is the damage to homes, property and infrastructure," Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, told BI. "Longer term, the disaster itself is unlikely to drive people out of the hardest-hit areas, but insurance premiums could rise, denting affordability. This would be especially difficult for Florida, where many private insurers have already left the state."

A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, congratulated Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das for bagging an A+ grade rating in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024. Prime Minister in a post on social media "X" said, "Congratulations to RBI Governor Shri @DasShaktikanta for this feat, and that too for the second time. This is a recognition of his leadership at the RBI and his work towards ensuring <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and stability." <keyword id="20850250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Das" source="keywords">RBI Governor Das</keyword> has been awarded the A+ grade rating for the second consecutive year. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as <keyword id="21364628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-control" source="keywords">inflation control</keyword>, economic growth goals, currency stability and <keyword id="22859834" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-management" source="keywords">interest rate management</keyword>. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. "Central bankers have waged war against <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> over the past few years, wielding their primary weapon: higher interest rates. Now, countries around the world are witnessing the tangible results of these efforts, as inflation has dropped significantly," said Global Finance founder and editorial director Joseph Giarraputo. The RBI has been successful in controlling the larger macroeconomic situations in the country. The apex bank is actively working to push economic growth through its <keyword id="20900764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policies" source="keywords">monetary policies</keyword>. The RBI recently kept the the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent after the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier this month. The move reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Announcing the monetary policy decisions, Das had said that the decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. RBI Governor Das said that the inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. The Q1 <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent, as announced by the RBI Governor. India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. In line with the moderation in retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for July 2024 (over July 2023).

PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

<keyword id="19934680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Amul" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Amul" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Amul">Amul</keyword>, has been recognized as the strongest food and <keyword id="20467955" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dairy-brand" source="keywords">dairy brand</keyword> globally, according to the <keyword id="20220223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brand-Finance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Brand Finance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Brand Finance">Brand Finance</keyword> Food &amp; Drink 2024 report. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Amul posted, "We are pleased to inform you that Amul is ranked as the strongest <keyword id="22460165" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-brand" source="keywords">food brand</keyword> and strongest dairy brand in the world as per Food &amp; Drink 2024, the annual report on the most valuable and strongest food, dairy &amp; non-alcoholic drinks brands by @BrandFinance , world's leading brand consultancy" The annual report by Brand Finance, a global brand valuation consultancy, highlights the growing influence of Amul in the international market. The company's <keyword id="22862818" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="brand-strength" source="keywords">brand strength</keyword> was evaluated with a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score of 91.0 out of 100, earning it the prestigious AAA+ rating. Amul's performance in familiarity, consideration, and recommendation metrics solidified its position as a global leader in the food and dairy sectors. While Amul shines in brand strength, the report identifies Nestle and Lay's as leaders in brand value. Nestle retained its title as the world's most valuable food brand, despite a 7 per cent decline in brand value to USD 20.8 billion. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and maintain a diverse product portfolio has been key to its enduring success. Lay's, on the other hand, saw a 9 per cent increase in brand value, rising to USD 12 billion and securing the second spot globally. Lay's innovative product offerings, including its Flavour Swap and MAX lineups, have driven its brand value growth. The Brand Finance report also notes a 4 per cent decline in the overall brand value of the food and beverage sector, now totalling around USD 268 billion. This decline is attributed to consumers increasingly favoring smaller, private-label brands offering unique, personalized products over traditional big names. Convenience foods, however, are bucking the trend, with rising brand value due to growing demand from busy consumers. Brands like Healthy Choice and DiGiorno have seen a 17 per cent increase in brand value, driven by innovative product releases and strategic marketing. Amul's ascension as the world's strongest food and dairy brand is a testament to its consistent innovation, effective marketing strategies, and strong consumer trust. The cooperative's commitment to quality and its extensive product range has made it a household name not just in India but across the globe. With an 85 per cent share in the Indian butter market and a 66 per cent market share in cheese, Amul's brand equity continues to grow stronger each year. The dairy industry, however, faces its own set of challenges. The report notes a 6 per cent dip in the total brand value of the top 10 dairy brands, now at USD 43.8 billion. Despite this, Amul has retained its title as the strongest dairy brand for the fourth consecutive year, thanks to its unique cooperative structure and impactful branding efforts. Meanwhile, Valio, a Finnish dairy brand, has emerged as the fastest-growing dairy brand, with a 31 per cent increase in brand value, driven by its acquisition of Planti, a producer of plant-based dairy alternatives. Sustainability continues to be a critical factor for brands. Nestle leads the food sector with the highest Sustainability Perceptions Value at USD 1.4 billion, while Coca-Cola tops the non-alcoholic drinks sector with a value of USD 5.2 billion. The report suggests that brands like Lay's and Pepsi, with high positive gap values, could further enhance their market positions by better communicating their sustainability efforts. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-gained-over-3-million-subscribers-in-june-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/112670406.cms">Reliance Jio and Airtel gained over 3 million subscribers in June, Vi lost nearly a million</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/the-iphone-pro-models-will-be-made-in-india-for-the-first-time-this-year/articleshow/112653019.cms">The iPhone Pro models will be made in India for the first time this year</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/orient-technologies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112646237.cms">Orient Technologies IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

Amul emerges as world's strongest food and dairy brand, topping global rankings in Brand Finance Food & Drink 2024 Report

Boost in domestic <keyword id="19914449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing" source="keywords">manufacturing</keyword> due to PLI (production linked incentive) schemes and increase in <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> on account of free trade agreements are expected to bridge the country's <keyword id="20201391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-deficit" source="keywords">trade deficit</keyword> further, <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> said on Monday. However, it said that fluctuations in <keyword id="19936629" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commodity-prices" source="keywords">commodity prices</keyword>, especially for critical imports like oil, metals, and agricultural products, can impact India's trade balance and inflation levels. The Survey said that though ongoing geopolitical headwinds impacted India's merchandise exports, lowering international commodity prices ensured a lower trade deficit in FY24 than in FY23. The country's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 240 billion in 2023-24 from USD 265 billion in 2022-23. It added that changes in trade policies by major trading partners or geopolitical developments can affect India's export opportunities and market access. "In the coming years, India's trade deficit is expected to decline further as the <keyword id="19981334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PLI-scheme" source="keywords">PLI scheme</keyword> is expanded and India creates a globally competitive manufacturing base in several product categories," the Survey said. It added that the recently signed FTAs (free trade agreements) are expected to increase the <keyword id="22374533" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-market-share" source="keywords">global market share</keyword> of the country's exports. The PLI scheme for sectors like mobile manufacturing, information technology (IT) hardware, pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and food product are helping to increase manufacturing and cut imports. India has implemented <keyword id="20000557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FTA" source="keywords">FTA</keyword> with Mauritius, Australia and the UAE. It added that a narrowing merchandise trade deficit and rising service exports have improved the CAD (<keyword id="20054874" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-account-deficit" source="keywords">current account deficit</keyword>), ending with a surplus of 0.6 per cent of GDP in Q4 of FY24. However, the risks to the performance of India's external sector are on the downside due to the persistence of current <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword> and policy uncertainty, it said. Some of the challenges listed by the survey includes fall in demand from major trading partners like the US, rise in trade cost, and volatility in commodity prices. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal have resulted in trade flows being re-routed, increasing journey time and costs. India's merchandise trade relies heavily on maritime trade, so disturbances in major shipping routes can impact its economy. "It is critical to explore what these changing paradigms mean for India. Policies need to be a mix that straddles security concerns with economic considerations," the survey said, adding India's push towards manufacturing in complex and niche sectors through schemes such as PLI and Make in India aims to balance these goals. Further, the survey emphasised on the need to focus on improving India's competitiveness in many product areas. For example, it said, India has tremendous potential in becoming a large global exporter in agricultural commodities. Fostering stronger regional trade ties and adding more markets for Indian goods will help mitigate global demand fluctuations. "In an era when global economic growth is likely to be buffeted by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, growing India's exports of goods and services will be a stiffer challenge than before," it cautioned. Commenting on this, Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India, said that despite global uncertainties, India's exports are recording positive growth rates. "That shows the resilience of our exports amidst global uncertainties," she said, adding, "by transforming our export basket and focusing on higher margins and value addition across various sectors, India will easily achieve its ambition of USD 2 trillion in exports by 2030-31."

India's trade deficit expected to decline further: Economic Survey

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It's been another tough quarter for the fast-food sector.</li><li>Both KFC and Burger King saw sales fall in the US in Q3.</li></ul>It's been another tough few months for fast-food giants.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-sales-dropped-second-quarter-in-a-row-sharees-down-2024-10">McDonald's kicked off earnings last week by reporting a drop in global sales</a> for the most recent quarter. On Tuesday, Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International and the parent company of KFC followed in its footsteps.Same-store sales worldwide for Yum! Brands, which owns KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, dropped by 2% year over year.Its biggest brand — KFC — saw same-store sales in the US drop by 5%.Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands International, which owns chains including Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes, reported a weaker-than-expected 0.3% increase in same-store sales across the group for Q3.Comparable sales dropped by 0.4% for Burger King and 3.8% at Popeyes in the US. Globally, comparable sales fell 0.7% and 4%, respectively.Tim Hortons and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taco-bell-cheap-fast-food-gives-diners-what-they-want-2024-8">Taco Bell were bright spots</a> for both parent companies in the US, however, reporting an uptick in sales. The latter has won over diners with cheaper fast food and value menus.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-starbucks-kfc-us-sales-diners-cut-back-prices-expensive-2024-8">Fast-food chains have struggled recently</a> as price hikes have increasingly put off some consumers.Chains raised their menu prices to account for rising food and labor costs in the years after the pandemic.McDonald's, KFC, and Burger King are among those trying to lure back diners with new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-chipotle-starbucks-fast-food-chains-value-meal-war-customers-2024-11#:~:text=Fast%20food%20chains%20say%20they,temporary%20discounts%20to%20earn%20sales.">value menu deals</a>. But it looks like it hasn't been enough.Some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-fast-food-is-so-much-more-expensive-value-affordable-2024-4">consumers say they're increasingly turning to independent restaurants, casual dining chains</a>, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-expensive-americans-cook-at-home-visit-independent-restaurants-2024-5">home cooking</a> to get a better deal.

It's not getting any easier for fast-food chains

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Diners are "price weary" and eating out less often, restaurant executives told investors last week.</li><li>One analyst said Starbucks posted its "weakest" performance outside the pandemic or Great Recession.</li></ul>Many consumers are thinking carefully about how they spend every dollar, with some cutting back on visits to quick-service restaurants, executives told investors on a series of earnings calls last week. To win penny-pinching customers back, some say they're planning smaller price increases for the rest of the year.Many fast-food chains described a gloomy outlook. Wendy's CFO Gunther Plosch told investors on Thursday that consumers are "still under pressure" — especially those with household incomes under $75,000. "They are reducing frequency, so visitation is down."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-fast-food-is-so-much-more-expensive-value-affordable-2024-4">Chains raised prices drastically</a> during the pandemic to offset rising labor and food costs, and it's coming back to bite them. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-is-expensive-people-annoyed-eating-out-restaurant-2024">Some diners are cutting back, saying that fast food is just too expensive</a> and no longer represents good value.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-value-diners-cut-back-fast-food-restaurant-price-increases-2024-5">McDonald's</a> CFO Ian Borden told investors that consumers were "price weary" and "certainly" dining out less often. Joshua Kobza, the CEO of RBI, which owns brands including Burger King and Popeyes, told analysts that diners had become "a bit more sensitive to price."Chains including McDonald's, Burger King, Shake Shack, and Wendy's posted sluggish US comparable sales, with a poor growth rate compared to what they posted in the first quarter last year, driven by a decrease in the number of orders.For some restaurant chains, comparable sales even fell. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-starbucks-earnings-how-cautious-us-consumers-spending-sales-decline-2024-5">Starbucks</a> posted a <a target="_blank" href="https://investor.starbucks.com/press-releases/financial-releases/press-release-details/2024/Starbucks-Reports-Q2-Fiscal-2024-Results/default.aspx">3% drop</a> in North America comparable sales, which it attributed to a 7% fall in the number of transactions. William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said in a note to clients that it was the "weakest traffic performance at Starbucks outside the pandemic or the Great Recession."Global comparable sales also fell in the first three months of the year for both KFC (down 2%) and Pizza Hut (a 7% decline), compared with the same period in 2023.Some chains, though, including Popeyes, Domino's, and Wingstop, posted a growth in same-restaurant sales.<h2>Pricing caution</h2>Before the pandemic, limited-service restaurants in the US put their prices up by less than 3% a year on average, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. That all changed during the pandemic, and while it's now cooling, price inflation is still well above pre-2020 levels.Some chains last week vowed to keep price increases low this year, though many noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-restaurant-operator-adapts-to-20-wage-kiosks-less-staff-2024-4">California's new $20-an-hour minimum wage for fast-food workers</a> had pushed up prices there."We're going to stay careful on pricing," Plosch, the Wendy's CFO, said. "We are expecting low-single digit pricing that the system is going to execute this year. I don't think we're going to get too greedy."McDonald's would "certainly" be "prudent and thoughtful" about any further price increases in the rest of 2024, Borden said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shake-shack-doesnt-plan-to-increase-prices-fast-food-value-2024-5">Shake Shack</a> went one step further. CFO Katie Fogertey told investors on Thursday that the chain, which has raised prices by in the mid-single digits this year, had no further increases planned for 2024.Is fast food now too expensive? Contact this reporter at gdean@businessinsider.com

Fast food chains are getting the message about soaring prices

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Pandemic-fueled inflation seems to be spurring voters to kick out leaders.</li><li>Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere.</li></ul>From London to Tokyo, Seoul to Cape Town, 2024 has been a year of sharp election swings. Now you can add Washington D.C. to the list.Donald Trump soundly beat Democrat VP Kamala Harris in the US election, faring better than in 2020 in virtually every part of the country and with nearly all demographic groups. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/voters-world-elections-against-ruling-parties-analysis-2024-7">rejection of incumbent political parties</a> across the world this year.The US vice president's late substitution for Biden as the Democratic candidate, and her decision to embrace his policies instead of distancing herself from them, meant she <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">effectively ran as an incumbent</a>.In contrast, Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election race enabled him to run as a "change candidate" this cycle and promise to disrupt the status quo.<h2 id="4f519aa6-7d08-4663-8d7f-8e62f03fcb58">Voter backlash</h2>Analysts have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-analysis-harris-immigration-abortion-economy-musk-2024-11">proposed many theories</a> as to why Harris lost, ranging from her gender and race, to her failure to reach out to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-musk-cuban-trump-meme-stocks-gamestop-dogecoin-crypto-markets-2024-11">young men</a>, to her support of Israel's war with Gaza, to her campaign focusing too much on reproductive rights and preserving democracy and too little on immigration and the economy.But from a global perspective, it's little surprise she lost given how many incumbent governments on both the right and the left have received a drubbing this year. Here are just a few of them:<ul><li>Britain's Labour Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">ousted</a> the Conservative Party, or Tories, this summer.</li><li>France's National Rally party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/france-elections-far-right-macron-le-pen-bardella-2024-6">secured</a> more seats in the country's assembly than in 2022.</li><li>Japan's Liberal Democratic Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-prime-minister-shigeru-ishiba-shake-up-us-military-pact-2024-9">ceded</a> its parliamentary majority this fall.</li><li>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">lost</a> his majority against expectations, forcing him to form a coalition government.</li><li>South Korea's Democrat Party snagged a majority in the country's legislature.</li><li>South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority.</li></ul>Moreover, the incumbent US party has now lost three consecutive presidential elections for the first time in more than a century, Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note this week.<h2 id="0e2b6ba9-92e6-4498-aadc-0fbc022d984f">Paying the price</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">Inflation</a> has been a key driver of the voter backlash. Prices of food, fuel, housing, and other essentials took off during the pandemic as governments spent heavily and lockdowns snarled global supply chains. In the US, inflation hit a 40-year high of more than 9% in early 2022 and was still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target this September."Trump's victory is the most powerful example this year of a political and economic environment that has been brutal for incumbents around the world and brought home the fact that inflation is political kryptonite," Tina Fordham, an independent strategist and advisor, said in a LinkedIn post this week.A key consequence of inflation has been central banks raising <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/what-is-interest">interest rates</a> to curb spending, hiring, and investing, cooling price growth. The Fed raised its benchmark rate from nearly zero to north of 5% in under 18 months, raising many people's monthly payments on their credit cards, car loans, and mortgages.The central bank made its first cut this September and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">trimmed</a> a second time this week, broadly in line with peers such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.Surging prices and steeper interest rates has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-jpmorgan-consumer-inflation-rates-banking-crisis-2023-4">squeezed households</a> in the US and many other countries. Voters appear to be fed up with onerous living costs and eager to kick out the leaders they blame for their struggles.Other issues, such as illegal immigration and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also spurred votes for change.<h2 id="508f4884-4bdf-4651-b7a6-4bb22f9f0fde">Demanding change</h2>In the US, those concerns are so powerful that they've trumped the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-pandemic-stock-market-crash-inflation-recession-rates-ai-2024-2">economic reality</a> of resilient growth, historically low unemployment, declining inflation, falling rates, and a record stock market. In a CNN exit poll, 72% of Americans said they were dissatisfied with the country's direction.Louis Perron, a political consultant author of "Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections," said in a note this week that elections featuring an incumbent are "foremost a referendum on the incumbent."In Harris' case, he said "it would have probably taken a miracle to overcome the circumstances with respect to inflation and the border."People "can't pay for groceries with Democracy or reproductive rights," he added. "If the mood of the electorate is so sour, people just want to stop the bleeding."Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth.He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."

Voters worldwide are angry about higher prices and keep punishing those in power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fast-food chains and retailers are using loyalty programs to drive sales amid inflation challenges.</li><li>These programs are key for customer retention and giving chains a competitive advantage.</li></ul>Retailers and fast-food chains are leaning into loyalty programs to drive sales. This week, McDonald's reported its Q3 results. Global <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-sales-dropped-second-quarter-in-a-row-sharees-down-2024-10">sales dropped 1.5% in its latest quarter</a>, following a 1% slide in the previous quarter.However, one bright spot in its earnings was that the fast-food chain reported sales to its loyal members reached over $28 billion for the 12 months ending September — and $8 billion during the quarter across 50 loyalty markets. This is up from $6 billion in Q1 and $7 in Q2. The figure includes sales in both company-owned and franchisee restaurants.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-new-rewards-program-offers-free-burgers-and-mcchickens-2021-6">MyMcDonald's Rewards</a> was first introduced in the US in the summer of 2021. By the end of that year, McDonald's said over 21 million shoppers in the US had enrolled in the system. The program has since expanded to other markets.For every dollar spent on an order, you receive points. When accumulated, these can then be used to redeem free menu items.CEO Chris Kempczinski told analysts that the company's aim to reach 250 million active members by the end of 2027 was achievable. As of December 2023, McDonald's had 150 million 90-day active users in its loyalty program."We know as we drive loyalty adoption, we increase the frequency of visit and the spend from these customers over time," Kempczinski said.<h2 id="88661e47-ef97-4b4a-ae95-3bf701414a31">It's not just McDonald's</h2>McDonald's is not the only chain reaping the rewards from loyal consumers.Starbucks said in its most recent report earlier this week that its own rewards program had reached 33.8 million 90-day active members, a 4% year-on-year increase. Former boss Laxman Narasimhan said in February that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-offer-fewer-deals-under-new-ceo-2024-10">60% of the company's sales</a> were from the nearly 34 million Starbucks Rewards members.Another popular example is Costco, which has become a master at building a superfan base.The warehouse club chain said its executive-tier members, who get 2% rewards on purchases, are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-are-doubling-down-on-loyalty-programs-2024-8">responsible for about 73% of worldwide sales</a>.For West Paschal, cofounder of Alpine IQ, a Colorado-based customer loyalty platform that works with retail businesses, people are hesitant to spend on non-essential goods, so it is particularly important for businesses to use rewards programs to draw them in."It's especially necessary right now," he told Business Insider, "persuading consumers with loyalty deals can be a way to get them back in the store."<div type="image" title="A Starbucks barista works at an espresso machine" height="3456" width="5184" msid="114852909" hostid="261" sizebytes="514486"></div>As prices have soared due to inflation and shoppers have tightened their belts, fast-food chains have been competing against each other to tempt them back with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-price-rises-tipping-point-value-deals-combos-mcdonalds-2024-8">the best value meals</a>. McDonald's, KFC, and Burger King all rolled out $5 combo deals, for example."Loyalty programs are among the most effective ways businesses can cultivate customer engagement and repeat business," Kevin Shahnazari, cofounder of FinlyWealth, a personalized credit card recommendation service, said.Restaurants and stores that offer points-earning apps can drive consumers to opt to buy there over shopping at competitors and they would likely continue making their purchases somewhere where they can win rewards, he said.<h2 id="64ce7ac0-7b75-4926-88de-aa38ad203f8c">The power lies in the perks</h2>However, a good loyalty program should be about more than just the points.Financial incentives are still important, but there's a growing appreciation for rewards programs that align with the customer's values and include personalized experiences, Zsuzsa Kecsmar, chief strategy officer of Antavo Enterprise Loyalty Cloud, an AI-powered customer loyalty platform, said.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chappell-roan-against-hm-doesnt-bode-well-for-brand-2024-9">H&amp;M</a> is one of the retailers that offers exclusive event invites to its members, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Nike</a> provides a customization service for its app users.For Zarina Stanford, CMO at software development firm Bazaarvoice, today's customer wants to feel recognized, and programs that achieve this can create a powerful cycle of prolonged engagement."In a marketplace where choices are endless, a strong loyalty program doesn't just retain customers, it also builds a relationship that feels personal and valuable," she said.It also provides companies with valuable data to understand customers better and tailor marketing.For the future of rewards systems, Kecsmar said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sc/how-your-business-can-leverage-data-to-increase-customer-loyalty">technology will likely play a crucial role</a> in further adapting to the personalized needs of customers."This might include leveraging AI and advanced analytics to create more intuitive and responsive loyalty ecosystems that adapt to individual customer preferences and behaviors," she added.

Why fast-food chains and big brands love loyalty programs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wheat prices have surged over the past month, climbing to their highest level since August.</li><li>Global geopolitical conflict and extreme weather have impacted supply.</li></ul>Wheat prices have soared to their highest level in eight months thanks to a series of disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflict and extreme weather events.Chicago SRW wheat futures continued to surge throughout April, rising 15% in just the last month to trade at the highest level since August, according to Bloomberg data. Stockpiles of wheat have been drawn lower largely due to weather events and geopolitical disruptions. That includes excess rain in Europe and dry soil in Ukraine, Russia, Australia, and the US, all major wheat exporters. Bloomberg notes that strong harvests of the grain among countries on the Black Sea have helped keep prices lower, but futures markets are pricing in expectations for supply pressures to soon send prices up again. In addition to weather events, Russia's war with Ukraine has also driven prices higher. Russia has <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/wheat-prices-russia-ukraine-attack-grain-black-sea-odesa-putin-2023-7">attacked key grain hubs in Ukraine</a>, which caused wheat prices to skyrocket in 2023. Ukraine's workforce has also been depleted by its need for soldiers to fight back against Russia's invasion. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which has clocked in hotter-than-expected in the US for the last three months. Consumer prices grew <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-4">3.5% year-over-year in March</a>, with food prices surging 2.2%.

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