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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.8% this year.</li><li>It expects slower growth of 2.2% next year as the government cuts back and the job market cools.</li></ul>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US, projecting the world's largest economy would expand by 2.8% this year instead of the 2.6% it predicted in July.in its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024">World Economic Outlook </a>released on Tuesday, IMF staff cited stronger consumption fueled by "robust increases in real wages" and wealth effects, along with non-residential investment, as the two main reasons for the increase. However, they predicted GDP growth would slow to 2.2% in 2025 as the US government curbs its spending and the labor market cools, sapping consumption.The IMF projected global growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from its previous prediction. They underscored their latest forecast for global growth over the next five years of 3.1% was "mediocre" compared with the pre-pandemic average."Persistent structural headwinds — such as population aging and weak productivity — are holding back potential growth in many economies," the agency's staff wrote.They projected only a slight slowdown in China to 4.8% this year due to resilient net exports, and revised their April forecast for 2025 upward by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%. They noted the Chinese government's stimulus measures "may provide upside risk to near-term growth."The UN financial agency said that growth in the euro area appears to have troughed in 2023, and it anticipates an acceleration to 0.8% expansion in 2024 driven by stronger exports, then 1.2% in 2025 on the back of improved domestic demand.IMF staff made downward revisions to its growth outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, citing disruptions to the production and shipping of oil and other commodities as well as "conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events."In contrast, they upgraded their April forecasts for emerging and developing Asia by 0.3 percentage points for both 2024 and 2025, to 5.4% and 5.0%. They cited "surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth."

The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's GDP growth slowed to 4% in Q2, while inflation continued to rise.</li><li>Economists have long been warning that the Russian economy is showing signs of "overheating."</li></ul>Russia's economic growth slowed to 4% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.4% in Q1, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240809-russian-economic-growth-dips-in-second-quarter-as-inflation-rises">AFP reported</a>, citing official data released on Friday.While the Russian economy continues to expand, it marked the lowest quarterly GDP growth result since the beginning of 2023, the report said.It comes as the Kremlin battles rising inflation and warnings that the economy is overheating.Russia's economic growth has come off the back of huge Kremlin spending on its military campaign in Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.While that spending helped quell earlier predictions of an imminent recession linked to Western sanctions, it has led to rampant inflation.Inflation hit 9.13% year-on-year in July, the AFP report said, citing data from the Rosstat statistics agency.The country has also been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-overheating-consumer-spending-tourism-central-bank-interest-rate-2024-7">going through a consumption boom</a>, driven by the state's heavy defense spending and labor shortages."Consumer activity remains high amid a significant increase in households' incomes and positive consumer sentiment,'" Russia's central bank said in July."Labour shortages continue to grow. In these conditions, the growth in domestic demand does not result in a proportional expansion of the supply of goods and services but rather increases the costs of businesses and, consequently, intensifies inflationary pressures," it added.Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 18% last month after inflation "accelerated" and was "developing significantly above the Bank of Russia's April forecast," it said.Russia's economy is also facing a severe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">demographic crisis</a>, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-calls-russians-more-babies-ethnic-survival-economy-2024-2">nation's population</a> potentially shrinking by 50% by the end of the century, according to a report by the Atlantic Council written by Harley Balzer, an emeritus professor at Georgetown University.The report highlights Russia's long-standing population decline, which it says has now been exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine.This decline could increase pressure on Russia's labor shortages and lead to lower growth and productivity."Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer wrote in the report.

Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

New Delhi [India], March 27 (ANI): After S&amp;P Global, <keyword id="19977638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="keywords">Morgan Stanley</keyword> has revised its <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> forecast upwards for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) to 6.8 per cent, up from its previous estimate of 6.5 per cent. The firm also revised its growth forecast for the ongoing financial year, FY24, to 7.9 per cent. The revised projections come in the wake of an optimistic outlook on India's economic trajectory, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the country's strength and stability as hallmarks of the current cycle. The firm anticipates a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, driven by continued traction in industrial and capital expenditure activities. According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for India's GDP growth remains robust, with the expectation that growth will track around 7 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (QE Mar-24). This growth momentum is expected to be broad-based, with the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure narrowing in FY25. The firm also anticipates a favourable inflation trajectory, with recent trends indicating a softening in headline inflation. Food inflation, which carries significant weight in the CPI basket, has moderated, providing relief from supply-side shocks. Furthermore, core inflation has seen meaningful moderation, driven by easing in supply chains and subdued price pressures. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects headline inflation to average 4.5 per cent in FY25, down from 5.4 per cent in FY24, while core inflation is projected to remain muted at 4.1 per cent. The firm anticipates a continuation of supply-chain normalisation along with easing commodity price pressures, contributing to the disinflation trend. Despite the positive economic outlook, Morgan Stanley highlights potential risks stemming from global factors and domestic uncertainties. Slower-than-expected global growth, higher commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions pose risks to India's growth and macroeconomic stability. Domestically, factors such as central elections and changes in policy mix warrant close monitoring. (ANI)

Morgan Stanley raises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for FY25

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Economist Steve Hanke still thinks the US is on track for a recession early next year.</li><li>That's due to a recent contraction in the money supply, which preceded past downturns, he told NYSE TV Live.</li></ul>The US economy is still likely to slow into a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-inflation-job-market-signal-slowdown-2024-8">recession</a> next year — and Trump's election victory may have just made the economic outlook even more challenging, according to top economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-inflation-fed-rates-steve-hanke-2024-7">Steve Hanke</a>.The Johns Hopkins professor, who's warned of a coming downturn for months, said he was sticking to his 2025 recession call in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTxY-QAj9_Q">interview with NYSE TV Live</a> on Friday. That's mainly due to a concerning trend in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/money-supply-recession-unemployment-inflation-us-economy-outlook-jeremy-siegel-2023-12">money supply</a>, he said, referring to the total volume of money flowing around markets and the economy.M2, one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to Federal Reserve data. That's a rare trend that's only happened four times over the last century, and has ended in a recession in every instance, Hanke said.The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-per-year at the end of September. But that rate remains well-below the 6% growth Hanke thinks is needed to maintain inflation at the Fed's target rate — a sign, in his view, that the economy is growing too slowly."My view is that the economy is going to continue to slow down and probably will experience a recession next year," Hanke said."The fuel for the economy, to make it simple, is the money supply. And what's going on in the money supply? And if you get significant changes in it, you get significant changes in nominal GDP," he later added.Trump's protectionist economic policies also impose a "big negative" for the economy, Hanke said.Economists say some aspects of Trump's agenda, like his plan to levy steep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-how-shoppers-and-small-businesses-are-stocking-up-2024-11">tariffs</a> on US imports, are expected to boost <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-chips-could-create-more-american-jobs-increase-prices-2024-11">economic growth</a>, something that would challenge Hanke's recession outlook. Also, the policies are seen by some as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11,">inflationary</a>, which complicates the deflation piece of Hanke's argument.But, if tariffs raise costs for consumers, that could actually backfire on the US economy, Hanke said, as higher prices could lead consumers to demand fewer goods."It's very clear. If you put tariffs on imports, it's like putting a sales tax on those imports. And if you put a sales tax on something, what happens? People don't demand as much of it," he added.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his economic plan would be inflationary, and has maintained that his policies will actually lower prices for Americans. He implemented tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation increase, but economists note that his tariff plans this time around are far more wide-reaching, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.Most forecasters, though, still anticipate a soft-landing for the US economy, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation</a> trending closer to the Fed's target rate, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10">economic growth</a> has remained solid. Consumer prices rose 2.6% on a yearly basis in October, slightly hotter than last month's levels, but on par with expectations. Real <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/gdp">GDP</a>, meanwhile, is estimated to grow at a 2.5% clip over the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow reading.

You Searched For "gdp forecast" and got 7 results

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

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Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

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The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

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S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

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Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

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Morgan Stanley raises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for FY25

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Why one veteran economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump's victory

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