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A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese stocks could climb as much as 15% on the nation's expected fiscal stimulus package, SocGen said.</li><li>The package could be announced in October, potentially reaching 3 trillion yuan, the bank estimated.</li></ul>Chinese stocks could soon surge 15%, with another expected round of stimulus spurring a fresh economic growth spurt for the world's second-largest economy, according to Société Générale.Strategists at the bank pointed to China's recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">monetary stimulus package</a>, which included measures like interest rate cuts, lowering reserve requirements for banks, and a $114 billion liquidity injection into China's economy.Those measures boosted investors' optimism, with Chinese stocks notching their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-boost-economy-stock-market-bazooka-stimulus-sentiment-rally-pboc-2024-9">best week</a> since the Great Financial Crisis after the measures were announced. And there's likely more upside on the way, given that Beijing is likely to supplement the monetary support measures with increased fiscal spending next year, SocGen said. For stocks, that means a 15% jump from current levels in the near term, the bank said. Strategists estimated that the stimulus package could be announced as soon as October, potentially at the next Standing Committee of the National People's Conference at the end of the month. The package could amount to as much as 3 trillion yuan, or $427 billion, and include an "open-ended commitment" for a bigger stimulus package the following year.Those measures could push GDP growth to 5% next year, the strategists said, up from the bank's original estimates of 4.5% growth."The undervaluation of China equities is something that we observe across different benchmark indices and sectors. Most markets are trading well below or within their 10-year history," the bank said, adding that they also expected the policy to boost corporate earnings growth to as much as 15%."The exact magnitude of the boost will be subject to the size and details of the fiscal package … the sustainability of housing stabilization and household wealth recovery."Other experts have noted that China's monetary stimulus measures are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-monetary-stimulus-package-xi-jinping-beijing-interest-rates-2024-10#:~:text=The%20direct%20effects%20of%20China's,lags%20in%20the%20legislative%20process.">unlikely to be effective</a> without <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stimulus-stock-market-consumer-deflation-outlook-real-estate-2024-9">fiscal stimulus</a> to go <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-stimulus-fiscal-consumer-support-deflation-stephen-roach-2024-10">along with it.</a> That could mean the latest stimulus package won't have any direct effect on Beijing's economy until 2025, the soonest funds will be made available and deployed, one researcher said this week.

Chinese stocks could rally 15% as more stimulus spurs a GDP growth spurt next year, SocGen says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mostly flat on Thursday after a deep rout on Wednesday.</li><li>The Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 are coming off their worst single-day drops since 2022.</li></ul>US stocks were little changed on Thursday, looking to erase some of the deep losses incurred in Wednesday's session. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter.The Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 are looking to recover from their worst single days since 2022, which saw them slip 3.6% and 2.3%, respectively.Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Following a period of stellar growth and stock gains, markets are assessing whether the latest sell-off is full-on correction or merely a soft reset."There are a cocktail of reasons affecting different parts of the market ranging from cost and profitability of AI investments, weakening consumer outlook, trade tariffs and sanctions on sales to China and the anticipation of a new rate cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve," Mike Owens, senior sales trader at Saxo, said Thursday."Some of the equity sell off feels completely logical, investors can crystallize tech stock profits and still lock in over 4% yield on government bonds rather than risk losing 5-6% a day on some of the favoured equity names."Tech bulls see the sell-off as a short-lived blip, arguing that the market is still in the earliest stages of an AI capex boom that will continue to drive fresh gains."Patience will be required on the AI spending payback as we have discussed on Microsoft, Google, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Apple and many other tech names," Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives wrote Thursday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,424.92, down less than 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,973.61, up 0.3% (120 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,278.95, down 0.4%</li></ul>Meanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%. That's much higher than estimates of 2.1% and higher than the first quarter's revised reading of 1.4%."The US economy is much stronger than people realize and to the extent that markets were worried about a growth slowdown, they should breathe a sigh of relief after this morning's GDP number," Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Independent Advisor Alliance, said."The 2.8% growth in the economy above and beyond inflation is very impressive, and the recent pullback in stocks will likely prove to be a buying opportunity."The data could reset rate-cut bets as the Fed deals with a hotter economy and less wiggle room to slash interest rates multiple times in the last few months of the year.Markets still see an 85% chance the Fed cuts rates at the September meeting, and strong odds of cuts at the November and December meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Next up on Friday, traders will be assessing the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Personal consumption expenditures are expected to show inflation rose 2.5% last month.Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-signals-flash-outlook-healthy-bull-rally-more-upside-2024-7">There are four bullish signals</a> pointing to more gains ahead for the stock market, Bank of America said.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-the-big-rotation-trade-is-from-cash-to-stocks-2024-7">big rotation from cash to stocks</a> — and it could help push the S&amp;P 500 up 17% by the end of the year, according to UBS.</li><li>The stock market is approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-q2-gdp-pce-earnings-drive-stocks-higher-2024-7">two catalysts that could help spark the next leg of the bull run</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-housing-job-market-unemployment-economy-2024-7">The Fed is going to cut rates only once in 2024</a> as shelter inflation is too high and the job market remains too hot, Vanguard said.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Oil futures were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.7% to $77.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was down 0.9% to $81 a barrel.<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 2% to $2,363.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.219%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin </a>fell 4% to $64,303.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks waffle after sell-off as traders mull tech weakness and GDP data     

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks.</li><li>The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report.</li></ul>The recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Earnings season has gained momentum with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-alphabet-quarterly-earnings-profits-ai-investment-payoff-2024-4">strong first-quarter reports</a> from tech stalwarts <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, among others, following a weekslong pullback, but JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said the latest "downside surprise" on first-quarter GDP and the "upside surprise" on inflation challenge the "soft landing views held by many in the market. "While the worry for risk markets is overheating that jeopardizes rate cutting, in contrast to the overheating story, the recent GDP print heads in a stagflationary direction relative to market expectations," the JPMorgan team said in a note on Monday. Analysts explained that hopes for a soft landing were built on strong economic growth and prospects that inflation would calm down once a few key problem sectors settled back down, particularly rent inflation and auto insurance. However, the recent economic data has dashed those hopes, and Kolanovic said the message of lower growth and higher inflation — a situation that points the way to stagflation — hasn't been received by market. The fresh real gross domestic product index rose <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">at an annualized rate of 1.6%</a>, less than the estimated 2.5%. Meanwhile, the Fed's go-to inflation measure exceeded the forecasted 2.7% in March, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-march-pce-inflation-fed-microsoft-alphabet-1qearnings-2024-4">clocking in 2.8%</a>.The bank said that there's solid proof that the worldwide trend of disinflation has come to a halt.Even on the earnings front, JPMorgan analysts said they are "not overly impressed" so far this season. Among the roughly 42% of S&amp;P 500 companies having reported, 75% are beating EPS estimates, but only 59% are topping revenue estimates, slipping below the 63% average. Other Wall Street voices have sounded off on the risk of stagflation recently. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-us-economy-gdp-growth-outlook-recession-forecast-inflation-rates-2024-4"> 1970s-style scenario</a>, complete with a stock market crash.

The stock rally is masking stagflation risk raised by the latest GDP report, JPMorgan says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday as traders eyed the release of first-quarter GDP data. </li><li>Investors are sifting through earnings, with mega-cap tech results rolling in. </li></ul>US stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders prepared for the release of first-quarter GDP data and digested the latest round of corporate earnings. Investors are waiting on advanced estimates for first-quarter GDP to roll out tomorrow morning, which will give markets a sense of how strong the economy is growing and point to the Federal Reserve's next move. The US is expected to have expanded 2.7% in the first three months of the year, according to <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed economists</a>, but an especially strong print would raise the risk that the Fed keeps policy tight in order to prevent inflation from gaining a foothold again. Markets are pricing in just one or two rate cuts for the year, according to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CME FedWatch tool,</a> down from as many as seven cuts seen at the start of 2024.Investors are also preparing to take in more earnings results, which have been resilient so far this quarter. The S&amp;P 500 looks on track to post <a href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-will-likely-report-year-over-year-earnings-growth-of-at-least-7-for-q1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7% year-per-year earnings growth</a>, according to FactSet. Of the companies that have reported financials so far, <a href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-19-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">74% have beat earnings estimates</a>.Facebook parent Meta Platforms will report after the closing bell, while Microsoft and Alphabet will report results after the close on Thursday. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-quarterly-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-4#tesla-s-shares-are-still-up-as-the-call-ends">Tesla shares jumped 11% higher</a> on Wednesday after the carmaker's latest earnings report. Revenue came in below expectations, but investors were pleased with the company's confirmation that a low-cost electric vehicle was set to roll out sometime next year. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,071.67, up 0.02%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,460.92, down 0.11% (-42.77 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 15,712.75, up 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on: <ul><li>A rare bifurcation in the US economy is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-extremely-rare-economy-bifurcation-downturn-inflation-fed-rate-cut-2024-4">raising the odds of recession</a>, one economist warns.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-artificial-intelligence-outlook-crash-ai-investing-tech-stocks-2024-4">AI's impact doesn't make it immune to a crash</a>, according to billionaire investor Howard Marks.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-outlook-bofa-upgrade-buy-q1-earnings-robotaxi-2024-4?_gl=1*1p5kyh1*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxMzk4MjIwNi4xMDUzLjEuMTcxMzk4MzAyNS4xNC4wLjA.">Tesla stock could see 35% upside</a> if it follows a four-part plan, Bank of America said.</li><li>Tesla is headed for a new growth phase as <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-elon-musk-q1-earnings-outlook-model-2-2024-4?_gl=1*1kmzeuh*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxMzk4NzA0NS4xMDU1LjEuMTcxMzk4NzA4OS4xNi4wLjA.">Elon Musk is finally the "adult in the room,"</a>Wedbush's Dan Ives said.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped by 0.5% to $82.91 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, slipped 0.3% to 88.13 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> edged lower to $2,332 an ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 4.644%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> was down 3.29% to $64,393. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks mixed as traders brace for GDP data and more earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were down Wednesday morning before the week's high-profile earnings kicked off. </li><li> Snap, Advanced Micro Devices, and Alphabet report third-quarter results after the bell.</li></ul>US stocks dipped on Tuesday as traders waited for a slew of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-earnings-microsoft-amazon-apple-alphabet-meta-2024-10">corporate earnings</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">reports and economic data</a> releases. Major indexes edged lower and bond yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield was up four basis points to 4.326%. Earnings season on Wall Street continues to gain steam, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/snap-stock">Snap</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amd-stock">Advanced Micro Devices</a>, and Google parent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> among the major tech firms set to report earnings after the bell. The earnings deluge continues on Wednesday with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> after the closing bell. Apple and Amazon will report on Thursday. Third-quarter earnings have been strong so far. Of the 37% of S&amp;P 500 companies that have released financials, 75% have beat earnings estimates, on par with the 10-year average, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-25-2024">FactSet</a> analysis.This week's economic data, meanwhile, has the potential to reset the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors will digest GDP data for the third quarter on Wednesday, with estimates of 3.2% growth in the July through September period.On Friday, the October jobs report will be published. Economists expect 110,000 jobs were added last month, well below September's reading of 254,000. The Federal Reserve's November policy meeting will kick off a day after the presidential election. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders see a 96% chance central bankers will cut rates another 25 basis points, though recent hot data has also suggested the Fed may pause rate cuts at an upcoming meeting. "As we enter 2025, the case for skipping or pausing is likely to build. The Fed will be closer to estimates of neutral, a repeat of residual seasonality could lift inflation early next year, and the election outcome could add to hawkish risks for the Fed," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Wednesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,802.94, down 0.35%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,184.05, down 0.48% (-203.52 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,523.71, down 0.23%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's how a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?_gl=1*1qvmmw6*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIwNTI2My40OTMuMS4xNzMwMjA4NDgwLjQuMC4w">Trump or Harris presidency</a> could impact your investments.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">election-betting market</a> has exploded this presidential cycle.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-djt-truth-social-election-madison-square-garden-rally-2024-10">Trump Media and Technology stock embarked on a meme-like rally</a> after Trump's Madison Square Garden event. The stock was halted for volatility on Tuesday morning. </li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-job-market-economy-fomc-jeremy-siegel-2024-10">Fed could pause rates at its next meeting</a>, if the October jobs report comes in strong, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil ticked higher 0.67% to $67.83 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, edged up 0.61% to $71.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was higher by 0.47% to $2,754.48 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.333%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 3.25% to $71,152.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes dip ahead of mega-cap tech earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, judging by GDP growth, profits, productivity, and the labor market.</li><li>JPMorgan Asset Management is upbeat heading into 2025, but a major risk looms.</li></ul>It looks like the most obvious threats to the economy have been neutralized for now, but a veteran strategy chief fears that an under-the-radar risk poses a threat to the global expansion.This economic backdrop bears little resemblance to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3">so-called stagflationary environment</a> of 2022, a year where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/">US GDP shrank in the first two quarters</a> as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">inflation hit multi-decade highs</a>.Fast forward to late 2024, and GDP has grown by at least 3% for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">three of the last four quarters</a> and is expected to do so again in the third quarter, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm estimates that consumer spending, which <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">accounts for about two thirds of US GDP</a>, also likely accelerated to 3.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis last quarter, up from 2.8% in Q2.Meanwhile, price growth is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">remarkably close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target</a>, which allowed the US central bank to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">start the interest rate easing cycle with a bang</a> in mid-September.Perhaps most encouraging is that the labor market appears to be healthy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">Job additions easily exceeded estimates</a> in September, and the unemployment rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">in check at 4.1%</a>.Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. The same is true of wage growth, which JPMAM found has topped inflation for the last 17 months, underpinning solid consumer spending in the process.These signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence.The economic outlook "seems remarkably benign with solid economic growth, low unemployment, resilient profits, a slow drift down in inflation, and gradual easing from the Federal Reserve," Kelly said in written commentary on October 28. The market veteran added that there aren't "signs of an imminent change in the economy's path."<h2 id="59ff7859-06ea-46e1-a918-af568c5cb476">A 'tariff'ying risk</h2>That seemingly picturesque backdrop helps explain why the S&amp;P 500 has risen 22% this year and is near record highs. But Kelly believes investors can't let their guards down."Investing has always been as much about risk as about return, and the key to long-term success is being prepared for both," Kelly said in his commentary.Kelly said to be wary of elevated stock valuations — which he and his colleagues at JPMAM <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">said last week</a> could put a lid on future returns — and the market's heavy tilt toward mega-cap growth companies, even though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">that has been changing</a> in recent months.However, neither of those overhangs is more serious than the potential fallout from a domestic or international political shock. When asked last week about the biggest risk to his long-term outlook, Kelly quickly arrived at an answer: a fierce global trade war marked by escalating tariffs."No matter which set of economists you have sitting here, every one of 'em will tell you that tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at JPMAM's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">annual long-term capital market assumptions conference</a> on October 21. "You can use it as a threat, though it's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Economists usually disapprove of tariffs, which are taxes on foreign imports, in most cases. Tariffs promise to generate revenue for the home country while aiding domestic industries, but they can drive up consumer prices and prompt counter-tariffs that lead to trade wars.In a worst-case scenario, tariffs would result in higher prices and lower growth due to the waste and inefficiency that they create while hurting importers and exporters in both countries."A trade war could cause us to push up our inflation forecast and push out our growth forecast at the same time," Kelly said at the conference.While Democrats and Republican presidents have leaned on tariffs in the past, it's former President Donald Trump who's <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/business/4945577-trump-tariffs-economy-trade/">promising to implement substantial tariffs</a> in this election cycle.While some say the threat of aggressive tariffs would help the US secure better trade terms, others are skeptical — if not outright scared.Such tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy,"</a> Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-international-investing-strategy-charles-schwab-2024-6">cited tariffs as a top risk</a> back in June. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war">spoke out against Trump's tariff proposals</a>, as did the right-leaning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94">Wall Street Journal editorial board</a>.Although investors may want to take the possibility of tariffs more seriously, Kelly noted that even if they're a major headache, stocks and the economy should still be fine in the long term."I could have said 'pandemic' five years ago, if I'd been incredibly prescient," Kelly said at the conference. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway. And so it wouldn't actually have been a very good thing to worry about."

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wharton's Jeremy Siegel said the Fed could pause its interest rate-cutting cycle next week.</li><li>He said a strong jobs report for October would prompt officials to doubt the need for more cuts. </li></ul>The Fed could surprise markets by leaving interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week, top economist Jeremy Siegel said.The Wharton finance professor said that though investors are pricing in another 25 basis-point rate cut in November with near certainty, a hot jobs report on Friday could upend those expectations. Economists expect data to show 110,000 jobs were added in October. A big upside surprise to that estimate would follow September's stunningly strong reading of 254,000, and would likely further recalibrate the market's expectations of how much the Fed will ease interest rates. "If we get a strong labor market report for the month of October, there's going to be a lot of people, a lot of the FOMC members, that are going to say maybe we should pause at this particular juncture," Siegel said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFvOX8Av0zQ">an interview with CNBC</a> on Friday. Fed officials issued a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">jumbo-sized, 50 basis-point rate cut</a> at their September meeting. Fed governor Michelle Bowman was a lone <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/feds-rate-cut-dissent-governor-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-split-2024-9">dissenting voice at that time</a>. Since then, and since the big September jobs figure, other Fed officials have called for more "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-waller-rate-cuts-easing-hot-economy-monetary-policy-2024-10">caution,</a>" pointing to the resilient job market and strong economic growth.Siegel predicted central bankers would cut rates another three to four times in their policy-easing cycle. However, he said, interest rates will probably be elevated in the long run. He added that the stock market looked "strong" and that the economy remained resilient.Third-quarter GDP data will be published on Wednesday, and is estimated to show the economy grew by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">3.3%</a> from July through September.Most investors are still expecting steady rate cuts over the coming months despite the strong economic backdrop. According to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch</a> Tool, markets see two 25-basis point cuts through the rest of this year and see about a 40% chance that the Fed funds rate will be 100 basis points lower by May of next year.

The Fed could pause rate cuts at its meeting next week if the October jobs report is hot, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks jumped on Monday as investors anticipate key earnings and economic data this week.</li><li>Major tech firms like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple will report third-quarter earnings.</li></ul>US stocks moved higher on Monday to kick off <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">a pivotal week of earnings and economic data.</a>More than 90 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> companies are set to report results this week, and investors will be keenly focused on third-quarter updates from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta Platforms</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/AAPL-stock">Apple</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a>.Combined, these five mega-cap tech giants are worth about $12 trillion."The busiest week is ahead of us, with a shift from cyclicals to AI / mega-cap Tech. AI monetization is in focus and has been spotty at best. But Tech CEOs have told us that the biggest risk is underinvesting thus AI capex could drive sales for Tech but also for the broader market," Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said in a Monday note.So far, 37% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Of those companies, 78% beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 58% beat revenues estimates by a median of 2%, according to data from Fundstrat.It's a big week for economic data as well, with third-quarter GDP to be released Wednesday morning. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Tracker suggests growth of 3.3% in the quarter, while economists expect growth of 3.2%.Investors will also get a look into inflation with the release of the PCE index on Thursday, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.According to economist estimates, the year-over-year PCE Index is expected to be 2.1%, a slight decrease from last month's reading of 2.2%.Finally, investors will turn their attention to the October jobs report on Friday. Economists expect 110,000 jobs added to the economy last month, a big decline from the September employment report, which came in hot with 245,000 new jobs.From there, investors will be hyper-focused on the Presidential election next week, which will be followed by the Fed' next policy meeting on November 6-7. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,823.56, up 0.27% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,387.57, up 0.65% (+273.17 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,567.19, up 0.26% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-djt-truth-social-election-madison-square-garden-rally-2024-10">Trump Media stock soared on Monday following former President Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-strike-iran-production-brent-wti-crude-2024-10">Oil prices plunged more than 6% after Israel's attack against Iran over the weekend avoided oil facilities.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-prediction-sp500-outlook-future-returns-goldman-sachs-forecast-2024-10">4 charts back up Goldman Sachs' prediction of a decade of low returns in the stock market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Here's what is at stake for your investments in next week's Presidential election.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-record-high-became-etf-interest-rates-trump-costco-2024-10">Gold has become one of the world's hottest investments as it outperforms the S&amp;P 500. Here's why.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-policy-election-housing-home-prices-construction-costs-2024-10">Donald Trump's proposed immigration crackdown could make housing more expensive by depleting the construction workforce.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil plunged 5.54% to $67.80 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 5.50% to $71.87 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was flat at $2,754.50 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.274%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> increased 2.49% to $69,638.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes gain as investors brace for key tech earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Traders are holding their breath ahead of key economic data and earnings.</li><li>Third-quarter GDP and the October jobs report will be important inputs for the Fed's easing cycle.</li></ul>Traders are bracing themselves ahead of a big week for the stock market.Investors will be watching key data releases, including third-quarter GDP, an inflation update from the personal consumption expenditures index, and the October jobs report for clues about the state of the economy heading into year-end.Importantly, the data points will be key inputs for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. If the economy stays hot, the Fed could slow or even pause its easing cycle and spark a recalibration in markets that causes fresh volatility for stocks.Meanwhile, five mega-cap tech firms worth a combined $12 trillion — Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet — will report third-quarter earnings this week.Here are the key inputs for markets to keep an eye on this week.<h3 id="2f700cd1-90d6-4434-aa02-c46b50633936">Mega-cap tech earnings</h3>Earnings season is peaking this week, with more than 90 S&amp;P 500 companies set to report including mega-cap giants <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta Platforms</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/AAPL-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Alphabet</a>.Together, those five companies are worth around $12 trillion. Investors will watch the earnings reports closely, looking for signs of AI growth — and with it, signals that the tech bull run will continue into 2025.Alphabet reports on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday.For Meta, analysts expect strong growth amid a growing and stable core business. In a note last week, analysts at Bernstein said Meta is the new "set-it-and-forget-it" blue chip stock. The team raised their price target from $600 to $675 a share, representing potential upside of 16% from the price of the stock at midday on Monday. Apple has an especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">big week ahead</a>. The iPhone maker reports on Thursday, and is also expected to unveil software and hardware updates this week, including access to highly-anticipated Apple Intelligence AI features with the iOS 18.1 update.The earnings report follows a note <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-tumbles-analyst-says-iphone-16-orders-slashed-2024-10?_gl=1*14az43n*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDEyNTUzMi4zMjQuMS4xNzMwMTI3NTkyLjMxLjAuMA..">last Wednesday</a> from supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities that warned of weak demand for it's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16-review?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">new iPhone 16 models</a>. The note said there's no sign yet that Apple's coming AI capabilities have boosted demand for its devices.Amazon will also report on Thursday. Deutsche Bank analysts expect strong results driven by operating income at the high end of guidance and higher operating income for next year.The analysts see several sources of upside, including faster growth of total ad revenue given strength in its Prime Video segment, operating expenses for Amazon Web Services that come in below expectations, and other operating expenses growing more slowly due to the company's focus on efficiency and scaling robotics benefits. In addition to the results themselves, investors will also be watching for clues about the strength of the AI trade. All of the tech giants reporting this week, with the exception of Apple, are among Nvidia's biggest customers. With Nvidia's earnings not for another month, the third-quarter results and executive commentary will be important gauges of demand from the so-called "hyperscalers" driving the bulk of GPU sales. Wedbush Securities analysts and tech bull Dan Ives described this week as the "world series for big tech." He predicts earnings results will come in strong, and send tech stocks higher into the end of the year."Investors need to see the monetization of AI spreading to the rest of the tech landscape and the next few weeks will be the linchpin to confirmation that the AI 'use case phase' have now begun within the enterprise world," Ives wrote in a note on Sunday. <h3 id="65129def-22db-4216-9a06-7e2b39b43d51">Third-quarter GDP and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge</h3>The flurry of key data releases starts with third-quarter GDP on Wednesday.Last week, stocks took a hit as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">the bond market sold off</a> based on expectations for interest rates to remain higher for longer due to a strong economy, cautious comments from Fed officials, and rising odds of another Donald Trump presidency, which is widely seen as an inflationary event given his promises of high tariffs.Depending on the data this week, there's renewed potential for the bond market to reprice and send shocks through the stock market as investors adjust rate expectations. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed</a>'s GDPNow Tracker expects 3.3% economic growth for the quarter, according to the tracker's most recent estimate on Friday. That's a high bar and would mark significant growth from last quarter's 3.0% growth.A hot economy is a hurdle to aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, and could cause markets to reprice expectations for interest rates through the rest of this year and into 2025. PCE is due Thursday and will be another input for the Fed as it nears its goal of 2% inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose 2.1% year-over-year in September, continuing its decline after coming in at 2.2% the prior month. <h3 id="a5a7e0dd-1db9-4744-802c-65cccec3afdd">The October jobs report</h3>After a blockbuster September jobs report, the stakes are high for October's jobs data on Friday. The data has become a double-edged sword for the market. If job growth remains high, that could reduce the need for more rate cuts. If the data is weaker than expected, that could prompt more rapid easing but also hint at a weakening economy.Economists expect the data to show 110,000 jobs were added last month, far fewer than the 245,000 added in September. JPMorgan analysts forecast a slightly more mild increase of 100,000 as recent storms and strikes weigh on job growth. That makes the report difficult to interpret, the analysts said. "A decline in the unemployment rate would likely increase chatter around a Fed 'skip' in November, but barring an unexpectedly and remarkably strong set of data next week, we think it would take more months of good data before that possibility gets onto the Fed's radar," the analysts said in a note. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets expect the Fed to deliver 25 basis-point cuts at the November and December meetings.

You Searched For "gdp estimates" and got 11 results

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