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<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI companies have been adjusting their election offerings and guidelines ahead of Election Day.</li><li>Perplexity launched an Election Information Hub with information on candidates, voting logistics, and results.</li></ul><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">Election week</a> has finally arrived. This time around, it will serve as an important test for the AI companies willing to provide their users with election-related information and updates on voting results.ChatGPT didn't exist during the last presidential election in 2020. Its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-openai-company-chatgpt-elon-musk-founded-2022-12">launch two years ago</a> kicked off a wave of generative AI chatbots and tools integrated into popular consumer products like Google Search.Ahead of the election, the companies behind the products had to decide what restrictions, if any, they would implement on AI-generated content related to the election, analyzing the associated risks.Some, like the AI startup Perplexity, are loudly leaning into it.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/perplexity-ai-startup-lawsuit-allegations-targets-funding-2024-10">AI search engine</a> launched a dedicated "Election Information Hub" that uses AI to provide information about the upcoming election and results tracking. The hub includes details about voting requirements, how to find your polling place and poll times, and AI-summarized analysis on ballot measures and candidates, the company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.perplexity.ai/hub/blog/introducing-the-election-information-hub">wrote</a> in an announcement.<div type="image" title="Perplexity providing information about how to vote in New York" height="1358" width="2876" msid="114958491" hostid="261" sizebytes="107828"></div>"Perplexity uses a process called Retrieval-Augmented Generation to identify relevant information and summarize it in a way that's tailored to a user's query," Perplexity spokesperson Sara Platnick told Business Insider.For election-related questions, the company is using a "curated set" of non-partisan and fact-checked sources, the company said. The separate hub doesn't use stored knowledge from the model's training data in its responses, which helps minimize hallucinations, Platnick told BI.Perplexity will also start offering live updates on elections on Tuesday by using data from The Associated Press. Other responses will use information from Democracy Works and other non-partisan factual sources like Ballotpedia and news organizations, Platnick said.<div type="image" title="Response to query about who will most likely win the election" height="1184" width="1579" msid="114958489" hostid="261" sizebytes="78204"></div>Alon Yamin, the cofounder and CEO of AI-based text analysis platform <a target="_blank" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/copyleaks.com/__;!!JZyed81S!itOc7IDeF_76NxsTUPRsm7xTzocjiL3rm1gW5KKoRo7WetzRSjCOUxm_bOIxkDmjSF4sJyCQNmuN0oTLaA$">Copyleaks</a>, said Perplexity's approach "can certainly help filter and contextualize content," helping users access reliable sources.Yamin said there are potential benefits that come with using AI for election information. AI can provide real-time updates and help identify trends, voter sentiment, and key issues.However, Yamin said that the chance of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snowflake-ceo-sridhar-ramaswamy-ai-hallucination-rates-2024-11">AI hallucinations</a> and accuracy issues presents risks.Other companies are taking different approaches. OpenAI will continue to integrate election-related responses into ChatGPT while providing some extra features in light of the election.<div type="image" title="ChatGPT response to query about who will win 2024 presidential election" height="1289" width="1719" msid="114958486" hostid="261" sizebytes="114838"></div>Starting on November 5th, those who ask ChatGPT about election result queries will see a message encouraging users to check sources like the Associated Press and Reuters, or state and local election boards for "the most complete and up-to-date information," the company said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://openai.com/index/how-openai-is-approaching-2024-worldwide-elections/">post</a> updated on October 31.OpenAI said it was "actively testing the safeguards" put in place over the last year and monitoring for any issues. It also said it will continue to adjust its protective measures, which include transparency around AI-generated content and preventing chatbots from pretending to be real people.ChatGPT will also direct users to the US voting information site <a target="_blank" href="http://CanIVote.org">CanIVote.org</a> when asked procedural election-related questions.Anthropic's Claude similarly implemented a pop-up feature that allows users who ask for voting information to be redirected to TurboVote, a nonpartisan resource from Democracy Works, it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/us-elections-readiness">wrote</a> in a post.Anthropic has other guardrails in place, including prohibiting users from using it to promote a specific candidate or issue. It said it would also prevent the chatbot from being used to generate misinformation about election laws, candidates, or related topics. In its post, the company said outputs will be limited to text-only to help eliminate "the risk of election-related deepfakes."While the live election updates may be helpful to users, AI-generated election content poses a number of risks.Yamin said AI can spread biased information, misinterpret data, and create false narratives. He also added that these models are "only as good as the data they are trained on," which opens the risk of AI-generated responses reflecting the bias of the data they are trained on.Misunderstandings could be amplified if AI misinterprets information and serves up inaccurate results, especially in a fast-moving and closely followed election environment, Yamin told BI.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-gemini-ai-layoffs-innovation-boring-2024-2">Google</a>, which experienced some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-scales-back-ai-in-search-feature-overviews-eat-glue-2024-5">highly publicized AI fails</a> with its Gemini AI and AI Overviews, chose to implement constraints on what users can ask its AI products about the election. Google has said is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-restricts-gemini-ai-chatbot-answering-election-questions-trump-biden-2024-3">restricting its AI chatbot Gemini</a> from answering questions about <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/elections">elections</a> "out of an abundance of caution."<div type="image" title="Screenshot of Trump query in Gemini" height="1239" width="1651" msid="114958488" hostid="261" sizebytes="42396"></div>A similar search on Google's main search product on Monday didn't trigger an AI Overview summary, showing the "Top Stories" carousel of stories from publishers. Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.Brad Carson, cofounder and president of the nonprofit Americans for Responsible Innovation, told BI that while Google's approach is commendable, it's not a global solution to the problem.Carson said that combatting disinformation is "not an easy task," and while it's smart for companies to try and do more to limit misinformation, the government should work on legislation that requires AI companies to clearly label the information they serve to users."I feel that other products will probably fill the gap that Google is vacating, but I think it is responsible of Google to try to step back a bit from this," Carson said.

The election is a big test for AI companies

The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> has received eight applications from aggrieved <keyword id="19902220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="candidates" source="keywords">candidates</keyword>, including those from the <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BJP" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BJP">BJP</keyword> and the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, for verification of tampering or modification in micro-controller chips embedded in the EVMs post declaration of Lok Sabha election results on June 4. Terming the suspicion of manipulation of the electronic voting machines "unfounded", the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords">Supreme Court</keyword> had on April 26 rejected the demand for reverting to the old paper ballot system. But at the same time, the top court had opened a window for the aggrieved unsuccessful candidates securing second and third places in the poll results and allowed them to seek verification of micro-controller chips embedded in five per cent EVMs per assembly constituency on a written request upon the payment of a fee to the poll panel. BJP's Ahmednagar (Maharashtra) candidate Sujay Vikhe-Patil has sought verification of the machines from 40 <keyword id="20300567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="polling-stations" source="keywords">polling stations</keyword>. Vikhe-Patil had lost to Nilesh Lanke of NCP (Sharad Pawar) faction. A YSRCP and a DMDK candidate too have applied for the verification, according to data shared by the poll panel. According to the EC, eight parliamentary seats spread across six states are involved. The total number of polling stations for which verification has been sought is 92. Candidates who come second or third and seek verification of the EVMs will have to pay Rs 47,200 per EVM set, according to the standard operating procedure issued by the EC on June 1. According to the EC's Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), the cost submitted by manufacturers BEL and ECIL to carry out EVM "check and verification" is Rs 40,000 (plus 18 per cent GST) per set of EVM. "In addition to the cost incurred by the manufacturers, there are also administrative costs like cost of labour to shift the units, CCTV coverage, electricity charges, videography costs and various other operational costs at the district election officer level," the document said. It, however, said to make the <keyword id="21143428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="verification-process" source="keywords">verification process</keyword> "more accessible" and inclusive in compliance to the referred mandate of the Supreme Court, it is decided that instead of going purely by the actual economic costs incurred, the administrative expenditure on <keyword id="22122362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="EVM-verification" source="keywords">EVM verification</keyword> will be treated as "election expenditure and borne by the central or state government, as the case may be". "Accordingly, the administrative charges will be waived for the applicants -- the same shall not be charged to the applicants," it noted. The charges for EVM verification to be paid by the applicant candidate is for the current financial year 2024-25 -- till March 31, 2025, it said. An EVM set has at least one Ballot Unit, one Control Unit and a <keyword id="19975285" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vvpat" source="keywords">VVPAT</keyword> machine. Separately, YSRCP and BJD candidates from Andhra Pradesh and Odisha respectively have also applied for EVM check following the announcement of assembly results on June 4. Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh were held along with the Lok Sabha elections. In the verification exercise for assembly poll results, total assembly constituencies involved are three where verification has been sought in 26 polling stations. According to the SOP, the concerned state chief electoral officer (CEO) was required to communicate to the manufacturers the consolidated list of applicants within 30 days of the date of declaration of results -- by July 4. The CEOs have already conveyed the same to the manufacturers 15 days ahead of the schedule, the EC said. The technical SOP enumerating the methodology and steps for checking and verification of burnt memory/ micro-controller of the EVM units will be issued by the EC in due course.

EC receives applications for EVM verification on 8 LS seats in 6 states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Election results are coming in soon. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Janet Boudreau, who owned the election supply business Intab, designed an "I Voted" sticker in 1987.</li><li>Her sticker became one of the most popular. Intab now sells over 100 million stickers every year.</li></ul>When Janet Boudreau walks into her local polling place to cast a ballot and collect a classic "I Voted" sticker with an American flag, most people don't know she's part of the reason they receive the stickers in the first place.One of the earliest mentions of "I Voted" stickers dates back to a 1982 Miami Herald article about discounts offered to customers wearing the stickers, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://time.com/4541760/i-voted-sticker-history-origins/">Time magazine</a> reported. Even so, stickers were rarely given out on Election Day until 1987, when Boudreau took over Intab, her father's election supply business then based in Seattle. As she worked to expand Intab's offerings, she also had the idea to create stickers to be handed out at voting booths across the country."'I Voted' stickers were not prevalent at all. They were hardly ever seen," Boudreau said. "In fact, I only saw a black-and-white version that had a check mark or an X. It was not in color, and there was no image of a flag or anything else on it, so it was definitely not inspiring."Boudreau hand-drew a design featuring the words "I Voted" with a waving American flag, a patriotic symbol of fulfilling one's civic duty. It went on to become one of Intab's bestselling products. By 2012, the company sold over 100 million stickers across all 50 states and US territories.<div type="image" title="I Voted stickers with an American flag on them." height="762" width="1024" msid="114987735" hostid="261" sizebytes="51956"></div>Boudreau sold Intab in 2015 and now coaches other entrepreneurs on how to grow their businesses. While her American flag stickers still appear in many election offices across America, some counties and states have begun holding sticker design contests for school-aged children to involve them in the democratic process.The results are occasionally unusual. In 2022, 14-year-old Hudson Rowan designed Ulster County, New York's "I Voted" sticker featuring a wide-eyed face with bloodshot eyes atop a spider's body. In the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-election-biggest-moments-photos-2024-10">2024 election</a>, the winner of Michigan's "I Voted" sticker contest depicts a werewolf ripping off its shirt in front of an American flag. Submitted by 12-year-old Jane Hynous, the design appeared to amuse Vice President Kamala Harris as she greeted voters at a barber shop in Pontiac, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1853242826428961252">video on X</a> showed.<div type="image" title="An &quot;I Voted&quot; sticker depicting a werewolf ripping off its shirt." height="683" width="1024" msid="114987739" hostid="261" sizebytes="65042"></div>Boudreau loves the creativity."Oh, the more the merrier," she said. "If kids can begin thinking about the power of voting, then that's all the better. I think it's fabulous."

How 'I Voted' stickers became an Election Day staple

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The United States is preparing for civil unrest surrounding the election.</li><li>Election Day itself isn't as high of a risk as the postelection period, analysts say.</li></ul>The turmoil that took place after the last US presidential election has left its mark.So this time around, as Election Day looms, businesses and governments around the country are preparing in advance — especially if the results are close.The consensus going into Election Day is that will be the case.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">Seven swing states</a> offer multiple avenues for each candidate to win. And the final polls have largely shown the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as a virtual tie nationally.Glen Kucera, an executive at Allied Universal, a private security company, told Business Insider that his clientele are concerned enough to seek more resources to protect themselves and their businesses."The threat is kind of imminent and everywhere," Kucera said. "We're trying to get ahead of the threat."In the final stretch before Election Day, it seems like everyone — from voter advocacy groups and election officials to risk management and security companies — is preparing for civil unrest."I think what is also now on people's minds is the emotion, the anger that goes with some of these elections," Kucera said. "We're being deployed to try to figure all those imminent threats out and try to protect the public as we go into this election."But just how high is the risk?<h2 id="6f2d6248-0787-4c0f-9dc3-5d53c2aad9c9">Election Day isn't the biggest worry</h2>Election Day itself isn't likely to be the most high-risk day for unrest because there will be extensive protective measures taken, said Rachel Brown, an expert on violence, hate speech, and civic engagement at Over Zero, which works to deter identity-based violence."I wouldn't expect us to see a high level of organized violence. People should feel safe voting, and if there is any danger, it's likely to be very highly localized, such as a single person taking action where there seem to be groups trying to mobilize," Brown said on Friday at a press panel hosted by the National Task Force on Election Crises (NTFEC), a cross-partisan election organization.That appears to be the case in Washington and Oregon, where authorities are searching for what they say is a lone actor responsible for placing incendiary devices on at least two ballot drop boxes, burning hundreds of ballots. Officials in Clark County, Washington, where some 488 ballots were damaged, said in a press release that they have been in contact with the majority of the voters affected to issue them replacement ballots.<div type="image" title="A ballot box was damaged in Multnomah County in Portland, Oregon." height="1500" width="2250" msid="114923430" hostid="261" sizebytes="146584"></div>There are protections in place for the voting process, voters, and election workers, Brown said. Voter intimidation is criminal and prosecutable, and locally, voting sites are preparing for any incidents, including swatting attacks, where a fake call is made to law enforcement to trigger an armed response, Brown said."Some of the threats that many of us aren't even thinking about day to day, election officials are working day in and day out to prevent and then respond to," Chris Crawford, an NTFEC staffer and policy strategist at Protect Democracy, said at the panel. "There are remedies when activities like this arise that election officials can still try to ensure that every person can have their votes submitted and counted."The greater risk is likely postelection, when the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-preparing-legal-challenges-election-decided-court-2024-8">results may be decided in courts</a> instead of on election night. Then, there's the waiting game until Congress counts the electoral votes on January 6, followed by the Presidential Inauguration Ceremony on January 20.Brown said she is "most concerned" about a spike in conspiracy theories and threats to state capitals, vote count locations, and the individuals who oversee them.Anticipating such unrest after the election, businesses in Portland and other cities have begun boarding up their windows."Violence tends to happen to target the process and to contest results," Brown said. "We know the dates that are relevant in the process and are able to anticipate where that might happen, but in a close election, we could see the use of violence or intimidation to attempt to sway how the results are processed."<h2 id="39042411-d542-4c03-b120-8bb15025a411">How great is the risk?</h2>Verisk, a data analytics and risk management company, ranked the United States among the five most high-risk countries for civil unrest, which could also lead to extensive insured losses, in the next year. Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and South Africa rounded out the list, with France, Greece, and Spain the riskiest in Europe.Verisk wrote in an October analysis that election-related violence is rare in the United States and that the January 6 riot in 2021 was "a standout protest event in US history." The company said the peaceful 2022 midterm elections showed that the threat of civil violence remained comparatively low.Emotions run higher during presidential elections, however, and the company's Strikes Riots and Civil Commotion Predictive Model found that the tension and political polarization could reach a boiling point, sparking unrest in urban centers like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston."Not only is the underlying SRCC risk higher than in January 2021, the potential for flashpoints to ignite civil unrest is also greater," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a press release.Robert Munks, Verisk's head of research for the Americas, said that risks may also rise following the election during the certification processes."Crucially, the risk of election-related unrest will rise substantially if the outcome of the election is tightly contested," Munks said, "particularly should Trump lose to Harris."

The US is bracing for civil unrest around the election. But just how high is the risk?

New Delhi: India has proven the 'fallacy' of incompatibility of rapid <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and a democratic political system, and the continuity of government and policies give industry the confidence of <keyword id="22932843" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sustained-high-growth" source="keywords">sustained high growth</keyword>, <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Maruti-Suzuki" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maruti Suzuki" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maruti Suzuki">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> India Chairman R C Bhargava said on Tuesday. In his address to shareholders in the company's Annual General Meeting held virtually, he asserted that India's <keyword id="20442128" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="democratic-processes" source="keywords">democratic processes</keyword> will lead it to a sustained and more equitable society. Bhargava also said the industry and the government can work with trust and confidence with each other to achieve the goal of India becoming a developed country by 2047. "Over the years, I've heard people arguing that rapid economic development and a democratic political system are not really compatible. Our country has proved the fallacy of this line of thinking," he said. Asserting his point, Bhargava said, "We are now the fastest growing economy in the world, and our prime minister is one of the most respected global leaders." Periodically, he said, "the world has seen how deeply committed we are to the democratic processes." Referring to the recent general elections, he said it has "once again shown that hundreds of millions of people can vote in a peaceful manner and accept the results of that process." Bhargava, however, admitted that "the policies and strategies for equitable and rapid economic growth and development did take some time in being established". ".. But we did find the right path through peaceful democratic processes. This is in sharp contrast to what we have seen around us in many parts of the world and in our neighborhood," he said, without naming Bangladesh which is currently in turmoil following student-led violent protests that led to a regime change. "The continuity of the government and its policies to bring in faster economic growth with greater inclusivity and equity gives industry confidence of sustained high growth," Bhargava said. He further said industry and government can work with trust and confidence with each other to achieve the goal of India becoming a developed country by 2047. "It is the democratic processes which will lead us to a sustained and more equitable society," he said.

Continuity of government, policies give industry confidence of sustained high growth: Maruti Suzuki Chief

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record $579.5 million in daily outflows on Monday.</li><li>The outflows come as traders prep for volatility amid election uncertainty following the vote. </li></ul>Investors pulled a record amount from bitcoin exchange-traded funds to start the week as they prepared for volatility in the world's largest crypto amid potential election uncertainty. Bloomberg data shows that the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs in the market lost $579.5 million on Monday. That's a record daily outflow for the funds since they first came to market in January. Bitcoin has been volatile in the week leading up to the vote, edging toward all-time highs last week before pulling back again below $70,000. On Tuesday, the token was up by about 1.5%, trading at $69,553. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">remain virtually tied</a> in the final polls. Prediction markets, meanwhile, show Trump with a sizable lead, though betting odds have also swung toward Harris in recent days. The uncertainty will likely stoke <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-market-outlook-trump-harris-presidency-election-economy-analysts-strategy-2024-11?utm_source=Iterable&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=campaign_Insider%20Today%20%E2%80%94%20November%205,%202024">market volatility</a>, experts say."We expect Monday and Tuesday to be quiet for markets, however, once we get the first drip feed of results on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect fireworks," Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said in a note.Other analysts also said they expect uncertainty to rattle markets, especially if votes have to be recounted in key states. "The election looks significantly more of a contest than many had been expecting, which could provide a more protracted and volatile period ahead as we see potential recounts and challenges to potentially drag out this process," Scope Markets' Joshua Mahony said in a note.Outcomes in swing states could be early indicators of a Trump or Harris victory, though. Troy Ludtka, Senior US Economist at SMBC, says a Trump win in key swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania could deliver an election outcome by midnight, or at least provide an early indication of who will win.The crypto industry's volatility comes as both candidates have targeted crypto voters.Trump has been vocal about his support for the industry this year, billing himself as the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">"crypto president."</a> Harris has also courted crypto voters, marking a shift from President Joe Biden's administration, which has pursued a stringent regulatory agenda led by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin ETFs see highest daily outflows ever as traders brace for Election Day volatility

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some US embassies in Europe are skipping traditional election-night viewing parties.</li><li>The presidential election is very close, with prediction models seeing it as a coin toss.</li></ul>US embassies in major European capitals are largely opting out of the traditional <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-night-prep-drinks-specials-cannabis-bipartisan-parties-2024-11">election-night watch parties</a>, partly to avoid an awkward repeat of scenes from 2016, when diplomats had to mask their surprise in front of dozens of guests as the results came in.Traditionally, these events were when journalists, foreign diplomats, and other high-ranking officials would come together to see how the US voted.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-us-election-eu-embassies-hillary-clinton/">Politico was the first to report</a> that embassies in London, Paris, Brussels, and Berlin are forgoing the usual election festivities as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Vice President Kamala Harris faces off against former President Donald Trump</a> in what is expected to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-civil-unrest-risk-kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-11">a very close contest.</a>Prediction models have characterized it as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">a coin-toss election.</a>Two elections ago, Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the United Nations at the time, hosted a viewing party with a group of powerful women, including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, feminist icon Gloria Steinem, and female ambassadors to the UN.The party was documented in a 2017 HBO documentary, "The Final Year," and showed guests becoming increasingly tense and emotional as it became clear that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/hillary-clinton">Hillary Clinton</a> would not become the first female US president.Similarly, Politico spoke to then-Ambassador Anthony Gardner, who hosted a 2016 viewing party at the US Embassy in Brussels. The outlet reported that as it became clear that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-election-results-2016-11">Trump was set to win</a>, the mood turned, with one woman weeping quietly.A senior diplomat in Europe, who was not named, told Politico that the 2016 embassy events had been "calamitous."They added, "I don't think there was appetite to watch another Trump victory."Though Brussels, Berlin, London, and Paris won't be hosting events, Rome will.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">race for the White House is tight</a>, with polling showing that both candidates are virtually tied in the swing states needed to win.There's another, more practical reason some embassies may be forgoing a traditional viewing party.Simply put, the outcome may not be clear on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">election night</a> — it could drag on for days or possibly weeks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">Knife-edge races</a> in battleground states could mean that it takes longer to call the winner, and really narrow victories could result in recounts.The US Embassy in London said as much.A spokesperson told Politico that while it "appreciates the long-standing energy and excitement around US presidential elections which have been carried out over nearly 250 years of democracy," it added that "election day does not end on election night."The spokesperson continued, "Time may be required to count votes and let the electoral process work."

US embassies are holding off on election watch-night parties, fearing they could get awkward

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! With the holidays just around the corner, it might not hurt to earn a little extra cash. Four people with side-hustle experience <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/side-hustle-recommendations-passive-income-content-creation-amazon-etsy-2024-10">shared tips on their top gig recommendations</a>.In today's big story, betting on the presidential election is all the rage. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">Can it keep the momentum going</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Blackstone's boss thinks Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be a better president the second time around</a>.</li><li>Tech: Google's earnings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">were a big hit with investors</a>.</li><li>Business: What a Trump or Harris win <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">means for the cost of housing</a>.</li></ul>But first, wanna bet?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Presidential bets</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with dice" height="812" width="1083" msid="114782269" hostid="261" sizebytes="50032"></div>We're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets.Platforms allowing users to bet on the US presidential race have become the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">surprise star of election season</a>, writes Business Insider's Matthew Fox. And it could eventually change how we view any potential outcome, not just future elections.Kalshi, which has attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets, is currently one of the most popular apps in the Apple App Store. The trading app Robinhood also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/presidential-election-betting-robinhood-legal-odds-2024-10">got in on the action</a> on Monday.Kalshi's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">legal victory in October over the CFTC</a> to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. But predictions markets are also spiking abroad where they've existed for years.Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen $2 billion in wagers this month, up from $533 million in September, according to The Block. Last year, the website averaged less than $20 million in monthly trading volume.The rise of election-betting markets hasn't been without controversy.A "whale" trader betting on former President Donald Trump to win the election grabbed headlines and drew conspiracy theories. Polymarket <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-donald-trump-betting-odds-whale-french-trader-harris-polls-2024-10">confirmed the user was a French national</a> with trading experience betting on Trump "based on personal views of the election."<div type="image" title="A young man in the center of a $100 bill" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782272" hostid="261" sizebytes="563774"></div>The betting market's biggest tests might come after the election.Supporters of prediction markets say they're <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-harris-prediction-markets-polls-presidential-election-polymarket-024-8">more accurate than traditional polls</a>, citing their ability to quickly adapt to the latest news and the fact participants are invested in the outcome.This election will serve as a good test of that theory, as there's a wide gap between the two approaches. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race.Should Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis. Nate Silver, one of the most well-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.But a presidential race only happens once every four years. What about the rest of the time?If the past few years have taught us anything, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gambling-young-men-sports-betting-crypto-meme-stock-market-addiction-2024-4">this country loves to gamble</a>. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, in particular, are happy to bet on just about anything.Prediction markets' business model can lean into that theme. On Kalshi, you can currently wager on whether the Tesla robotaxi will be released before 2026 or if the US will ban TikTok before May.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Why Boeing's $21 billion share sale is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-capital-raise-ecm-bankers-bonuses-wall-street-comp-expert-2024-10">an early Christmas present for Wall Street</a>.</li><li>How Trump vs. Harris is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-political-contributions-by-name-for-trump-vs-harris-2024-8">playing out on Wall Street</a>.</li><li>The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cut-rates-inflation-powell-blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-2024-10">BlackRock CEO says</a>.</li><li>Microsoft just ramped up its cloud rivalry with Google by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-google-shadow-campaigns-cloud-regulation-undermine-business-azure-2024-10">accusing it of 'shadow campaigns'</a>.</li><li>Snap <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snap-surges-gets-major-boost-from-ai-push-paid-users-2024-10">surges 10%</a> as it gets a major boost from AI and paid subscribers.</li><li>Google's been on an efficiency drive. Its new CFO said it can '<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-cfo-boost-efficiency-2024-10">push a little further</a>.'</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Mark Zuckerberg speaking on stage." height="1600" width="2870" msid="114782278" hostid="261" sizebytes="38034"></div><ol><li>Wall Street has high hopes for Meta. Thanks to the company's AI optimization, analysts generally <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10">expect positive figures</a> from Meta's third-quarter earnings report today. Bank of America has said the stock is a top AI pick, and investors are keeping an eye on AI growth opportunities.</li><li>Citadel's playing the long game with its shorts. Justin Lubell, the hedge fund's global equities head, said the firm's longest-running equities group made more money shorting stocks than its long-term investments in recent years. Lubell said the strategy benefits from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-citadel-focuses-on-shorting-stocks-according-to-justin-lubell-2024-10">the lack of competition on the short side</a>.</li><li>Two of Wall Street's top executives speculate on Trump's bid for a second term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who has endorsed Donald Trump, thinks the former president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be "efficient and effective" during his second go around</a>. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to win next week.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A Linkedin logo sitting on a short stack of applications next to a large stack of applications" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782270" hostid="261" sizebytes="192558"></div><ol><li>Can LinkedIn save us from hiring hell? The platform wants to help job-seekers apply smarter, not harder, by using AI to optimize the process. The goal is quality over quantity: LinkedIn hopes you'll apply to fewer jobs, but the ones you'll swing for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-broken-linkedin-ai-fix-fewer-jobs-resume-spammers-2024-10">will be better matches</a>.</li><li>Amazon Web Services' Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its own line of homegrown central processing unit chips for data-center servers. Now, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-graviton-chips-used-by-90-percent-top-1000-customers-2024-10">90% of AWS's largest server customers have become Graviton users</a>, a company executive told BI.</li><li>Five Apple Intelligence features you can try out now on your iPhone. Some of the highly anticipated AI tools include one that helps summarize long messages, one that limits disruptions, and another that can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-intelligence-features-tested-on-iphone-16-pro-max-2024-10">edit randos out of your photos</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Harris and Trump." height="1600" width="2400" msid="114782274" hostid="261" sizebytes="312674"></div><ol><li>How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact what you pay for housing. Affordable housing is one of America's top economic concerns heading into the election. Here's how each candidate's proposed policies would affect housing supply, first-time home buyers, urban vs. rural housing, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">action against big landlords</a>.</li><li>Alphabet surpassed its third-quarter earnings expectations. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">Google's parent company delivered beats on revenue</a>, earnings per share, its advertising business, and Google Cloud revenue. The search giant is all-in on AI — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-code-created-by-ai-2024-10">CEO Sundar Pichai said</a> more than a quarter of the company's new code is created by AI and then checked by employees.</li><li>Is X being influenced by Elon Musk or its users? Musk is self-proclaimed "super MAGA." And X, the social media platform he owns, is more likely to show content from right-leaning accounts, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. But it's unclear whether the platform is showing users what they want to see or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-twitter-x-wsj-washington-post-2024-10">what Musk wants them to see</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q3 economic growth data.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Market analysts predicted choppy trading and sharp swings going into the US presidential election.</li><li>Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, fueling uncertainty among traders.</li></ul>Market analysts are braced for volatility ahead of Tuesday's presidential election as traders <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-trump-trade-stock-market-bonds-commodities-tariffs-fed-2024-7">shuffled their bets</a> on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory.The Republican and Democratic candidates are neck and neck in many polls,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11"> fueling uncertainty</a> in the finance world over who'll emerge triumphant, and clouding the outlook for everything from tax and trade policy to corporate regulation and geopolitics.One analyst underscored the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11"> critical importance</a> of the election in research notes on Monday, while another touted economic fundamentals as more important to markets and predicted long-term investors would likely win over time. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates</a> by 25 basis points on Thursday, while China's central bank is set to unveil some form of economic stimulus measures later this week. Here's a roundup of analysts' comments:<h2 id="b051a4d3-ca66-47f5-83ad-6b65851acac1">Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets</h2>"US and European stock futures are trading flat as traders continue to focus on one thing and one thing alone, and that is the US elections. Basically, there is nothing else that matters; it is not going to be earnings that would move things in the markets, and it won't be the US jobs noisy number that would make traders think about the US economy. The only thing that is going to keep them occupied is the US election and who will become the next president of the most powerful country in the world."<h2 id="f123d804-bdf0-46b3-b1b2-46b4a53ef227">Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets</h2>"A shift in the polls seen over the weekend signal the potential for a Harris victory in Iowa; with a surge in the older female demographic signaling a shift that many believe could carry Harris to victory. Coming at a time when markets appeared to have taken a Trump victory as a given, the polls are a timely reminder that betting markets may not be the best indication of who will become the President of the United States."The election looks significantly more of a contest than many had been expecting, which could provide a more protracted and volatile period ahead as we see potential recounts and challenges to potentially drag out this process."<h2 id="4192d8db-abfb-4db3-8486-f24c3eb9af7b">Principal Asset Management</h2>"Despite short-term volatility, historical trends reveal that equities have consistently posted strong gains by the end of a presidential term, underscoring the benefits of maintaining a long-term investment perspective. The drivers of market performance — economic growth, corporate earnings, and innovation — ultimately outshine the impact of political changes."Investors should take caution. Those who allow their political opinions to cloud their investing decisions could miss out on the potential rewards that come with staying invested in the market over the long-term."<h2 id="5a32ad08-8e3d-45d5-a08a-4420d2d2de45">Hal Cook, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown</h2>"With the election being an effective coin toss, betting on a specific outcome doesn't seem sensible. Instead, remember that diversification is your friend."<h2 id="989e296a-dd0f-43f5-90c6-c0bd1cc6ef19">Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB</h2>"The main US blue-chip index is up 20% year-to-date, which does not suggest that the market is seriously pricing in the risk of civic violence after this election, which could rock financial markets and cause a global wave of risk aversion."An interesting development leading up to this election is that financial markets expect Trump to win, and the Trump trade has performed well in recent weeks, as you can see in the chart below. The Trump trade is a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/ higher bond yields and stronger crypto. With one day left of this campaign, the dollar is falling, and the dollar index is at a two-week low. Thus, if Harris does win on Tuesday we could see a rapid unwinding of this trade, a sharp weakening of the dollar and intense volatility in the FX and bond market."We expect Monday and Tuesday to be quiet for markets, however, once we get the first drip feed of results on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect fireworks."

Prepare for market volatility but don't panic trade, analysts say ahead of Election Day  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>VCs are lobbing cash at the presidential election and key congressional races, FEC data shows.</li><li>While most VCs favored Democrats, a16z's crypto giving dwarfed all other donations.</li></ul>America is bitterly divided over politics, and the tech industry — once portrayed as a liberal bastion — is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-a-distraction-silicon-valley-wants-to-be-over-2024-8">no different.</a> Among the sector's investor class, these disputes typically play out behind closed doors, with checkbooks rather than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-political-divide-twitter-elon-musk-kamala-harris-2024-8">angry social media posts</a>.This election cycle, investors at the top venture capital firms have plowed tens of millions of dollars into the election, both backing their favored political candidates and just cannily promoting commercial interests.Business Insider trawled political donation data released by the Federal Elections Commission to see how employees at VC firms have donated by candidates and political entities as the hotly contested race enters its final phase.The data is limited, focusing only on a subjective grouping of 10 high-profile firms, and cutting off at varying points over the summer. More recent FEC donor data will be released in the days and weeks ahead of the November 5 general election, often the most turbulent time in any cycle.The sheer volume of donations captured in the FEC filings underscores the significance of the tech constituency in the political arena, how the Silicon Valley elite has embraced politics of late, and just how flooded by money modern American politics has become.<h3 id="dd94bff4-8a0b-4fe4-8f40-59db1deb3131">The big spenders</h3>For venture capitalists, talking politics can invite scrutiny — or worse, turn off founders seeking funds for what might be the next big thing. It's part of the reason why many firms won't take positions on political issues or push a candidate on their employees.While that hasn't stopped individual investors from voting with their dollars, many VC firms are quick to point out that donations do not represent the organization's political stance.Except when they do.Andreessen Horowitz, or a16z, is the sole firm in our dataset to make political contributions directly. In this election cycle, it contributed $47 million to groups working to elect blockchain-friendly candidates, including Fairshake, a titanic crypto-industry backed super PAC. The firm is all-in on crypto, investing in Solana and Yuga Labs, and launched a $4.5 billion investment fund focused on this area in 2022.While the names of the firm's founders, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, also appear on filings for donations to these groups, a16z says on its <a target="_blank" href="https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/contributing-to-fairshake-pac/">website</a> that these contributions come from the firm, not the founders personally. Though the distinction a16z draws between itself and its founders might be slightly artificial, given Andreessen and Horowitz created, own, and named the firm after themselves.For all the brouhaha about Andreessen and Horowitz putting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vcs-in-silicon-valley-2024-7">millions of dollars</a> behind Trump's latest bid for the White House and Horowitz hedging his bets with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-ben-horowitzs-email-a16z-saying-plans-donate-kamala-harris-2024-10">a planned donation to Harris</a>, the data shows the two are a rare breed among venture investors: relatively bipartisan donors.Horowitz sent roughly 59% of his personal political contributions to Republicans and a little under 40% to Democrats, while Andreessen more strongly favored Republicans this election cycle, with 64% of his donations.In the time period covered by the data, a16z even eclipsed Greylock, where outgoing partner and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">Democrat megadonor</a> Reid Hoffman has personally pumped nearly $30 million in recorded donations into the presidential election and key congressional races.Investors at Founders Fund, which has backed SpaceX and Palantir, are nearly 100% Republican in donations, though the bulk of contributions came from Keith Rabois, who left the firm in January to rejoin Khosla Ventures. Employees of venerable firm Kleiner Perkins are the opposite, giving almost entirely to Democratic causes, as is the case for Y Combinator, the colossal startup accelerator.Like Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital is largely bipartisan. Unlike a16z, its biggest donors are largely split on party lines. Michael Moritz, who left the firm midway through last year and continues to serve as an advisor to Sequoia Heritage, its wealth management group, gives to Democrats, while Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire donates to Republicans.<h3 id="3ae3c5f1-4f98-4417-8e68-d3e367656034">Number-crunching</h3>When a candidate's campaign or other political entity receives political donations, they must report it either quarterly or monthly to the FEC, along with information about the donors, including the donor's employer. The federal agency processes these filings, before releasing them in a searchable format on its website.The data analyzed for this story cuts off on August 31 for entities that report donations on a monthly basis (including presidential campaigns, national party committees, and some PACs), while the cut-off for entities that report quarterly (including Congressional committees and some PACs) is June 30. (The filing deadline for Q3 data for quarterly filing entities was October 15, but this data isn't yet readily available in full online.)Business Insider selected 10 venture capital firms to focus on, taking into account fund size and cultural and industry significance. The list encompasses employees ranging from general partners and firm founders to marketers and executive assistants.The findings should not be interpreted as an exhaustive accounting of all venture capital investors' donations to date, but as a comparative analysis of how some of the industry's most significant players have approached political giving over the summer as the election heated up.Business Insider divided the recipients into three categories: Democrat-aligned, Republican-aligned, and unaffiliated — a grouping that includes both bipartisan groups like Fairshake and independents like West Virginia senator Joe Manchin, as well as organizations like The Lincoln Project, run by self-described Republicans but in practice supporting Democratic causes.<h3 id="383b71f4-35bb-4d3d-9fd8-a1daae48b9df">Hoffman vs. Horowitz</h3>Hoffman, the top individual donor, has developed a reputation as tech's Democratic Party standard-bearer. In this election cycle, records show his efforts include $2 million to help fund an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/01/31/billionaire-reid-hoffman-spent-2-million-on-bidens-new-hampshire-write-in-campaign-fec-records-show/">unusual write-in effort</a> for President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, and millions to joint fundraising committees for Harris after Biden dropped out. Hoffman also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/us/politics/nikki-haley-reid-hoffman-donation.html">gave $250,000</a> to a super PAC supporting Nikki Haley, the last major candidate to challenge Trump for the Republican nomination.Most donors more closely resemble Hoffman than Horowitz: clearly partisan, with an overwhelming majority of their donations going to support one party.Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures is another of the biggest donors on the Democratic side of the aisle, with more than $3 million in recorded donations during the time period to recipients including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Harris' presidential campaign. Khosla's giving puts him just above John Doerr, chairman of Kleiner Perkins and architect of cleantech investing, though he hasn't managed funds for the firm in a decade.Sequoia Capital's Doug Leone is one of VC's most prolific GOP-aligned political donors, giving his almost $3.8 million to the National Republican Committee and other causes.The vehicle of choice for many of these donations is via super PACs, a controversial political fundraising tool that can raise unlimited funds — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/">bypassing FEC limits on donations</a> to candidates and other committees — but cannot directly coordinate with candidates. Asides from Fairshake, some of the biggest super PACs out there favored by VC investors include Future Forward PAC, a tech billionaire-linked Democrat-supporting group, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-america-super-pac-2024-10">America PAC, a right-wing entity founded by Elon Musk</a>.Investors also gave to several joint fundraising committees, which take money for multiple candidates or organizations. They, too, became favored over the years because a joint fundraising committee allows candidates to rake in cash while sharing the costs of fundraising — think website hosting fees, high-end hotels, and catering for splashy Hamptons fundraisers. The most well-loved committees in our dataset were the Harris Victory Fund and Harris Action Fund, the joint fundraising efforts between the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and state Democratic committees.Reached for comment by Business Insider, none of the named investment firms agreed to make employees available for interviews about their political giving. Perhaps, from the donors' perspectives, they don't need to: They're already putting their money where their mouth is.Have a tip or a story? Connect with Melia Russell via email at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:mrussell@insider.com">mrussell@businessinsider.com</a> or by phone at (603) 913-3085. Reach Rob Price at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:rprice@insider.com">rprice@businessinsider.com</a>. For sensitive matters, use the Signal app on a non-work device for encrypted messaging.

Venture capital is going to war over the election. Here's the data to prove it. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The 2024 election is already the most litigated in US history.</li><li>Republicans and Democrats have been involved in a bevy of pre-election lawsuits.</li></ul>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-will-it-take-to-call-us-presidential-election-2024-10">2024 US presidential election</a> just days away, the high-stakes race is already the most litigated in modern American history.For months, Republican allies of former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidency-impact-ai-artificial-intelligence-2024-10">Donald Trump</a> and Democratic allies of Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-closing-argument-washington-dc-speech-policty-economy-trump-2024-10">Kamala Harris</a>, have been involved in a barrage of pre-election lawsuits, with Republicans waging the majority of the legal challenges in key battleground ground states. And while preelection litigation might not feel like a fundamental part of democratic presidential elections in the US, the 2024 cycle has proved it to be a keystone political strategy."Probably the most discouraging part of this whole litigation experiment is that it has little or no connection to democracy and credible elections," said John Hardin Young, an election law expert and senior counsel at the Washington, DC, law firm Sandler Reiff Lamb Rosenstein &amp; Birkenstock."It's gamesmanship," said Young, who said litigation has "become part of the political strategy.""It's, in a way, a prelude to postelection challenges where the political message has been mangled together with the litigation," he added.Legal experts told Business Insider some of the lawsuits brought by Republicans could set the stage for potential court challenges after the election on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-impact-companies-trump-harris-2024-10">November 5.</a>But it all really depends on how close the election between Trump and Harris is, the experts said. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">National polls</a> suggest the race for the White House will be a tight one.The Republican National Committee said that the party's "election integrity" operation, announced earlier this year with the Trump campaign, has been involved in 130 lawsuits across 26 states this election cycle.Many of the lawsuits center on the handling of mail-in voting, overseas ballots, and voter rolls. Democrats have intervened in a slew of them.When the RNC announced the "election integrity" program back in April, it said it would deploy more than 100,000 volunteers and attorneys across all battleground states."This gives voters confidence that their ballot will be counted properly, and in turn, inspires voter turnout," RNC spokeswoman Claire Zunk told BI in a statement. "While Democrats continue to interfere in our election and dismantle election safeguards, we are protecting the vote for all Americans."The Trump campaign declined to comment for this story, referring BI to Zunk's statement. Harris' campaign referred BI to a previous interview with a campaign spokesperson discussing litigation strategy.<h2 id="4aadeff5-56ea-4983-849f-48a2f25372bd">Harris campaign memo says the Republican lawsuits aim to 'sow doubt'</h2>Operatives for the Harris campaign said in a recent memo to "interested parties" that Republicans' lawsuits are "part of an effort to sow doubt" in the results of the 2024 election."Trump Republicans believe they have a better chance of winning when fewer people vote and fewer votes are counted. That's why they are spreading misinformation and filing dozens of baseless lawsuits in an obvious attempt to suppress voter turnout," the October 11 memo obtained by Business Insider says.The memo was written by Dana Remus, President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Joe Biden's</a> former White House counsel who is now leading the Harris campaign's legal team, and Monica Guardiola, the Democratic National Committee's acting co-executive director.It says that Democrats are "prepared and enter this final stretch with a playbook to protect the integrity of our elections — before and after November 5."Democrats, they say, have already intervened in "dozens of baseless Republican lawsuits to debunk their lies and defeat them in court."The DNC, together with the Harris campaign, have scored 15 court wins over the last three weeks, largely after intervening in lawsuits brought by Republicans, the campaign told BI.The memo says the upcoming election is already the "most litigated in American history," but that the campaign is the most prepared.The 2020 general election previously held the record as the most litigious in modern history.In the two-month period between November 3, 2020 and January 6, 2021, plaintiffs filed 82 lawsuits in 10 states and the District of Columbia, according to the Post-Election Litigation Analysis by the Stanford-MIT Healthy Election Project.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_interest/election_law/litigation/">The American Bar Association</a> logs less than 40 preelection lawsuits having been filed before Election Day 2020.As of November 1, there were a record 203 voting and election cases pending in 40 states, with 25 lawsuits alone filed in the battleground state of Georgia, Democratic election attorney Marc Elias, who is also part of the Harris campaign's legal team, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/marceelias/status/1852343593744150952">said</a> on X.And more are expected.<div type="image" title="Trump addressing the RNC on Thursday." height="1500" width="2400" msid="114947214" hostid="261" sizebytes="223364"></div><h2 id="909afd83-4da5-414d-b8dd-21382fdaf7bc">Republican legal strategy is more organized than 2020</h2>In recent weeks, Republicans have faced a series of court losses but have also had some success.A federal judge in the swing state of Pennsylvania this week <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-military-overseas-ballots-1cb8e5b1b4e564482125e1633642c06b">dismissed</a> a lawsuit brought by a group of Republican congressmen that sought new verification requirements involving overseas and military ballots. Judges in the swing states of Michigan and North Carolina also recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2024-overseas-voters-north-carolina-michigan-758923beadbcbe9cd70a974806c27279">rejected RNC challenges</a> targeting overseas voting.The RNC pointed BI to nine recent court wins, including when a panel of Trump-appointed judges from the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Mississippi's law of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/mississippi-absentee-ballot-voting-d65b943c27e9e7c5247dc2c14d3dbb15">counting properly postmarked mail-in ballots</a> received after Election Day violates federal law.Young, the election law expert, called the wave of litigation "part of the political messaging.""The Republican litigation strategy doesn't seem to follow any particular rules, but really is an attempt to throw anything against the wall and see if anything sticks," he said.Republican's 2024 litigation strategy, though, seems much more organized than in 2020 when Trump and his allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-lawsuits-election-results-2020-11">brought more than 60 lawsuits</a> alleging voter fraud in unsuccessful attempts to challenge the results after Election Day, said Sophia Lin Lakin, a voting rights lawyer at the American Civil Liberties Union. The ACLU is involved in dozens of election-related lawsuits."In 2020, it felt slapdash and very reactive and improvisational," Lakin said, adding that now Republicans' efforts seem to be more strategic with the laying of "narrative groundwork.""There is definitely a fair number of lawsuits that really do seem to have served no purpose other than a narrative purpose" to potentially be leveraged in the event that the election results are not favored by Republicans, said Lakin.To tighten and not repeatpart about setting groun rules, maybe we cut graf above and below and add this transition graf below:Jason Torchinsky, a partner at the law firm Holtzman Vogel and a Republican election lawyer, told BI filing lawsuits before the election is an effective strategy.there's no doubt there has been an "unprecedented level of preelection litigation" this cycle, "but all of that litigation is aimed at setting the ground rules whether you're coming at it from the right or the left.""Preelection litigation to set ground rules is often much more successful than postelection litigation," Torchinsky said, explaining, "The courts are very, very reluctant to look like they are determining the outcomes of elections."<h2 id="240a3465-ceb0-4039-86a1-45b348592c02">A possible 'period of uncertainty' after the election</h2>During a Zoom panel discussion this week, Elias warned there may be a "period of uncertainty" after Election Day."But honestly, there have been periods of uncertainty after the elections for many years. It's just people get more anxious about them now," he said."So I think if people vote, they should have confidence that the process will almost certainly sort itself out OK," he said.

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