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No one's going to sound an alarm, blast out a text message, or shoot you an email about it, but the US economy is undergoing a historic shift. We are leaving one long period of expansion — what economists refer to as a "supercycle" — and entering a very different one.Over the past 15 years, the economy has been characterized by weak demand and low interest rates — a decade-and-a-half hangover from the Great Recession. Now, experts tell me, that is coming to an end. The world has changed, and we are entering an era of higher growth, creeping inflation, and geopolitical instability that will reroute the flow of money around the world. A new era has arrived, but it's going to be bumpy.The good news is that this new era looks as if it will be unencumbered by some of the problems that put a ceiling on growth during the previous era. The most salient feature of the old period, economists say, was the risk of deflation — the possibility that a lack of demand would cause wages and prices to spiral downward, a trap that is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-economy-deflation-unemployment-job-market-recession-outlook-paul-krugman-2024-7">extremely difficult to escape</a>. In an effort to avoid that fate, policymakers in Washington pushed interest rates down to zero and encouraged <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/softbank-crashing-investments-uber-wework-monopoly-failure-2019-11">all kinds</a> of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charlatans-show-up-when-wall-street-stock-market-gets-weird-2021-3">risky</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/twilight-of-tech-gods-recession-stock-market-crash-silicon-valley-2022-5">behavior</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackmans-big-pharma-trade-is-making-wall-street-a-super-awkward-place-2014-10">among</a> investors, businesses, and everyday consumers. Investors trying to reach their benchmarks "had to creep out on the risk spectrum," Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard, tells me. "Supercheap debt," he says, made it easy for businesses to "overexpand and overhire."The pro-risk environment had some earth-shifting consequences. Silicon Valley put the internet on our phones, China blew a massive bubble in its property market, and the world started investing in renewable energy. But low interest rates did little to boost demand, and the economy consistently grew slower than it did before the crash, never notching above 3% GDP growth. It was only after the massive government stimulus, spurred by the pandemic, that the economy reached escape velocity, pushing up wages and starting to grow at a healthy clip.Now, economists say, we're entering a supercycle that will be characterized by three sweeping forces. First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. Second, geopolitical and economic volatility will generate inflationary effects, reintroducing the specter of soaring prices. And third, industrial planning will be increasingly influenced by national-security concerns, altering supply chains across industries. How low interest rates wind up settling will establish a new gravitational pull in global markets, recalibrating the forces that determine where the economy is most likely to grow — and where investment is most likely to flow.The new supercycle "puts the economy in a completely new era," says Silas Myers, the CEO of Mar Vista Investments, which oversees $4 billion in assets. He warns that an entire generation of investors, lenders, and entrepreneurs have failed to embrace the "profound impact" that the new economic era will have on their businesses."We were in a time that was less demanding and more forgiving," Myers says. "But that time is ending."One of the clearest signs that a new economic supercycle has arrived is when the financial rules go topsy-turvy. The previous supercycle was ushered in when the Federal Reserve, in response to the destruction caused by the financial crisis, cut its benchmark interest rate to 0% — the first time the central bank went all the way to the bottom.The structural shift sent shockwaves throughout the world. Yields on Treasury bonds tanked, meaning investors had to start taking some serious risks if they wanted to make money. This new adventurism pushed stocks higher and higher. Capital went flying into China and other emerging markets in record amounts — some $1 trillion in 2010 alone. Venture capitalists sank billions into companies like Juicero and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-adam-neumann-apartment-startup-investment-silicon-valley-vc-apocalypse-2022-8">WeWork</a> that had no viable plan to turn a profit. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Until the pandemic hit, inflation and wage growth both remained below 3.9%. The world had changed. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. But that's no longer true. From 2022 to 2024, as the benchmark federal funds rate shot up to 5.5% from 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&amp;P 500 soared by 23% and 22%. Higher interest rates also failed to spur widespread layoffs or crater the economy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-layoffs-quits-recession-sahm-rule-2024-8">Unemployment has stayed below 4.3%</a>, and GDP growth has remained solid, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-us-economy-2024-7">defying fears of a recession</a>. In short, something has scrambled the natural interactions of the marketplace. It's as if you put your hand over a hot stove and your fingers turned ice cold.One explanation for the economy's topsy-turvy behavior is a change in what economists call the neutral interest rate — the optimal point for encouraging growth without triggering inflation. After the financial crisis in 2008, the economy was so weak that the neutral rate went to zero to encourage money to flow more freely. But now the market's weird nature may be signaling that the neutral rate has risen above the Fed's ideal target of 2%. That would explain why the Fed's higher rates are no longer putting the brakes on growth. Fueled by the post-pandemic government stimulus, the economy's baseline has shifted. Over at Vanguard, Hirt and his colleagues predict that the neutral rate will stay higher for the foreseeable future, eventually settling at about 3.5%."Even if we do dip below 3.5%, the Fed will be anchored at that higher rate," Hirt says. "If the economy were to experience weakness and we have to cut rates, we still don't think that means taking rates back to zero."Unless you're a boomer, you've probably never experienced a world with this high a neutral rate. It changes the nature of risk, which changes what people decide to do with money on micro and macro levels. If you can get a decent return parking your money in ultrasafe government debt, why risk investing it in a startup or stomach the stock market's volatility? This isn't to say no one will be out here taking risks with their cash — it will just flow in different directions. That's because consumers are in a better place now than they were in the era that emerged after the Great Recession.The economy is "an extraordinarily diverse and dynamic animal," Joe Quinlan, the chief market strategist at Bank of America, assured clients in a recent note. It's "a $28 trillion hydra-headed behemoth that beats to the tune of many different sectors." As the Fed's higher rates were putting a strain on rate-sensitive sectors like housing — which makes up 16% of the economy — Big Tech and travel-starved households were spending money fast and loose. The experience showed that overall consumption can continue to rise even when significant swaths of the economy are struggling.So what can we expect from the new economic supercycle? Like every cycle, it will have its upsides and downsides. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt. But they'll also boost savings accounts and interest income. In addition, a faster-growing economy will tighten the labor market, empowering workers to continue to fight for a larger slice of the pie. Since 2019, the bottom 10% of earners have seen a wage increase of 13%.Shifting away from the "grow at all costs" mindset of the previous supercycle has also incentivized governments — especially in the developed world — to do more to police markets and protect consumers. Whether it's capping the price of drugs or enforcing antitrust rules more aggressively, polls suggest Americans want to see <a target="_blank" href="https://prospect.org/economy/2024-08-27-polling-voters-action-corporate-power/">more limits</a> on <a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/47798-most-americans-oppose-monopolies-and-support-antitrust-laws">corporate power</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/07/20/56-of-americans-support-more-regulation-of-major-technology-companies/">more regulation</a> to safeguard citizens. For the first time in years, the Federal Trade Commission has begun going after pharmaceutical middlemen, opposing mergers between grocery giants, and taking big swings at Big Tech.The new supercycle will also have profound consequences worldwide, upending how and where money is most likely to flow. In China, the debt bubble that formed in the property sector during the previous cycle is sucking cash away from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">businesses and households</a>, undermining China's bid to become the world's leading economic superpower. And with Europe growing more slowly than the US, foreign investors are steering more of their money to America. In the second quarter of this year, foreign investors owned $8.2 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds, up by 7.3% from a year earlier. Foreign investment is also soaring in US corporate bonds (up by 9.8%) and US equities (up by 23%). Quinlan says he expects the US economy to continue outperforming the rest of the world, given the fiscal and demographic challenges facing the European Union, Japan, and China. In an era of increasing instability, when former sources of growth are flailing, the United States is widely viewed as the safest place to find returns."Not lost on investors is the fact that the US economy remains among the most competitive, innovative, and resilient in the world," Quinlan wrote in a recent note to investors. "Aerospace or agriculture, energy or entertainment, transportation or technology, goods or services — pick any sector or activity, and there's a good chance the US leads the rest of the world. All of this has helped fuel demand among foreign investors for US securities of all stripes." America's economic diversification is also expected to give it a leg up in one of the most volatile features of the new era: trade conflict. The US and China are already battling for control over critical industries like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jiinping-future-tech-global-economy-semiconductors-military-failing-2022-9">semiconductors</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crushing-us-america-battle-energy-evs-batteries-tech-war-2023-5">batteries</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-crush-tesla-elon-musk-american-ev-industry-2024-2">electric cars</a> — and the tit for tat will be especially costly for less diversified economies. Germany's dependence on manufacturing, for example, places its most essential industries on a collision course with China's ambitions. And while the United States is well positioned to weather the storm, that doesn't mean it won't be rough. The world has never faced a challenge like the skyrocketing flow of exports from China up and down the value chain. It's a dynamic that threatens to imbalance international trade by flooding the market with cheap goods of all kinds. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-shock-explainer-us-economy-trade-dumping-supply-glut-yellen-2024-4">China Shock 2.0</a> "will not go down easily," Quinlan tells me.For over a decade we have become accustomed to the economy working a certain way — if this, then that. As a new supercycle emerges, investors, businesses, and governments that structured themselves around the old model may experience acute shocks. To succeed in this unfamiliar new world, they'll have to adjust their expectations and find ways to harness the supercycle's opportunities. It's the economic equivalent of natural selection: As the economy evolves, those who adapt will be most likely to survive. The days of economic growth are back. The future belongs to those who can grow with it.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

America is entering a new 'economic supercycle'

Google's new report on <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (AI) emphasizes responsible AI development and suggests recommendations for policymakers, companies, and civil society. The report titled "An AI Opportunity Agenda for India" outlines how artificial intelligence can drive <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>, social progress and global leadership for the nation. The report says India with its rapidly growing economy, outstanding tech talent, young demography and vibrant start-up ecosystem, is poised to reap the immense benefits of artificial intelligence. A comprehensive and responsible approach to AI can unlock significant economic growth and societal progress in India. "The potential economic impact of AI in India is substantial - reports estimate that at least INR 33.8 lakh crore of economic value from <keyword id="20037918" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="AI-adoption" source="keywords">AI adoption</keyword> can be achieved in India in 2030. While these achievements signify a promising beginning, unlocking the full potential of AI hinges on the strategic decisions we make today," says a Google's press release. The report suggests that to maximize the AI opportunity for India collaborative efforts are needed across government, industry, and civil society. They need to prioritise three key areas which include investments in infrastructure and innovation, building human capital and an AI-powered workforce and promoting wide adoption and universal accessibility. AI is already addressing some of the most pressing challenges like revolutionizing farming practices and improving <keyword id="20646060" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthcare-access" source="keywords">healthcare access</keyword>. The <keyword id="20214323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agriculture-sector" source="keywords">agriculture sector</keyword> is getting the benefits of AI through minimizing climate risks, optimizing productivity and sustainability, and providing access to real-time crop pricing information and early warning of potential crop threats. Many <keyword id="23569666" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-powered-platforms" source="keywords">AI-powered platforms</keyword> are empowering farmers to boost crop yields and encourage sustainable practices. In the healthcare sector, AI is being used for better diagnosis, bigger access, and personalized care, especially for underserved communities. Google has partnered with <keyword id="23569667" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ARMMAN" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ARMMAN" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ARMMAN">ARMMAN</keyword> to use AI to identify women at risk of dropping out of their health information program, allowing for personalized interventions to improve maternal health outcomes. ARMAAN seeks to address the pervasive systemic problems underlying maternal and child mortality and morbidity in India.

AI adoption can unleash Rs 33.8 lakh crore of economic benefit to India in 2030: Google Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spain's eastern province of Valencia was hit by intense, historic rainfall.</li><li>51 people were killed in flash floods in the province.</li></ul>Historic flash floods in eastern Spain killed 51 people and roiled the region.The floods, brought about by torrential rains, killed 51 in the province of Valencia, regional emergency services <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/GVA112/status/1851541597092999643">said</a>, citing a provisional death toll.Though heavy rains are common in the region in fall — part of a phenomenon known as "cold drops" — this one was extreme.According to Spain's State Meteorological <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/AEMET_CValencia/status/1851494356521271313?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851494356521271313%7Ctwgr%5E525da56094d9d8f9387e40796aa4f86c244670c4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcadenaser.com%2Fnacional%2F2024%2F10%2F29%2Fconsecuencias-de-la-dana-en-espana-en-directo-ultima-hora-de-las-inundaciones-desaparecidos-y-problemas-en-los-trenes-ave-cadena-ser%2F">Agency</a>, it was a historic storm, the worst of the 21st century and more severe than anything since 1987.Images and videos from the region showed brown water surging through fields, blocking roads, and hitting some built-up areas.<div type="image" title="The roof of a car submerged in water following floods is pictured in Picuana, near Valencia, eastern Spain, on October 30, 2024." height="1296" width="2000" msid="114776446" hostid="261" sizebytes="105062"></div>The flooding seemed not to strongly hit Valencia, the regional hub and Spain's third-largest city.Per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investinspain.org/en/regions/comunidad-valenciana/industrias-destacadas#:~:text=Automotive%2C%20machinery%20and%20capital%20goods,concentrates%2024%25%20of%20regional%20exports.">a Spanish government briefing</a>, the auto industry is the most significant in Valencia province. It also mentioned chemicals, manufacturing, agri-food and IT.It was not immediately clear whether particular industries or companies had been strongly affected by the floods.Valencia's government advised against road travel in the province due to "heavy" rain warnings in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/GVA112/status/1851506499224314148?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851506499224314148%7Ctwgr%5E525da56094d9d8f9387e40796aa4f86c244670c4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcadenaser.com%2Fnacional%2F2024%2F10%2F29%2Fconsecuencias-de-la-dana-en-espana-en-directo-ultima-hora-de-las-inundaciones-desaparecidos-y-problemas-en-los-trenes-ave-cadena-ser%2F">alert texts</a> sent to residents in the early hours of Wednesday, local time.In an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/oscar_puente_/status/1851415872843215275?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851415872843215275%7Ctwgr%5E525da56094d9d8f9387e40796aa4f86c244670c4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcadenaser.com%2Fnacional%2F2024%2F10%2F29%2Fconsecuencias-de-la-dana-en-espana-en-directo-ultima-hora-de-las-inundaciones-desaparecidos-y-problemas-en-los-trenes-ave-cadena-ser%2F">X post</a> on Wednesday, Spain's transport minister said there would be no train service on the railway line connecting Valencia to Madrid, the Spanish capital, until at least 10 a.m. local time.On Tuesday, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/sanchezcastejon/status/1851334094535131602">said</a> he was closely following reports of missing people and damage caused by the storm and that all emergency services were being dispatched in response to the storm.In an X <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link c-link--focus-visible" href="https://x.com/mjosecatala/status/1851561473631191545">post</a> on Wednesday, Valencia city mayor said the province is facing one of the "most difficult and painful" moments in its history.

Spain hit by flash floods that killed 51 people and roiled an economic hub

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes edged up on Tuesday as markets eyed incoming inflation data this week. </li><li>The rally slowed, but stocks added to records notched in Monday's session. </li></ul>US stocks added to records on Tuesday, with the blistering rally since last week slowing slightly as traders prepared to take in new inflation data this week. A five-day rally helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 notch <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets">fresh closing highs on Monday</a>, with many assets lumped into the Trump trade seeing a continued boost from the President-Elect's victory. Among them, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> came close to hitting the $90,000 mark for the first time in early trading on Tuesday. The crypto industry <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-industry-donald-trump-election-reserve-regulation-sec-2024-11">expects to benefit</a> from Trump's friendly stance toward digital assets, with markets hoping for less regulation of the space. The rally slowed as markets approached the October consumer inflation report. The consumer price index will be published on Wednesday, and Wall Street will be monitoring for any material shifts in inflation.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in CPI, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month. Any meaningful surprise could upend expectations over the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next months.Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 6,008.06, up 0.11%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 44,341.72, up 0.11% (+48.59 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,328.04, up 0.16% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-bond-yields-selloff-risk-trump-trade-tariff-immigration-tax-2024-11?_gl=1*m3ciw*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDE5NjMzLjYwLjAuMA..">The stock market's Trump bump could end once Treasury yields reach 5%</a>, JPMorgan says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">Trump's proposed trade war boosts chances of a US recession to 75%</a>, according to BCA Research.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tax-cuts-tariffs-stock-market-sp500-inflation-china-trade-war-2024-11?_gl=1*1ipv5dl*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDE5ODg5LjU2LjAuMA..">Trump's tax cuts could boost S&amp;P 500 earnings by 20% over the next 2 years</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-merger-crude-producer-rosneft-gazprom-lukoil-wsj-2024-11?_gl=1*qhoxcu*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDIwMjgxLjU3LjAuMA..">A report says Russia is considering merging three oil firms into the world's second-largest producer</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.3% to $68.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose by 1% to $72.62 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was about flat at $2,618 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.367%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 4% to $86,262. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Trump rally slows with stocks at record highs ahead of new economic data

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stock markets slumped after a 10-day rally that was driven by Beijing's stimulus announcement in September.</li><li>Investors were disappointed when a hyped-up Chinese government press briefing failed to deliver more stimulus.</li></ul>China's top leadership has a problem with its economic stimulus: its own investors at home saw right through the hype this week.China's domestic stock markets slumped on Wednesday after a 10-day blitz culminated in a two-year high.The mainland's benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 7.1% lower, while leading indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended the day 6.6% and 8.7% lower.China's domestic stock markets are dominated by over 200 million mom-and-pop retail investors, who account for about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/sg/en/thinking/articles/2024/q2/chinas-economy-enters-a-new-cycle-unveiling-fresh-opportunities-apac.html">70% of the trading volume.</a> so market movements reflect ground sentiment.The markets were boosted in late September after a stimulus announcement by the People's Bank of China. The CSI 300 index closed nearly 20% higher year-to-date before weeklong National Day public holidays. The markets reopened on Tuesday and ended higher, though that morning's immediate bump cooled off during the trading day.The rally fizzled because China's National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, lined up a highly anticipated press conference on the first working day after weeklong public holidays. But the commission did not introduce more stimulus measures, which dragged market sentiment.<h2 id="24dd9538-5d55-451b-902a-d6d1deb152fc">China watchers are more optimistic</h2>It looks like China's investors are less optimistic than market watchers elsewhere. Those abroad are expressing more confidence in the world's second-largest economy and seeing the bright side in this week's losses.Since the commission is actually responsible for implementation rather than funding initiatives, most analysts weren't expecting much stimulus in the first place.Some professionals even view this week's stock losses positively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index — dominated by institutional investors — ended the day down 1.4%, extending Tuesday's 9.5% slump. The index is 9.3% lower so far this week."We believe a pullback following a 36% rally in less than a month may be healthy in allowing market participants to reassess recent policy developments, while providing entry points for new investors and creating more balanced market participation," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at trading platform IG, in a Wednesday note about the Hong Kong market.Instead of harping on market jitters, economists are now pointing to Beijing's political commitment to improving the economy."To be sure, there may still be an expectations gap as announcements fall short of loftier expectations. But that's not as damaging as market misgivings about Beijing getting stimulus cold feet," Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's macro research head for Asia excluding Japan, wrote in a note on Wednesday.After the initial stimulus announcement on September 24, China's top leaders swiftly pledged support for the economy, including in the beleaguered property market.According to Xinhua state news agency, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202410/08/WS6705253aa310f1265a1c6860.html">Chinese Premier Li Qiang</a> called on the country to implement economic stabilization measures on Tuesday."There is a case to be made that Beijing's initial pronouncements of boosting the equity market, supporting housing unequivocally are sound commitments," wrote Varathan. He said that China is already in the midst of a hard landing — and Beijing knows it."And so, Beijing is now fully invested in efforts to extricate the economy holistically," he wrote.Economists are waiting for more meaningful support measures."We expect a fiscal package to be announced in coming weeks, including demand-boosting stimulus on consumption and investment, as well as further enhancement of social security, healthcare, and birth encouragement," wrote Hele Qiao, the Greater China chief economist and head of Asia economics research at BofA Global Research, on Tuesday.Qiao expects an announcement after the next meeting of China's top legislature, which typically takes place any time from mid-October to early November. The exact date will only be announced a week or two before the meeting.

The markets saw right through China's latest economic support hype

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>They point to increased uncertainty as the scope of the timing of Trump's sweeping tariffs remains unclear.</li></ul>As the world takes in the results of the US presidential election, regions around the world are determining what a Trump presidency might mean for their economies.Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. In 2026, the analysts said they expect growth of 1%, down from 1.1% and lower than the consensus estimate of versus 1.4%. Overall, the analysts expect the Euro area to take a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn set to materialize next year.The analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports.More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say. That uncertainty will pose a bigger hit to growth than the tariffs themselves, they said. "The actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by threatening to impose tariffs on Europe," the analysts said in a Wednesday note, adding, "The magnitude of the tariff increase, however, is unlikely to be clear for some time, and so we expect a pronounced further increase in TPU in the baseline scenario."The firm's trade policy uncertainty indicator for Europe has already risen in recent weeks as markets increasingly priced in odds of a Trump win.The analysts acknowledged, though, that while Trump's 10% across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, they expect his administration to initiate a more moderate set of duties on European countries.Those tariffs will likely target auto exports, which are worth $80 billion, or 0.9% of EU exports, the analysts said. The duties will have large impacts to GDP in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland in particular, they added. During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">at least 10%</a>, and said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">subject to even steeper 60% duties</a>.The analysts add that a Trump presidency will prompt European countries to up their defense spending to account for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">potential decrease</a> in US military support to Ukraine. That wartime support will cost the EU another 0.5% of GDP every year, the analysts say.The increased spending won't result in a growth boost, either, they say."Any resulting growth boost, however, will likely be limited by modest military spending multipliers in Europe, upward pressure on long-term yields from higher deficits and negative confidence effects from elevated geo-political risk," the analysts said.European officials have long warned of huge growth impacts from a second Trump presidency.Last month, ECB member Joachim Nagel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-economic-growth-inflation-risks-europe-ecb-germany-2024-10">warned</a> a Trump win could hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, and back in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe, pointing to his tariff plans, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies.

Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>After playing to the coasts, Hollywood is leaning toward faith and family-based shows and films.</li><li>Amazon and Netflix recently announced deals for faith-based content.</li></ul>This holiday season, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-studios-expansion-challenges-jennifer-salke-citadel-lord-rings-2023-2">Amazon MGM Studios</a> is set to release "House of David," a series with an epic production and global aspirations to match the breadth of its biblical source material. The Prime Video series will be the first to come out of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon">Amazon's</a> deal with The Wonder Project, a Christian-focused production company, for faith-based films and TV shows."We are very excited about the scope, scale and storytelling involved with 'House of David' and look forward to sharing this epic and many others with our global Prime Video customers," Vernon Sanders, head of television for Amazon MGM Studios, <a target="_blank" href="https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/amazon-wonder-project-faith-based-films-shows-house-of-david-1235875596/">said</a> in announcing the deal.After playing to the coasts with shows that embraced progressive themes, Hollywood is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-risk-averse-new-shows-tv-big-stars-snubbed-2024-9">leaning into broadly appealing fare</a>. That shift has included a combination of undeniably faith-based, conservative-themed, and family-aimed entertainment, agents, producers, and industry experts say.It's a long way from Amazon's early days in creating original entertainment that put it on the map, like "Transparent," which came out in 2013 as gender issues were on the political agenda. Studios head <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-studios-expansion-challenges-jennifer-salke-citadel-lord-rings-2023-2">Jennifer Salke, who came on board in 2018, said she was looking for</a> "curated" overbroad shows and pledged to seek out projects with diverse talent.<div type="image" title="yellowstone" height="1368" width="2132" msid="115016601" hostid="261" sizebytes="40586"></div>"They're heartland-curious," Nick Barnes, UTA's Nashville-based head of its Heartland division, said of the streamers. "It's, 'What's our Yellowstone?' I see cowboy boots every time I go to Los Angeles now." The Kevin Costner-starring Western and soapy family drama has become one of TV's most popular scripted shows.Disney CEO Bob Iger <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-woke-disney-is-over-not-silence-his-critics-2024-4">reversed</a> the company's proud embrace of diverse themes after getting hammered by critics on the right, trading movies like "Zootopia," which dealt with prejudice, for this year's "Deadpool &amp; Wolverine."Netflix, off the success of "Virgin River," a small-town romance that was just renewed for a seventh season, recently announced a deal with Tyler Perry and DeVon Franklin to make faith-based films starting with "R&amp;B," a take on the biblical love story of Ruth and Boaz set in the modern-day American South. It also just acquired "Mary," a biblical epic starring Anthony Hopkins.Netflix has also been taking a page from the "Yellowstone" playbook with an upcoming bull-rider series called "Ragdoll," starring country superstar (and "Yellowstone" actor) Tim McGraw. Also on tap is "American Primeval," a miniseries it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/american-primeval-cast-taylor-kitsch">describes</a> as a "raw, adventurous exploration of the birth of the American West."<h2 id="0f8424da-4da9-47f8-9d19-696de395a53e">Economics fuel a cultural shift</h2>The rightward tilt has a lot to do with fear and economics.Facing big financial pressure, studios and streamers are looking to make entertainment for the most subscribers at the lowest cost possible as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/comcast-split-cable-tv-cnbc-bravo-nbc-peacock-2024-10">cable business wanes</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/streaming-strategy-spend-billions-wrong-netflix-disney-paramount-warner-bros-2023-2">streaming profits have been rare</a>. In this newly conservative greenlighting era, buyers are looking around for sure things and pockets of audiences where there's opportunity.Faith-based and family-oriented shows can be made relatively cheaply, without big-name stars, and have the potential to travel globally. Streamers are all in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-prime-video-preview-shake-up-tv-ad-marketplace-2024-1">ads business now</a>, and advertisers like entertaining, non-polarizing content geared toward everyone in the household.<div type="image" title="Jim Caviezel in a brown shirt" height="675" width="1200" msid="115016606" hostid="261" sizebytes="45878"></div>The studios and streamers have also seen breakout successes of Christian-themed titles. Angel Studios-distributed "The Chosen," a 2017 TV drama about Jesus and his apostles from filmmaker Dallas Jenkins, is considered one of the most successful crowdfunded entertainment projects, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20240124-the-chosen-the-christian-funded-hit-about-jesus-taking-the-us-by-storm">raising nearly $100 million</a>.Angel Studios followed it up with "Sound of Freedom," a 2023 thriller about child trafficking that wasn't about religion per se but was championed by conservatives and churchgoers to become one of the most successful indie films with a $180 million domestic box office. "Jesus Revolution," a 2023 movie by Wonder Project founder Jon Erwin about hippie Christians in California, grossed about $54 million on a $15 million budget.UTA's Barnes said that successes like these have encouraged top Christian filmmakers, who so far have largely operated outside the major studio system, to start talking about making TV series for distribution by major streamers, where the real eyeballs are.Hollywood's shift doesn't surprise historians. For much of TV history, programming was a mass-audience proposition, family-oriented and conservative. Networks, guided by their standards divisions, programmed to reach as many people as possible and avoid turning off advertisers. TV couples slept in separate beds and faith was a big genre (1977's "Jesus of Nazareth" and "Touched by an Angel," which ran from 1994 to 2003, for example).Cable and streaming gradually split those audiences into niches. Now streamers are back to serving everyone in the scramble to survive.Take Netflix. Its growth <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-questions-from-wall-street-growth-ads-future-earnings-2024-10">has slowed</a>, which is forcing it to seek out new audiences at home and abroad while selling ads and cracking down on password sharing, said Robert Thompson, a professor at Syracuse University's Newhouse School of Public Communications and director of its Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture."Conservative, faith-based, family, is not a bad place to look," Thompson said. "There's a big audience that likes faith-based and family programming — it's affirmative and not critical in lots of ways." Not to mention the Bible offers a rich mine of storytelling. "It's a rip-roaring set of good stories — Exodus is one of the most rollicking stories out there."<div type="image" title="Hilary Swank at the Lionsgate's &quot;Ordinary Angels&quot; New York Premiere" height="683" width="1024" msid="115016609" hostid="261" sizebytes="47284"></div>Faith-based can mean overtly Christian, but today's suppliers are also finding a market for premium storytelling that people in Hollywood call faith-adjacent. That's helped them to attract mainstream backing and stars like Hilary Swank, who features in "Ordinary Angels," a 2024 inspirational drama from Kingdom Story Co., a production company specializing in Christian films. The Wonder Project raised $75 million from backers, including Lionsgate, UTA, and horror producer Jason Blum for its faith-centric ambitions. Lionsgate has long had a filmmaking deal with Kingdom Story Co.Still, for all the interest in serving the flyover states, proponents say change has been slow.Studios and streamers want to serve rural America but are reluctant to touch something they consider too religious or conservative. The decision-makers are still largely bicoastal and don't really know the audience or agree on what a "heartland" or a "family" show is. ("Modern Family" may be, but is gothy "Wednesday?")To those in this world, heartland means shows about universal values, neighbors helping neighbors, and offering hope. For others, it may connote far-right conservatism, an association many in Hollywood shun (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/12/yellowstone-tv-series-taylor-sheridan/671897/">See: Taylor Sheridan</a>). "The far right has hijacked Christianity, so what constitutes family-based programming would mean very different things, depending on who you talk to," Thompson said."They know faith and family and 'Yellowstone' is important, But the mandates come and go without a lot of acquisitions," Barnes said of entertainment buyers. "While they understand they need this audience, they don't understand them."Faced with uncertainty, it's easier and safer for studios and streamers to fall back on familiar franchises. "They would much rather make 'Transformers 7' than 'The Blind Side,'" quipped a Hollywood agent who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect relationships with the studios and networks.According to research firm Ampere Analysis, the number of "faith and spirituality" content hours on the major US streamers roughly doubled over the past year, to about 500, but is still under 1% of their total catalog hours.That could change as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-losing-dominance-tv-movies-employment-chart-2024-10">more people leave Los Angeles</a> for states like Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee, which have growing film and TV production hubs."The more people come and see that the big, bad scary heartland and the South are not what they think it is, the friendlier they are to tell the story of these places," Barnes said.

Hollywood goes conservative as an economic shift fuels a turn toward faith and family-based shows

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Many Americans are prioritizing travel despite concerns about the economy.</li><li>Labor Day weekend domestic travel is projected by AAA to be up 9% year over year.</li></ul>Americans are increasingly seeing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/credit-cards/travel-rewards/survey-travel-plans-2024/">travel as a need rather than a want</a>, with many people willing to cut back in other areas — or even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/genz-millennials-going-into-debt-summer-vacation-travel-taylor-swift-2024-6">go into debt</a> — before giving up vacation altogether.Rod Griffin, senior director of public education and advocacy at Experian, said even though many Americans are worried about the economy, they're still traveling."They're just looking for ways to make it more affordable, or at least reduce the costs," he told Business Insider.After a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-gen-z-travel-debt-affirm-klarna-credit-cards-2024-8">booming summer travel season</a>, AAA estimates domestic travel over Labor Day weekend is up 9% from last year, while international travel is down 4%, according to their booking numbers. AAA said the shift is driven in part by inflation, which has made trips abroad 11% more expensive.Griffin said he's spoken to consumers who are paying closer attention to their options when it comes to making travel more affordable and that includes rethinking how to travel domestically, like by taking <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/road-trip-destinations-families-hidden-gems-usa-2024-8">road trips</a>.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/survey-road-trip-expenses/">Experian survey data</a> from May found that 71% of consumers surveyed felt that inflation impacted their road trip plans. The survey respondents included 1,008 insured drivers, who, on average, said they expected to spend more than $1,000 on road trip expenses. Gas, lodging, and food were the expenses respondents expected to spend the most on during their trip.Griffin said there are various ways consumers say they are cutting back on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/road-trip-food-stops-in-every-state">road trip</a> costs, from opting for less expensive hotels to packing lunches rather than stopping for every meal to taking group trips that enable cost splitting.Some Americans are also taking trips that aren't as far away in order to save on gas but still get quality family time in."People are looking at, not a staycation, but a closer to home vacation, as opposed to going cross country" in order to save on fuel and lodging, he said.In some cases, like if you are a couple traveling in an area with higher gas prices, it may even be cheaper to fly rather than drive, so weighing those options is another way to ensure you're opting for the most affordable option.Travel-minded Americans can also focus on the bigger picture of their finances in order to out aside more money for travel, Griffin said. For families who rely on road trips, keeping up with car maintenance can avoid costly and unexpected vacation expenses.Experian said three out of four surveyed consumers said they were worried about car insurance rates increasing, so Griffin said another option is to shop around for lower rates, noting that Experian has an insurance marketplace that can be used."Reduce overall costs that affect that budget in the long term," he said.Americans can also focus on utilizing their credit card points or actively seeking out a credit card that comes with rewards for common <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-consumer-spending-international-travel-entertainment-surge-savings-2024-3">travel expenses.</a>The key thing to saving money on road trips is to plan ahead, Griffin said, and to set a budget and stick with it.

Many Americans say they won't give up travel in tough economic times. Here's how they're saving on road trips.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Harris-Walz campaign is scheduled to announce a proposal for major assistance for first-time homebuyers.</li><li>The campaign is proposing that some first-time homebuyers could get up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance.</li></ul>Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>' economic agenda is set to include a provision for first-time and first-generation home-buyers.Harris is scheduled to announce her policy plans at a Friday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-falsely-claiming-kamala-harris-rally-crowd-is-ai-generated-2024-8">rally</a> in North Carolina, which include a proposal to give some first-time homebuyers up to $25,000 in down payment support, according to a campaign official.The Harris-Walz proposal would provide assistance to working families who have paid their rent on time for at least two years and are looking to buy their first house. First-generation homeowners who fit the bill would be eligible for even more support."Many Americans work hard at their jobs, save, and pay their rent on time month after month. But they can't save enough after paying their rent and other bills to save for a down payment — denying them a shot at owning a home and building wealth," the campaign said in a preview statement obtained by Business Insider.The campaign estimates that the proposal would allow more than one million first-time homebuyers, including first-generation buyers, to purchase a home each year.Former President Donald Trump addressed parts of his housing plan during recent campaign events, promising to open up swaths of federal land for housing construction.Harris is also expected to announce a proposal to end the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-market-buying-a-home-prices-affordability-mortgage-rates-2024-6">housing crisis</a> by building three million new units, offering tax incentives to homebuilders who prioritize "starter homes" intended for first-time homebuyers, and creating a $40 billion innovation fund to encourage local governments to build housing, according to the campaign.The Harris economic agenda also includes assistance for renters, including expanded rental assistance for struggling Americans and the removal of tax benefits for Wall Street investors and corporate landlords, according to the campaign.Several of the Harris housing policies expand on similar plans President Joe Biden's administration sought to achieve in recent years, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-plan-cap-rent-5-percent-annually-corporate-landlords-2024-7">rent caps</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-sotu-housing-affordability-stimulus-buyers-sellers-mortgage-credits-supply-2024-3">assistance for first-time homebuyers</a>.The Friday rally comes at a key moment in the race as Harris picks up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-shift-2024-8">steam in the polls</a>, particularly regarding the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-inflation-polling-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-8">economy</a> — an area in which Democrats have historically struggled.

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