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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shigeru Ishiba is set to be appointed Japan's prime minister on Tuesday.</li><li>On Friday, he narrowly won the presidency of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party.</li></ul>Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense and agriculture minister, is set to become Japan's next prime minister.The 67-year-old narrowly won the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Friday. He will be elected prime minister by the LDP-controlled parliament on Tuesday."Trusting in the people and speaking the truth with courage and sincerity, I will do my utmost to make this nation of Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can once again live with a smile," Ishiba said after the results were announced.Ishiba is a self-professed lone wolf who claims to read three books per day, per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/shigeru-ishiba-outsider-set-lead-japan-2024-09-27/">Reuters</a>. This was his fifth try at getting the top job.His leadership is likely to transform Japan's military alliance with the US, as well as have wider implications for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/this-new-us-missile-system-keeps-upsetting-china-mrc-typon-2024-9">the region's security.</a>According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japans-next-leader-shigeru-ishiba-pushes-to-remake-military-alliance-with-u-s-5da81109?mod=hp_lead_pos3">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Ishiba wants to transform what he believes to be an unbalanced military alliance with Washington.The publication noted that Japan hosts around 55,000 US troops on its territory and bears the majority of the operating costs of these bases.According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Japan has the highest number of permanently stationed US service members in the world.Ishiba has previously called for turning US bases in Japan into joint US-Japanese operations. He also wants some Japanese soldiers to be permanently based in the US, per the AP.Ishiba is a vocal defender of Taiwan's democracy and called for an Asian version of NATO earlier this month, a suggestion the US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rt.com/news/604248-us-asian-nato-japan/">shot down</a>.Speaking to lawmakers before the runoff, he pledged to put the party's "hearts into protecting Japan, local areas, rules, and the people of Japan," per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/27/japan-shigeru-ishiba-prime-minister-liberal-democratic-party">The Guardian</a>.Some of the biggest military threats he will have to contend with include China's increasing assertiveness as well as China's and North Korea's missile tests.On Wednesday, a Japanese destroyer reportedly crossed the Taiwan Strait as a countermeasure to China under the orders of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, officials told Japan's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-warship-sailed-taiwan-strait-first-time-decades-officials-china-2024-9">Yomiuri</a> newspaper.That same day, China carried out its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-icbm-launch-into-pacific-was-first-in-44-years-2024-9">first known test</a> of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean in more than four decades.However, Japan's military is beset by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3270174/japan-military-hiring-hit-low-birth-rate-pay-many-reluctant-give-good-life">recruiting challenges</a> and is experiencing manpower shortages. Japan has also struggled to ramp up its domestic weapons <a target="_blank" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/japan-struggles-to-boost-defense-industry-amid-china-s-military-ambitions/7219689.html">production</a>, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2024/05/27/japan/japan-security-constitution-public-opinion/">public opinion</a> favoring the country's pacifist tradition.The US ambassador to Japan <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/USAmbJapan/status/1839555680220406257 ">posted on X</a> that he was looking forward to strengthening the US-Japan alliance.The yen rose more than 1% against the dollar after the results were announced. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-drifts-risk-sensitive-currencies-lifted-by-china-optimism-2024-09-27/">Reuters</a>, the markets had been expecting the victory of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi.

Japan's new prime minister could try to shake up the country's military pact with the US

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israeli strikes have targeted Hezbollah in Beirut and parts of southern Lebanon.</li><li>Brigitte Chahwan, a German-born woman, has decided to stay in Lebanon despite official advice to go.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on interviews with Brigitte Chahwan, a German-born woman who has lived in Beirut for 30 years. The following has been edited for length and clarity.Each time I get an email or automated call from the German foreign ministry (which has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2670770">repeatedly urged German nationals to leave Lebanon</a>), I think about leaving the country.But, I ask myself: Where would I go? What would I do?I have my life here. It's not easy to just pack up and go somewhere else. I will stay in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-deadly-blitz-hezbollah-lebanon-photos-2024-9">Lebanon</a> as long as it is possible.<h2 id="bfb15537-19ea-4d50-8d0a-6d1be5c7736a">Lebanon is now my home</h2>Although I was born in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprising-things-moving-to-germany-from-us-2024-9">Germany</a>, I've lived in Lebanon for nearly three decades. I first moved here with my ex-husband, and my children were born and raised here.Lebanon is where my apartment is, where my friends are, and even where part of my family is.I love that the people here are warm-hearted and welcoming, and living here has made me a much more open person.Of course, if I were to move back to Germany, I would have friends and my father there, but it would no longer be my home.<h2 id="18c4ab2b-97c6-4ae9-a255-4a55af6a8f84">It's more nerve-racking to be outside the country</h2>I live in an apartment in a coastal town just north of Beirut. It's a beautiful place to live.This morning, I heard Israeli planes overhead, and I've also heard the sounds of distant explosions.When you've lived here for 30 years, and you hear something far away, you can tell right away it's the sound of a bomb.Thank God it was far away.I was here in 2006 during the Israel-Hezbollah war, so I've experienced this sort of thing before.When I think back to then, however, it was a very different story. Israel was bombing infrastructure all over the country, including two bridges near my house.I was lucky because I have a garden apartment but my neighbors upstairs had damaged windows from the explosion.Right now, I feel relatively safe.It's not that I'm not frightened, but you realize that the strikes is still some distance from my home — about 15 to 20 miles away.While what is going on now is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-lebanon-hezbollah-posts-warns-civilians-move-away-2024-9">really big crisis</a> that is life-threatening for many people, especially in the south of Lebanon and parts of Beirut, I still feel good, right now, about being here.In some ways, it's more nerve-racking to be outside the country.<div type="image" title="Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on September 26, 2024." height="2133" width="3200" msid="113823076" hostid="261" sizebytes="318964"></div>Last year, shortly after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-gaza-tour-guides-pivot-october-7-tours-make-money-2024-6">October 7</a>, I started becoming nervous about the situation.I was feeling so scared and concerned that I bought a ticket to Germany.But I didn't feel any better there — I was constantly thinking about my family, my house, my garden, my pet, my friends, my neighbors, and my life in Lebanon.You get more nervous outside than being here and facing the challenges and living it because, outside, you have a million pictures in your head and you don't know what is really happening.It's not an easy life, living in Lebanon, but you have to adapt it. I have.We've faced many internal problems lately — the economic crisis, COVID-19 came, and the blast in 2020.If you're a very anxious person, it's the wrong country for you.<h2 id="82768c10-6033-4154-bc8c-67df1ece5c18">Staying, for now</h2>Now, in this current situation, I will continue to adapt and stay here for as long as I possibly can.Of course, if things get worse, I'll have no choice but to leave.The moment I feel like the situation has become totally uncontrollable, I'll take my luggage and go.If Iran gets involved, for example, then it definitely could very quickly spiral out of control. Then, you don't know what could happen, and it could get really dangerous.That is the point I would leave.Right now, we are walking a very thin line, I know this, but I have to have faith.For myself, I really have to wait until that point.Of course, you don't want to wait until the very last moment and have to be evacuated. Nobody wants this.But nobody knows what exactly the future holds. When I feel like it's getting too intense, I'll need to find a way out.But we all hope that it doesn't come to that.

I'm an expat living in Lebanon. I've struggled over whether to leave, but I won't because I love this country.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Finland has pledged to ban most Russians from buying property in the country.</li><li>It comes after a deterioration in relations between the countries, which share a long border.</li></ul>Finland is proposing to ban most Russian nationals from buying property there as the two countries' relations continue to deteriorate since the invasion of Ukraine.Though the new policy does not name Russia specifically, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen told a press conference it would apply to citizens of countries that violate the "territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of another state and could threaten Finland's security."On Monday, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen told reporters that it was in response to Russia's "war of aggression." He also said Finland was already monitoring around 3,500 Finnish properties linked to Russian owners.Relations between Finland and Russia, which share an 830-mile border, have declined markedly since the latter invaded Ukraine in 2022. Finland remained unaligned for decades but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-clears-last-hurdle-to-join-nato-nightmare-for-putin-2023-3">joined NATO as a full member in April 2023</a>.In 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-putin-wanted-finlandization-of-nato-but-got-nato-ization-of-finland-2022-6">President Joe Biden commented</a> that Russia hoped the invasion of Ukraine would mean the "Finlandization of NATO," but it had instead meant the "NATO-ization of Finland."The word "Finlandization" comes from Finland's position of being unaligned during the Cold War and refers to a small country being neutral on the actions of a larger neighbor for fear of retaliation.At the press conference, Häkkänen added that the government expects to submit a draft law to parliament by the end of the year.Dual citizens or Russians who are permanently resident in EU countries would not be affected, he said.A Finnish Ministry of Defence representative told BI that the proposal is focused "solely on future acquisitions."The move comes after Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/finland-prime-minister-petteri-orpo-sees-risks-in-russian-property-holdings">told Bloomberg</a> that it was a "potential security threat" for properties near critical infrastructure to be owned by Russians.Finland has also enacted legislation in 2020 permitting the government to block real-estate transactions on national security grounds.In 2022, the country's defense ministry stopped three Russian nationals from buying a former nursing home near an army site,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20009913"> Finnish national broadcaster Yle reported</a>.In July this year, Finland passed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-vote-turning-back-migrants-crossing-russia-2024-07-12/">a temporary law allowing border guards to block migrants trying to cross from Russia</a>. It accused Russia of deliberately sending large groups of asylum seekers over the border, something Russia denies.

Finland has pledged to ban Russians from buying property in the country on security grounds

Top 10 budget-friendly countries for a winter getaway

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Massive protests have erupted in Israel over the government's failure to secure a hostage deal.</li><li>Public outrage followed the discovery of six hostages' bodies in Gaza over the weekend.</li></ul>Nearly 11 months have passed since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-gaza-tour-guides-pivot-october-7-tours-make-money-2024-6">October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks</a> on Israel that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-goal-october-7-attack-israel-gaza-war-2023-11">killed over 1,000 people</a> and resulted in 251 hostages being seized, triggering a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-aid-to-israel-since-october-7-gaza-bombs-2024-6">brutal retaliation against Gaza</a> that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.Now, public sentiment in Israel appears to have reached a breaking point, with strikes across the country."It's a mix of grief and anger," Niv Keidar, who helped to block a major intercity highway in Tel Aviv on Sunday night, told Business Insider.He said the mood had resulted in hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets all over Israel and making the demand: "There must be a deal that will bring back alive those people that are still possible to rescue."Sunday night saw the largest protests in Israel since the Hamas terror attacks, with many Israelis expressing anger at Prime Minister <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-netanyahu-israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-plan-2024-6">Benjamin Netanyahu's government for failing to secure a hostage-ceasefire deal.</a>According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/masses-protest-across-israel-in-flood-of-grief-anger-after-hamas-executes-6-hostages/">The Times of Israel</a>, some 280,000 gathered in Tel Aviv overnight. Large protests also took place in Jerusalem and Ra'anana.On Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces found <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-recovers-bodies-6-hostages-gaza-us-citizen-2024-9">the bodies of six hostages</a> in an underground tunnel in Gaza.Israel said an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/autopsy-finds-6-hostages-shot-multiple-times-at-close-range-in-last-48-72-hours/">autopsy showed that the hostages had been shot</a> at close range.A group representing the hostages' families criticized Netanyahu's government, claiming the hostages could still be alive if a deal had been reached.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/BringThemHome23/status/1830101720564658246?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1830101720564658246%7Ctwgr%5E91de83589ee8427249492a812119138820872494%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fliveblog_entry%2Fhostage-families-say-hostages-would-still-be-alive-if-it-werent-for-the-saboteurs-the-excuses-and-the-spin%2F">a post on X </a>on Sunday, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said Netanyahu's government has failed to do what a government is expected to do — "return its sons and daughters home.""Netanyahu: Enough the excuses," it continued. "Enough with the spin. Enough of the procrastination! It is time to return our abductees home."The group called for a nationwide protest to demand the release of the remaining hostages — around 100 are believed to still be in Gaza, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/09/01/nx-s1-5097272/the-family-of-an-american-hostage-still-being-held-captive-by-hamas-speaks-out#:~:text=Around%20100%20hostages%20are%20still,now%20by%20Jonathan%20Dekel%2DChen.">according to Israeli authorities</a>, although it is unclear how many are alive.On Sunday, Israeli protesters blocked major roads and highways, while the country's largest labor union, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://img.mako.co.il/2024/09/01/histadrut040902.pdf?Partner=interlink">Histadrut</a>, called for a general strike.Arnon Bar-David, the head of Histadrut, which represents hundreds of thousands of workers, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/histadrut-labor-union-announces-nationwide-strike-over-failure-to-release-hostages/">said</a>: "We are getting body bags instead of a deal."The strike caused disruption to banks, schools, and transportation, and temporarily closed Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport on Monday.Hospitals were also functioning at a reduced capacity.Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 but later released, and whose relative <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://img.mako.co.il/2024/09/01/histadrut040902.pdf?Partner=interlink">Carmel Gat</a> was found among the six bodies recovered by the IDF, participated in the protests.He told Business Insider he feels angry and concerned."We always need to remember that this anger is toward <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/open-criticism-hamas-building-gaza-israeli-offensive-continues-2024-7">Hamas</a> and their brutal tactics," he said.But he added: "Hamas is not our government, they're not accountable to us, and the people who are accountable to us should not be so disattached from the Israeli people, public opinion, and the world opinion that calls for a long time to prioritize human lives and the hostages."He said that Netanyahu and his cabinet were "prioritizing themselves and different military tactics and sacrificing civilians for this."

Israelis are fed up. After a night of protests, the country is going on strike, demanding a Gaza deal.

For God, for country, for rain

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Putin will visit Mongolia next week despite an ICC arrest warrant out in his name.</li><li>The International Criminal Court issued it last year over the deportation of Ukrainian children.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit Mongolia next week for the first time in a decade.The Kremlin <a target="_blank" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74957">said</a> the visit is at the invitation of Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh "to participate in the ceremonial events dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the joint victory of the Soviet and Mongolian armed forces over the Japanese militarists on the Khalkhin Gol River."It's seen as a strategic visit for the longtime allies, but there is one small problem: In March 2023, the International Criminal Court, or ICC, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/icc-cements-putin-pariah-arrest-warrant-russia-war-crimes-ukraine-2023-3">put out a warrant</a> for Putin's arrest on charges of the unlawful deportation and transfer of children during the ongoing war in Ukraine.As a signatory of the Rome Statute — the founding treaty of the ICC — Mongolia is required to detain individuals on their soil if they have an arrest warrant out in their name. (Russia also signed the Rome Statute in 2000, but withdrew its signature in 2016 and never became a member of the ICC.)This is Putin's first visit to an ICC member country since the warrant was issued.So what will Mongolia do?"Mongolia is never going to arrest him, of course," said Talita Dias, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict.Dias said that although Mongolia is obligated to arrest Putin, there will probably be no major consequences if it doesn't.Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow has "no worries" about the upcoming trip. "We have a wonderful dialogue with our friends from Mongolia," he said.As a judicial institution, the ICC does not have its own police force or enforcement body for its judgments. "It's very difficult to operate in this space of states without enforcement power," Dias said.In a similar case, South Africa was censured by the ICC for <a target="_blank" href="https://asp.icc-cpi.int/non-cooperation">failing to arrest</a> Sudan's then-president, Omar al-Bashir, in 2015.Dias told BI that in that instance, since Sudan was a non-member state, the UN Security Council got involved, which escalated the situation.In Putin's case, it's also the first time the court issued a warrant against the leader of one of the UN Security Council's five permanent members.Dias said that with Russia a permanent Security Council member, it's unlikely there will be far-reaching consequences for either country in the event of a failure to comply with the warrant."There will be legal proceedings, probably at the ICC," she said, adding: "There would be a finding that Mongolia has breached the Rome Statute. Maybe some countries will sanction Mongolia for that, and then that's it.""I'm curious to see what will happen," she told BI.Hungary and Armenia have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-ally-hungary-says-wouldnt-arrest-putin-icc-warrant-2023-3">previously assured Putin</a> that he would not be arrested on their soil despite being ICC members.Russian and Mongolian government representatives did not immediately respond to BI's request for comment.

Putin is visiting Mongolia — a country that's supposed to arrest him when he lands. But it probably won't, an expert says. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine's success with Bradley vehicles has led to a new "legend" around it, a warfare expert said.</li><li>He said its wins are partly down to Ukraine having enough of them, while other gear is drip-fed.</li></ul>The success Ukraine has seen using old American Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles against Russia shows what Ukraine can do when it is given enough of the weapons it needs, a warfare expert told Business Insider.The US has given Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-inside-ukraine-us-bradley-fighting-vehicles-troops-alive-russia-2023-9">more than 300 Bradleys</a>, significantly more than some other armored combat vehicles, like the Abrams tanks; the US only sent Ukraine 31 of those.Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear forces, said that the numbers available have given Ukraine the ability to use its Bradleys far more effectively than the tanks."They've got a lot of them," Hamish said of the Bradleys. "And if they had a lot of Abrams and a lot of Challengers, they would use them differently."<div type="image" title="A US-provided M1A1 Abrams tank at an undisclosed location in Ukraine." height="853" width="1280" msid="112804063" hostid="261" sizebytes="49276"></div>The way Ukraine's Western partners have supplied weapons, often in small numbers and after significant delays, has come with heavy criticism throughout the war.Having enough of a weapon is important for militaries as it allows them to use those weapons more flexibly. It means being able to put the weapons in risky situations where they could achieve big breakthroughs, and if any are lost, it's not a major tactical and PR disaster.With the US-provided Bradleys that Ukraine is using, "because they've got a lot of them, they can afford to lose a few. When you've only got 14 Challenger 2s, you can't really afford to lose many," de Bretton-Gordon said. "So I think that is key."He said that it's a lesson for the West, where a belief grew that fewer, very technical pieces of kit would beat a larger number of weaker pieces. "We're now realizing that you sort of need a balance," he said.Bradleys were built as a response to the Soviet infantry fighting vehicles and first entered service in the 1980s. They are not the most advanced armored vehicles available, but they are versatile and highly capable. And Ukraine's successes in battle with this vehicle have resulted in a "Bradley legend," de Bretton-Gordon said."So when you look at the Bradleys, it's their mass and the way that they're used, which is why they're so successful," he said. In Ukraine, Bradleys have fought against infantry in bunkers, troop carriers, drones, and even top tanks.<div type="image" title="A US-provided Bradley infantry fighting vehicle driving in deep mud surrounded by dead trees in Ukraine." height="3369" width="5054" msid="112804067" hostid="261" sizebytes="1611438"></div>He said he thinks "the Bradley legend is very, very good for the Ukrainians," adding that "it stiffens the resolve of the Ukrainians, and no doubt it's also it's added fear to the Russians."<h2 id="0fcf9531-dd05-432f-bb4c-58369c569080">'Drip feeding' Ukraine</h2>Many warfare experts, soldiers, and even some allied governments have criticized the way many of Ukraine's partners give it aid. Weapons often <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-veteran-in-ukraine-says-ammo-desperately-needed-not-tanks-2024-3">arrive after months of debate</a> (during which Russia can prepare), in small numbers, and in packages that don't give Ukraine a clear picture or certainty on future deliveries."The drip feeding of kit to Ukraine," de Bretton-Gordon said, means "they've been fighting with one hand behind their back."An American soldier fighting in Ukraine told BI earlier this year that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-veteran-in-ukraine-says-ammo-desperately-needed-not-tanks-2024-3">Western aid arrives in "tidbits" and after lengthy debates</a>, with different levels of support arriving in different packages.He said that "it feels like everything that we've been getting has been either too late or just enough to barely hold on. It feels like whenever they donate things, it's kind of just enough to keep Ukraine standing but without thought of the long term."That means Ukraine's soldiers often can't develop long-term strategies, he said, adding his belief that Ukraine would be in a better place without this issue.<div type="image" title="Two Ukrainian soldiers of the 42th Brigade in training in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast" height="3045" width="4567" msid="112804064" hostid="261" sizebytes="705766"></div>De Bretton-Gordon said that when it comes to weapons like Western tanks, "had we not waited a year and given them tanks straight away, and had we given them hundreds of tanks, not a hundred, of course it would make a huge difference.""And I think the frustrating thing is there are thousands of Western tanks sitting in tank sheds rusting across Europe, be they American German or whatever," he said.The larger number of Bradleys available to them has given the Ukrainians more to work with in varied operations and the ability to lose them. According to the Oryx open-source tracker, Ukraine has lost at least 90 of these vehicles. It's unclear if any of those were recovered and repaired. Ukraine still has to be smart with them, and it has been, but it has the option to take some risks.The numbers just aren't there for other weapons like the Abrams, which even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said came in insufficient numbers to make a substantial difference.<h2 id="feacd17d-445c-4406-9b01-3fabf247978b">Bradleys are excelling</h2>Bradleys have thus, at times, proven to be more useful than Abrams tanks, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bradley-fighting-vehicles-prove-worth-ukraine-short-on-abrams-tanks-2024-7">BI previously reported</a>, with warfare experts noting that their light frames make them particularly well-suited to the style of warfare seen in Russia's invasion.Despite having lighter armor, they have been effective against Russian tanks. Experts previously told BI that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-unorthodox-ways-russia-war-putin-2024-6">Ukraine has been good at adapting with the vehicles</a> to the needs of this war.<div type="image" title="Soldiers on an M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in a barren field." height="2456" width="3684" msid="112804066" hostid="261" sizebytes="376836"></div>Nicholas Drummond, a former British Army officer who now works as a land warfare analyst, told BI they are effective because they are lighter than tanks and can go places those tanks struggle to go, and they have a flexible cannon with a high-rate of fire that can provide fire support and immobilize tank sensors.De Bretton-Gordon described them as "a really good piece of kit because it's reliable, it's easy to use, it moves around quickly, and it is fairly well protected."As a result of their successes in Ukraine, they are seen as better weapons than they were before this war, he said, with people talking about it "in very positive terms, which I wouldn't have done four or five years ago.""When I was a tank commander in the first Gulf War, there were Bradleys around, and we didn't think that they were that great then," he said, but now, "they're creating a bit of a legend."De Bretton-Gordon said that Ukraine's Bradley wins against Russian tanks came because it has "worked out the real vulnerabilities of Russian tanks." Ukraine has surprisingly used Bradleys "to actually hunt down tanks as well," he noted.He said there have been moments when "two or three Bradleys are attacking a T-90 or a T-80"—some of Russia's most advanced tanks. A video earlier this year showed <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-us-bradley-fighting-vehicle-hammers-russian-t-90m-tank-2024-1">two Bradleys hitting a T-90M</a> before its crew abandoned the tank. A drone appeared to finish it off.De Bretton-Gordon said that Ukraine has exploited the weaknesses that exist in many Russian tanks. On these tanks, the places where the turret meets the hull "are very vulnerable because there's virtually no armor there."Hence, even if Bradleys have small rounds compared to what a tank can fire, "if you fire enough of those at the right place, it can take out a tank."And, again, having more Bradleys to use means Ukraine can be extra effective."And, of course, if you've got two or three Bradleys firing at one T-90 — and the Russians haven't been very clever the way they've used their tanks — that overwhelming firepower means that they're taking these T-90s out and the Bradley is sort of becoming a bit of a mythological beast."

Old US Bradleys becoming 'legend' in Ukraine shows what the country can do when it gets enough of the weapons it needs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia launched a $1.3 billion air assault on Ukraine this week.</li><li>The attack used hundreds of UAVs and missiles, including Shahed strike drones and ballistic missiles.</li></ul>On August 26, Russia launched a massive air assault on Ukraine, deploying an array of missiles and drones that cost an estimated total of $1.26 billion, according to calculations by the Ukrainian outlet <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/26/718502/">Ekonomichna Pravda</a> (EP).The Ukrainian air force said on Telegram that it had detected 127 missiles and 109 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the attack, which it said targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. It added that it had shot down 102 of the missiles and 99 of the UAVs.The munitions used included Kinzhal and Iskander ballistic missiles, Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles, and Shahed strike drones, the air force said.It added that Russia fired 77 Kh-101 missiles, which at an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/alert/defeating-the-kh-101/">estimated cost of $10 million to $13 million each</a>, accounted for the bulk of the expenditure.According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project, the Kh-101 is a "stealthy missile" with a conventional warhead that is designed to "defeat air defense systems by flying at low, terrain-hugging altitudes to avoid radar systems."The attack on Ukraine came amid <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economic-growth-slowed-q2-amid-concerns-of-overheating-2024-8">soaring inflation and warnings of an overheating economy in Russia</a>.While heavy Russian defense spending on the war in Ukraine initially stimulated economic growth and quelled fears of a pending recession linked to Western sanctions, it has now led to rampant inflation, which hit 9.1% in July.Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 18% in July, saying inflation had "accelerated" and was "developing significantly" above its April forecast.Russia's economic growth slowed to 4% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.4% in Q1, AFP reported in August, citing official data.Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told BI that Putin was willing to put the entire Russian economy behind this war and that there were no signs of that changing. "There's no real pushback to it within the Russian elite, so that's not going to change."But Hess said that with this scale of spending, Russia would eventually have to make significant budget reallocations or cuts in other areas because inflation was "getting out of control."

Russia may have spent $1.3 billion on an aerial attack as inflation continues to soar in the country on the back of huge state defense spending

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korean troops in Russia help Putin beyond sheer manpower needs — they help him at home, too.</li><li>The ISW wrote on Sunday that Pyongyang's deployments help Putin avoid another mobilization, for now.</li></ul>North Korea's manpower injection for the Kremlin allows Russian leader Vladimir Putin to avoid another political stumbling block at home, according to the Institute for the Study of War.The Washington-based think tank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-17-2024">said on Sunday</a> that the influx of fresh troops gives Putin a way to, at least temporarily, avoid a second involuntary mobilization.Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-prosecutor-says-putin-troop-mobilization-thousands-illegal-2023-2">first mobilization</a> of some 300,000 reservists was announced in November 2022, a move that tanked public opinion of the war as families of drafted soldiers fretted that they would be sent into combat and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mobilization-some-drafted-dead-less-than-month-2022-10">casualties among reservists mounted.</a>"ISW has repeatedly observed efforts by Russian authorities to delay highly unpopular involuntary reserve call-ups," ISW analysts wrote.Putin and his generals have since repeatedly signaled a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-mobilize-500k-soldiers-as-putin-regime-risks-collapsing-says-kyiv-2023-1">need for another call-up</a> but have held off on a second mobilization wave in favor of an aggressive recruitment drive. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">Steeply rising bonuses</a> in some areas indicate, however, that the Kremlin may be having difficulty attracting enough sign-ups.Pyongyang's contributions now give Russia a healthy buffer, as Western officials estimate that Moscow has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-1500-average-casualties-a-day-october-uk-official-2024-11">losing thousands of men a week</a> this fall in a grinding advance on the eastern front.But the ISW said that if Russia continues to take high casualties, even Pyongyang's troop rotations won't be enough to sustain the invasion."The deployment of roughly 100,000 North Korean personnel would only replace Russian losses for less than three months," the think-tank wrote."Such a limited deployment would also fail to address Russia's broader shortages of millions of workers due to demographic crises and the war and the resulting mid- to long-term shortcomings in Russian defense industrial base operations," it added.Ukraine and Western officials said last week that Pyongyang has sent up to 11,000 troops to Kursk as Russia attempts to reclaim territory taken by Kyiv this summer.Anonymous sources familiar with the assessments of some G20 nations told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-17/north-korea-may-end-up-sending-putin-100-000-troops-for-his-war">Bloomberg</a> that it's likely North Korea is planning to send a total of 100,000 troops in the longer run.Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, also told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voakorea.com/a/7865608.html">Voice of America</a> that Pyongyang would likely maintain a presence of about 15,000 troops in the war, rotating soldiers every two to three months.In total, that could mean 100,000 North Korean troops cycling in and out of combat within a year, he said.The North Korean troops in Russia are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-storm-corps-kim-jong-un-best-russia-ukraine-2024-11">believed to be special forces</a>, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mnd.go.kr/user/mnd/upload/pblictn/PBLICTNEBOOK_202303070948276600.pdf">South Korean intelligence estimates</a> say consist of about 200,000 members in total.Seoul also says that Russia is paying about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-soldiers-wont-get-2k-pay-russia-ukraine-war-2024-11">$2,000 a month</a> for each North Korean soldier. But defectors and North Korea researchers say it's highly likely that most, if not all, of the money will go to Kim Jong Un and his family.Russia's partnership with North Korea has other implications for Pyongyang. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20241103050116">South Korea's intelligence agency</a> said Kim is expected to receive some 700,000 tons of rice and assistance with space technology, allowing his country to further circumvent international sanctions aimed at stalling its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-was-helping-north-korea-before-botched-satellite-launch-report-2024-5">weapons and satellite programs.</a>

Putin paying for 100,000 North Korean troops helps him delay a second mobilization: ISW

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia could offer support to the Iran-backed Houthis as they menace key shipping lanes.</li><li>A senior US State Department official said Moscow is engaging with the rebels at a "serious level."</li></ul>Russia could decide to help the Houthis with their Red Sea attacks and is engaging with the Iran-backed rebels at a "serious level," a senior US State Department official said.The Houthis have long received <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-battles-best-iranian-tech-red-sea-admiral-2024-10">extensive support from Iran</a>, including weapons and training, which the rebels have relied on over the past year to carry out attacks on military and civilian vessels transiting key Middle Eastern shipping lanes.But the State Department has grown increasingly concerned in recent months that the Houthis could be receiving assistance from another country: Russia, US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking told Business Insider in a recent interview."It does seem as though there is a fairly serious level of engagement happening," Lenderking said of the Houthis and Russia. "We are particularly concerned about the kind of equipment that would really enable the Houthis to be more accurate in their targeting of US and other ships in the region — that would enhance the Houthi capability to strike those targets."<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin exits his limousine as he arrives at Red Square in Moscow earlier this month." height="3456" width="5184" msid="115428314" hostid="261" sizebytes="326430"></div>Lenderking said the US has discussed the situation at "high levels" with Saudi Arabia, a partner nation that fought the Houthis for years, and with Russia as well. The relationship between Washington and Moscow has been fraught with tension since the latter invaded Ukraine in February 2022.The US has also made efforts to convey messages to the Houthis. Lenderking said that the Yemeni rebels appear to be determined to strike the American and European warships that have spent the past year <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photo-nato-warship-destroys-drone-boat-red-sea-rescue-mission-2024-8">defending merchant shipping</a> from their relentless attacks."The fact that the Russians might assist in this effort is diabolical," Lenderking said. "It's a very strong concern."The full scope of Russian support for the Houthis is unclear. Some Western media reports suggest that Moscow has already provided the rebels with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-provided-targeting-data-for-houthi-assault-on-global-shipping-eabc2c2b">targeting data</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/russia-houthis-weapons.html">small arms</a> and was considering supplying them with missiles — a development that could significantly escalate the conflict.The Houthis are known to have received help from outside of Yemen. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-got-help-from-iran-others-for-dangerous-weapons-un-2024-11">recent United Nations report</a> found that the rebels have been getting weapons, training, technical assistance, and financial support from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and armed Iraqi groups.<div type="image" title="Newly affiliated Houthi fighters shout slogans while attending a demonstration against Israel and in solidarity with Palestinians in Yemen in October." height="3651" width="5476" msid="115428315" hostid="261" sizebytes="1188336"></div>Russia and Iran have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-russian-cargo-ship-transported-iranian-ballistic-missiles-2024-9">increased their military ties</a> since the start of the Ukraine war. Tehran has provided Moscow with lethal aid, including missiles and drones similar to what it has given the Houthis in previous years. Both countries have been isolated on the world stage over their malign actions and involvement in Ukraine.The Houthis have used their arsenal of missiles and drones over the past year to tirelessly carry out attacks on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-difficult-mission-save-stricken-red-sea-tanker-2024-9">military and civilian vessels</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a campaign that the rebels claim is connected to the Israel-Hamas war.American forces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-weapons-expenditure-cost-middle-east-conflicts-2024-10">operating in the region</a> in defense of the merchant shipping lanes are frequently tasked with intercepting Houthi threats. Just last week, for instance, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-destroyers-unscathed-after-missile-exploding-drone-houthi-attack-2024-11">two US Navy destroyers</a> had to fend off a complex missile and drone attack.The US also routinely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/f-35-variants-seen-combat-after-fighter-struck-houthis-2024-11">carries out airstrikes in Yemen</a>, targeting rebel missile systems, weapons storage facilities, and other sensitive sites in an effort to curb their ability to carry out the attacks.Lenderking said that the Houthis still "maintain the ability to launch pretty aggressively at passing ships," but the US is committed to keeping shipping lanes open in the Red Sea.

Russia's engagement with the Houthis as they lob missiles at ships is getting 'serious,' US official says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hezbollah took a heavy toll on Israeli armor the last time they fought on the ground in Lebanon.</li><li>Its fighters wield even more advanced anti-tank weapons and know how to exploit the hilly terrain.</li></ul>In a recent warning to Israel, Hezbollah's leader said his Iran-backed militia group would destroy all of Israel's tanks if it launches a ground invasion in southern Lebanon to try to stop its barrage of northern Israel. That's not an empty threat.Hezbollah took a heavy toll on Israeli armor the last time they fought on the ground in Lebanon and have since acquired a larger arsenal of more advanced anti-tank guided missiles."If your tanks come to southern Lebanon, you will not suffer a shortage of tanks, because you will have no tanks left," Hezbollah's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-threatens-to-fire-rockets-at-israeli-areas-not-yet-targeted-by-hezbollah/">warned Israel</a> on July 17.Israel has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-16/ty-article/.premium/idf-tells-high-court-many-tanks-damaged-in-the-war-there-is-ashortage-in-ammunition/00000190-bb29-de8b-adfc-bb298b860000">tank shortage</a> from the nine-month Gaza war that may complicate preparations for a ground offensive into mountainous southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah fighters have readied to ambush them with mines and guided missiles as they pass through steep-sided valleys."Hezbollah has put considerable energy into developing a 'kill team' approach of using small, highly mobile groups of fighters that can deploy quickly to confront and attack Israeli armor in southern Lebanon," Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider. "The hilly terrain in Hezbollah's home turf in southern Lebanon favors defenders and Hezbollah has developed innovative uses for the Kornet anti-tank missiles to strike at Israel's heavily armored Merkava tanks."Hezbollah has engaged Israel in border skirmishes since the day after Hamas's 10/7 terror attacks that have forced thousands of civilians from their homes on both sides of the border, with growing fears these increasingly deadly clashes could ignite an all-out war. On Thursday, Hezbollah <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-targeted-israeli-tank-army-positions-near-lebanese-border/3279149">claimed</a> its forces targeted an Israeli Merkava main battle tank near the Lebanese border in one of these exchanges of fire.Hezbollah has improved its anti-tank capabilities since its 2006 war with Israel and is likely to use the favorable terrain to threaten even the most advanced Israeli tanks and armored vehicles.Towards the end of their 34-day war in 2006, the Israeli Army sent tanks into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters armed with Russian-made 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles ambushed several. For example, of the 24 Israeli tanks deployed in the Battle of Wadi Saluki, also known as the Battle of Wadi Hujeir, Hezbollah <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jpost.com/israel/wadi-saluki-battle-microcosm-of-wars-mistakes">anti-tank missiles</a> hit 11."Out of the 400 tanks involved in the fighting in southern Lebanon, 48 were hit, 40 were damaged, and 20 penetrated. It is believed that five Merkavas were completely destroyed," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf">noted a 2008 military analysis of that war</a>."Clearly, Hezbollah has mastered the art of light infantry-ATGM [anti-tank guided missile] tactics against heavy mechanized forces," it added. "Hezbollah also deserves high marks for its innovative use of sophisticated ambushes and the clever use of both direct and indirect fires."<div type="image" title="Israeli tanks suffered losses to Hezbollah during their 2006 war in Lebanon." height="665" width="1024" msid="111969329" hostid="261" sizebytes="79430"></div>Israeli armor has improved since 2006 with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/war-no-other-israel-vs-hezbollah-2015">introduction of upgraded Merkava main battle tanks</a> and the heavily armored Namer troop carrier based on the Merkava chassis. Many of these vehicles also have the sophisticated Trophy active protection system that tracks and counter-fires at incoming projectiles.While Israeli armor losses in Gaza are difficult to accurately gauge, they are likely substantially less than previous conflicts the Israeli military has fought since 1982, the year it launched a large-scale invasion of Lebanon."In 1982, Israel faced foes with similar equipment, like the Syrian army and various Lebanese factions, that also had their own main battle tanks, heavy weapons, and air forces," Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told BI. "Hamas had little of that — and certainly no armored vehicles.""Hezbollah, too, has no conventional heavy weapons besides its limited artillery and rocket supplies."If Israel decides to go to war with Hezbollah, it will have no choice but to send tanks over its northern border into Lebanon, according to Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the 2011 book Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel."The 2006 war demonstrated that air power alone is insufficient to neutralize Hezbollah. But the Israelis cannot get away from the fact that South Lebanon is not tank country," Blanford told BI."The main lines of communication run from west to east, which is not helpful for an invading force wanting to move north," Blanford said."Furthermore, the northbound routes tend to run through steep valleys, which makes armor particularly vulnerable to ambush by anti-tank missiles, IEDs, and belly charges as we saw in Wadi Hujeir at the end of the 2006 war."Any cross-border incursion by Israeli armor would undoubtedly have cover and protection from accompanying infantry, artillery, aircraft, and drones. However, some of these forces could also find themselves <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-air-force-has-to-think-twice-about-hezbollah-2024-5">exposed</a> to Hezbollah's large missile arsenal, which include surface-to-air missiles."The IDF will likely focus not just on force but also on material protection because of these threats, however, as losing tanks to Hezbollah will constitute a political problem for a campaign there," RANE's Bohl said. "Therefore, the IDF isn't likely to carry out a massed assault against Hezbollah, but rather narrow ground incursions that would limit the amount of Israeli armor that could be struck by Hezbollah.""The last thing the IDF wants is to give Hezbollah a target-rich environment."Most of Hezbollah's new anti-armor capabilities come from Iran, including the Almas anti-tank missile it has used in recent clashes, which Iran reverse-engineered from Israeli Spike ATGMs captured by Hezbollah in the 2006 war."They certainly have acquired new systems since 2006, as we have seen in the current conflict. The Almas being one," Blanford said.The group also possesses extended-range AT-14 Spriggans, the NATO reporting name for the laser-guided Kornet that has a six-mile range, and an Iranian reverse-engineered version of that Russian ATGM."They have also developed the Tharallah system, which has two AT-14 launchers side by side which fire two missiles in quick succession," Blanford said. "The idea is that the first missile is taken out by an Israeli tank's Trophy defense system, but (that active protection system) doesn't have time to counter the second missile.Armed with these weapons, Hezbollah's "kill team" approach outlined by Heras could prove deadly for Israeli armored units in a future war."Hezbollah's introduction of the Almas system provides it with a ranged strike capability against Israeli armor, which can allow the organization to have multiple kill teams to engage against the IDF in the battlespace, both from range and in close combat," Heras said."Despite its ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities that it can bring to bear in the battlespace in southern Lebanon, it is highly likely that the IDF would suffer significant casualties in conflict with Hezbollah."

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