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<keyword id="22215344" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="German-businesses" source="keywords">German businesses</keyword> see <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> as a very "stable place" to <keyword id="19954634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="invest" source="keywords">invest</keyword>, said the country's Ambassador <keyword id="20424857" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="philipp-ackermann" source="keywords">Philipp Ackermann</keyword> on Friday, while anticipating increased German <keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">investment</keyword> in India after the India-EU Free <keyword id="19900989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade" source="keywords">Trade</keyword> Agreement resolves tax and tariff "impediments". In an interview with ANI, Ackermann also informed about the possible visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in October this year, during which <keyword id="20766370" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="business-relations" source="keywords">business relations</keyword> and trade relations would be on the agenda. Ackerman noted that migration will also be a key item for discussion. Speaking on the sidelines of the release of the German India Business Outlook 2024 survey, Ackerman said, "The survey has given us an impression that <keyword id="22215345" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="german-business-in-india" source="Orion">German business in India</keyword> is extremely bullish on India. The surveys found that almost 80% of German businesses want to expand their businesses, want to reinvest, build up more factories, and invest more in India." "The German businesses see enormous potential in the Indian market. It sees the very impressive growth rates of India. That makes them very happy. After elections again, they find it a very stable place to invest," the ambassador expressed. Philipp Ackermann termed the long-pending India-EU Free Trade Agreement a "game changer". He mentioned that no specific deadline has been set for signing the Free Trade Agreement, stating that "it will take some time." "There is no deadline because the <keyword id="20000557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FTA" source="keywords">FTA</keyword> relationship is very complicated and it has to take time. We have now seen the ninth round, if I'm not mistaken, which just finished a day or two ago. We are in the process of negotiating the German government is very much behind this," he said "We feel that the FTA is very important for our business; it will be even more so if it is a game changer. So I'm very hopeful that at some stage we come to a conclusion, but don't ask me about the timeline. I think it will take some time," he added. When asked what impact the FTA will have on the Indo-German trade relationship, the envoy said that tariffs and taxes are one of the reasons German companies say might impede investment, and with an FTA, the tariff side will be solved. "For many German companies, an FTA will bring a clear solution and regulation on tariffs and trade and it would be a great gift for their business," he added. The proposed trade deal with the EU is one of the most complex FTAs being negotiated by India. There has been no breakthrough despite several rounds of talks. On June 17, 2022, the European Union relaunched negotiations with India for a Free Trade Agreement, and launched separate negotiations for an Investment Protection Agreement and an Agreement on Geographical Indications (GIs). The mandator also gave details about the possible visit of German chancellor Olaf Scholz, saying the chancellor will travel to Delhi and parts of his cabinet, including the German ministers, will accompany him and sit down with their Indian counterparts to develop coming programmes and projects and the roadmap. "So we expect that to happen in the second half of October sometime. The dates have not been finalised yet. But it is a very, very good moment to sit down, compare notes, and say, Where is this apprenticeship going?" he added. "We will try to develop the future of this partnership during these consultations. Other items on the agenda are certainly business relations and trade relations, but also migration, which is a very interesting issue within and certainly does politics as usual," he said.

German businesses see India as a stable place to invest, says German ambassador Philipp Ackermann

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! The fast-moving, big business of weight-loss drugs is already shifting to its next stage. Here's a rundown of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upcoming-glp1-weight-loss-drugs-to-watch-2024-11">five upcoming pills and injections</a> to keep an eye on.In today's big story, Microsoft's massive bet on AI with Copilot <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-artificial-intelligence-bet-doubts-marc-benioff-satya-nadella-2024-11">has yet to live up to the hype</a>, potentially raising alarms for everyone else investing in the space.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: You can still bet on politics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-political-prediction-bets-trump-2028-nominees-election-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">even though the election is over</a>.</li><li>Tech: Why the Trump-Musk relationship is unlike anything <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11">we've ever seen in US politics</a>.</li><li>Business: Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, but <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spirit-airlines-chapter-11-bankruptcy-restructure-low-cost-airlines-2024-11">tells customers it'll keep flying</a>.</li></ul>But first, is this thing even worth it?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">A Copilot conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Microsoft logo glitching" height="1000" width="1334" msid="115423174" hostid="261" sizebytes="160900"></div>Microsoft's challenges with its flagship AI product could be another red flag for an industry with high hopes for the tech.Business Insider's Ashley Stewart, our resident Microsoft expert, has a deep dive on Copilot <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-artificial-intelligence-bet-doubts-marc-benioff-satya-nadella-2024-11">coming up short on the big expectations laid out for it</a> when it launched over a year ago.CEO Satya Nadella didn't hold back initially, describing Copilot as something that would "fundamentally transform our relationship with technology" when it was unveiled.But internally and among clients, that doesn't always feel like the case. One Microsoft executive told Ashley that Copilot offers useful results about 10% of the time."The rest of the time it's: Why do we even try?" they said.It's an unsettling realization considering the stakes of AI. Many companies — and arguably the entire US stock market — are banking on generative AI being revolutionary. And while Microsoft's bet on AI dwarfs almost everyone else's, its hangup with the tech is something a company of any size can relate to: Is this stuff worth it?It's also not the only challenge the generative AI space is navigating.Reports about OpenAI's newest AI model struggling to show big improvements raised questions about the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-orion-model-scaling-law-silicon-valley-chatgpt-2024-11">tech hitting a performance wall</a>. CEO Sam Altman appeared to address it with a cryptic tweet: "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-ai-wall-slowdown-openai-2024-11">there is no wall</a>."Still, it's feeding concerns about the timeline for artificial general intelligence. AGI is the concept that autonomous computer systems outperform humans at most economically valuable work, but it appears <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/agi-predictions-looking-stretched-openai-sam-altman-google-ai-2024-11">harder to achieve than previously anticipated</a>, writes BI's Alistair Barr.<div type="image" title="AI robot hand gripping a time bomb, displaying a countdown timer set to expire in 2025" height="1500" width="2000" msid="115423171" hostid="261" sizebytes="122298"></div>The counterargument is straightforward: It's still the early innings.Microsoft is adamant its Copilot investment is already paying off. Jared Spataro, a vice president of marketing for Microsoft 365, pointed Ashley to Copilot success stories like Lumen Technologies, which projects $50 million in annual savings from its sales team's use of Copilot.Some customers aren't necessarily worried either, as they continue to plow money into AI. A Flexera survey found OpenAI ranked fourth among vendors that IT leaders plan to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-top-vendor-it-leaders-2024-11">spend the most with next year</a>.But tech players won't have forever to figure things out. Earlier this year, analysts at Barclays highlighted an under-the-radar risk to AI bets: <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-risk-nvidia-gpus-blackwell-tech-outlook-depreciation-accounting-2024-8">the depreciation costs related to AI chips</a>. As firms look to stock up on GPUs, they run the risk of the tech no longer being relevant as new iterations emerge.And then there's the possibility of internal drama. Ashley previously reported on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-pay-data-shows-how-much-more-ai-workers-make-2024-8">the pay disparity at Microsoft</a> between AI-focused employees and everyone else."AI is great and it might be the future, but when are you going to focus on your billpayers?" one employee told Ashley.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Meet the top four candidates Trump is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-treasury-kevin-warsh-marc-rowan-howard-lutnick-scott-bessent-2024-11">considering for Secretary of the Treasury</a>.</li><li>Biden authorizes Ukraine to use powerful ATACMS to strike inside Russia. The move is a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-authorization-2024-11">significant shift in US policy</a>.</li><li>Trump, Musk, and new cabinet picks celebrate election victory with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-musk-celebrate-election-victory-ufc-309-cabinet-picks-2024-11">surprise appearance at UFC</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of judge's gavel on colorfulbackground" height="960" width="1920" msid="115423175" hostid="261" sizebytes="501366"></div><ol><li>A lawsuit about trade secrets has a corner of Wall Street's data industry enthralled. Yipit, a Carlyle-backed provider of credit-card data, filed a lawsuit accusing two former salespeople of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-yipits-lawsuit-against-2-former-employees-who-joined-mscience-2024-11">stealing intellectual property to use in their new roles at rival MScience</a>. The suit has the attention of the young, fiercely competitive industry that sells non-traditional data to investors looking for an edge.</li><li>Just because the election is over doesn't mean you need to stop betting on politics. Who will be the Republican nominee in 2028? Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as attorney general? Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve? The prediction markets <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-political-prediction-bets-trump-2028-nominees-election-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">have plenty of political outcomes</a> to scratch your gambling itch.</li><li>It's giving the year 2000 for one legendary investor. Rob Arnott compared the current market to the dot-com peak in 2000. Arnott told BI <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-rob-arnott-warns-bear-market-tech-bubble-2024-11">why a bear market could be forthcoming in the next couple of years</a> thanks to high valuations and AI optimism that is largely priced in.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Elon Musk" height="900" width="1200" msid="115423177" hostid="261" sizebytes="159876"></div><ol><li>Elon Musk's incredible hold on US politics. Politics and money have always been intertwined, but the current relationship between the world's richest man and the president-elect is unprecedented. The result is Musk <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11">acting almost as a shadow president</a>.</li><li>A potential Trump trade plan beneficiary: US semiconductor jobs. If Trump's proposed trade plan is enacted, the American semiconductor industry could see hiring growth. Industry experts told BI that tariffs on foreign-made chips <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-chips-could-create-more-american-jobs-increase-prices-2024-11">could help level the playing field for US chipmakers</a>, which have faced tough competition from their global counterparts.</li><li>The OpenAI mafia swells its ranks. Nearly two dozen former employees have left the AI juggernaut and founded startups of their own. The latest defectors include OpenAI cofounder and former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever and former chief technology officer Mira Murati. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-openai-employees-who-left-launch-vc-backed-ai-startups-2024-1">See what they're up to now</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A $100 bill on top of a house" height="1500" width="1992" msid="115423179" hostid="261" sizebytes="339688"></div><ol><li>Four ways Trump's housing plans could hurt homebuyers and three ways it could help. Trump promised to make housing more affordable in part by deporting millions of immigrants, slashing construction regulations, and building houses on federal land. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-high-home-prices-housing-mortgage-rates-deregulation-tariffs-immigration-2024-11">Here's how experts think that would actually pan out</a>.</li><li>Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The budget airline has struggled since a planned merger with JetBlue was called off in March. In an open letter to customers, it said people can continue to book tickets and fly as normal as it <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spirit-airlines-chapter-11-bankruptcy-restructure-low-cost-airlines-2024-11">undergoes financial restructuring</a>.</li><li>Walmart might be just fine under Trump's proposed trade plan. Target, not so much. As America's grocery king, Walmart US makes nearly 60% of its revenue from groceries, which are predominantly domestic. But Target often relies on imported merchandise, such as apparel and beauty. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-walmart-trump-tariffs-exposure-analysts-2024-11">Walmart also has another key advantage: scale</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>Disney CEO Bob Iger is moving to cement his legacy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-disney-earnings-guidance-succession-legacy-chapek-media-analysis-2024-11">by undoing his biggest mistake</a>.</li><li>Shoppers and businesses are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=c30b8703d160410398dd34e9584c94a3&amp;_e=i25E5ONB4tMiXtE06VeSaaFdC9RBeKEf6Am3QwaEcB2E4JdSqnDqmYr-387ig-ruhUxPoPCaat-voaDbfD_6S9r_lRX7w-hriYUuLZLf0oBVVklUgTGSC4rQQEsaV2VrmBmyEJBbhb5t_4ii9kzf5mGNs24JHBU4kD2t77qvgLde0_hccfFyZJGyX-HSEOcVt3hm2j3fy4fJUboGG4PKvgV09z0iPgS9Sd9YYBa5vfJF0tPkg6nqTPSf_-4F-a8aB1csTjQJYq2n-O1Ho511puOlxNeZs4WzL5ZST0WJkZqjescVMWVojaLY68-GnLbrAONhAtYwR4sRYyo_gVAswrtOyO2OjgTQ7GPu_kEO5SvlrvfmHChZsIOFVxvPWR7cGcH5q-QsclhVCpi1tyVirT8OKMZUsBjylVY0fJJZOSkOO4NwglFhyDOfQDrbf0_ErXhpUTPhEJeNs9bRlNwOVGxCBs2oCYN7T81FPiuSVJw%3D">stockpiling to avoid potential price hikes</a> before Trump takes office.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>G20 summit begins in Rio de Janeiro.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Microsoft Copilot's underperformance is the latest red flag for investments in AI

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The price of gold hit all-time highs this week.</li><li>Falling interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions boost gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.</li></ul>The price of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">gold</a> has soared this year.The precious metal hit a record high of $2,772 per troy ounce this week and has risen in six of the past seven weeks.With year-to-date gains of about 33%, gold returns have outpaced the broader stock market, including the tech-heavy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a>, by about 10 percentage points.And since the bull market in stocks began in October 2022, gold has outpaced equity gains, returning 67% compared to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> return of about 63%, according to data from YCharts.Those superior returns make the metal one of the world's hottest investments.The largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares, has $78 billion in assets under management and has seen about $5 billion of inflows in the past six months, according to data from ETF.com.Physical gold is also having a moment. Costco has consistently sold out of gold bars when they become available on their website and Wells Fargo estimates that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-gold-bars-silver-coins-monthly-sales-wells-fargo-bullion-2024-4">Costco sells up to $200 million in gold bars</a> and silver coins to its members each month.It's been a perfect storm for the yellow metal, and the outlook suggests more gains ahead. Here's what's going on.<h3 id="5edb3548-699e-4d4d-ba18-d306c30fcf12">Demand from central banks</h3>Global central banks have been on a gold-buying spree over the past few years.According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a record 483 tons of gold in the first half of the year. Central banks from Turkey, India, and China topped the list of the biggest buyers.Part of the surge in demand is from countries that want to diversify their holdings away from the US dollar. "We believe that the tripling in central bank purchases since mid-2022 on fears about US financial sanctions and US sovereign debt is structural and will continue," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-buy-continued-rally-next-year-2025-goldman-2024-9">Goldman Sachs said</a> in a note last month.This dynamic has been on display since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, as America sought to inflict maximum economic damage on Russia via sanctions. But it's harder to implement sanctions against a country that is less reliant on the dollar, and one way to be less reliant on the dollar is to buy gold.It is a dynamic that the US should be closely monitoring, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian.El-Erian wrote <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/b5fb1e6b-bb8d-4ab5-9c92-f1f6fc40a54b?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=emailhttps://www.ft.com/content/b5fb1e6b-bb8d-4ab5-9c92-f1f6fc40a54b?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">in an op-ed for the FT</a> this week that the persistent rise in gold "captures an increasingly persistent behavioural trend among China and 'middle power' countries.""There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of the international architecture for some 80 years."Russia has had some success with this, as it's managed to navigate its economy away from a full-fledged downturn after the US imposed wide-ranging sanctions in 2022.Russia's ability to steer its de-dollarized economy away from a crisis could give other countries confidence to lessen their dependence on the dollar, which ultimately benefits gold."What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar's dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system," El-Erian said. "As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system.<h3 id="8959c97e-7efe-42f8-a1a3-3fa362c5ac51">Geopolitical tensions</h3>Gold is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-safe-haven-treasurys-us-national-debt-bofa-fiscal-expansion-2024-10">considered a safe haven asset</a> due to its long-standing history as a stable store of value.So when geopolitical tensions rise, investors tend to flock to the shiny metal, and right now, there is no shortage of reasons to be worried.From Russia's war against Ukraine to the escalating clashes in the Middle East to China's long-running threat against Taiwan's independence, geopolitical tensions are rising, not falling.What's more, soaring US debt means that Treasurys—another historical safe haven asset—might not be so risk-free anymore."Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-safe-haven-treasurys-us-national-debt-bofa-fiscal-expansion-2024-10">Bank of America said</a> in a note this month. <h3 id="29ec9208-7951-47bd-89c8-75f2d6320ca9">The Trump trade</h3>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade has picked up steam recently</a> as the former president's odds of winning the election have risen, and gold has been a big beneficiary.That's because a potential Trump presidency is expected to be accompanied by a soaring government deficit and a fast-growing pile of debt, which would further drive concerns about a rebound in inflation and the sustainability of the US dollar."If you're worried about fiscal profligacy, financial repression, and attacks on Fed independence, gold would be an attractive asset," economist Davix Oxley of Capital Economics said on Friday.Even if Trump doesn't win the election, the deficit is likely to grow, setting gold up well for more gains, according to Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick."It's not as though either candidate is preaching fiscal discipline, and the Fed seems willing to keep cutting even if inflation remains a bit above target. So there is a thought that gold could be a viable alternative if rates rise and the economy remains sound. And if the economy isn't sound it could still be a good store of value," Sosnick told Business Insider."<h3 id="dadb04c2-defd-4fe4-a269-2b48d277b4de">Interest rates</h3>According to data from the World Gold Council, falling interest rates have historically benefited gold prices, with the commodity rising as much as 10% in the six months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.With the Fed expected to cut interest rates multiple times over the next year, lower rates should serve as a tailwind for gold prices.While interest rates<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10"> actually jumped since the Fed's first rate cut</a> last month, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since July this week, gold prices have continued to rise.That's a sign that gold investors are more focused on the global interest-rate path, which is pointing lower as global central banks look poised to loosen monetary policy.The People's Bank of China cut rates by 25 basis points this week, while the Bank of Canada cut by 50 basis points. The European Central lowered rates by 25 basis points last week, and economists say they see the Bank of England <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/why-economists-see-the-uk-cutting-interest-rates-more-substantially.html">set to deliver bigger rate cuts</a> than previously expected by markets.

How gold became one of the world's hottest investments

The prestigious venture firm Sequoia Capital likes to say all its partners invest in every sector. But more than anyone, the growth-stage partner Grady, part of Business Insider's 2024 AI Power List, has led the firm's AI strategy, making bets on companies including OpenAI, Harvey, and Hugging Face. Along with another partner, Sonya Huang, Grady also wrote a public blog post on Sequoia's website inviting AI founders to email them their ideas and pitches directly. A successful deal for Sequoia is more about investing in the best people rather than at the best price, Grady told Business Insider last year. "We don't make money by getting a good deal," he said.See Business Insider's full <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/ai-power-list-2024">AI Power List</a>

Sequoia Capital partner Pat Grady is redefining AI investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

Who does not love to travel? Most of us would give anything to take a long break from our regular work life and travel the world! And if the vacation rental behemoth <keyword id="19900375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Airbnb" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Airbnb" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Airbnb">Airbnb</keyword> is to be believed, Indians are taking to traveling with renewed vigor. When it comes to international travel right now, most Indians are traveling to Tokyo, largely to witness the momijgari (red leaf hunting), or the autumn tradition where leaves turn red, which makes for a breathtaking sight. For those seeking a little peace and quiet, the Amalfi Coast, off the Mediterranean Sea is in vogue. Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are also being increasingly making their way on the travel wish list of most Indian travellers. Per Airbnb, other countries on this list include Montenegro, Norway, Luxembourg, and Georgia. Closer home, the bustling city of Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh is amongst the top travel destination for most Indians, along with the tropical Lakshadweep. People are also flocking to Ujjain and the hilly, quaint town of Munsiyari in Uttarakhand to take a well deserved break from their hectic lives. Says Vinay Bagri, Co-founder and CEO, Niyo, a travel banking platform"India’s growing middle class and increasing incomes are driving the rise in outbound travel. Additionally, India’s soft power diplomacy is shaping global travel industry trends. According to the Henley Passport Index, there are 62 countries where Indian passport holders can travel visa-free". "Niyo has seen a 60% growth in international travel over the past year. 55% among leisure travelers, 70% in student travel, and 25% in business travel. Interestingly, 40% of the customers we onboarded were first-time international travellers”, he continued. <h2>Be financially prepared</h2>But while it is great to travel, or take that dream vacation or overseas trip, setting aside money for the same can certainly be a herculean task. That's why, the key to a stress-free getaway, irrespective of it being a short break or an extended adventure, lies in making strategic investment choices. Here are some ways in which you can create a healthy corpus for your travelling, all from your savings: Creating a Vacation Budget Establish a comprehensive budget that covers expenses such as travel, currency exchange rates, time off from work, and the number of travelers. Conducting in-depth research on your destination, the best time to visit, and other relevant details can also lead to significant savings. A good idea is to plan in advance the number of vacations you wish to take each year. Deciding and booking your tickets ahead of time can help you save costs. Also, having a dedicated <keyword id="23343124" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Travel-Fund" source="keywords">travel fund</keyword>, separate from your daily expenses, helps you stay focused. Consider using a fixed deposit or a liquid mutual fund to watch your money grow faster. Per Swati Bhargava, Co-Founder of CashKaro and EarnKaro, building a travel fund not only allows you to experience your dream vacation, but also fosters healthy financial habits that prevents debt and maximizes the value of your hard-earned money. Short-term Gains for Quick Access Says Bhuvan Rustagi COO &amp; Co-founder of Per Annum, "By exploring options such as recurring deposits, liquid funds and short-term bonds, individuals can enhance their financial flexibility, which can also help them plan any spontaneous adventures". Don't let your travel fund sit idle in a savings account. You can invest it in various short-term instruments, depending on your risk appetite. In case you want to play it safe, a recurring deposit or liquid funds are a good option. For people willing to take on more risk, P2P lending can also be a good option. Automate your way By setting up recurring transfers from your primary account to a dedicated travel savings account, you can ensure that a portion of your income is automatically saved each month. This disciplined approach will eliminates the temptation to spend impulsively, and will also help you stay committed to your travel goals. During the festive season, which will set in from next month, most online platforms, websites, and aggregators abound with enticing discounts on flights and hotels. Keep a keen eye on these deals, and you can significantly reduce travel expenses and plan your trip more efficiently. During the sales, travel portals often offer exclusive discounts tied to specific banks or release flash sales. That is also a great way to maximize your savings on travel. Many Indians are also turning to <keyword id="23343125" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cashback-Platforms" source="keywords">cashback platforms</keyword> to maximize their savings on travel bookings. According to reports, the travel sector sees an average cashback rate of 8%, the highest of all sectors. Further clubbed with credit cards you save a lot more on your hotels &amp; flights. No wonder, travel credit cards emerged as the frontrunners, experiencing a remarkable 27% YoY growth in 2023. "For those planning a festive season getaway, combining multiple offers can lead to substantial savings, making your dream destination more affordable”, continues Bhargava So, what are you waiting for? Start planning your next travel destination now. With smart investments and budgeting, it might happen for you, sooner than you think!

World Tourism Day: Here's where India is travelling to, and how you too, can join the bandwagon

The serial entrepreneur and prolific startup investor Gil, who is part of Business Insider's 2024 AI Power List, has <a target="_blank" class="waffle-rich-text-link" href="https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/exclusive-prominent-solo-vc-elad-gil-raises-1b-for-3rd-fund">raised $1 billion</a>, reportedly bringing his personal war chest to <a target="_blank" class="waffle-rich-text-link" href="https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/01/renowned-investors-elad-gil-and-sarah-guo-on-the-risks-and-rewards-of-funding-ai-tech-the-biggest-threat-to-us-in-the-short-run-is-other-people/">more than $2 billion</a>, to deploy into AI startups. Gil, who invested early in Airbnb, Stripe, and Square, has backed some of the most notable AI startups, such as <a target="_blank" class="waffle-rich-text-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-funding-round-legal-generative-artificial-intelligence-startup-harvey-2023-4">Harvey</a>, Mistral, Pika, Magic, and <a target="_blank" class="waffle-rich-text-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nea-generative-ai-search-engine-perplexity-funding-venture-capital-2023-3">Perplexity</a>. Gil, a former operator at Twitter and Google, <a target="_blank" class="waffle-rich-text-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elad-gil-investors-ai-app-wave-coming-2024-2">recently told Business Insider</a> that he believed the "AI app layer" would start to crystalize this year, bringing the power of rapidly advancing foundation models to the masses.See Business Insider's full <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/ai-power-list-2024">AI Power List</a>

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