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Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs named 95 partners last week, including private wealth exec Brittany Boals Moeller.</li><li>The 39-year-old runs the Southeast region and leads strategy for young and women clients.</li></ul>Brittany Boals Moeller, one of Goldman Sachs' newly minted partners, didn't picture a career in finance when she joined the bank 17 years ago. She grew up in Jonesboro, Arkansas, where her parents were professors at the local university. After graduating from New York University in 2007, she thought she would work at Goldman Sachs for a few years to save up for graduate school, perhaps to study public policy or become a lawyer. But even when the financial crisis hit, which was an opportune time to go back to school, she didn't want to leave."At Goldman, you are given tremendous responsibility and opportunity young in your career if you prove yourself able," she told Business Insider in an interview. "I've never once been bored, and so it's an easy choice to stay."The 39-year-old is based in Atlanta and runs the Southeast region of Goldman Sach's private wealth division. While wealth management clients skew older, the division has a pipeline of rich millennial founders who work with the investment banking arm. Boals Moeller said these clients in their 30s and 40s are more likely to want more than investment advice, desiring services like concierge healthcare and bill pay that make their lives easier. To keep these clients loyal, she leads an initiative to cater to younger clients, including heirs and self-made entrepreneurs, and another that focuses on women customers."They're busy. They want simplicity. They need good people around them to help," she said.During the dealmaking drought, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-private-wealth-management-asset-david-solomon-2023-1">wealth management</a> business gained new prominence. "Quite frankly, private wealth management at Goldman Sachs has never been as much of a focus for the firm as it is today," division cohead John Mallory told BI in 2023.Boals Moeller said the business's current stature is the result of investments more than a decade in the making. She served as chief of staff to wealth management head Tucker York during the financial crisis. Around 2010, she embarked on a listening tour of every wealth office. The advisor feedback led to the bank expanding its offerings beyond investment and tax planning advice."We knew this going way back, and it certainly continues today, which is we are not purely an investment solution for our clients," she said. "Investments are critical and core to our work, but increasingly we're seeing that with the next generation of wealth owners today, they are seeking simplicity and solutions in all aspects of their life."Goldman Sachs' family office offering, Apex, launched a few years later. Now, the division offers chief financial officer services to help clients with not just estate planning but also lifestyle services like cybersecurity.Catering to these younger clients, whether they are old-money heirs or startup founders celebrating their first windfall, requires meeting them where they are. That usually isn't over a steak and martini lunch or 18 holes at the golf course. What entices these clients more, Boals Moeller said, is getting to meet like-minded people.Goldman Sachs holds events and conferences, often with star-studded lineups or in scenic locales. In August, Boals Moeller hosted a reception in Atlanta with singer Ciara and Marc-Kwesi Farrell, the founder of a rum brand that provided custom cocktails. In October 2023, Goldman Sachs hosted a conference in Deer Valley where billionaire Patrón founder John Paul DeJoria talked about keeping a business empire in the family. Sustainability and sports are particularly interesting to this demographic, with Goldman Sachs hosting a tour of a waste-to-clean-energy power plant in Copenhagen and bringing in Michelle Hynik, president of women's football club Utah Royals, to the Deer Valley summit.Advisors also introduce clients to each other when appropriate, such as a pre-IPO founder to an entrepreneur who has already been through the process."A lot of effort is put into helping people not only just manage the risk and obviously the investment side of things, but also the broader piece, which is how do we help you have an amazing corporate outcome from the sale of your business, and how do we help you as a family appropriately prepare for that?" she said.Advisors can meet with families one-on-one for financial education. However, many of these millennial and Gen-Z clients prefer digital education on their own time. Goldman Sachs has courses for children of clients as early as 15 years old. This Semester at GS program has six one-hour sessions that span trading talks from executives in global markets as well as personal finance topics like how to think about a credit score. These virtual sessions are cameras off, Boals Moeller notes."You don't have to be at a desk," she said. "It's not another hour of homework."

This new Goldman Sachs partner is leading the bank's strategy with young heirs and founders

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The American Bankers Association is urging federal action on online financial fraud.</li><li>Banks are facing increased liability for scams, with $10 billion in losses reported last year.</li></ul>Remember the Spider-Man meme where <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-posts-spiderman-meme-first-tweet-in-a-decade-2023-7">he points at himself</a>? Banks and the federal government are in a similar situation, pointing to each other to solve the problem of online financial scams.For its part, the government wants banks to take on more responsibility, and more consistently refund their customers who fall victim to online scams. Banks, on the other hand, want the government to do more to prevent those scams in the first place.The problem is real. Almost 1 in 3 Americans have been the victim of a scam in the past year, with an average loss of $1,600 a person, according to a study from IPX, a financial analysis firm.According to the Federal Trade Commission, consumers reported more than $10 billion in losses last year from online scams. The agency's data also showed that consumers using payment apps reported <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-bill-zelle-fraud-payment-app-waters-blumenthal-warren-2024-8">losing $210 million</a>.It's also a major headache for the banks.American Bankers Association CEO Rob Nichols called for the federal government to create a national scam prevention strategy last week. Nichols also said that Congress should "create and fund" an Office of Scam and Fraud Prevention while speaking to bankers at the association's annual convention in October."The scale of fraud taking place every day is a massive burden for our country and for the millions of hardworking women and men whose lives are affected by it," Nichols said at the convention, according to Forbes. "It will take a united effort — with support from both inside and outside the banking industry — to win this fight."The government, meanwhile, has repeatedly called on financial institutions to improve compensation for victims who lose money to scams.In August, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau launched an investigation into JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, all part owners of Zelle.The investigation came after a Senate investigations committee found that reimbursements from the three banks for disputed transactions on the app fell from 62% in 2019 to 38% in 2023.Also in August, three Democratic senators introduced a bill that would update the 1978 Electronic Fund Transfer Act to require financial institutions to share more of the burden when consumers are victimized by fraud.Nichols said at the convention, however, that fighting back against fraud will require "a whole-of-government approach … that starts at the very top." He also said that the government should create "financial crimes intelligence centers." One already exists in Texas, which he said has been a "force multiplier for law enforcement" there.Nichols also called on the FTC to create a database of reported spam text messages available for "all legitimate businesses to access." Nichols said this kind of database would help banks monitor how scams are evolving and "educate their customers" more effectively."

Banks and the federal government point fingers as Americans lose billions to online scams

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings on Friday.</li><li>Expect lots of questions about how lower rates will impact business going forward.</li></ul>When Wall Street's biggest banks report earnings this week, led by JPMorgan Chase, investors will be listening closely for clues about how a changing interest-rate environment could impact business in 2025.The Federal Reserve in September cut the so-called federal funds rate by 50 basis points — <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9?_gl=1*1ax8rwf*_ga*MzQwMzI0MDQ1LjE3MjEzMDM4ODI.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ5MTE5OC4yOTAuMS4xNzI4NDkxMjEwLjQ4LjAuMA..">the central bank's first cut</a> in more than four years. The September 18 move took place too late to impact third-quarter results, but stock research analysts are expected to pepper executives this earnings season about what a lower interest-rate environment might mean for business going forward.Lower rates can be a mixed blessing for banks. On the one hand, the Fed's campaign to increase the cost of borrowing has contributed to an era of sky-high returns for traditional lenders like JPMorgan, which have been making more money on loans than they have been paying for deposits. But that party was never going to last forever. (Indeed, top JPMorgan exec <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/c11b59f6-4827-4c4e-9f24-2f075b85f665">Daniel Pinto warned last month</a> that stock analysts' so-called NII expectations were too high.)Plus, lower rates could help unleash <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2q-earnings-david-solomon-investment-banking-forecast-2024-7">the dealmaking backlog</a> that investment bankers have been talking about since the pandemic-era M&amp;A boom started to slow in 2022. Their bonuses are counting on it.Speaking of bonuses, third-quarter results will also be closely watched on Wall Street as an indication of how well investment bankers may get paid this year.JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley will report its earnings on Wednesday. Here are the top four things to look for this bank earnings season:<h2 id="629d7158-9393-4502-a5a4-b8a898b107c5">Investment banking</h2>Investment bankers have been predicting dealmaking will return since it started slowing in 2022. But this year, there are strong signs that companies are ready to start going public and merging again.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megamergers-deals-m-a-wall-street-comeback-2024-9">Preliminary data compiled by LSEG</a> shows 425 mergers globally so far this year valued at more than $1 billion. That's up 24% from the same period in 2023. What's more, deals valued at greater than $10 billion were recently up 39% compared with the same period last year.The number of companies going public is also soaring. 106 US companies have gone public through the third quarter, raising a total of $24.7 billion, according to IPO tracker Renaissance Capital. That's up from 71 in 2022 and 108 in 2023 and on track to beat the $27 billion raised in those two years.Third-quarter results — and commentary about 4Q dealmaking so far — will be closely watched for further signs of progress in M&amp;A, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting.<h2 id="bf745d80-abee-4488-881c-e8551a17811c">Trading</h2>At the Barclays Financial Services conference in September, big bank executives warned that trading revenues may be muted compared to 2023.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon described a "more challenging macro environment, particularly in the month of August," and warned that the bank's trading business "is trending down close to 10%." Solomon cited the bank's revenues for FICC, or fixed-income, currencies and commodities, saying that results were "very, very strong" in the third quarter of 2023.At the same conference, JPMorgan's president and chief operating officer, Daniel Pinto, predicted that trading revenues would be "flat to slightly up 2%." "It was a bit more challenging environment to monetize client flows, particularly in rates," he said.<h2 id="723af9a4-99cc-49fd-b909-2fc736985cbb">Lending</h2>Stock analysts will be watching what banks say about net interest income, which is how much banks earn off the difference between what they pay on deposits and what they earn on loans. When the Fed started raising rates, banks were making out like bandits because they were able to charge more for loans more quickly than they were raising rates on savings accounts.But banks have been warning that this dichotomy wouldn't last forever, and loan growth has indeed been slowing as the economy slows. Lower rates could boost lending yet again, but that could take time. In the meantime, JPMorgan's Pinto in September warned that Wall Street stock analysts' 2025 predictions for NII of between $91.5 billion and $90 billion were too high, sending the bank's stock down."I think that that number will be lower," Pinto said at the Barclays Financial Services conference. "We are not going to guide on that now, but the $90 billion is a bit too high."<h2 id="b126e3af-7e38-4ed0-b6d7-4e67905737f9">Bonuses</h2>Banks tend not to talk about bonuses on earnings calls, but how bankers will be paid will be reflected in C-Suite comments about dealing and trading generally — as well as their predictions for the rest of 2024 and into next year.In good news, compensation expert Johnson Associates sees bonuses up this year across the board, an analysis that's reflective in part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2024/10/dinapoli-wall-streets-2024-first-half-profits-232b-were-793-higher-last-year">Wall Street's earnings results</a> so far this year. See here for the compensation expert's views on bonuses for debt underwriting, equity underwriting, sales and trading, and more.<div type="image" title="Wall Street bonus predictions" height="630" width="1950" msid="114096916" hostid="261" sizebytes="88820"></div>

4 trends to watch this bank earnings season

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Eric Sim spent over 20 years in banking, working in Singapore, London, Shanghai, and Hong Kong.</li><li>The engineering major says he had no idea what banking was when he graduated in 1994.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simeric/">Eric Sim</a>, 54, a former banker turned professional speaker and executive coach. The following has been edited for length and clarity. Business Insider has verified his education and employment history.When I picked banking as a career, I had very little idea of what the job would actually involve. I'd never even heard of the big names like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — but banking felt novel and challenging to me.My first job out of school was at DBS Bank, where I did corporate foreign exchange sales. I was an engineering graduate and not as savvy as my colleagues, who majored in business administration.After two years, I decided to leave DBS and get my master's in finance at Lancaster University. I wasn't able to secure a job in London, though. I ended up returning to Singapore in the thick of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.As jobs were scarce, I decided to take work in risk management instead. That was when I joined Standard Chartered.I was fortunate to have a good boss. He really believed in me and sent me on secondments to London and Hong Kong. That kickstarted my international career.I later moved on to Citibank in 2001, where I worked on global markets. In 2005, I saw that China was liberalizing its financial sector, so I asked my boss to post me to China, and I spent two years there.Working in China was eye-opening. Compared to a small country like Singapore, there were lots more industries, such as mining and shipping, to cover.I then relocated to Hong Kong and switched my focus to investment banking and Asia-centric transactions. That paved the way for me to join UBS as a managing director.<h2 id="6126e89b-83ba-409f-829f-7c6830f6f066">I can play the game, but I don't enjoy the game</h2><div type="image" title="Eric Sim giving a lecture to students." height="768" width="1024" msid="115431925" hostid="261" sizebytes="84092"></div>To be honest, I've always thought of leaving banking. Back in 2005, I thought of returning to college to study architecture. I applied for a spot and got accepted into the program after passing a test.But I decided against it. If I went back to school, I would have to study for five years and accrue two years of practical experience before I could qualify as an architect.That was a huge opportunity cost for me, as I could have made up to a million dollars if I had stayed with banking during the same period. I was in my mid-thirties then, and I still had to pay my mortgage. It didn't make financial sense to leave banking then.That said, I also recognized that while I could play the game, I didn't enjoy it. For most people who go into banking, the norm is to work as much as you can and retire when you're 60.However, that leaves you with very limited choices in life. Your health may deteriorate, and you won't be able to travel as much.So after spending over 20 years in banking, I left UBS in 2017.At that point, my health was still good, and I had sufficient savings. That meant that I could pursue the things I liked, and start a new career in professional speaking and executive coaching.In this phase of my life, I'm now focusing on satisfaction, meaning, and fulfillment. Through my work as a speaker and lecturer, I have been able to share my know-how in banking and career planning with more people.<h2 id="cd01a843-0073-4c6f-b1d9-e32d59c1e82f">It is a lot harder to make it in banking these days</h2><div type="image" title="Eric Sim standing in front of the London Bridge." height="768" width="1024" msid="115431926" hostid="261" sizebytes="39050"></div>Banking is really just a sales job. It is about knowing what your customer wants and then building a relationship. You want to be the first person the client calls when they have a problem.But succeeding in banking is a lot harder these days. In the past, there was less competition and less regulation within the sector. It was easier for the banks to make money.Things are different now. After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, a lot more people now know how much money bankers can make. There is a lot more competition for banking jobs.But even if I could turn the clock back, I would still pick banking as a career. Banking is an excellent industry for self-development.My advice to young professionals is to seek out job opportunities that allow them to learn. That has been my career principle and it has served me well.

I made it to managing director after 17 years in banking, then I quit. I didn't want to work myself into the ground well into my 60s.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>American consumers and businesses are having a hard time paying off credit card, auto, and commercial real estate debt.</li><li>US banks have increased their reserves in part to prepare for potential loan losses.</li></ul>US banks are having a harder time <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/credit-score/what-is-debt-collection">collecting debts</a>, so they're taking precautions.According to Federal Reserve data, the past-due debt share for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paid-off-credit-card-debt-solid-plan-2024-6">credit card</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-credit-card-debt-auto-loans-delinquency-economic-outlook-bofa-2024-9">auto</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-debt-property-losses-mortgage-interest-rates-prices-2024-7">commercial real estate</a> has recently risen to above pre-pandemic levels. The share of debt banks have written off as a loss because they couldn't collect it has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/chgallsa.htm">ticked up</a>, with the charge-off rate for two of these three loan types the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS">highest</a> they've been in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCREXFACBS">more than a decade</a>.Business Insider spoke to industry insiders who said this has prompted a response from big banks anticipating a continued increase in bad loans. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-banks-us-list">US banks</a> have increased their reserves in recent years, effectively setting aside cash to cover potential loan losses.While it's commonplace for banks to increase their reserves as loan levels rise over time, reserves have started gradually making up a bigger share of total loans at firms like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wellsfargo.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/third-quarter-2024-earnings.pdf">Wells Fargo</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9d388ee07cccbcc3c8dc5bafe2ea4aff/bankofamerica/db/775/10116/webcast_transcript/2024-10-15+BAC+3Q+Earnings+Call_ADA.pdf">Bank of America</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/3rd-quarter/6bca0e4a-703c-4fff-8e70-f026f015fee5.pdf">JPMorgan</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q32024/3Q24-SUPP-ForWeb.pdf">Citigroup</a>. Since June 2022, Wells Fargo's and Bank of America's reserves have risen by about $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion respectively. Still, for context, these firms' cash coffers are still considerably lighter than they were during the Great Recession.<h2 id="3bd35426-2903-4a17-860b-981ba0e86427">America's 3 debt pain points</h2>Each month, the New York Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/debtexp-1">asks</a> roughly 1,300 Americans to estimate the chance they'll be unable to make a minimum debt payment over the next three months. Aside from the pandemic, Americans haven't been this pessimistic since 2017.Consumers' struggles to repay credit card and auto debt suggest that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rates</a>, while moderating in recent months, are still taking a toll on their finances. Additionally, businesses' struggles to pack back commercial real estate debt show that factors like elevated interest rates and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-market-interest-rates-commercial-real-estate-federal-reserve-pandemic-2024-9">remote work revolution</a> are still having lingering effects.Here's a closer look at each of the three debt categories:<h3 id="df61242d-618b-4bfb-824d-874b5a53ce4d">Credit card debt</h3>As of the second quarter of this year, more than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS">3%</a> of all credit card accounts in the US had past-due balances — up from less than 2% in 2021.The steady uptick in past-due credit card debt over such a short period of time provides some cause for concern, Bruce McClary, a nonprofit credit counselor and senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, told BI."What we are seeing is that people are struggling to repay debt while continuing to use up what is left of their available credit — forcing more people to start falling behind on their payments and into the hands of debt collectors," he said.David Schiff, senior managing director at FTI, told BI that prolonged debt-repayment problems will eventually present a bigger risk to the economy.The increase in reserves raises "real concerns about the softness of certain assets classes — specifically ongoing uncertainty around the commercial real estate market, and increasing worry about the number of revolving credit card customers and their rapidly growing balances," Schiff told BI.<h3 id="2c271636-eeeb-43a1-a28b-b69f0c808b83">Auto debt</h3>A Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-and-high-monthly-payments-20240926.html">report</a> published on September 26 found that auto loan delinquency rates rose "substantially" above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, driven in large part by growth in monthly debt payments.In fact, a growing number of Americans owe more than their cars are worth, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=76e351eb917843c15c21c91acd7d8e92304c81583e3e5bb129c38093d6e7aff2&amp;postID=67114ad8434c477c23344eb6&amp;postSlug=big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edmunds.com%2Findustry%2Fpress%2Fnegative-equity-on-the-rise-the-average-amount-owed-on-upside-down-car-loans-hit-an-all-time-high-in-q3-2024-according-to-edmunds.html%3Futm_source%3Dsubstack%26utm_medium%3Demail">report</a> published on October 15 by the automotive website Edmunds. Stephen Biggar, director of financial services research at Argus Research, told Business Insider that if a bank is forced to repossess such a vehicle, the car's value wouldn't even cover the loan, resulting in losses to the bank. He said that the uptick in auto delinquencies is "not a spike, but is kind of a concern about what goes on from here."<h3 id="108a8464-8ec8-4eb3-8b19-f2eb7af18b2d">Commercial real estate</h3>Another problem for banks is that some businesses with commercial real estate loans are struggling to repay them. Biggar said some of this is tied to high vacancy rates among offices. While many companies have called employees back to the office since the height of the pandemic, office vacancy rates still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/office-vacancy-rate-record-high">rose</a> to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-outlook-office-buildings-vacancies-commerical-markets-investors-remote-2024-1">record highs</a> over the past year.Elevated interest rates have also made it difficult for businesses to pay back debt on commercial real estate loans related to offices, retail, hotel, and apartment building properties, among others. That's because some loans are coming due — forcing businesses to refinance at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-big-trouble-crash-bank-crisis-2024-2">much higher interest rates</a>.To be sure, we're still far from a debt crisis: The share of past-due and charged-off debt generally remains in line with historical levels after rising from pandemic-era lows. Additionally, some banks are simply restoring reserves that were depleted during the pandemic. However, if the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-layoffs-inflation-spending-job-market-tariffs-morgan-stanley-2024-10">economy slows</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-recession-unemployment-rate-september-payrolls-report-fed-cuts-2024-10">unemployment rate</a> rises further, the uptick in delinquencies could become a larger concern, Biggar said.<h2 id="3723386c-1711-4911-97f5-b3d9337f3327">Wall Street acknowledgement</h2>While <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-earnings-calls-interest-rates-fed-cuts-debt-2024-10">banking executives</a> this earnings season generally spoke highly of the economy, they did acknowledge that elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on American consumers."Our customers are healthy, but more discerning in their spend with signs of stress isolated," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/citigroup-c-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> Jane Fraser, Citi's CEO, referring to consumers with lower credit scores.Brian Moynihan, Bank of America's CEO, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/bank-of-america-bac-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcri/">said</a> that overall consumer spending remains strong but that "consumers are worried of the cost of living, worried about higher rates, and other matters."Charles Scharf, Wells Fargo's CEO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/wells-fargo-wfc-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> the bank hasn't seen "meaningful changes" in delinquency rates across its credit portfolio, but that there is evidence of financial strain among some Americans."We continue to see more pronounced stress in certain customer segments with lower deposit and asset levels where inflation has partially offset strong employment and wage growth," he said.Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan's CFO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcrip/">said</a> that consumers' discretionary spending has "normalized" following particularly strong levels in recent years.The financial roller coaster of pandemic payments, whipsawing inflation, and high interest rates are especially affecting lower-income Americans."We know consumers at a certain income level and below are strapped," Biggar said, adding, "There's been a lot of concern, particularly at the lower income category, that people are unable to make ends meet."Going forward, Biggar said that many banks could continue adding to their reserves, particularly if the unemployment rate rises further. That might not ultimately be necessary, since the jobless rate has <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">stabilized</a> over the past two months after a surprise increase."I'm not expecting any big spike from here unless the unemployment rate moves materially higher," Biggar said of further reserve reinforcements.

Big banks are bracing for losses as Americans struggle to pay off debt

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reportedly been tapped on a valuation of OpenAI.</li><li>The transformative AI startup is evaluating what it could take to become a for-profit company.</li></ul>As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-3q-results-dealmaking-trading-resurgence-david-solomon-2024-10">third-quarter earnings demonstrated</a>, Wall Street dealmaking appears to be bouncing back after three years of lackluster activity.For bank bosses, it signals a return to vying for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megamergers-deals-m-a-wall-street-comeback-2024-9">biggest M&amp;As</a>, IPOs, and debt-capital raises in hopes of the largest paydays for themselves and their firms. Yet, one of the most coveted projects on the Street right now is unlikely to mint much money for the investment banks involved — at least in the short term.Last week, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-14-billion-question-dividing-openai-and-microsoft-71cf7d37">Wall Street Journal reported</a> that OpenAI and its longtime backer, Microsoft, have begun talks to determine how much money Microsoft stands to receive if OpenAI converted to a for-profit institution. The Journal reported that OpenAI tapped advisors at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2q-earnings-david-solomon-investment-banking-forecast-2024-7">Goldman Sachs</a>, and Microsoft, which has poured some $14 billion into the AI startup as a nonprofit, is relying on Morgan Stanley to facilitate the negotiations. Spokespersons for both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley declined to comment or confirm their reported participation in the project.BI called up two Wall Street dealmakers who specialize in tech banking to walk us through what the process could look like, as well as a valuation expert on the faculty of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wharton-data-science-class-upenn-madoff-diamonds-airbnb-finance-jobs-2022-3">Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania</a>. They also shared a look at what it could mean for the banks that won this business, both in terms of pay and reputation. The two investment bankers – neither of whom are affiliated with Goldman, Morgan Stanley, OpenAI, or Microsoft — requested anonymity to preserve industry relationships.The experts said the OpenAI valuation process stands to be stressful and drawn out — potentially taking up to six months — and could come with little to no financial reward for the banks involved. That said, the job still represents a huge win for Goldman and Morgan Stanley's tech teams since they now stand at the front of the line for whatever comes next for OpenAI.Thanks to ChatGPT, San Francisco-based OpenAI stands at the forefront of the artificial-intelligence revolution, which is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/artificial-intelligence/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html">projected</a> to contribute nearly $16 trillion to the world economy by 2030, according to consulting firm PwC. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-nearly-doubles-valuation-to-157-billion-in-funding-round-ee220607?mod=article_inline">A recent fundraise</a> valued the company at more than $150 billion. After it converts to a for-profit company, it could seek to raise money through the stock market or make acquisitions — all of which could prove lucrative for its Wall Street partners.Even the banks that are not part of this process stand to win if the final valuation is high enough, said Michael Roberts, the finance professor at Wharton. "If it comes at a really high multiple, what does that mean? It means you can raise an enormous amount of money if you are an AI company," he said, adding: "If I go back 15 years, the place to be as an investment banker was in Silicon Valley. But this could be sort of the next Silicon Valley 3.0."Here's a look inside the process and what it means for the Wall Street dealmakers who won this business, according to the tech bankers and the finance professor.<h2 id="277fe458-53dd-471b-bcca-880ebd8043d7">The banks have different goals: 'You're going to do battle'</h2>Morgan Stanley's objective will be to secure the greatest equity for its client, Microsoft, while Goldman's goal may be the opposite — pitting the two sides against one another."You're going to do battle," said one of the sources — a senior tech banker at a midsize investment bank — about the bankers on either side of the negotiating table.The valuation could take as much as six months, depending on what legal snags crop up, these people said. Since there's no obvious precedent for valuing this company, the bankers will want to get creative, which could open the door to lots of debate.The tech banker at the midsize firm said the goal will be to find comparisons in the real world that would make a compelling case for what OpenAI could be worth. "You might look at some of the early days of the last couple of generations of very disruptive technologies," he said, citing Apple in its early iPhone era and Google "back in the early days of disrupting the search market."The second banker, a former executive at a large-cap investment bank who now handles some tech deals at a small, independent firm, said that the banks will do a "landscape analysis" and ask questions about whether OpenAI could one day take Google's place.Roberts, the Wharton professor, proffered the name of another disruptive tech company: Uber. As it redefined the ride-hailing industry, there were "enormous" variations in its valuation projections. For OpenAI, though, the situation could be even more complex since its impact on the economy stands to be more dramatic.<h2 id="f2400755-f31e-489f-891d-876291a5211f">Risks and rewards</h2>Two of the experts BI spoke to estimated that the banks' fees for their work on the valuation could be low, at under $25 million each, with one suggesting it could even be gratis due to the competitive nature of the business. A third expert estimated the fees would likely be greater than $25 million but under $100 million.For context, advising on an actual merger or big-ticket public offering can <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/04/banks-earn-650-million-in-fees-and-stock-gains-from-ipo-flurry.html">generate many multiples of that</a> for investment-banking advisors — to the tune of hundreds of millions.The fees, however, are not likely the focus. "The goal is to lock the relationship up," said the senior technology dealmaker at the midsize firm, noting that OpenAI and Microsoft are companies that bankers would kill to have as clients.This banker said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-chatgpt-openai-ceo-career-net-worth-ycombinator-prepper-2023-1">Sam Altman</a>, the founder of OpenAI, appears to put a premium on trust and interpersonal relationships, which could be to Goldman's benefit. He has a reputation for being "loyalty-driven," said the banker, who has met Altman and knows his reputation through conversations with the tech community.Morgan Stanley, for its part, has enjoyed a relationship with Microsoft that stretches back years. In 2016, the firm was the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-and-linkedin-bankers-2016-6">only advisor to Microsoft</a> on its $26 billion acquisition of social-networking-giant LinkedIn.This wouldn't be the first time banks have shown a willingness to play the long game in exchange for future potential gains.In 2022, a syndicate of banks led by Morgan Stanley <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-elon-musk-was-able-to-buy-twitter-despite-risks-2022-4">assembled $25 billion in capital</a> to lend to Tesla founder Elon Musk to finance his acquisition of X, the social-media platform formerly known as Twitter. X's lackluster financial performance prevented some banks <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-x-twitter-debt-financing-banks-2008-financial-crisis-2024-8">from offloading the debt</a>, leading to losses. However, the goal, as one banker said at the time, was to "get a foot in the door with the man and his business."The investment banker who formerly worked at a large-cap bank said potential drawbacks could include some banks being excluded from other AI deals for competitive reasons."The likelihood that Google would take a very stance and be less willing to work with them is probably high because whenever you're involved in something like this, you're 'under the tent,' and you're seeing a lot of very sensitive things about where something is going and not going," this person explained.Largely speaking, however, Wall Street is poised to win, Roberts said."Given how much money's at stake here, even the loser isn't really going to lose, are they?" he said, adding, "It's all relative."Are you an investment-banking insider? Get in touch with this reporter. Reed Alexander can be reached via email at ralexander@businessinsider.com, and SMS/the encrypted app Signal at (561) 247-5758.

Inside Wall Street's efforts to value OpenAI: Who's involved, how it could work, and what's at stake for the banks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday that beat analysts' expectations.</li><li>The investment bank posted $12.7 billion of revenue and almost $3 billion of net earnings.</li></ul>Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday that beat Wall Street's expectations, sending its stock up as much as 3% in premarket trading.The investment bank generated $12.7 billion of net revenue, a 7% increase from the same period last year. It also cut its operating expenses by 8%, fueling a 45% surge in net income to $2.99 billion. Earnings per share were $8.40, exceeding Alphasense's consensus estimate of $6.71.Net revenues rose 7% year over year in the global banking and market division, fueled by a 20% surge in investment banking fees to $1.9 billion. The fee jump reflected a sharp increase in net revenues from debt underwriting amid strong leveraged finance and investment-grade activity, and higher net revenues in equity underwriting driven by secondary offerings.The asset and wealth management segment saw a 16% rise in net revenues as it collected record quarterly management and other fees. Moreover, assets under supervision grew by $169 billion last quarter to a record $3.1 trillion.CEO David Solomon said in the earnings release: "Our performance demonstrates the strength of our world-class franchise in an improving operating environment. We continue to lean into our strengths – exceptional talent, execution capabilities and risk management expertise – allowing us to effectively serve our clients against a complex backdrop and deliver for shareholders."He had struck a cautious tone at a Barclays conference in September, per a transcript provided by AlphaSense, warning that Goldman's trading unit was trending 10% lower than a year earlier largely due to fixed-income weakness.Solomon had also warned of a roughly $400 million blow to pre-tax earnings from the bank shifting away from its credit card partnership with General Motors and selling its seller financing loans.Meanwhile, Bank of America's third-quarter earnings showed its revenues were almost flat year on year at $25.3 billion. Higher non-interest expenses pushed its net income down 12% to $6.9 billion.CEO Brian Moynihan said it was another good quarter with "solid earnings results, delivering higher average loans and our fifth consecutive quarter of sequential average deposit growth."Bank of America stock was up 1.7% in premarket trading at the time of publication.

Goldman Sachs beats Wall Street forecasts as investment-banking fees surge 20%

The Indian <keyword id="22196321" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card-industry" source="keywords">credit card industry</keyword> is struggling to grow, as new issues slow down on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. Not only has the growth i.e. issuance of new credit cards slowed down, but lenders are also becoming increasingly cautious of the asset qualities, a recent report by Nomura showed. From 19% in July 2024, the growth in the <keyword id="6368202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card" source="Orion">credit card</keyword> spendings came down to 13% in August 2024. The year-to-date (YTD) growth has also significantly declined in FY25, currently standing at 17%, markedly down from 28% in FY24. For the fifth consecutive month, the number of new credit cards added to the system remained well below the 1-million, or 10 lakh mark. Around 9.2 lakh credit cards were added during the month, a slight uptick from the 7.55 lakh cards that came into the system In July 2024. However, there is growth in this space nevertheless, with about 10.55 crore active credit cards at present, marking a 15.6% YoY increase. Even the annualised spend per card, or the average amount spent via an annual card during an year grew 1% YoY to Rs 1.87 lakh. But this was far less than the 7% growth annual spends via one credit card saw in FY24. Meanwhile, what continues to burgeon consistently is the outstanding amount on these credit cards, which ballooned to Rs 2.7 lakh crore in June 2024, up from Rs 2.6 lakh crore in March 2024, and around Rs 2 lakh crore in the year ago period. To put this in perspective, pre-pandemic, the total outstanding amount stood at Rs 87,686 crore, which marks a 24% CAGR in this amount, in just a span of 5 years. <h2>Large drops, slowdown to sustain</h2>Even the monthly expenditure per card dropped 2% YoY to Rs 16,000 in August, 2024. Subsequently, the transaction volume via credit cards also dipped to 1.6% in August, along with the total amount of <keyword id="21084888" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-card-spending" source="keywords">credit card spending</keyword>, which fell to Rs 1.69 lakh crore in August, from Rs 1.73 lakh crore in July. Also, there has been a hefty cutdown in provisions made for credit card reward points, which reflects in the quantum of credit card benefits that have been mowed out by companies of late, making credit cards far less lucrative than before. <h2>HDFC takes lead </h2>During August 2024, <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC bank</keyword> added a total of 2.41 lakh credit cards, taking its total tally of active credit cards to 2.19 crore. <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> came a second distant, adding 1.45 lakh credit cards during the month, which means that the second-largest credit card issuer now holds over 1.75 crore active credit cards. Axis Bank and SBI Cards also added 1.27 lakh and 1.1 lakh cards, respectively to their repertoire during the month, while the growth numbers at Kotak Mahindra Bank remained largely flat, stagnating the bank's total card tally at 54.13 lakh. This was due to the ongoing ban on the bank due to its weak IT infrastructural issues imposed by RBI in April 2024. If anything, the bank's number of credit cards declined by 61,191 during the month. Even as the festive season approaches, experts think that it is unlikely to make a major dent in credit card spendings, which are expected to see a further slowdown in the quarters to come.

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