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New Delhi: India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists. As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels. This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels. The "<keyword id="23948569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-carbon-budget-2024" source="keywords">Global Carbon Budget 2024</keyword>" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said. The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent. According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total. However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday. Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU. Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent. The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally. Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said. The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added. Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil. Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.

Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

With millions of people across five continents experiencing scorching heat last month, the European Union's (EU) climate agency, Copernicus <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">Climate Change</keyword> Service (C3S), confirmed on Monday that June was the warmest on record. It also marked the 12th consecutive month of <keyword id="20524196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperatures" source="keywords">global temperatures</keyword> reaching <keyword id="22325521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-5-degrees-Celsius" source="keywords">1.5 degrees Celsius</keyword> above the pre-industrial average. According to scientists at C3S, every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record. In January, the world completed an entire year with the mean surface air temperature exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. June was the 12th consecutive month with monthly average temperatures above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the <keyword id="20104670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paris-Agreement" source="keywords">Paris Agreement</keyword> refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period. Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rapidly-increasing concentration of <keyword id="20649149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="greenhouse-gases" source="keywords">greenhouse gases</keyword> -- primarily carbon dioxide and methane -- in the atmosphere. This warming is considered to be the reason behind record droughts, wildfires and floods worldwide. According to new data, June 2024 was the warmest on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.66 degrees Celsius, 0.67 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for the month and 0.14 degrees Celsius above the previous high set in June 2023. "The month was 1.5 degrees Celsius above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, making it the 12th consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5-degree threshold," C3S said in a statement. It was also the 13th consecutive month of <keyword id="21477127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high-temperatures" source="keywords">record-high temperatures</keyword>, a result of the combined effect of the 2023-24 El Nino event and human-caused climate change. While unusual, a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015-16. "This is more than a statistical oddity and highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans," said Carlo Buontempo, the director of C3S. The European climate agency said the global average temperature for the last 12 months (July 2023-June 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.76 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The world's sea surface in June was also the highest ever recorded for the month. Several countries experienced record-breaking heat and devastating floods and storms in June. According to an analysis by Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators based in the United States, more than 60 per cent of the world population faced extreme heat that was made at least three times more likely by climate change during June 16-24. Climate Central said the blistering heat in June impacted 619 million (61.9 crore) people in India, 579 million (57.9 crore) in China, 231 million (23.1 crore) in Indonesia, 206 million (20.6 crore) in Nigeria, 176 million (17.6 crore) in Brazil, 171 million (17.1 crore) in Bangladesh, 165 million (16.5 crore) in the US, 152 million (15.2 crore) in Europe, 123 million (12.3 crore) in Mexico, 121 million (12.1 crore) in Ethiopia and 103 million (10.3 crore) in Egypt. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), northwest India recorded its warmest June since 1901. India, which experienced one of its hottest and longest heatwaves, recorded more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases and over 100 heat-related deaths. The intense heat overwhelmed the water supply system and power grids, with Delhi grappling with a severe water crisis. According to the IMD, 11 states recorded 20 to 38 heatwave days -- up to four times the usual number of such days -- during the April-to-June period. The mercury breached 50 degrees Celsius in parts of Rajasthan, with night temperatures hovering around 35 degrees Celsius in many places. Temperatures were most above average over eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. 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June warmest on record; every month since July 2023 breached 1.5 deg C threshold

According to a new analysis, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> contributed $1.28 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> through <keyword id="20401772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="multilateral-development-banks" source="keywords">multilateral development banks</keyword> (MDBs) in 2022, surpassing the contributions of many developed countries. The study, conducted by the UK-based think tank ODI and the <keyword id="23038658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Zurich-Climate-Resilience-Alliance" source="Orion">Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance</keyword>, comes amid a renewed push by some developed countries to broaden the donor base for climate finance to include developing countries like China and <keyword id="50996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Saudi-Arabia" source="Orion">Saudi Arabia</keyword>. The report reveals that only 12 developed countries provided their fair share of international climate finance in 2022. These countries are -- Norway, France, Luxembourg, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Japan, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and Finland. Researchers noted that the significant gap in climate finance is largely due to the United States failing to contribute its fair share. Australia, Spain, Canada and the United Kingdom also performed relatively poorly in this regard. The analysis has identified the top 30 non-Annex II countries that provided substantial climate finance to developing countries in 2022 through multilateral contributions to development banks and climate funds. This group includes former economies in transition like Poland and Russia, countries that have achieved high-income status since 1992, such as Chile, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and South Korea, and middle-income countries with large populations, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines and Pakistan. India provided $1.287 billion in climate finance to other developing countries through MDBs in 2022, a sum larger than what was contributed by some developed countries like Greece ($0.23 billion), Portugal ($0.23 billion), Ireland ($0.3 billion) and New Zealand ($0.27 billion). China provided $ 2.52 billion in climate finance through MDBs in 2022, Brazil gave $ 1.135 billion, South Korea gave $1.13 billion and Argentina gave $1.01 billion. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<keyword id="21931277" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UNFCCC" source="keywords">UNFCCC</keyword>), adopted in 1992, high-income, industrialised countries (referred to as Annex-II countries) are responsible for providing finance and technology to help developing countries combat and adapt to climate change. These countries, including the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and European Union (EU) member states, such as Germany, France and the UK, have historically benefitted from industrialisation and contributed the most to greenhouse gas emissions. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, these developed countries pledged to jointly provide $100 billion each year by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, this target has not been fully met, leading to a significant finance gap. This shortfall has eroded trust and hindered climate action in developing countries. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (<keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords">OECD</keyword>) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing $ 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly $ 116 billion in climate finance to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 % of the money given in the form of loans. The ODI researchers pointed out that many developed countries, despite performing well in terms of climate-finance contributions, would make "markedly less progress towards meeting their fair share if the finance provided was accounted for on grant-equivalence terms" -- in other words, if it reflected their real fiscal effort. The report calls for the inclusion of a "burden-sharing mechanism" in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to provide clarity on each country's obligations and hold countries accountable. The NCQG refers to the new, larger amount that developed nations must mobilise annually, starting 2025, to support climate action in developing countries. Countries are expected to finalise the NCQG at this year's UN climate conference -- <keyword id="20082972" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COP29" source="keywords">COP29</keyword> -- in Baku, Azerbaijan in November. The current $100 billion annual climate-finance goal is a collective commitment by developed countries. Its collective nature has meant that individual developed countries are not accountable for specific sums of money, potentially reducing the overall amount of climate finance provided due to the lack of individual scrutiny. The inclusion of a burden-sharing arrangement among developed countries could potentially strengthen the NCQG by fostering greater accountability and trust among parties, according to the ODI researchers. Many developing countries, including India, have recently advocated for such an arrangement to enhance accountability among developed countries.

India provided more climate finance in 2022 than many rich nations, noted recent report

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

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Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

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June warmest on record; every month since July 2023 breached 1.5 deg C threshold

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India provided more climate finance in 2022 than many rich nations, noted recent report

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Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

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