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The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

Narendra Modi, elected leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will take oath as <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s prime minister for a historic third term on Sunday evening at 7:15 PM. After a decade of full majority governance, Modi will now run a <keyword id="20018803" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-government" source="keywords">coalition government</keyword>, with the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) as key partners. Despite being in coalition, experts feel that there won't be much change in the new government's economic agenda. Economists believe that <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> will not slow down the reforms and to achieve the goal of Vikshit Bharat by 2047, <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> and policy reviews need to be continued across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, labour, and manufacturing. These reforms are deemed essential to drive economic growth and development in India. "The oft-repeated target of becoming a developed country by 2047 requires far-reaching reforms in the factor market, opening up of the economy and infrastructure development and a thrust towards labour intensive manufacturing. In a coalition environment it may not be easy to carry out big bang reforms, but the thrust of incremental reforms should be in this direction," said M Govind Rao, Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Economists have noted that spending on <keyword id="20229510" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="populist-measures" source="keywords">populist measures</keyword> will increase because of coalition politics, however, the government will continue with its focus on "<keyword id="20054650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Made-In-India" source="keywords">Made In India</keyword>" reforms. Sectors like infrastructure and manufacturing will remain the priority of the government. "There's likely to be a swerve towards greater populist spending and some commitment of resources to states of alliance partners is also likely. But India's public finances are in relatively robust health and to be augmented by significant reserves from the RBI. India's infrastructure spending will continue apace but perhaps with greater private sector participation. Expenditure on defence modernisation and indigenisation will also undoubtedly continue" said Gautam Sen, retired political economist London School of Economics and author, Former member of the Indo-UK Roundtable and Senior Consultant UNDP. The full budget expected to be announced in July, will reflect the economic agenda of Modi 3.0. Many economists expect the Budget will likely see a spurt in welfare and support schemes mainly for farmers and poor. The Budget will indicate the policy priorities for the new coalition government and decide the growth trajectory for the next five years, On the economic front, economists have cautioned the government about the potential setbacks from a sluggish global economy and geopolitical crisis. "One constraint remains the sluggish world economy, which could suffer worse setbacks next year, though Indian growth has risen despite it. The unknown is the impact of external shocks of intensifying wars and uncertainty over energy prices" added Sen. Meanwhile, in a significant boost to the start of Modi 3.0, the Reserve Bank of India on June 7 revised upwards the <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.

Economists expect big bang reforms to continue under Modi 3.0

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UK army is unprepared for any type of war, a former defense official told the Financial Times.</li><li>It would also run out of ammunition quickly in any large-scale operation, Robert Johnson said.</li></ul>The UK's armed forces are not prepared for any type of war and would quickly struggle with supplies, a former defense official said."In any larger-scale operation, we would run out of ammunition rapidly," Robert Johnson told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/8251f12b-0296-47f0-a774-3b7c99b9e53d">Financial Times</a>.In his previous role as director of the Secretary of State's Office for Net Assessment and Challenge, Johnson <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/announcement-of-new-director-appointed-to-the-secretary-of-states-office-for-net-assessment-and-challenge-sonac">led</a> a 25-person team charged with wargaming and using research, analysis, and external think tanks to ensure the UK's defensive capabilities were at "peak" performance.After leaving the role in May, Johnson assessed that the UK military cannot defend the British homelands "properly" and would be underequipped for overseas operations of the scale of the Falklands and Iraq wars."Our defenses are too thin, and we are not prepared to fight and win an armed conflict of any scale," he told the FT.The UK is a member of NATO and one of Ukraine's closest allies.But Johnson cited the UK's "insufficient" air defenses to intercept long-range missile strikes, its navy's lack of ships to patrol the North Atlantic to monitor and deter Russian submarine activity, and its air force's need for almost twice as many fighter jets as it has.The UK has also failed to play a global role and deter adversaries, Johnson told the FT."The government is not taking the public into its confidence about the scale of the threat because it knows it's not ready," he said, adding that being honest did not pose any security risks because "the Russians already know this anyway."Johnson, who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/robert-johnson">heads</a> Oxford University's Changing Character of War Centre, is the latest defense official to have raised concerns about the UK's war readiness.In a February <a target="_blank" href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmdfence/26/summary.html">report</a> titled "Ready for War?", the UK's defense committee found British forces are not prepared to fight a "sustained, high-intensity" war.Meanwhile, in an April <a target="_blank" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/06/britain-is-not-ready-for-war-ministers-defence-mod/">comment piece</a> for The Telegraph, outgoing armed forces minister James Heappey said the UK is a "very long way behind" its allies in preparing for war.Johnson's assessment comes days before the UK general elections, which, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/polls">according</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html">to</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls">polls</a>, show the Conservative Party losing to the Labour Party after 14 years in power.According to Johnson, the next government should hike defense spending to at least 3% of GDP."We have to cut our coat to fit our cloth," he told the FT.

UK army is unprepared for war and would run out of ammo quickly, former defense official says

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6354868" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UK" source="Orion">UK</keyword>'s gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in August, after growth of 0.1 percent in July, the Office for <keyword id="317013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Statistics" source="Orion">National Statistics</keyword> (ONS) has said. </li><li>The 0.3 percent GDP fall in August was below economists' previous forecast of zero growth, deepening the concerns that the UK economy is sliding into <keyword id="6357558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Recession" source="Orion">recession</keyword>. </li><li>The production sector was the main contributor to negative GDP growth in August, falling by 1.8 per cent, and services also fell by 0.1 per cent, according to the ONS.</li></ul>The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in August, after growth of 0.1 percent in July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. The 0.3 percent GDP fall in August was below economists' previous forecast of zero growth, deepening the concerns that the UK economy is sliding into recession, Xinhua news agency reported. "The economy shrank in August with both production and services falling back, and with a small downward revision to July's growth the economy contracted in the last three months as a whole," <keyword id="15240996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ONS-Chief-Economist-Grant-Fitzner" source="Orion">ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner</keyword> explained. The production sector was the main contributor to negative GDP growth in August, falling by 1.8 per cent, and services also fell by 0.1 per cent, according to the ONS. Output in consumer-facing services dropped by 1.8 per cent in August, and the biggest negative drivers were sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities. Construction grew by 0.4 per cent in August, the ONS said. The surprise GDP drop has echoed the Bank of England's (BoE) earlier prediction. In late September, the central bank staff expected GDP to fall by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter. The August figure suggests that the country has got "a big step closer to recession," commented Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, adding that "August's drop in GDP likely marks the start of a downward trend that will continue deep into next year." The GDP drop also fueled concerns among businesses. "The UK economy retreated in August. And business surveys, including our own, have turned sharply downwards since the summer and there is an increasing chance that the UK entered a downturn during the third quarter," Ben Jones, an economist from the Confederation of British Industry, said. Calling the August GDP figure "a warning sign that the economy was already stalling before the market turmoil of recent weeks," David Bharier, head of research at the British Chambers of Commerce, said business confidence is falling at an alarming rate. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its World Economic Outlook that a significant slowdown is projected in the UK. "Growth is forecast at 3.6 per cent in 2022 and 0.3 per cent in 2023 as high inflation reduces purchasing power and tighter monetary policy takes a toll on consumer spending and business investment," the report said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/apps/news/whatsapp-now-a-spam-factory-1-in-2-indian-swamped-with-promotional-messages-report/articleshow/94815568.cms">WhatsApp now a spam factory, 1 in 2 Indian swamped with promotional messages: report</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/avoid-sectors-having-global-exposure-like-it-oil-gas-icici-securities/articleshow/94815478.cms">Avoid sectors having global exposure like IT, oil, gas: ICICI Securities</a>

Recession fears mount as UK GDP falls 0.3% in Aug

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 28 (<keyword id="19904948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ani" source="keywords">ANI</keyword>): The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has released its analysis projecting the GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2023-24. According to their report, the GDP growth is likely to be at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23. As per a report by <keyword id="20407500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="keywords">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, the global economic landscape, as outlined in the report, presents a mixed picture with several significant developments impacting the trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, indicating a brighter outlook. However, challenges persist, with countries like the UK and Japan slipping into recession, alongside concerns over the German economy. Additionally, China's marked slowdown, driven by deflationary concerns and declining industrial profits, adds further complexity to the global scenario. In contrast, India's domestic economic indicators show signs of resilience and optimism. Consumer confidence has strengthened, supported by positive sentiments regarding the economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also reflect strong business optimism. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, comprising 41 leading indicators across sectors, suggests a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this data, the SBI Economic Research Department estimates GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent. Corporate India continues to exhibit robust performance, driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban and rural areas. Corporate results for Q3FY24 indicate significant growth in <keyword id="20140796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ebidta" source="keywords">EBIDTA</keyword> and PAT (Profit After Tax), with a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, measured by EBIDTA plus employee expenses, recorded strong growth compared to the previous year. The agricultural sector, however, faces some challenges, with a decline in the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the sowing season for Rabi crops suggests a slight increase in overall acreage, concerns arise over the decline in the sown area under cereals. Despite these challenges, the inland fish production has shown rapid growth, reaching 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The fisheries sector's contribution to the national GVA and agricultural GVA indicates potential support for the Agri &amp; Allied sector's growth in FY24. (ANI)

SBI Eco Research forecasts Q3 FY24 GDP growth at 6.8% amid global complexities

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Two of the world's biggest economies are officially in recession, per new figures published Thursday.</li><li>Japan posted a surprise contraction in GDP, dragged down by its weak currency and aging population.</li></ul>The US economy managed to shake off <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-ai-inflation-federal-reserve-rally-bull-market-2023-12">Wall Street’s gloomy forecasts</a> and dodge a long-predicted slump last year — but the same can’t be said for two other members of the G7.Japan and the UK are both officially in recession, according to figures published Thursday, after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for two consecutive quarters to close out 2023.Here’s why the world’s fourth and sixth-largest economies are struggling, even as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-gdp-fourth-quarter-of-2023-2024-1">the US goes from strength to strength</a>.<h2>Japan: Slumping yen, shrinking population</h2>Japan officially lost its title as the world’s third-largest economy to Germany on Thursday, as Cabinet Office data showed that its economy shrank by 0.4% over the final three months of 2023.The contraction, which followed a 3.3% third-quarter slump, defied forecasters’ prediction of a 1.4% jump.The plunging <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">Japanese yen</a> is one issue that’s plagued Japan in recent years. The currency has tumbled 30% against <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">the US dollar</a> since the start of 2022, according to data from Dow Jones. It's been dragged down by the Bank of Japan’s refusal to follow the Federal Reserve’s lead and raise interest rates, making it less attractive to foreign investors seeking juicier returns.Japan’s economy has tended to rely on its exports of cars and other goods — and a weaker yen means that its companies bring in less money when they sell products abroad.Like its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-china-population-falling-economy-deflation-evergrande-xi-jinping-2024-1">neighbor China</a>, Japan is also suffering due to an aging and shrinking population. A well-publicized fertility crisis means that Japanese women have just <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/23/japan-kishida-economy-speech-women-birth-fertility-rate-population-demographics/">1.3 children on average</a>, well below the rate that demographers believe is needed to maintain a stable number of citizens. That could result in chronic labor shortages in the decades ahead.<h2>UK: Cost-of-living crisis, weak spending</h2>Britain also got some bad economic news Thursday, as official data showed its economy shrank by 0.3% between October and December — its second straight quarterly contraction.That officially put the UK into recession. In 2023, it logged dismal growth of just 0.1%, for its worst 12-month performance since the year following the financial crisis in 2008.Since the pandemic, the UK has been battling an even worse cost-of-living crisis than other developed countries. Inflation surged as high as 11% in October 2022 and is still running at 4%, double the Bank of England’s 2% target.Soaring prices have eroded British consumers' spending power — which has played a major role in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-funflation-live-concerts-economy-bank-of-america-2023-10">keeping the US economy afloat.</a> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts also warned this week that the UK is still suffering from the decision to leave the European Union back in 2016.News of a recession comes at a particularly bad time for prime minister Rishi Sunak, who’s gearing up for a general election later this year and has tried to play up his economic credentials. His Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour Party by 21 points in the polls, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico data</a>.

The US economy is booming — but Japan and the UK just slipped into recession. Here's why.

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11895316" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="finance" source="Orion">Finance</keyword> minister Serhiy Marchenko said <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword>'s <keyword id="11921644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> would shrink by 30-50% this year, per Reuters.</li><li>Ukraine's <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> has been hit by production slowdowns and a massive humanitarian crisis.</li></ul>Ukraine's finance minister has said the country's economy could be half the size it was before Vladimir Putin's forces invaded, amid a mass exodus of citizens and industry shutdowns.Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-gdp-may-fall-between-30-50-2022-finance-minister-2022-04-16/">reported</a> the <keyword id="11893589" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="news" source="Orion">news</keyword>, citing an unspecified televised interview on Saturday. According to Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine's GDP could fall by between 30% and 50% this year, per the interview reported by Reuters. The comments came as the country seeks financial aid to combat falling tax revenues while trying to hold off <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s offensive.On Saturday, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-prime-minister-finance-officials-visit-washington-next-week-2022-04-15/">reported</a> that Marchenko was planning to visit Washington next week along with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko to meet with finance officials from G7 countries in a meeting chaired by the World Bank, citing sources. In March, Reuters reported a televised interview from an unspecified source in which Marchenko <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-invasion-shut-down-30-ukraines-economy-finance-minister-says-2022-03-19/">said</a> the war had shut down 30% of Ukraine's economy. "Our tax revenues do not allow us to cover our needs, the main revenue stream is borrowing," Marchenko is reported to have said at the time.His latest assessment is broadly in line with the World Bank's <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/10/russian-invasion-to-shrink-ukraine-economy-by-45-percent-this-year">forecast</a> delivered on April 10, which projected a 45% contraction to Ukraine's GDP this year, citing displacement of people, damage to infrastructure, and disruption to trade.Ukraine's economy is known for its exporting of commodities like corn and wheat, which S&amp;P Global <a href="https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/ukraine-agriculture-exports-what-is-at-stake.html">estimated</a> at 12.8% and 10.5% of the world's exports respectively last year. Production and exporting of these and other goods have been heavily disrupted by the war. An economic slump has been exacerbated by a huge humanitarian crisis that has greatly reduced Ukraine's population. According to the <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">UNHCR</a>, nearly 4.8 million refugees have fled the country since February 24, further reducing the country's ability to generate economic output.Comparatively, Russia's economy is <a href="https://www.iif.com/Research/Regional-Country/EM-Europe/Russia#:~:text=Macro%20Notes%3A%20Russia%20%2D%20Economy%20to%20Contract%20Sharply%20in%202022&amp;text=We%20expect%20the%20Russian%20economy,imports%20will%20offset%20lower%20exports.">expected</a> to shrink by up to 15% as a result of widespread sanctions, high <a href="https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/ddkp/mo_br/">inflation</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-all-the-companies-pulling-out-of-russia-ukraine-war-2022-3">boycotts</a> by Western companies. But Putin will <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-putin-economic-adviser-halt-war-months-andrei-illarionov-2022-4">likely</a> be spared a crippling recession by rising oil prices as Western countries continue to import Russian energy.

Ukraine's finance minister says the country's economy could shrink by half this year due to the war, a report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="12066495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-economy" source="Orion">UK economy</keyword> is now bigger than it was before the pandemic started, after strong growth in November.</li><li>Gross domestic product, or GDP, grew 0.9% in November, up from 0.2% in October and above expectations.</li></ul>The UK's gross domestic product is now bigger than it was before the <keyword id="11893194" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus" source="Orion">coronavirus</keyword> pandemic struck and wreaked havoc on the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword>, following a strong bout of growth in November.The country's GDP — the most common measure of the size of the economy — grew 0.9% in November month-on-month, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/november2021">Office for National Statistics</a> said Friday.It was a much stronger reading than both the 0.4% expected by economists and October's 0.2% expansion.The growth took <keyword id="12066494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-gdp" source="Orion">UK GDP</keyword> to 0.7% above where it stood in February 2020, just before coronavirus started ripping through the country and the government clamped down on economic activity.However, November was the last month before the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-covid-variant-spread-faster-uk-south-africa-cases-2021-12">Omicron coronavirus variant took hold</a> in the UK and prompted Downing Street to put in place new restrictions. Staff absences are expected to have weighed on growth in December and January.November saw stronger-than-expected performances from both the construction and manufacturing sectors, which posted growth of 3.5% and 1.1% respectively. Retail also helped services expand relatively strongly.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">pound</a> rose after the release of the figures, and was last up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.374. London's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> stock index was down 0.41%.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-stocks-to-buy-investing-style-growth-value-large-small-2022-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">Wall Street giants are divided on the best investment styles for this year, from growth versus value to large or small caps. Here's the breakdown, and their recommendations.</a>British Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: "It's amazing to see the size of the economy back to prepandemic levels in November — a testament to the grit and determination of the British people."The finance minister urged people to go out and get their booster shot, saying this would help the UK economy to continue to grow.Susannah Streeter, senior <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> analyst at broker Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The UK economy was in fitter form than expected before Omicron hit."With Omicron expected to be a short sharp shock rather than a lingering malaise, this November snapshot is likely to be taken as more evidence that once infection rates subside, the economy will be in good enough shape to withstand further interest rate rises."The <keyword id="106488" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bank-of-england" source="Orion">Bank of England</keyword> <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bank-of-england-interest-rates-inflation-omicron-uk-economy-2021-12">raised interest rates</a> in December in an effort to tamp down on the strongest inflation in a decade. Analysts expect the central bank to hike them again in the coming months."A February Bank of England rate hike is growing more likely," said James Smith, developed markets economist at Dutch bank ING. The next BoE decision is due on February 3.

The UK economy saw a rapid 0.9% growth spurt in November, making it bigger now than before the pandemic

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="12066495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-economy" source="Orion">UK economy</keyword> slowed sharply in the third quarter as supply chain problems and <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> made themselves felt.</li><li><keyword id="12066494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-gdp" source="Orion">UK GDP</keyword> grew 1.3%, less than expected and in contrast to growth of 5.5% in the second quarter.</li></ul>UK economic growth cooled sharply in the third quarter as the natural rebound following the lifting of COVID restrictions faded, and as the <keyword id="11894139" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="supply-chain-crisis" source="Orion">supply chain crisis</keyword> and rising inflation made themselves felt.Gross domestic product grew 1.3% in the July-to-September period, compared with the previous three months. That was considerably slower than the 5.5% expansion in the second quarter. Economists had expected growth of 1.5%.On a brighter note, the economy in September grew 0.6% month-on-month, the Office for National Statistics <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/september2021">said</a> Thursday. Analysts had predicted 0.4% growth.However, the ONS downgraded its estimate of growth in August, from 0.4% to 0.2%. It did the same for July, revising from a 0.1% fall to a 0.2% drop.Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said the "easy gains" from the reopening of the economy have been exhausted."The recovery has entered a much tougher phase. In addition, the situation has been made harder by the escalation of supply chain disruption and the increases in inflation, which will eat into household spending power."UK GDP remained 0.6% below its February 2020 pre-coronavirus level in September, the ONS said.The UK economy continued to benefit from the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the third quarter. But growth came in lower than expected in both July and August as the economy grappled with the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supply-chain-crisis-when-it-will-be-over-end-2021-11">supply problems</a> that are affecting countries around the world.Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note before the data was released that household confidence had cooled in the third quarter, in part because higher inflation was making people nervous.Inflation <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/uk-inflation-boe-august-cpi-food-energy-prices-interest-rates-2021-9">surged in August</a> to 3.2% year-on-year, the highest in nine years, and remained elevated in September. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">pound</a> fell after the data release and was last down 0.21% at $1.338, while the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> was up 0.29%.

UK growth slows to 1.3% in the 3rd quarter as supply chain disruptions and inflation hit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shares were down in Europe and Asia Friday following hawkish comments from <keyword id="11895523" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="federal-reserve" source="Orion">Federal Reserve</keyword> officials.</li><li>Altcoins led a crypto rebound, after Tesla said it would accept dogecoin to pay for merchandise.</li></ul>Global shares eased on Friday, following a slew of hawkish comment from Federal Reserve officials, while cryptocurrencies recovered more ground, led by gains in dogecoin after electric vehicle maker Tesla said it would accept some payments using the meme token. <keyword id="12587226" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="lael-brainard" source="Orion">Lael Brainard</keyword>, the prospective deputy Fed chair, echoed the hawkish sentiment her colleagues led with earlier in the week in her confirmation hearing to the Senate, while San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly separately told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-feds-daly-march-liftoff-is-quite-reasonable-2022-01-13/">Reuters</a> in an interview that a March rate hike was "quite reasonable."A 39-year high <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> print on Wednesday underscored investors' belief that the Fed will have to raise rates at least three this year to relieve growing price pressures, if not more. US stock futures were relatively flat on Friday, with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> gaining 0.1% in early trading while the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones</a> and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq 100</a> lost 0.64% and 0.12% respectively. The MSCI All-World index was last down 0.3% on the day, reflecting weakness in European and Asian <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>.In Europe the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/stoxx_europe_600">Stoxx 600</a> was down for the second week, its worst trading week since November last year, declining 0.6%. European markets were in line with Asia, where the MSCI Asia index was down around 0.7%New <keyword id="11921644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> data released Friday showed the <keyword id="12066495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-economy" source="Orion">UK economy</keyword> was now bigger than before the pandemic. Rapid economic growth of 0.9% in November put the UK economy 0.7% above pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics."But before we all start popping the champagne corks, there is the obvious missing elephant in the room here – that of Omicron," Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments said."With many workers being forced to isolate due to the explosive case growth we have witnessed in the UK, December and January's monthly GDP prints will be severely impacted. Couple that with higher taxes and energy costs later next quarter and the consumer outlook is far from rosy," he said.In the cryptocurrency market, dogecoin soared, leading the charge higher, after <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/tesla-starts-accepting-dogecoin-for-merchandise-meme-coin-spike-2022-1">Elon Musk</a> announced that Tesla will accept the token as a payment method for merchandise. Dogecoin was last up 9.8% over the past 24 hours at $0.1883, around its highest in a month.Injecting another element of caution was the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, which kicks off on Friday with results from JPMorgan. Some analysts are cautious about the potential for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/q4-earnings-season-best-worst-stocks-weird-accounting-new-constructs-2022-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">nasty surprises</a> in this next crop of earnings reports, given the volatility of Covid cases and the labor shortage. But others were more upbeat. Guilaume Paillat, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors is focusing on earnings and the potential for upside: "There's still a bit of room for earnings to surprise to the upside."Covid cases are slowing down in some US cities where the Omicron variant is showing signs of peaking according to an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-experts-poop-data-shows-omicron-peaking-in-the-us-2022-1">unlikely data source</a> that could lead to more optimistic outlook in the long term.

Global shares fall as hawkish Fed signals continue to echo across financial markets

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="12066495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-economy" source="Orion">UK economy</keyword> grew in August after shrinking in July, but the expansion undershot expectations.</li><li><keyword id="12066494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-gdp" source="Orion">UK GDP</keyword> grew 0.4% in August after a fall of 0.1% in July, leaving the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> 0.8% smaller than before COVID struck.</li></ul>The UK economy expanded in August after shrinking slightly in July, but growth narrowly undershot expectations and analysts said supply shortages would make the coming months difficult.UK gross domestic product grew 0.4% in August after a revised 0.1% fall in July, the Office for National Statistics <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2021">said</a> Wednesday. August's reading was below expectations of 0.5% growth.Output in the all-important services sector grew 0.3%, leaving it just 0.6% smaller than in February 2020.The August expansion left overall UK GDP 0.8% below where it was in February last year, the ONS said. That's a much smaller gap than in July, after previous months' growth figures were revised upwards."The economy picked up in August as bars, restaurants and festivals benefited from the first full month without COVID-19 restrictions in England," Darren Morgan, director for economic statistics at the ONS, said.Market reaction to the data was muted, with the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">pound</a> up 0.4% against the dollar to $1.364 and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> stock index 0.26% lower.The UK economy grew rapidly in the second quarter, but growth has slowed in recent months as the recovery has shifted into a lower gear. Rising delta variant <keyword id="11893194" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus" source="Orion">coronavirus</keyword> cases weighed on growth in the summer by forcing thousands of people to self isolate.Now, economists say the economy faces more hurdles in the form of supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices, which led to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fuel-shortage-gas-station-photos-show-panic-buying-queues-uk-2021-9">panic buying at gas stations</a> in early October.The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said the UK's recovery will lag behind that of the other G7 nations, as coronavirus and Brexit leave scars on the economy. It said UK GDP would be around 3% smaller in 2024 compared to the IMF's forecasts in the fall of 2019.<keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">Inflation</keyword> has surged in the UK in recent months, and is expected to top 4% by the end of the year. The <keyword id="106488" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bank-of-england" source="Orion">Bank of England</keyword> is expected to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates. But economists said slowing UK growth may force BoE officials to rethink."We suspect shortages will be a bigger drag on GDP in September and October - the petrol crisis probably prevented some people from getting to work," Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said."So while the chances of a rate hike this year have risen recently, a weaker activity outlook means it's not a done deal."

UK economy expands in August after July dip, but growth undershoots expectations

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="12066495" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-economy" source="Orion">UK economy</keyword> grew much more than previously thought in the second quarter.</li><li>GDP grew 5.5% in the quarter, compared with a previous estimate of 4.8%.</li><li>Economists said this bolsters the case for the <keyword id="106488" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bank-of-england" source="Orion">Bank of England</keyword> to raise <keyword id="6371181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> sooner than expected.</li></ul>The UK economy grew much faster in the second quarter than previously estimated, new figures have shown, bolstering the case that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner rather than later.UK gross domestic product rose 5.5% in the period from April to June, the Office for National Statistics <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2021">said</a> Thursday, an upward revision from a preliminary estimate of 4.8%. By contrast, the economy contracted 1.4% in the first quarter.It leaves the level of <keyword id="12066494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="uk-gdp" source="Orion">UK GDP</keyword> - the most common way of measuring the size of the economy - 3.3% lower than before the pandemic.The Bank of England last week said the case for cutting stimulus and raising interest rates <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-interest-rate-bond-buying-inflation-gas-prices-2021-9">was growing</a>, in response to stronger-than-anticipated inflation.Thursday's strong GDP growth reading adds to the case that the UK economy does not need as much support from the the central bank, economists said."Today's release suggests the economy is closer to its pre-pandemic level than we had previously thought and raises the risk that the Bank of England hikes interest rates sooner than our forecast of May 2022," Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">pound</a> had a choppy morning, but was last up 0.29% against the dollar at $1.346. London's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> stock index was 0.42% higher.Britain's economy grew rapidly over the summer as the rollout of coronavirus vaccines and the loosening of lockdown restrictions boosted businesses and consumer spending.The ONS said the second-quarter GDP upgrade was partly because the health services and the arts sectors performed better than initially estimated. It also underscores the difficulties of collecting accurate data at such a volatile time for the economy.

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