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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Major banks like Goldman Sachs walloped Wall Street expectations thanks to dealmaking fees.</li><li>Investment banking has made a comeback, and bigger bonuses are in the cards, too.</li></ul>Christmas came early for investment bankers.The biggest banks on Wall Street reported a huge boost in dealmaking fees this quarter after a two-year slump. Investment bank revenue surged 30% on average at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-3q-results-dealmaking-trading-resurgence-david-solomon-2024-10">Goldman Sachs</a>, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo."We continue to believe we are in the early stages of a multiyear capital markets recovery," Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya said during an earnings call. Morgan Stanley's investment bank revenue surged 56% year over year to $1.46 billion, beating Wall Street expectations.Several tailwinds are at play, including tempering inflation and pent-up demand. Debt underwriting has surged as companies rushed to take advantage of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rate cuts</a>, S&amp;P Global's Nathan Stovall told BI. After years of recession fears, there is more optimism the Federal Reserve can deliver a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">soft landing</a>, he said."You're seeing corporates get more comfortable with the world they're operating in, and they're willing to take more risks, and this leads to more M&amp;A activity, more equity raising, things like that," said Stovall, director of financial institutions research.An incoming flurry of dealmaking could reflect a broader economic recovery, as lower borrowing costs make it easier for companies to fund acquisitions. This past quarter saw several <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megamergers-deals-m-a-wall-street-comeback-2024-9">megamergers</a>, such as candy giant Mars buying the maker of Pringles for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mars-buying-pringles-cheez-it-maker-kellanova-36-billion-deal-2024-8">nearly $36 billion</a>. Citi advised Mars and provided $29 billion in debt financing with JPMorgan. Paramount <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paramount-global-agrees-to-merge-with-skydance-shari-redstone-2024-7">agreed to merge</a> with David Ellison's Skydance Media. Bank of America is one of Skydance's advisors on the $8 billion deal.Wall Street CEOs, however, are cautious about their enormous wins. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon </a>warned on an earnings call that the favorable interest rate conditions "may not prevail or be the ongoing conditions late next year" and of geopolitical turmoil that is "treacherous and getting worse." Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that while the bank had a healthy backlog, M&amp;A and equity activity is still well below 10-year averages.Risks to this comeback loom large, Mayo wrote in a research note."There's little question to us that activity and revenues reflect a degree of bull market banking," he wrote. "This could end based on potential results and reactions to the upcoming November elections, a stock market decline, and/or unexpected changes in rates (esp. higher)."Portfolio manager Cole Smead described the results as a "head fake." Smead is watching the US's ballooning deficit, concerned it could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fixed-income-investing-tips-national-debt-yield-curve-steepening-treasury-2024-9">push up bond yields</a> and the cost of borrowing, which would discourage dealmaking."This can go on for maybe a quarter or two more, but it is likely going to fall apart long before it ever gets back to anywhere near the numbers of 2021," said the CEO of Smead Capital Management, which owns shares of Bank of America and JPMorgan. "Ultimately, this equity market, with many risks out there, is complacent and doesn't care. The problem is when the chickens come home to roost, this activity will go back to low levels again."<h2 id="d7f46fb6-2aae-4454-a462-5b0acb5aa3e8">The potential 'X-factor'</h2>While the risks are real, this quarter's upswing isn't necessarily a blip. For the five banks, Mayo estimated that capital markets revenue will grow 8% in 2025 to $31.7 billion and another 7% to $34 billion in 2026.There's also what Mayo calls "the X-factor": the $1 trillion-plus of dry powder held by private equity firms.Jon Gray, president and chief operating officer of private equity giant Blackstone, said that anecdotally, the number of confidentiality agreements more than doubled in September compared with a year ago."Now, that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to turn into that volume of deals. But it clearly shows you there is more enthusiasm," Gray said during the firm's earnings call Thursday. "And we know in the private equity world, there's a lot of companies that need to be sold, similar story in real estate."Finance professor David Stowell told BI that while the upcoming US election and overseas conflict pose economic risks, the sponsors can't sit on the sidelines indefinitely."They know that they always have to risk-adjust their investments," said Stowell, an investment banker for two decades before joining the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. "They pretty much have to spend the money, or their kind of business goes away."Stovall acknowledged that one quarter doesn't make a trend but said that economic data, such as job creation numbers, points to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-data-points-to-soft-landing-no-recession-2024-9">soft landing</a>. This bodes well for dealmaking for the rest of the year and 2025."I'm cautiously optimistic," he said. "It is wise to not jump up and down and say things are going to go straight up from here, but I do think it's more encouraging than it's been for a while."For now, some Wall Streeters can already count on larger bonuses, according to compensation consultant Alan Johnson. With debt and equity capital markets thriving, underwriters will get the biggest gains. For debt and equity underwriters, he estimated bonus increases of 25% to 35% and 20% to 30%, respectively. M&amp;A bankers will have to wait longer for a significant boost and should expect maybe a 5% or 10% uptick this season."Traditionally, the sexiest area would be M&amp;A — the pipeline looks really good, but most of the closing fees would be for 2025," said the founder of Johnson Associates. "The headlines around M&amp;A are really going to be next year's story."

Investment banking has made a multibillion-dollar rebound, but it's too early to pop the Champagne 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US job market is flashing signs that hiring is about to pick up, according to Torsten Slok.</li><li>The Apollo chief economist said strong spending should boost the job market. </li></ul>The US labor market is due for a rebound, with hiring poised to pick up as soon as this month, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist, Torsten Slok.In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. His outlook is largely tied to increased spending, which should fuel economic growth spur more hiring, he said."It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. "With the data for consumer spending, capex spending, and government spending still strong, we should soon begin to see a rebound in nonfarm payrolls and a decline in the unemployment rate."The<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-recession-2024-9"> US added 142,000 jobs in September</a>, lower than the 164,000 jobs economists expected.However, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-retail-sales-consumers-outlook-fed-rate-cut-2024-9?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook">Retail sales unexpectedly rose</a> in August, while capital expenditures across all sectors <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA895050005Q">rose to $8.2 trillion</a> last quarter, according to Fed data.Slok pointed to four data points that suggest hiring is bound to rev up:<h3 id="480919d0-24d4-44a3-bc22-684afad53ab4">1. Jobless claims are falling</h3>Jobless claims slumped to 219,000 the last week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the historical relationship between jobless claims and new jobs added, that suggests the economy could see as many as 300,000 jobs added in September, Slok predicted, more than doubling the prior month's gains.<div type="image" title="Graph projecting job gains in September 2024" height="939" width="1419" msid="113609600" hostid="261" sizebytes="58020"></div><h3 id="41ffd7bf-26c3-4b4d-8b86-280e1af5a4f3">2. GDP is rising</h3>The economy continues to grow, which is good news for the labor outlook. GDP is expected to grow 2.9% this quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed's latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">GDPNow reading</a>, about the same pace recorded during the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-us-economy-2024-7">second quarter</a>.If GDP does grow at that pace, the economy could be on track to create 240,000 jobs per month over the third quarter, Slok estimated, given the historical relationship between GDP and nonfarm payrolls."In other words, we could see a sharp rebound in job growth in September from the low levels we saw in July and August," he added.<div type="image" title="Graph projecting job gains in September 2024" height="933" width="1399" msid="113609597" hostid="261" sizebytes="47312"></div><h3 id="893b9545-4546-4b7e-b5e5-ef2ba7b4026e">3. Layoffs have been falling</h3>Firms have been easing up on layoffs. That's a positive sign for the job market, given that firings are the leading indicator of a coming downturn, Slok said, citing a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href=" https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/institute-working-papers/quits-layoffs-and-labor-supply">Fed paper</a> that examined layoffs in the business cycle.Layoff announcements surged during the month of August, but firms had backed away from job cuts over the four preceding months, according to data from the consultancy Challenger, Gray, &amp; Christmas. Since the start of the year, companies have announced 536,421 job cuts, a 3% decline compared to job cuts announced in the same period last year.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR">quits rate</a>, meanwhile, ticked higher in July, signaling more confidence among workers."During recessions, quits decline as layoffs increase. But this is not what the latest data for layoffs and quits to non-participation show," he added.<div type="image" title="Graph showing announced job cuts" height="1180" width="2706" msid="113609601" hostid="261" sizebytes="44244"></div><h3 id="08141bd5-31d7-45de-b501-11ac3db72c16">4. Mortgage rates are coming down</h3>Mortgage rates have been on the downtrend this year, with the 30-year fixed rate easing to 6.09% the last week, according to Freddie Mac data. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said."With financial conditions easing further because of the 50bps Fed cut and still strong tailwinds to economic growth from the CHIPS Act, the IRA, the Infrastructure Act, strong AI spending, and strong defense spending, the bottom line is that there are no signs of the economy entering a recession," Slok wrote. "In particular jobless claims and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now, are pointing to a reacceleration in employment growth over the coming months," he later added.The outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes. David Rosenberg, one economist who's been calling for a recession for months, predicted the economy could start <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-layoffs-recession-employers-firing-workers-economy-david-rosenberg-2024-8">losing jobs by the end of the year</a>, sending the unemployment rate past 5%.

The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose Monday as investors rebounded from the year's worst weekly decline.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 fell over 4% last week after the August jobs report missed estimates.</li></ul>US stocks traded higher on Monday as investors attempted to rebound <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-worst-week-august-jobs-report-recession-fears-2024-9">from the worst weekly decline of the year.</a>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> dropped more than 4% last week, its worst weekly loss since March 2023, after the August jobs report failed to meet economist estimates.Looking ahead, investors will be focused on new inflation data, with the consumer price index report for August set to be released Wednesday morning.Average economist estimates suggest prices rose 2.6% year-over-year last month, a sizable drop from the 2.9% reading seen in July.According to Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn, a light CPI reading could help determine how much the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week.If CPI comes in at 2.6%, it would represent the lowest inflation reading since March 2021, and it would afford the Fed more flexibility to focus more on supporting employment growth than worrying about inflation."The disinflation process has stalled in recent months but if forecasts are right, the August drop could see expectations lean closer to a 50 basis point cut throughout this week, possibly giving risk assets another leg higher," Hathorn said in an email to Business Insider.The CME FedWatch Tool currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week, with just a 25% chance for a 50 basis point cut.Investors will also turn their attention to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-prediction-iphone-16-event-next-week-surprise-2024-9">Apple's iPhone 16 launch announcement</a> scheduled for later this afternoon, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidential-debate-preview-2024-9">Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump</a> on Tuesday evening, and the release of initial jobless claims Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,456.53, up 0.89% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,614.38, up 0.67% (_268.97 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,885.81, up 1.17% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Here's why the presidential race between Trump and Harris remains a virtual dead heat.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-major-flaw-7-trillion-cash-bull-thesis-2024-9">There's a major flaw in the stock market's most bullish thesis.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aging-world-population-stock-market-risk-jpmorgan-returns-valuations-growth-2024-9">A shrinking world population is bad news for the stock market, according to JPMorgan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-us-cities-metros-housing-market-home-prices-texas-florida-2024-9">Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities, according to data from Realtor.com.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 0.37% to $67.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 0.31% to $71.28 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.38% to $2,534.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 2 basis points at 3.732%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.93% to $55,389.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise as traders try to rebound after worst week of the year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rebounded Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining over 1% after last week's losses.</li><li>Investors are optimistic ahead of key inflation data to be released on Wednesday. </li></ul>US stocks staged a rebound on Monday from last week's painful losses.The S&amp;P 500 gained just over 1%, recouping about a quarter of its 4% decline last week.Investors pushed stocks higher ahead of key inflation data this week.The consumer price index report for August will be released Wednesday morning. Average economist estimates suggest prices rose 2.6% year-over-year last month, a sizable drop from the 2.9% reading seen in July.According to Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn, a light CPI reading could help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its policy meeting next week."The disinflation process has stalled in recent months but if forecasts are right, the August drop could see expectations lean closer to a 50 basis point cut throughout this week, possibly giving risk assets another leg higher," Hathorn said in an email.The CME FedWatch Tool shows investors expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week, with just a 25% chance for a 50 basis point cut.The CPI data will be followed by the producer price index on Thursday morning, which market veteran Louis Navellier believes will help push yields lower."With the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rising at only a 1.7% annual pace in the past three months, I am expecting favorable CPI and PPI data to further help drive Treasury yields lower," Navellier said in a Monday note.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,471.05, up 1.16% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,829.59, up 1.2% (+484.18 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,884.60, up 1.16% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-event-iphone-16-announcement-live-updates-2024-9">Apple unveiled several new products on Monday with AI-focused features, including the Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4, and iPhone 16.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Here's why the presidential race between Trump and Harris remains a virtual dead heat.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-major-flaw-7-trillion-cash-bull-thesis-2024-9">There's a major flaw in the stock market's most bullish thesis.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aging-world-population-stock-market-risk-jpmorgan-returns-valuations-growth-2024-9">A shrinking world population is bad news for the stock market, according to JPMorgan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-us-cities-metros-housing-market-home-prices-texas-florida-2024-9">Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities, according to data from Realtor.com.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-stock-price-soars-ai-company-added-sp500-index-pltr-2024-9">Palantir soared as much as 14% on Monday after it was revealed the company would be added to the S&amp;P 500 later this month.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 1.37% to $68.60 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 0.93% to $71.72 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.39% to $2,534.50 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 1 basis point to 3.703%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 4.13% to $57,144.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow jumps 484 points as US stocks rebound ahead of key inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This month's sell-off was "a warning shot," Goldman's head of asset allocation research said.</li><li>He said it's concerning how fast the market has recovered.</li></ul>The stock market was quick to recover after a brutal sell-off earlier this month — and that's a reason to be cautious, according to Goldman Sachs's head of asset allocation research."What's concerning now is how quickly the market has gone back to where we were before, and we can discuss that, but certainly that shows that we are sadly nearly back to the same problem we were at a month ago," Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in an appearance on CNBC on Wednesday. He called the sell-off "a bit like a warning shot," indicating the possibility for more volatility ahead.The S&amp;P 500 lost 3% on August 5, its biggest daily drop since 2022 amid an unwinding of the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-carry-trade-yen-boj-interest-rates-selloff-2024-8?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">yen carry trade</a> and worries of a US recession sparked by a weak July jobs report. The market quickly pared those losses, however. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen more than 6% and the S&amp;P 500 has climbed 8% since the sell-off, fueled by investors' confidence in a September rate cut and positive economic data that revived hopes for the economy to stick a soft landing. But Mueller-Glissmann says investors shouldn't be so quick to let their guard down."Going into this, you had like one or two months where positioning and sentiment was at the upper end of the range. People were bullish," Mueller-Glissmann said.At the time, he worried about the possibility of a correction because of weak macro momentum."You had negative US macro surprises for one and a half months before that, and you actually started to see Europe and China macro surprises turn negative as well," he said.Now, the market seems to have rebounded, which Mueller-Glissmann says is understating risk, even if the sell-off on August 5 was "obviously a huge technical overreaction."He says that while the market has bounced back, investor sentiment hasn't."What I would say is, the good news is while the S&amp;P is back to where we were before, the complacency isn't. We're not at the same kind of extreme bullish sentiment and positioning," he said.Other commentators have also noted that the sell-off may have been just a taste of more volatility to come. Shortly after the market clawed back its losses, JPMorgan analysts said the rout was a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-economic-growth-yen-carry-trade-2024-8">'dress rehearsal' for what's to come</a> amid growth concerns, while LPL Financial's chief equity strategist says to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pullback-correction-slowing-economy-buy-the-dip-lpl-2024-8">expect a double-digit S&amp;P 500 decline</a> in the next few weeks.

The quick rebound after this month's brutal stock-market rout is a cause for concern, Goldman says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks jumped on Tuesday, rebounding from Monday's sharp decline.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 1%, driven by investor fears of a potential recession subsiding.</li></ul>Investors were whiplashed Tuesday as stocks rebounded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-picks-up-recession-fears-carry-trade-unwind-2024-8">following Monday's sharp decline.</a>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 jumped about 1% in Tuesday's trading session, as investors grappled with whether <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-carry-trade-yen-boj-interest-rates-selloff-2024-8">the unwind of the yen carry trade was a short-term technical factor.</a>Concerns of an imminent recession following the trigger of the Sahm Rule last week <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-unemployment-federal-reserve-interest-rates-cut-2024-8">were dismissed by the inventor of the rule,</a> former Fed official Claudia Sahm, who told Business Insider that the surge in the unemployment rate is being driven by an increase in labor supply rather than a decrease in labor demand."The US economy is still growing. We are still adding jobs. We are spending even after inflation," Sahm said.Meanwhile, Wall Street strategists said that the current decline in the stock market, with the S&amp;P 500 being down about 8% since its July record on Monday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bear-decline-unlikely-only-3-signals-flash-2024-8">is completely normal.</a>"While such sharp declines in equity prices are concerning, looking back at historic data on the S&amp;P 500 index reminds us that dips, pullbacks and corrections of 10% or more are a normal and healthy part of any bull market. On average, stocks experience a pullback of over 5% over three times per year and a correction of 10% or more around once per year — even in positive years," LPL portfolio strategist George Smith said.The CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, plunged 29% on Tuesday. That decline signals that investors are using the past week's stock market decline as an opportunity to buy stocks.The gains on Tuesday were broad-based, with four sectors printing gains of about 2% or more. Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/META-stock">Meta Platforms</a> surged about 4%, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/lly-stock">Eli Lilly</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/brk-b-stock">Berkshire Hathaway</a> jumped about 2%.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> CEO David Solomon swatted down the idea of emergency interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as he doesn't see an imminent recession on the table."I don't expect that you'll see anything before September," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-06/solomon-says-fed-will-forgo-emergency-cut-despite-weak-jobs-data">Solomon said of a Fed interest rate cut.</a> "The economy will chug along and we probably won't see a recession."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,240.03, 1.04% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,997.66, up 0.76% (+294.39 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,366.85, up 1.03% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bear-decline-unlikely-only-3-signals-flash-2024-8">Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said the S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to enter a bear market anytime soon.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buy-defensive-stocks-to-weather-historic-stock-market-volatility-bofa-2024-8">These are the sectors and stocks investors should consider buying during the current stock market volatility, according to BofA.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-emergency-cut-economy-el-erian-2024-8">Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said an emergency interest rate cut from the Fed would be a mistake.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-respond-kamala-harris-selects-tim-walz-vp-2024-8">Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming Presidential election.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.33% to $73.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, increased 0.21% to $76.46 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 0.65% to $2,428.40 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 3.89%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> jumped 4.80% to $56,626.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes jump as traders try to rebound from Monday's losses

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are rebounding after Monday's meltdown triggered by Japan's interest-rate hike.</li><li>The market volatility will challenge the Fed and BOJ's rate-hike decisions going forward.</li></ul>Markets are rebounding after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/markets-japan-rate-hike-yen-fx-carry-trade-stock-futures-2024-8">Monday's meltdown,</a> injecting challenges into central banks' interest-rate decisions.In Japan, the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> index bounced back spectacularly on Tuesday, gaining as much as 11% in early trade — and regaining nearly all its losses after closing 12.4% lower on Monday.Meanwhile, South Korea's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">Kospi</a> gained as much as 5.6%, and Taiwan's Taiex jumped nearly 5% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-asia-nikkei-kospi-taiex-asx-recent-lows-2024-8">after marking new lows on Monday.</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">US stock futures</a> are also higher on Tuesday after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-picks-up-recession-fears-carry-trade-unwind-2024-8">plunging</a> on Monday.As Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at trading platform Capital.com, told Business Insider: "It's wild out there at the moment."The market volatility is due to a mix of factors including poor earnings results from several tech giants and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">a weak July payroll report</a>. It's also in part due to the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates to their highest levels in 15 years, sending the Japanese yen up and unraveling a series of global carry trades across regions and time zones.<h2 id="f3577960-8c74-4ddd-afa6-8a4f86b2677c">Central banks are in a bind</h2>The market turmoil has put the BOJ and the US Federal Reserve in tight spots, with analysts and investors questioning the two central banks' timing on interest rate decisions.As it is, the BOJ's rate hike — which sparked the market rout — has put the central bank's move under <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/boj-under-fire-for-rate-hike-timing-after-japan-market-meltdown">intense scrutiny and criticism.</a>Some analysts are speculating that the BOJ rate cut was because it was under political pressure to shore up the floundering yen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/boj-under-fire-for-rate-hike-timing-after-japan-market-meltdown">Bloomberg</a> reported on Monday.As Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's chief economist of Asia excluding Japan, wrote in a note on Monday, the BOJ is "complicit" in triggering the risk-off trades.Going forward, the BOJ could have a harder time with the timing of its rate hike decisions. It may also struggle to "credibly backtrack on hawkish guidance that has flown out of control," wrote Varathan, referring to the market rout.Japan's finance ministry, the BOJ, and the country's financial regulator are meeting on Tuesday to discuss market volatility and the yen's movement, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA063S00W4A800C2000000/">Nikkei.</a>Japan's Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency, and Bank of Japan will host a senior officials' meeting from 3:00 p.m. to discuss international financial markets, the finance ministry said on Tuesday.<h2 id="457d8920-3a77-4681-a191-45c2368a6506">Talks of an emergency rate cut</h2>The market selloff has also made the Fed's rate hike timing harder.Investors were already jittery due to a weak <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">US July jobs report </a>that came after the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-likely-september-federal-reserve-holds-steady-july-2024-7">Fed's decision last week</a> to stand pat on rates for the eighth straight time.Now, the market meltdown is throwing a spanner into whether the Fed would be to able to engineer a soft landing for the US economy.Markets now fear that the Fed's "higher for longer" stance on interest rates is on shaky ground and that the central bank is "inadvertently heading for 'too high for too long' policy mistake," wrote Varathan.There are even talks of a Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-economy-job-market-interest-rates-2024-8">emergency rate cut</a> now that's being priced into the market.However, the Fed must strike a "delicate balance to make that distinction between timely and panicked cuts," wrote Varathan.Capital.com's Rodda said talks of a rate cut seem premature as it appears to be stress and volatility in the stock and currency markets."I think the only justification for an emergency meeting is if we see major market dysfunction in funding or treasury markets, which we haven't seen at all, or a total collapse in the labour market, which would probably have to occur because of a major external shock," he said. "Neither has occurred, at least yet."

Markets are rebounding after Monday's massive meltdown, making rate decisions harder for the Fed

<keyword id="19900617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-markets" source="keywords">Stock markets</keyword> rebounded from early lows to close higher on Friday, snapping the four-day losing streak on heavy value buying in banking and auto shares. The 30-share BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> climbed 599.34 points or 0.83 per cent to settle at 73,088.33. The index opened lower and tanked further 672.53 points or 0.92 per cent to hit a low of 71,816.46 in early trade. However, the index rebounded in the second half on value-buying in banking shares. The NSE <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> jumped 151.15 points or 0.69 per cent to close at 22,147. The broader index dropped to a low of 21,777.65 in early trade before paring its losses to end in the green. From the Sensex basket, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, HDFC Bank, JSW Steel, Maruti, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, <keyword id="19950210" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bajaj-finserv" source="keywords">Bajaj Finserv</keyword>, ICICI Bank and ITC were the major gainers. Nestle India, HCL Technologies, Larsen &amp; Toubro, Tata Consultancy Services, <keyword id="19906967" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-motors" source="keywords">Tata Motors</keyword> and Infosys were among the laggards. Infosys declined nearly 1 per cent after the company's revenue growth guidance for FY25 failed to meet market expectations. In Asian markets, Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong settled in the negative territory. European markets were trading in the red. Wall Street ended mostly lower on Thursday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.55 per cent to USD 87.62 a barrel. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 4,260.33 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data. "Despite global weakness, Indian markets staged a strong recovery driven by large-cap stocks, buoyed by the expectation of limited prospects of escalation following Israel's action against Iran. However, fragility persists with elevated oil prices, posing <keyword id="20993332" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-risks" source="keywords">inflation risks</keyword>," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. Meanwhile, the 2024 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> polls kicked off on Friday with the beginning of polling for the first phase. The BSE benchmark tanked 454.69 points or 0.62 per cent to settle at 72,488.99 on Thursday. The NSE Nifty declined 152.05 points or 0.69 per cent to 21,995.85.

Stock markets stage strong rebound after 4 days of slump; Sensex rallies 599 pts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rallied after a three-day skid following encouraging new inflation data.</li><li>The data boosted hopes that the Fed will start cutting interest rates by September.</li></ul>US stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses.The bounce back follows June's personal consumption expenditures index, which mostly aligned with expectations and showed a moderate rise in consumer prices. Headline PCE rose 0.2% from May and 2.6% year-to-year.The print helped bolster market convictions that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September.According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, traders no longer expect rates to remain the same that month. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut."Across most key categories, particularly housing inflation, the positive disinflationary momentum continues," Fitch Rating's head of US economic research Olu Sonola said. He added: "With one eye on recent labor market developments, the Fed is now likely to use the meeting next week to set the stage for a September rate cut."These reinforced outlooks caused the Nasdaq 100 and S&amp;P 500 to rise. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.Treasury yields dipped Friday morning.Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,444.60, up 0.8%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,494.55, up 1.4% (559 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,284.29, up 0.6%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-outlook-forecast-interest-rate-cuts-sahm-rule-unemployment-2024-7">Cutting interest rates now to stop a recession may already be too late</a>, former Fed president says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-job-market-layoffs-unemployment-rate-hiring-economy-2024-7">US labor has come close to a 'danger zone,'</a> Claudia Sahm says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-august-small-caps-rate-cuts-tom-lee-2024-7">Small caps will surge 15% next month alone</a>, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-market-hurting-home-appliance-sales-whirlpool-real-estate-2024-7">Weak housing market activity is weighing down on big-ticket housing appliances</a>, Whirlpool says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil slid 0.51% to $77.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was down 0.64% to $81.84 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> gained 0.58% to $2,378.5 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell three basis points to 4.218%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin </a>rose 2.20% to $67,245.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes rebound as inflation data reinforces Fed rate-cut bets

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tech sector drove US stocks higher on Monday ahead of key economic data releases this week.</li><li>The Nasdaq 100 and S&amp;P 500 both rose over 1%, reversing some of last week's sharp decline.</li></ul>US stocks surged on Monday, with technology stocks leading the way as investors brace for a slew of earnings results and economic data.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> were both up more than 1%, helping reverse some of last week's painful decline, which was the worst weekly decline since April.Investors will be focused on two big economic data points this week, as well as a steady flow of second-quarter earnings results.Second-quarter GDP data will be released Thursday morning, with economists expecting growth of 1.9%.That will be followed by the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. Economists expect the June Core PCE index to rise 2.5% year over year, which is not far off from the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2%.On the earnings front, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q2-earnings-report-preview-expectations-tsla-stock-price-robotaxi-2024-7">investors will get results from Tesla</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock?miRedirects=1">Alphabet</a> after the market close on Tuesday. Other companies reporting results this week include <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/v-stock?miRedirects=1">Visa</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/txn-stock?miRedirects=1">Texas Instruments</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/cmg-stock?miRedirects=1">Chipotle</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ko-stock?miRedirects=1">Coca-Cola</a>.So far, 14% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported second-quarter results. Of those, 86% have beaten profit estimates by a median of 4%, while 62% have beaten revenue estimates by a median of 3%, according to data from Fundstrat.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,564.41, up 1.08%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,415.44, up 0.32% (+127 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,007.57, up 1.58%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-valuation-signal-flashes-warning-market-cap-gdp-ratio-2024-7">Warren Buffett's favorite valuation indicator just hit a record high, flashing warning signs for future stock market returns.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/ether-price-etfs-launch-outlook-crypto-bitcoin-rally-ethereum-2024-7">Get ready for a flood of ether ETFs to hit the market. Here's how Wall Street is bracing for impact.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-home-prices-correction-housing-market-buying-a-house-2024-7">The housing market is close to flashing a rare buying opportunity with prices set to drop in pandemic boom towns.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/broadcom-vs-nvidia-ai-stock-investor-sentiment-citi-chips-avgo-2024-7">Investor sentiment towards Broadcom is beginning to heat up, according to a note from Citi.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-semiconductor-chip-advanced-tech-exports-us-sanctions-china-2024-7">US sanctions have tanked Russian semi-chip imports from China and Hong Kong.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-interest-rate-cuts-demand-consumer-sentiment-plenum-2024-7">China slashed interest rates in a surprise move to boost its slumping economy.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down 0.39% to $78.33 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, declined 0.34% to $82.35 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was flat at $2,399.20 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield increased one basis point to 4.25%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.01% to $68,183.</li></ul>

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