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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped Thursday as traders focused on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>Powell said the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and reiterated the strength of the US economy.</li></ul>Indexes ended lower on Thursday, with the election rally fizzling out as traders digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assessed the latest inflation data. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 200 points. The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, remained nearly flat at 4.447%, hovering close to its highest level since July.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,949.17, down 0.6% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,750.86, down 0.47% (-207.33 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,107.65, down 0.64%</li></ul>The slide comes after Powell signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates while the US economy remains on solid footing. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said during prepared remarks at an event in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."Powell added the US has had the best domestic growth of any major economy, and emphasized the strength of the labor market. He said the October jobs report's slowing job growth was largely due to storm-related damage.Powell's comments come as investors seek hints of the Fed's intended easing path after a 25 basis point cut last week. Trump's election win has sparked worries that inflation could rise again under his proposals for broad tariffs and mass deportations, which could cause the Fed to pause rate hikes, economists say.Traders expect the central bank to cut another 25 basis points at its December meeting before pausing in January, according to the CME <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch tool</a>.Powell's comments also follow the latest inflation reading which shows wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The data was in line with expectations but showed inflation remains somewhat sticky, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% year-over-year.Meanwhile, jobless claims data on Thursday, showed weekly claims dropped to their lowest since May, falling to 217,000 last week. That marks a 4,000 decline from the week prior.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Investors are underestimating how deep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/electric-vehicle-stocks-trump-end-ev-tax-credit-tesla-rivian-2024-11?_gl=1*1794use*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjM3LjIyLjAuMA..">EV makers slid</a> on report Trump wants to scrap the EV tax credit.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/disney-stock-price-3q-earnings-streaming-profit-guidance-cruise-parks-2024-11?_gl=1*6r1dtf*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjUxLjguMC4w">Disney stock surged</a> as rare three-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.3% to $68.63 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.3% to $72.48 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose fell 0.5% to $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury was nearly flat at 4.447%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was down 1.4% to $87,531. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve announced it's pausing interest-rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting.</li><li>This comes after 10 consecutive interest-rate increases in 15 months.</li></ul>The nation's central bank has come one step closer to curbing its war on inflation, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike-pause-decision-inflation-2023-6">continues to cool</a>.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20230614a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced it's holding interest rates steady</a> at its Wednesday meeting, putting a pause on the central bank's 10 consecutive increases in 15 months. This leaves the target benchmark borrowing rate between 5% and 5.25%."In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments," the Fed announced.Fed chairman Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment in the press conference."We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening and demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, especially housing and investment," Powell said. "It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation."The Fed's decision also comes with the projection of another two 25-basis-point rate hikes before the end of 2023, which would bring the benchmark rate to between 5.5% and 5.75%.Powell noted that rate cuts are still "a couple of years out," despite some speculation that interest rates could begun lowering by January 2024.Current markets betting on the central bank's future rate plans suggest there is about a 60% chance the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">according to the CME FedWatch Tool</a>.The Fed's decision is another step in its attempt to strike a balance between slowing the economy to a point where inflation is back to its target while going at a pace that won't disturb growth, which could lead to widespread job loss. Tight monetary policy, inflation well above the 2% target, and a low unemployment rate have all made this balance difficult to achieve, especially with the threat of a recession still lingering.Some market observers believe this could be just a temporary pause as the Fed takes in more information about the state of the economy. Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in an email to Insider that despite a June Consumer Price Index report that was "simply not hot enough" to change the Fed's decision to pause its hiking cycle, "stubbornly elevated" inflation has kept prospects for an additional hike in July "very much alive.""The ongoing strength of the labor market, coupled with the stickiness of core inflation, means that the FOMC meeting will likely represent a 'skip' rather than a 'pause,'" said Shah. "Without a meaningful downside surprise in both jobs and inflation, a final interest-rate hike remains in the cards for July."Thomas Simons, a senior economist at Jefferies, told Insider he feels that rate hikes are done for the year as the Fed looks to close in on bringing inflation back to the 2% target. As consumer spending slows, the resumption of student-loan payments in September suggests even more signs of a slowdown, he said. The June pause, he said, could give the Fed more time to see if the slowing is part of a larger downtrend."Inflation may remain sticky for a while, but the slowdown in spending will translate into labor-market weakness that keeps the Fed on the sidelines," Simons said. "We are seeing 'goldilocks,' 'soft landing' data right now, but I do not think it will last."As inflation levels hit their lowest point since 2021, Simons said he expects inflation to continue slowing but at a "dissatisfying rate." He said a major risk to the economy could be an acceleration of inflation, which could potentially drive more interest-rate hikes and disrupt the slow but steady easing of inflation.Following the failures of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-bank-failure-long-term-impact-tech-vc-finance-2023-3" rel="">Silicon Valley Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/first-republic-bank-taken-jpmorgan-fdic-fails-find-buyer-2023-5" rel="">First Republic Bank</a>, credit conditions tightened, in part pushing the Fed to skip this month's rate hike amid a lending pullback."The regional bank crisis is a wild card," Marta Norton, the chief investment officer for Morningstar Wealth's America division, told Insider. "While government programs have likely stabilized deposits and early failures are more likely the result of individual mismanagement and not a larger systematic risk, the savings &amp; loan crisis, which lasted for years, showcases the uncertainty of these businesses at markedly higher interest rate levels."<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-price-index-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates-may-2023-6">Consumer Price Index data from Tuesday</a> reveals the consumer is still feeling cost pressures even as inflation cools. Core CPI — excluding food and energy, which are more volatile — has been sticky, rising 0.4% from April to May, driven in part by a 0.4% jump in shelter prices over the same period. Used-vehicle prices were up 4.4% in May, while transportation services rose 0.8% for the month.The CPI overall showed decelerating headline inflation, dropping from 4.9% last month to 4% in May, the lowest level since March 2021.Kathy Gramling, a consumer markets leader at EY Americas, told Insider that the recent CPI data and the Fed decision will give consumers a bump of confidence going into the summer as Americans tap into credit and embrace more practical shopping. EY's <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/news/2023/05/ey-future-consumer-index-consumers-losing-trust-and-turning-away-from-brands-amid-cost-of-living-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May Future Consumer Index</a>, which surveyed 21,000 respondents from over two dozen countries between March and April, found that 94% of consumer respondents remain concerned about rising living costs, with 49% planning to spend only on essential products. Sixty-seven percent said they expect to be more aware and cautious of spending in three years."I think consumers will feel another level of confidence and reassurance if the Fed takes a pause this week," Gramling said. "That will continue to see the consumer spend their way through the summer, and as we know, American consumers are always good at that."The Fed isn't seeing a slowdown in line with expectations for inflation to fall to pre-pandemic levels, and this underscores how the market's expectations have repeatedly been behind the curve, said Norton of Morningstar Wealth. Norton estimates the lag on Fed policy is approximately 12 to 24 months, and noted that there's still a long way to go for inflation to fall to more acceptable levels.US <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation on the wholesale level cooled below expectations</a>, according to Producer Price Index (PPI) data released Wednesday. For the 12 months ended in May, annual producer-price increases eased to 1.1%, well below expectations of 1.5%, making this the 11th consecutive month this metric has slowed. Prices fell 0.3% from April to May.

The Federal Reserve paused its interest-rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Since 1988, the final Fed rate hike has been followed by increases in the price of Brent crude three months later.</li><li>In those instances, oil has returned 9% on average, according to a note from JPMorgan.</li></ul>Oil prices are poised to rally soon as the Federal Reserve is expected to pause its rate hikes, analysts at JPMorgan said.Since 1988, the final increase in a tightening cycle has been followed by increases in the price of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a> three months later, returning on average 9%, according to a recent note.JPMorgan predicts Brent will rise to $94 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up 9.5% from current levels."The main takeaway for now: if the Fed pauses its rate-hiking campaign soon, the most likely scenario is that oil performs well," analysts said.Markets expect the Fed to raise rates one more time in May, lifting them by another 25 basis points to a target range of 5%-5.25%, according to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CME FedWatch tool</a>. But after that, no further hikes are seen.To be sure, oil eventually turned negative after Fed pauses in 2000, 2006 and 2018 were followed by recessions, JPMorgan pointed out. "However, if the US sees only a mild recession or lands softly, a new bull market may have already started forming," the note added.JPMorgan predicts such a recession to show up at the end of 2023, or in 2024. And as inflation could stick around 4% this year, the Fed is unlikely to cut its rates.But analysts expect demand for oil to stay resilient as the need for transportation fuel remains elevated and US commercial crude inventories are starting to shift downwards. Others on Wall Street are less worry about a major recession as well, with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink crediting the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-outlook-prediction-inflation-sticky-economy-blackrock-larry-fink-fed-2023-4">large amount of federal stimulus</a> as enough to rule out a hard landing.

Prepare for oil to rally as the Fed gets set to pause its rate hikes, JPMorgan says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suspects the Fed may not be done hiking rates, per Yahoo.</li><li>On Wednesday, the Fed said it would hold federal funds at rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range.</li></ul>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-november-fed-decision-no-increase-cut-inflation-powell-2023-11">US Federal Reserve</a> just left interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row — but it may not be done yet with monetary tightening, said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday. "I think they're right to pause here and see what happens," Dimon told <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-suspects-fed-may-not-be-done-raising-rates-amid-stickier-inflation-232020859.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yahoo Finance Live</a> just hours after the central bank's decision. But "I suspect that they may not be done," he added.On Wednesday, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20231101a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Fe</a>d said it would hold the federal funds rate steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. It paused interest-rate hikes in September as well, giving some relief to American borrowers.After all, the Fed has already <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised interest rates</a> 11 times since early 2022 to tame soaring inflation, making the cost of borrowing for anything from mortgages to credit cards more expensive.But Dimon told Yahoo there are still chances for the US monetary authority to raise benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to 0.75 percentage point."I just think there's a higher chance than probably other people think," he added.The top executive's assessment of the Fed's next steps appears to be based on the inflation rate, which in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-economic-outlook-cpi-consumer-price-index-september-data-report-2023-10">September</a> came in at 3.7% on an annual basis. Although higher than the Fed's inflation target of 2%, that was unchanged from August and far lower than the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-economic-outlook-cpi-consumer-price-index-september-data-report-2023-10">40-year peak</a> of 9.1% reached in mid-2022.The US economy is in a strong position with third-quarter <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-recession-outlook-economy-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDP growth coming in at a two-year high</a> of 4.9%. America's unemployment rate also held steady in September and the country even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-unemployment-rate-labor-market-september-report-2023-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">added 336,000 jobs</a> in the same month. Strong <a href="https://europe.pimco.com/en-eu/resources/education/understanding-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic growth</a> typically fuels inflation."I think there's a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think and their fiscal and monetary stimulus in the last several years is more than people think. Unemployment is very low," Dimon added.Dimon acknowledged that JPMorgan is concerned about the high rates but is ready for long-term rates to stay elevated."We stress for it," he told Yahoo.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he suspects the Fed isn't done with interest-rate hikes, just hours after Powell hit pause again

In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, <keyword id="50847" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="Orion">Reserve Bank</keyword> Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> opined while voting along with five other members of the <keyword id="6369693" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="mpc" source="Orion">MPC</keyword> for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranches. "I am...of the view that a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error at this juncture. Given the uncertain outlook, it may engender a situation where we may find ourselves striving to do a catch-up through stronger policy actions in the subsequent meetings to ward off accentuated inflationary pressures," said the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The meeting was held during December 5-7. The Governor also said that in a tightening cycle, especially in a world of high uncertainty, giving out explicit forward guidance on the future path of monetary policy would be counterproductive. This may result in the market and its participants overshooting the actual play out of real conditions, he opined. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/credit-growth-far-away-from-being-considered-as-exuberant-says-rbi-governor-das/articleshow/96401523.cms">Credit growth far away from being considered as 'exuberant', says RBI Governor Das</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/rbi-governor-das-on-history-major-taunt-was-messi-also-a-post-graduate-in-history/articleshow/96395995.cms">RBI Governor Das on 'history major' taunt: Was Messi also a post-graduate in history?</a>

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Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

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The Federal Reserve paused its interest-rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases

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Prepare for oil to rally as the Fed gets set to pause its rate hikes, JPMorgan says

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he suspects the Fed isn't done with interest-rate hikes, just hours after Powell hit pause again

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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das against pause in rate hikes: MPC minutes

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