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India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Russian court fined Google for not restoring YouTube accounts linked to Russian TV channels.</li><li>The fine is about $20.6 decillion — a figure many orders of magnitude beyond the world's GDP.</li></ul>A legal dispute between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/google">Google</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/russia">Russia</a> over suspended YouTube accounts has led to a fine so large that it exceeds all the money on Earth.Ivan Morozov, a Moscow-based lawyer, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.ru/ekonomika/22263289">told the state-run TASS newswire</a> that a Russian court ordered the tech giant to restore Russian media accounts on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/youtube">YouTube</a>, a Google-owned company.He said that Google's failure to do so has resulted in a fine that had been regularly doubling for years.There is no cap on the total, the lawyer said.Morozov, who did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, said that the cumulative amount has now reached 2 undecillion rubles — an almost unfathomable figure.At the current exchange rate, the fine is equivalent to about $20.6 decillion.A decillion is a figure followed by 33 zeros — which in this case puts the fine at $20,604,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.To put this into perspective, the world's GDP is equivalent to about $105 trillion, a minuscule fraction of the fine.It's improbable that Google could or would pay such an amount, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/29/10/2024/671fd2389a794726b01d3af3">RBK</a>, a Russian business-media outlet, says relates to legal claims brought by more than a dozen <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-tv-is-one-of-putins-greatest-weapons-amid-the-war-in-ukraine-2022-6">Russian TV channels</a> about the suspension of YouTube accounts.According to court filings <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/google-faces-huge-fines-in-russia-as-putin-ally-wins-lawsuit">reviewed by Bloomberg in 2021</a>, Google suspended the accounts to comply with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-west-sanction-russia-artillery-war-machine-experts-2024-10">US sanctions.</a>Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BI in a message that the size of the fine is "clearly insane" and "absurd.""So even if Google gave Russia everything the world produced this year, every day since the universe began, it would only have paid about 3% of this fine," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Nigelgd1/status/1851404815533854948">Gould-Davies wrote on X</a>.He likened it to "putting a dead person on trial" — apt since Google has no active presence in Russia, and little by way of assets to claim.In 2022, Google's Russian legal arm, Google LLC, filed for bankruptcy, and authorities seized its bank accounts, though free services continue to operate in the country.Google's parent company, Alphabet, doesn't seem to think it will have a material impact.It has regularly referred to the cases in its quarterly earnings reports. Business Insider found the first mention in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abc.xyz/assets/fa/0e/606be5234d8c895e5e167d38811f/20220427-alphabet-10q.pdf">Q1 of 2022</a>.In its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">Q3 2024 earnings report</a>, released Tuesday, Alphabet wrote of "ongoing legal matters" relating to Russia.It referred to civil judgments that include "compounding penalties" levied "in connection with disputes regarding the termination of accounts," including those of people on sanctions lists."We do not believe these ongoing legal matters will have a material adverse effect," the report said — an assessment in line with prior reports.Google has not responded to a request for comment from BI.

A Russian court hit Google with a fine larger than the world's GDP, stretching credulity

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 28 (<keyword id="19904948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ani" source="keywords">ANI</keyword>): The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has released its analysis projecting the GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2023-24. According to their report, the GDP growth is likely to be at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23. As per a report by <keyword id="20407500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="keywords">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, the global economic landscape, as outlined in the report, presents a mixed picture with several significant developments impacting the trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, indicating a brighter outlook. However, challenges persist, with countries like the UK and Japan slipping into recession, alongside concerns over the German economy. Additionally, China's marked slowdown, driven by deflationary concerns and declining industrial profits, adds further complexity to the global scenario. In contrast, India's domestic economic indicators show signs of resilience and optimism. Consumer confidence has strengthened, supported by positive sentiments regarding the economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also reflect strong business optimism. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, comprising 41 leading indicators across sectors, suggests a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this data, the SBI Economic Research Department estimates GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent. Corporate India continues to exhibit robust performance, driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban and rural areas. Corporate results for Q3FY24 indicate significant growth in <keyword id="20140796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ebidta" source="keywords">EBIDTA</keyword> and PAT (Profit After Tax), with a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, measured by EBIDTA plus employee expenses, recorded strong growth compared to the previous year. The agricultural sector, however, faces some challenges, with a decline in the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the sowing season for Rabi crops suggests a slight increase in overall acreage, concerns arise over the decline in the sown area under cereals. Despite these challenges, the inland fish production has shown rapid growth, reaching 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The fisheries sector's contribution to the national GVA and agricultural GVA indicates potential support for the Agri &amp; Allied sector's growth in FY24. (ANI)

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