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ShutterstockWall Street analysts say the renewable energy industry may be more insulated from a recession than other industries.<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street analysts are warning that the US is teetering on a recession. Some say it's already here. </li><li>No industry is spared, but analysts and investors Business Insider spoke to said that the clean-energy sector may be dealt a softer blow. </li><li>"Anyone in the renewable sector is better than most," one investor said. </li><li>The cost of capital is the primary driver of renewable energy projects. That means low interest rates will spur demand. </li><li>Utility-scale projects are best-insulated, while residential solar companies may face a greater risk.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>The US is teetering on the edge of a recession, Wall Street analysts are warning - with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-recession-already-hit-us-economy-pandemic-bank-america-gdp-2020-3-1029012857">some saying we're already there</a>. "We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession," Bank of America economists led by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-recession-already-hit-us-economy-pandemic-bank-america-gdp-2020-3-1029012857">Michelle Meyer wrote in a note to investors on Thursday</a>. "It is a deep plunge." A recession spares no industries, but four Wall Street analysts and investors that Business Insider talked to said the clean-energy sector - which was the target of more than $360 billion of investment last year, according to the research firm BloombergNEF - might be dealt a relatively soft blow. <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/power-line">Click here to subscribe to Power Line</a>, Business Insider's weekly clean-energy newsletter."Anyone in the renewables sector is better than most," Jigar Shah, the president and cofounder of the investment firm Generate Capital said. "People like this asset class better than any other." <h2>Low interest rates are especially beneficial for renewable energy projects</h2>The price of renewable electricity is largely determined by the upfront cost of construction - what a company charges to build a solar or wind farm, for example.Once those farms are set up, the input is minimal, unlike a natural gas or coal power plant, which require fuel to operate. And that's especially true for solar facilities, says Colin Rusch, an analyst at Oppenheimer &amp; Co., "because there are no moving parts and limited maintenance." With the cost of energy tied to an initial injection of funds, renewable energy projects - like any construction project - stand to benefit from low interest rates that typically accompany a financial crisis. Now, those rates are close to zero. "The cost of capital is the biggest lever in the supply chain for all renewable energy projects," Rusch said. "As we see the cost of capital come down we see increasingly compelling economics for solar projects."Low interest rates make it easier for clean-energy companies to borrow money. And by lowering the upfront cost of power plants, they also lower the cost of the electricity those plants generate. Both forces fuel demand. Natalie Behring/ReutersInnovation is what drives down the cost of renewable energy, Sophie Karp, an analyst at KeyBanc, said.<h2>Other forces will drive down the cost of renewable energy, even within a recession </h2>The cost of electricity that comes from fossil fuels, such as natural gas or coal, is determined by commodity prices, which are volatile and unpredictable, says Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James. Meanwhile, the price of renewable electricity has fallen consistently over the last decade in step with innovation, according to Sophie Karp, an analyst at KeyBanc.Since 2009, for example, the price of solar panels <a href="https://www.irena.org/costs">has fallen by 80%</a>; wind turbine costs have seen similar declines. "There's no reason to believe that the longer-term trend will stop," Karp said.And that's true whether or not the price of oil continues to slip, analysts said. In most parts of the world, oil is not an electricity source, so its cost is not a meaningful benchmark. The last time the price of oil collapsed, starting in 2014, it "didn't affect renewable growth at all," said Angus McCrone, chief editor at BloombergNEF, a clean-energy finance research firm. There's no reason to suspect a different outcome this time around. <h2>Utility-scale projects would be better insulated from a recession </h2>According to Molchanov, large, utility-scale solar and wind projects are "recession resistant" because they're generally managed by developers that have utility contracts. "That has nothing to do with the economy," he said. "Whether GDP is up or down, it makes no difference for a utility investment decision because utilities are regulated businesses."<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-renewable-energy-stocks-could-be-first-to-bounce-back-2020-3">Analysts at JPMorgan also note</a> that utility-scale solar is typically constructed in remote locations, so the spreading coronavirus will be less likely to hamper those projects. Utility-scale developments also have "long deployment cycles," the bank said <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-renewable-energy-stocks-could-be-first-to-bounce-back-2020-3">in a recent research note</a>, which makes them even more resilient to short-term impacts. David GreerApple's 14 megawatt solar array in Maiden, NC<h2>Corporations who buy renewable energy may delay projects</h2>Big companies like Google and Facebook are some of the largest buyers of renewable energy in the world. In 2019, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-clean-energy-firms-sold-most-power-last-year-2020-1">they bought a record 19.6 gigawatts of power</a>, which amounted to 10% of the clean energy added, globally, that year. In a recession scenario, corporations may be inclined to delay purchasing of renewable energy, Jeff Osborne, an analyst at Cowen, said, though he doesn't think that's "lost business." "It's more of a deferral," he said. The cheap price of oil could also shrink clean-energy spending by oil and gas giants, such as BP or Shell, McCrone said. "Oil companies - particularly European ones - have become pretty significant investors in renewables," McCrone said. "So if they're feeling under pressure, then it could be that they become not so keen to invest in renewables quickly." Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-most-active-clean-energy-investors-in-2019-bnef-2020-1">Private investors poured $10.5 billion into clean energy in 2019. This list shows that oil and gas giants are among the most active private investors.</a>But Molchanov didn't agree with that idea. He says the oil price shock could actually steer these companies' strategies towards renewable energy. "This shock, showing just how violent the oil market can get, will steer some management teams into looking at wind and solar because they're not nearly as volatile or difficult to predict," he said. REUTERS/Mike BlakeCompanies that sell rooftop solar may take a hit in a recession, analysts said.<h2>Residential solar is likely to take a hit</h2>The impacts of a pandemic-fueled recession on residential solar are mixed, the analysts said. On one hand, cash-poor consumers are not going to be looking to make big purchases, and rooftop solar arrays cost around $20,000, according to Osborne. "I just don't see many couples saying 'Hey honey, let's drop $20,000 to put up the solar panels on the roof right now, even though we can save money and might have a five-year payback period,'" he said. That said, many companies including Sunrun and Sunnova offer leasing and loan options, which could be attractive deals in a recession. "Cash sales will definitely drop," Mochanov said. "Leasing and loans will be more protected." It's also possible that more customers will pursue rooftop solar for their homes to ensure a more stable supply of energy in the wake of the pandemic. "You couple this with extreme weather events and fires and I think this just increases demand," Brook Porter, a partner at the venture fund G2VP, said. "Just thinking about what happens when the grid goes down and thinking about resiliency, those thoughts drive capital investment."Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-and-superstorms-are-new-fuel-for-rooftop-solar-companies-2020-3">A global pandemic and fear of power outages could fuel an emerging $50 billion market for rooftop solar companies like Tesla and Sunrun</a>Karp says residential solar companies may also be more secure in a recession, compared to companies that own large-scale arrays that deliver energy to corporations through power purchase agreements (PPAs). If the corporation goes bankrupt, the PPA could be subjected to bankruptcy, she said. But when your panels are distributed across the homes of thousands of customers, "it's a diversified risk." <h2>Policies support renewable energy </h2>At least <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tracking-progress-on-100-clean-energy-targets">12 states and Puerto Rico</a> have made 100% clean energy commitments. And many more utilities across the country are required to meet what's called a renewable portfolio standard - meaning a percentage of their electricity must come from clean energy sources by a certain date. "The laws about decarbonization and renewable portfolio standards are going to still be enforced," Molchanov said, though he mentioned that most of them are set 20 or 30 years out in the future. There are also tax incentives for installing wind and solar energy called the Production Tax Credit (PTC) that are expiring in the next year or two. If they don't get extended in the government stimulus package, they could spur short-term growth. Utilities that own wind and solar assets have "tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars at stake," Osborne said. "There's a clock that you're up against."<ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-renewable-energy-stocks-could-be-first-to-bounce-back-2020-3">Renewable-energy stocks could be the first to bounce back after the pandemic peaks, JPMorgan says. These are the bank's top 4 picks.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-and-superstorms-are-new-fuel-for-rooftop-solar-companies-2020-3">A global pandemic and fear of power outages could fuel an emerging $50 billion market for rooftop solar companies like Tesla and Sunrun</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bnef-analysts-slash-projections-for-2020-renewable-energy-installations-2020-3">The leading clean-energy research firm just slashed its outlook in response to the coronavirus pandemic, revealing that solar energy installations could decline for the first time in decades</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/8-experts-explain-how-coronavirus-is-impacting-the-clean-energy-sector-2020-3">Shuttered factories, tangled supply chains, and cratering demand: 8 experts told us how the coronavirus pandemic and oil price war are hitting clean energy</a></li></ul><a href="https://store.businessinsider.com/products/banking-briefing-subscription?itm_source=businessinsider&amp;itm_medium=ctgr_bii&amp;itm_term=ctgr_subscription&amp;itm_content=wallstreet&amp;itm_campaign=banking-briefing-subscription-2"></a> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economist-weighted-voting-could-help-save-us-democracy-2018-5">A top economist has a radical plan to change the way Americans vote: weighted voting</a></h3>

Wall Street analysts told us exactly what they think will happen to the $360 billion clean-energy industry during a recession

Unlike before, everything from light bulbs to refrigerators to security systems are interconnected, and while these devices have made work- life easy, they’ve also created new attack vectors. Collectively these devices are termed as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=internet+of+things&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">internet of things</a>. Technology experts and pundits predict that these devices are poised to become more invasive than mobile phones. It’ll contain sensitive data like social security numbers, banking information and who knows what. 
 This notion of combining sensors, networks and computers to observe and control devices, has existed since the inception of the word technology. The convergence of several market trends is giving <keyword id="1967280" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="IoT">IoT</keyword> a widespread reality. Now, they include computing economics, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=cloud+computing&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">cloud computing</a>, IP-Networking, and data analytics. 
 
IoT is being used in various sectors, according to the current market trend, smart home devices are holding a monopoly in the current market. Its other applications include wearables, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=smart+cities&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">smart city</a>, smart grids, Industrial Internet, retail Agri-tech etc. 
 
Smart Home: This application of IoT currently stands out from the rest on all measured channels. The aggregate sum of financing for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=smart+homes&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Smart Home</a> new businesses currently surpasses $2.5 billion. This rundown incorporates noticeable startup names like AlertMe and additionally various multinational partnerships like Philips, Haier, <keyword id="10591" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Samsung">Samsung</keyword> etc. 
 
Transportation &amp; Distribution: <keyword id="970768" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="internet-of-things">Internet of Things</keyword> is taking track and trace (logistics) to a whole new level. Not just location but various conditions like temperature, humidity, vibration, tilt etc can be measured. Not only it is monitoring drivers but also their equipments for safety purposes. Not to forget, driverless vehicles are getting closer and closer to reality, which will not only change the way people consume taxi aggregation services but also the logistics sector will see a new dawn. 
 
Agri-Tech: Precision agri-business depends on IoT. It makes seeding, watering system and the utilization of chemicals more exact. Moreover, it screens soil quality, wind pace and daylight levels so agriculturists know precisely what's happening with their yields. What's more, it saves resources and energy to lower costs and limit the impact on the environment. 
 
The Future of IoT 
“If policy makers and businesses get it right, linking the physical and digital worlds could generate up to $11.1 trillion a year in economic value by 2025”- <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/business-technology/our-insights/the-internet-of-things-the-value-of-digitizing-the-physical-world">McKinsey</a>’s report on IoT. 
 
Further, the report stated that the B2B applications of IoT will nearly capture 70 percent of the market. Now this clearly out powers its consumer centric uses like wearables, home automation devices etc. The health tech industry is not far, it is predicted that, by 2025, remote monitoring could generate $1.1 trillion a year just through chronic disease patients. 
 The global research firm Gartner gauges that a year back, there were 3.8 billion associated things out there—autos, smoke finders, door locks, modern robots, streetlights, heart screens, trains, wind turbines, even tennis racquets and toasters. By 2020, the company estimates that there will be 25 billion of these savvy gadgets, transmitting modest measures of information to us, to the cloud and to each other. <keyword id="6390344" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cisco">Cisco</keyword>'s CEO, John Chambers, has announced that there will be 50 billion gadgets online inside five years, with an aggregate business sector worth $19 trillion. Another pioneer in this circle, <keyword id="73372" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Siemens">Siemens</keyword>, has said these brilliant things are beginning to control a fourth Industrial Revolution (after steam, power and wired PCs). 
 
Privacy &amp; Security Concerns 
While security contemplations are not new with regards to data innovation, the properties of numerous IoT usages introduce new and extraordinary security challenges. Tending to these difficulties and guaranteeing security in IoT items and administrations, should be a major priority. Clients need to trust that IoT gadgets and related information administrations are secure from vulnerabilities, particularly as this innovation turns out to be more pervasive and coordinated into our everyday lives. 
 
The Internet of Things is rethinking the civil argument about protection issues, its usage can drastically change the ways individual information is gathered, examined, utilized, and ensured. For instance, IoT opens up concerns about the potential for expanded reconnaissance and following, trouble in having the capacity to quit certain information gathering, and the quality of amassing IoT information streams to paint definite advanced representations of clients. While these are imperative difficulties, they are not unrealistic. 
 
With a specific end goal to understand the open doors, procedures should be created to regard singular protection decisions over a wide range of desires, while still encouraging development in new innovation and administrations. 
 
Early models of Internet of Things accept the fact that IoT will be the result of substantial private and/or open innovation undertakings, yet later on "Construct your own particular Internet of Things" may get to be more typical as exemplified by the developing Arduino and Raspberry Pi60 designer groups. 
 
The Future of IoT (Predictive &amp; Prescriptive data analytics) 
Today, organizations utilize restricted arrangements of information to control procedures or screen frameworks. For instance, positive train control (PTC) screens train developments and averts mishaps. Also, a pipeline sensor recognizes a hole and cautions a repair group. These can be seen as a noteworthy change, yet they're just a small amount of what IoT can do. 
 
Soon pioneers in the IoT business sector can characterize a positive results (like higher unit deals or higher interim amongst disappointments) and let their investigation framework distinguish the most ideal activities—new activities that are completely in view of information from IoT sensors, business frameworks and outer sources—even ones that appear to be outlandish. 
 
We're not there yet. As of now, most organisations consider particular assignments and not how these errands could fit into a greater IoT environment. While numerous associations gather the information they'd use for prescient examination, a lot of it goes unused. However, that is evolving and there’s a lot left to see. 
 
Conclusion 
The digitization of machines, vehicles, and different components of the physical world is a capable thought. Indeed, even at this early stage, the IoT is beginning to have a genuine effect by changing how merchandise are made and appropriated, how items are adjusted and refined, and how specialists and patients oversee wellbeing and health. 
 
However, capturing the maximum capacity of IoT applications will require development in advances and plans of action, and interest in new abilities and ability. With arrangement activities to energize interoperability, guarantee security, and ensure protection and property rights, the Internet of Things can start to achieve its maximum capacity—particularly if pioneers genuinely grasp information driven basic leadership.

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Wall Street analysts told us exactly what they think will happen to the $360 billion clean-energy industry during a recession

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