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Over 10 million Indians have lost their <keyword id="11018" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jobs">jobs</keyword> because of the second wave of COVID-19, and around 97 per cent of <keyword id="6385528" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="households">households</keyword>' <keyword id="164684" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="incomes">incomes</keyword> have declined since the beginning of the pandemic last year, Centre for Monitoring <keyword id="6356076" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian Economy</keyword> (<keyword id="6493461" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="cmie">CMIE</keyword>) chief executive <keyword id="731893" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mahesh-Vyas">Mahesh Vyas</keyword> said on Monday. The <keyword id="93845" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment-rate">unemployment rate</keyword> measured by the think-tank is expected to come at 12 per cent at the end of May as against 8 per cent in April, <keyword id="30343" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vyas">Vyas</keyword> told , adding this signifies that about 10 million or 1 crore Indians have lost jobs in this period. Stating that the main reason for the job losses is "mainly the second wave" of COVID-19 infections, Vyas said, "As the economy opens up, part of the problem will be solved but not entirely." He explained that people who lose jobs find it hard to get employment, specifying that while the informal sector jobs come back quickly, the formal sector and better quality job opportunities take up to a year to come back. Unemployment rate had touched a record high of 23.5 per cent in May 2020 because of the national lockdown. Many experts opine that the second wave of infections has peaked and states will slowly start to ease the economic activity-impacting restrictions in a calibrated fashion. Vyas further said an unemployment rate of 3-4 per cent should be considered as "normal" for the Indian economy, hinting that the unemployment number will have to decline for longer before the situation improves. He said CMIE has completed a nation-wide survey of 1.75 lakh households in April which throws up worrying trends on income generation during the last one year -- which has witnessed two waves of the pandemic. Only 3 per cent of those polled said they have witnessed an increase in incomes, while 55 per cent said their incomes have declined, he said. An additional 42 per cent of the people said their incomes remained the same as that in the year-ago period. "If we adjust for inflation, we find that 97 per cent of the households in the country have witnessed a decline in incomes during the pandemic," he pointed out. The labour participation rate, or the percentage of the working age population which is in the market, has come down to 40 per cent as of now from the pre-pandemic levels of 42.5 per cent, he added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/apps/news/google-photos-alternatives-are-hardly-any-good/articleshow/83138238.cms">Google Photos alternatives are hardly any good – here’s what made the Google service so good</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/economy/news/indias-gdp-has-contracted-five-times-since-1947-but-never-as-bad-as-7-3/articleshow/83135455.cms">India’s GDP has contracted five times since 1947, but never as bad as 7.3%</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/xiaomis-latest-wired-charging-tech-can-fully-charge-a-phone-in-just-8-minutes-and-wirelessly-in-15-minutes/articleshow/83136172.cms">Xiaomi’s latest wired charging tech can fully charge a phone in just 8 minutes and wirelessly in 15 minutes</a>

COVID-19 has left 10 million Indians jobless and 97% homes poorer, reveals CMIE

"FM Sitharaman should try a MGNREGA-like plan for urban unemployed."

<ul><li>Salaried jobs, which are amongst the more well-paying jobs, are the silver lining in an otherwise deteriorating employment market, <keyword id="6493461" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="cmie" source="Orion">CMIE</keyword> data shows. </li><li>Even amongst salaried jobs – those created by listed companies came in at 0.7 million in 2021-22, offering up to three-times higher salaries than other salaried jobs. </li><li>A rise in industrial jobs, and a decline in agricultural and personal service jobs is another good indicator, say analysts. </li></ul>The Indian workforce is smaller than pre-pandemic days, but the quality of jobs has gotten better, according to a new survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). According to the latest CMIE report, salaried jobs, which are amongst the more well-paying jobs, are the silver lining in an otherwise deteriorating employment market. The report states that 8.5 million salaried jobs were added in September-October 2022. Overall, salaried jobs stood at 86 million in September, and 84.7 million in October – the highest in any month since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Smaller, but better paid workforce" comment="subhead" text="Smaller, but better paid workforce">Smaller, but better paid workforce</cmsannotation> More interestingly, it’s the jobs created by listed companies that offer the most comfort, according to Mahesh Vyas, managing director and CEO of CMIE. According to Vyas, salaries in listed companies are nearly three-fold higher than other salaried jobs – the average salaries in listed companies in 2021-22 stood at ₹7.14 lakh per annum, when<a href="https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&amp;dt=20221107154522&amp;msec=023"> compared</a> to ₹2.63 lakh per annum across all salaried jobs. “This is way ahead of wages in other forms of employment. For example, a business person made ₹1,34,323 per annum and small traders and daily wage labourers made about ₹1,17,053 per annum. Farmers made even less,” Vyas said. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Agriculture, personal service jobs decline – but that’s a good thing, says Credit Suisse" comment="subhead" text="Agriculture, personal service jobs decline – but that’s a good thing, says Credit Suisse">Agriculture, personal service jobs decline – but that’s a good thing, says Credit Suisse</cmsannotation> Employment metrics appear to have deteriorated when the overall numbers are taken into account, with the labour participation rate falling from 39.3% in September to 39% in October. The rate of unemployment also rose from 6.4% to 7.8%. However, CMIE notes that it has seen a rise in industrial jobs when compared to the pre-Covid levels seen in October 2019. “The drop in agricultural employment should be seen positively, given that it usually means hidden unemployment. Further, the decline in service jobs is mostly in personal services, which are also generally low in value-addition,” said a report by Credit Suisse. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Rural recovery underway, says Morgan Stanley, but caution needed" comment="subhead" text="Rural recovery underway, says Morgan Stanley, but caution needed">Rural recovery underway, says Morgan Stanley, but caution needed</cmsannotation> While a bulk of the salaried jobs – 63% of them – came from the urban markets in 2021-22, analysts at Morgan Stanley say that a<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rural-recovery-underway-says-morgan-stanley/articleshow/94935646.cms"> rural recovery</a> is underway, too. Four key indicators – employment, credit offtake, auto sales and trade, are all set for a rebound, the research firm noted. “We believe rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market conditions, and improving terms of trade for the rural sector,” the report said. Credit Suisse adds that the demand for jobs under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is also the lowest since the beginning of Covid-19. However, on a cautionary note, CMIE says that daily wage labourers and small traders lost 11.8 million jobs in September-October 2022 – most of these jobs are in rural India. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/article/its-not-just-mercedes-even-bank-deposits-are-competing-with-equities/articleshow/95879457.cms">It’s not just Mercedes, even bank deposits are competing with equities</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indias-gdp-growth-comes-in-at-6-3-in-q2-manufacturing-mining-witness-negative-growth/articleshow/95888683.cms">India's GDP growth comes in at 6.3% in Q2: manufacturing, mining witness negative growth</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/slower-rate-hikes-on-the-cards-say-analysts-ahead-of-rbis-december-monetary-policy-meet/articleshow/95881537.cms">Slower rate hikes on the cards, say analysts ahead of RBI’s December monetary policy meet</a>

Indian workforce smaller than pre-pandemic days, but quality of jobs better

<ul><li>Aditi Nayar, an economist with <keyword id="6354972" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra">ICRA</keyword>, told Business Insider that good news is on the way and India’s <keyword id="6357558" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Recession">recession</keyword> will end in the current quarter.</li><li>In India, GST collections, electricity demand, railway freight movement, and passenger vehicle sales have reverted to positive growth numbers in recent months.</li><li>But it is to be kept in mind that the data continues to represent the organised economy and India’s informal economy is still in pain.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India declared that India had gone into recession after the economy contracted for two straight quarters, between March and October 2020, due to the pandemic and the lockdowns that followed. However, Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist at the ratings agency, ICRA, told Business Insider that good news is on the way and India’s recession will end in the current quarter i.e. January to March 2021. The unhinged rally in the stock markets, where Sensex breached 50,000 for the first time on Jan 21, is fuelled by this optimism. “For the third quarter as a whole, we've got most indicators having shown a year-on-year expansion, and that again is something that's really important as an import for economists like me who need to figure out whether we are already, out of the recession or we are going to get out of the recession in the current quarter,” said Nayar. <div type="twitter" handle="BiIndia" handlename="Business Insider India🇮🇳" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1232926719016718336/sfffJHNV_normal.jpg" favoritecount="8" retweetcount="3" status="Economist vs Investor-- two different POVs on #BudgetInsider, @iyer_sriram in conversation with @ICRALimited's Adit… https://t.co/Ij3Ju6LJBL" createdat="1611227111000" id="1352210630531452929"></div> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Quarter </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Contraction in India’s GDP </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">April-June, 2020 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">23.9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">July-September </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.7% </td></tr></tbody></table>GDP stands for gross domestic product or, in short, national income. But Nayar isn’t the only one rejoicing the recent turn in economic data. In an interview with Business Insider, Nilesh Shah, MD of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Fund⁠— also a part-time member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council⁠⁠— cited the spike in GST collections ⁠— <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1685332">a record high in December</a> ⁠— aside from data from the <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-12_IN_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">Google </a>mobility index and the <keyword id="30067" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword>’s <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/forex-reserves-up-by-758-mn-to-lifetime-high-of-586-082-bn/articleshow/80289432.cms">foreign exchange reserves</a> to show that all is relatively well. “Put all of this data together, we are seeing a month-on-month improvement in the economy,” Shah explained. Industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla too in a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/kumar-mangalam-birla-says-markets-are-too-euphoric-and-the-economists-are-too-pessimistic/articleshow/80367439.cms">recent note on LinkedIn</a> too pointed out the “swiftness with which we have seen recovery play out across sectors”. <div type="image" title="GST Collections 2020." msid="80399237" hostid="261"></div> A recent <a href="https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/EBUL21012021_F5770050C073B4C99AD00DD0B520ABAAC.PDF">article</a> authored by experts at India’s central bank too shared the views that the recent shifts in the macroeconomic landscape reflect that the “GDP (is) in striking distance of attaining positive territory and inflation easing closer to the target.” The recovery, though welcome, has been quite surprising for India’s economists like Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director and CEO of Centre for Monitoring <keyword id="6356076" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian Economy</keyword>. “The recovery has been much better than expected. No one expected the recovery to be as robust as it has indicated to be,” he said. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The economy is recovering but not evenly" comment="subhead" text="The economy is recovering but not evenly">The economy is recovering but not evenly</cmsannotation> But it is to be kept in mind that the data continues to represent the organised economy and India’s informal economy is still in pain. “There is a recovery in the organised sectors and there is stress in the unorganized sector. Because of the stress of the unorganized sector, they are vacating their spaces as they are unable to maintain their business, the larger sector is then taking on that space. This recovery is then creating more inequality in the country,” said Vyas. On that note, about the stress in India’s informal economy, Nayar and Vyas are on the same page. The economist from ICRA, too, said that the budget must focus on supporting the small businesses, service providers like people who worked in our offices or the people who worked as a support staff at restaurants that we stopped going to, whose livelihoods have disappeared due to the shifts brought by the pandemic. For example, while we cheer the fact that millions of children are able to attend classes from home, the school bus drivers are out of job. This may not always get captured in the GDP calculation effectively. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/kumar-mangalam-birla-says-markets-are-too-euphoric-and-the-economists-are-too-pessimistic/articleshow/80367439.cms">Kumar Mangalam Birla says markets are too euphoric and the economists are too pessimistic</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/nasscom-says-budget-2021-should-ensure-esops-are-taxed-only-when-shares-are-sold/articleshow/80387571.cms">NASSCOM says Budget 2021 should ensure ESOPs are taxed only when shares are sold</a>

Recession in India will end latest by March, says a top economist

<ul><li>The Finance Minister may announce a similar scheme as <keyword id="6361863" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MGNREGA" source="Orion">MGNREGA</keyword> for the urban population during the Union Budget 2022-2023 on February 1.</li><li>Last year, in August 2021, a parliamentary standing committee had suggested that the Union government should roll out a similar scheme.</li><li>A total of 6.51 crore people have been given employment under the MGNREGA scheme during the fiscal year 2021-22.</li></ul>This year’s Union Budget, which will be announced on February 1 by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, may drop a bomb by announcing an urban version of the Mahatama Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA). This scheme may help the economy in recovering from the job and income loss during the COVID-19 pandemic in the urban areas of the country. Last year, in August 2021, a <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache%3Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.livemint.com%2Feconomy%2Fparl-panel-recommends-mgnregs-like-job-scheme-for-urban-poor-11628108280192.html&amp;rlz=1C1GCEU_enIN947IN950&amp;oq=cache%3Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.livemint.com%2Feconomy%2Fparl-panel-recommends-mgnregs-like-job-scheme-for-urban-poor-11628108280192.html&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j69i58.3291j0j4&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8">parliamentary standing committee</a> had suggested that the Union government should roll out a similar scheme like MGNREGA for urban labourers as well, like what India has for rural job-seekers. Introduced in 2006, MGNREGA, is a government’s employment programme, which gives livelihood security by providing at least one hundred days of guaranteed wage employment in every financial year to every rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual work. <div type="image" title="MGNREGA budget over the last five years" msid="89199939" hostid="261"></div> The Union Budget 2021-22 allocated ₹73,000 crore for the MGNREGA, which was an increase by ₹11,500 crore as compared to 2020-21. A total 6.51 crore people have been given employment under this MGNREGA scheme during the fiscal year 2021-22. <div type="image" title="Unemployment Rate in India" msid="89200451" hostid="261"></div> “ The consequential effects on loss of jobs, rising unemployment, indebtedness, nutrition, health and education of unorganised workers and their family members have the potential to cast a long shadow and cause irreparable damage,” said Bhartruhari Mahtab, head of the standing committee on labour and a member of parliament (MP) from Biju Janata Dal, in a report submitted to the parliament. According to Betterplace estimates <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/they-have-not-returned-how-covid-19-has-impacted-labour-migration-in-the-country/articleshow/86513113.cms?from=mdr">cited</a> by the Economic Times, around 150 million labourers moved back from urban cities to their rural villages during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020. The committee further said, “The committee’s attention has been drawn to the fact that unlike employment generation programmes in rural areas, the plight of urban poor has not got much attention from the government… There is an imperative need for putting in place an employment guarantee programme for the urban workforce in line with MGNREGA”. Experts believe that an urban jobs scheme will definitely help tide over such a situation. “We have seen MGNREGA creating huge positive impact on rural employment and infrastructure…there is no <keyword id="13057761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Urban-MGNREGA" source="Orion">urban MGNREGA</keyword>…can we create [an] urban MGNREGA [like] solution so that urban unemployment gets reduced and the consumption starts improving,” Nilesh Shah, the managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund told Business Insider. He further said, “Creating urban MGNREGA is one solution, but the real solution is creating opportunities for people.” <div type="image" title="Decline in Salaries Jobs" msid="89200496" hostid="261"></div> Now, the question arises, how is it possible to bring out the job guarantee schemes for urban workers? Answering that question, Mahesh Vyas, CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axFAUAFwpUs">highlighted</a> that there is a manpower crunch at various public places like healthcare centres, schools, security, judiciary and so on. Under this urban employment scheme, people can be given jobs at these public places, which can surely fill the supply and demand gap. He said,“ When we ask, are there enough people manning public schools, healthcare centres or enough people in the government offices to serve you when you need services?…. The answer will systematically be no but actually there are not enough people to serve us in urban cities. To fix that let’s have an urban employment scheme to ensure that the government is there when we need them.” SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/heres-why-there-is-less-adoption-of-the-new-tax-regime-and-how-budget-2022-can-make-it-more-attractive/articleshow/89195776.cms">Here’s why there is less adoption of the new tax regime and how budget 2022 can make it more attractive</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/budget-2022-kotak-mahindra-mutual-funds-ceo-explains-why-real-estate-housing-and-textiles-should-get-boost/articleshow/89194327.cms">A market guru explains why real estate, housing and textiles should get some budget boost</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/from-tax-structure-rationalisation-to-expanding-ev-charging-infrastructure-heres-what-the-industry-wants-from-budget-2022/articleshow/89162814.cms">From tax structure rationalisation to expanding EV charging infrastructure, here’s what the industry wants from Budget 2022</a>

Budget 2022 expectation: Why India needs an urban MGNREGA

<ul><li>One of India’s biggest billionaires, referring to the bull run in the markets, said "economists are now searching for alphabets that will adequately describe this trend of cautious optimism."</li><li>The Reserve Bank of India in its financial stability report pointed out that the ‘disconnect’ between India’s <keyword id="6357440" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Stock-Market">stock market</keyword> and economy definitely poses risks to financial stability.</li><li><keyword id="39439" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="birla">Birla</keyword> said that several indicators like GST collections, electricity demand, railway freight movement and passenger vehicle sales have shown positive growth numbers in the recent months.</li></ul><keyword id="6354955" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kumar-Mangalam-Birla">Kumar Mangalam Birla</keyword>, one of India’s biggest business leaders and the owner of the over $48 billion <keyword id="44373" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Aditya-Birla-Group">Aditya Birla Group</keyword>, has an interesting take on how the recovery in the Indian economy is being perceived: markets are euphoric and economists are pessimistic, in Birla’s view. The musings, coming from one of the country’s biggest industrialists, are significant coming ahead of India’s annual budget on February 1. The state of the economy, which will be reflected in the annual economic survey a day before the budget speech, will have a bearing on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s approach and the policy announcements she makes for the coming year. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="So, what does Birla have to say about the economy?" comment="subhead" text="So, what does Birla have to say about the economy?">So, what does Birla have to say about the economy?</cmsannotation> In his latest note posted on LinkedIn, Birla shared the same fear that even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has. The RBI, in its latest financial stability report, pointed out that In India, while the economy has been called out as “<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/indian-economy-weak-credit-growth-bottoming-out-bofa/article33583665.ece">weak</a>”, the stock markets have rallied to an all-time high. However, Birla is more optimistic than the economists at RBI, or elsewhere. “In India too, the initial prognosis and narrative of experts proved to be excessively pessimistic,” he wrote. “The economists, I am told, are now searching for alphabets that will adequately describe this trend of cautious optimism,” Birla, whose companies include Ultratech (the country’s biggest cement maker), Hindalco (the country’s biggest aluminium company) and overseas units like Novelis, added. <div type="image" title="Sensex Nifty 2020." msid="80367607" hostid="261"></div> Responding to Birla’s comments, Mahesh Vyas, an eminent economist leading the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a think tank, said, “Economists are pessimistic. Economists are worrying about the economy. We are always hopeful in this pessimism, we keep looking for and sometimes finding green shoots. Currently, the search for that green shoot is really the most difficult one.” “One can say, since we have seen a decline this financial year, the next financial year we will see an increase which will be good but on a net basis, it’s difficult for me to see that in the next year we will have entirely covered the lost ground. We should look beyond the GDP to see the concerns the economists are talking about,” Vyas told Business Insider, in a chat where he raised an alarm around high unemployment in India. <div type="twitter" handle="BiIndia" handlename="Business Insider India🇮🇳" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1232926719016718336/sfffJHNV_normal.jpg" favoritecount="11" retweetcount="8" status="#Budgetnsider | What can the budget do to reduce unemployment in India? https://t.co/XkcVX5AEbn" createdat="1611138439000" id="1351838713857208322"></div> This is not the first time that Birla has sounded more excited about the recovery, especially in sectors, like cement, aluminium, where he is a major player. “There was a big question around what would happen to infrastructure spending. If I just see aluminium and cement businesses, they’ve both come back to pre-COVID levels very quickly,” he said during a candid conversation at<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/kumar-mangalam-birla-says-cement-industry-is-recovering-and-analysts-find-evidence-of-it-outside-ultratech-too/articleshow/78791281.cms"> BI Global Trends Festival 2020</a>. <div type="Youtube" id="v02oeojB4Jk" title="One Of India&amp;#39;s Money Managers Explained ‘The Mother Of All Bull Runs’ Using Amar, Akbar, Anthony" thumbUrl="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/v02oeojB4Jk/mqdefault.jpg"></div> There is indeed a lot of divided opinion on the nature of India’s economic recovery since the pandemic broke out. Noted economist <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-economy-may-contract-25-in-current-fiscal-economist-arun-kumar-11610873398297.html">Arun Kumar</a> too had said that India’s economy is not really recovering as fast as the government claims. Instead, the economy may contract by 25% in the current fiscal year. On the other hand, market experts like Nilesh Shah, MD of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Fund⁠— also a part-time member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council⁠— is more optimistic. In an interview with Business Insider, Shah cited the spike in GST collections ⁠— <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1685332">a record high in December</a> ⁠— aside from data from the <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-12_IN_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">Google </a>mobility index and the Reserve Bank of India’s <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/forex-reserves-up-by-758-mn-to-lifetime-high-of-586-082-bn/articleshow/80289432.cms">foreign exchange reserves</a> to show that all is relatively well. “Put all of this data together, we are seeing a month-on-month improvement in the economy,” Shah explained. Ahead of the upcoming budget, on February 1, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to announce measures to further bolster the economic recovery, the debate is just gaining momentum. The sustainability of India’s economic recovery⁠— or that of the market rally⁠— will be clear in the months to come. As Birla himself put it in his latest post, “it will take another quarter or so to see whether this bull run would last.” SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/here-are-the-major-changes-that-could-reportedly-come-up-with-the-union-budget-2021-by-nirmala-sitharaman/articleshow/80325146.cms">Budget 2021: From Income Tax deductions to creating jobs and boosting healthcare – Here’s all that could be in Nirmala Sitharaman’s fiscal plans</a>

Kumar Mangalam Birla says markets are too euphoric and the economists are too pessimistic

<ul><li>The average purchasing power in India is depleting fast that is likely to affect consumer demand.</li><li>However, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty have recently hit record levels thanks to a surge in corporate profits, most of which came from cost cutting.</li><li>The sustained fall in household savings, both financial and physical assets like gold or real estate, over the last five years has been worsened by the fall in wages.</li><li>This has led to a sharp fall in consumer confidence and that is bad news for companies looking to sell cars, jewellery, home appliances, and even shares and other financial investments.</li></ul>Forget gross domestic product (GDP) and the high-as-a-kite stock markets. Even the Narendra Modi government likes to <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-gdp-in-ppp-terms-more-than-bdeshs-govt/articleshow/78671559.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">cite the country’s purchasing power when cornered</a>. But even that is on a slide, a not-so-merry one. It’s hardly a surprise given the knockout punch that the COVID-19 virus has delivered. Businesses looking to protect their bottomline have laid off a lot of employees, and many of those who still have jobs aren’t earning as much as they used to. On the other hand, <a href="https://zeenews.india.com/markets/sensex-hits-fresh-record-high-tops-44000-level-2325095.html" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Sensex has kissed new highs</a> because corporate profits have surged in the latest quarterly statements. However, as Mahesh Vyas from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a business information firm, pointed out, between July and September 2020, corporate profits grew over 20%, the rebound in wages was just 3.8% after a sharp fall in the preceding quarter. And this is likely to be a continuing trend. As <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/why-companies-profits-have-rebounded-faster-than-wages-during-covid-pandemic/articleshow/79308002.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Vyas put it</a>, “The lockdown has taught companies a lesson or two on running business with fewer human resources. These lessons are unlikely to be forgotten.” That’s bad news for companies looking to sell cars, jewellery, home appliances, and even shares and other financial investments. There is more evidence of where the profits are flowing from. All the companies analysed by broking firm Motilal Oswal, put together, saw a decline of 7% in sales but a 16% jump in profit after tax. Simply put, most of the profit came from cost cutting and not a rise in demand. Consumer insights firm Nielsen recently explained the phenomenon. The Indian consumer is trading down in certain segments, those who can are buying larger packs to save money, and opting for more private labels. And that’s visible in the gross margin ⁠— before costs like wages, advertisements and promotion are deducted ⁠— of some of biggest names in consumer products. <table style="width: 233pt;"> </colgroup> <tbody><tr> <td class="xl63" style="height:45.0pt;width:129pt">Company</td> <td class="xl64" style="border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none; width: 104pt;">July-Sep gross margin change (basis points)</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Bajaj Consumer</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-74</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Agro Tech Foods</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-183</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Jyothy Labs</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">128</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">ITC</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-163</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Dabur</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">HUL</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-128</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Emami</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">55</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Marico</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-163</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Nestle</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">56</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Colgate</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">344</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Godrej Consumer</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-57</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Britannia</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">176</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Varun Beverages</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-149</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Tata Consumer Products</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-269</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none;">Aggregate</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-top-width: initial; border-top-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-left-style: none;">-220</td> </tr></tbody></table>Source: IIFL, Change compared to same period last year Rational people spend more on discretionary items like cars and appliances when they save more. And the larger pessimism is visible in <a href="https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/CCS09102023E6F5FCA08F4C4BAB9F599F5D9DC754.PDF" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">the consumer confidence data</a>, put out by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is breaking the charts on the wrong side. People do not expect to spend more on non-essential items even in the next one year. <div type="image" title="rbi ccs" msid="79317971" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Indian consumer&amp;#39;s expectation of spending on non-essential items is abysmally low.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The Indian consumer’s ability or willingness to spend had started eroding long before the pandemic. And, on an average, there has been a steady decline in household savings in India, to a point that this year’s estimate is the lowest since at least 2012. The pinch is much worse for people who are retired, many of whom living on their savings lying at the banks. The interest on long-term fixed deposits make less money compared to the savings account, which is much lower than the current inflation. Essentially, people are paying banks rent to keep their money safe instead of earning from it. <div type="image" title="India household savings" msid="79318175" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;India household savings, both financial &amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;redactor-invisible-space&amp;quot;&amp;gt;and in physical assets like gold, are sharply down in the last five years.&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> This should concern markets as well as policymakers. "GDP is an aggregative indicator of economic activity and hides the extent of human misery and the loss of social and human capital caused by the health crisis. Nonetheless, if the projections hold, the GDP would have fallen approximately 6% below its pre-COVID level and it may take years to regain this lost output,” Deputy Governor of the RBI and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee Michael D Patra recently <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rate-cut-will-depend-upon-moderation-in-inflation-rbi-governor-shanktikanta-das/articleshow/78829858.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">said</a>. The gloom, too, shall pass eventually. But to experience a boom people need jobs, good wages and a feeling of certainty. And that will only come from new corporate investment that can generate employment. And it has to happen sooner than later. Else, India’s famed demographic dividend would have been squandered. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/from-downward-dog-to-upward-boom-influencer-and-teacher-ira-trivedi-shares-how-virtual-yoga-took-off-during-the-lockdown/articleshow/79317417.cms">From downward dog to upward boom — influencer and teacher Ira Trivedi shares how virtual yoga took off during the lockdown</a><a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/from-downward-dog-to-upward-boom-influencer-and-teacher-ira-trivedi-shares-how-virtual-yoga-took-off-during-the-lockdown/articleshow/79317417.cms"></a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/remembering-ym-deosthalee-the-man-who-struck-the-right-chord-between-music-and-math/articleshow/79306305.cms">Remembering YM Deosthalee, the man who struck the right chord between music and math</a><a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/remembering-ym-deosthalee-the-man-who-struck-the-right-chord-between-music-and-math/articleshow/79306305.cms"></a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/indra-nooyi-may-be-in-joe-biden-cabinet-heres-a-look-at-her-take-on-some-key-issues-concerning-india-and-us/articleshow/79303469.cms">Indra Nooyi may be in Joe Biden's Cabinet – here's a look at her take on some key issues concerning India and US</a>

There is a lot of money in the share market but not enough in your pocket

<ul><li>The unemployment scenario in India turns bleak, with the rate rising to 7.2% in February 2019, compared to 5.9% in 2018 during the same period. </li><li>The country has 400 million employed professionals, as of February 2019, while it was 406 million last year in February. </li><li>Nearly 11 million people were hit by <keyword id="6369865" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-loss">job loss</keyword>es in 2018 — rural India accounting for over 85% job loss in the country.</li></ul>While the Indian government is stepping up efforts to curb unemployment, a new report has revealed worrying numbers on the <keyword id="93845" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment-rate">unemployment rate</keyword> in India. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/india/indias-unemployment-rate-climbed-to-7-2-percent-in-february-report-2057061.html">unemployment rate</a> in India increased to 7.2% in February 2019, compared to 5.9% last year in February. It was the highest since September 2016. The number of employed professionals were recorded to be 400 million in 2019, compared to 406 million last year during the same time period, Mahesh Vyas, head of CMIE, <a href="https://thewire.in/labour/india-unemployment-jobs-cmie">told</a> Reuters. The downward projection is regardless of the narrowing figures in terms of <keyword id="6367340" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Job-seekers">job seekers</keyword> and labour participation in the country, he added citing an estimated fall in the labour participation rate. The figures drawn in the CMIE report are an outcome of tens of thousands of households across India. The bleak scenario of unemployment will be a setback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, considering the upcoming general elections. However, Modi has not been relying on unemployment surveys calling them<a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/most-unemployment-surveys-are-skewed-pm-narendra-modi-tells-house-119020701599_1.html"> ‘skewed,’</a> as some of them exclude the employment in unorganised sector, which makes up for the vast majority of jobs in the country. The government recently played down a leaked official jobs survey that said India’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% in 2018, the highest in 45 years, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/unemployment-in-india-is-at-its-highest-in-45-years-says-an-indian-daily-citing-an-undisclosed-jobs-survey/articleshow/67769020.cms">according to</a> reports. As per an analysis report by CMIE released in January this year, demonetisation has had a great impact on <keyword id="973510" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment-in-india">unemployment in India</keyword>. Nearly <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/india-lost-11-million-jobs-in-2018-rural-areas-worst-hit-cmie/story/306804.html">11 million people</a> were hit by job loss in 2018 owing to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) schemes introduced in 2017 — with over 85% job loss from rural India. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/unemployment-in-india-is-at-its-highest-in-45-years-says-an-indian-daily-citing-an-undisclosed-jobs-survey/articleshow/67769020.cms">Unemployment in India is at its highest in 45 years – says an Indian daily citing an undisclosed jobs survey</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/global-unemployment-rate-falls-to-5-hits-pre-crisis-levels/articleshow/67985921.cms">Global unemployment rate is lowest since 2008 financial crisis</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/in-india-flexibility-overpowers-pay-hike-on-job-change/articleshow/67975325.cms">In India, employees are prioritising ‘remote work policy’ while taking up a job — and will even take a pay cut</a>

India's unemployment rate for February highest in two years: CMIE

According to the Centre for Monitoring <keyword id="6356076" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian Economy</keyword> (<keyword id="6493461" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="CMIE">CMIE</keyword>), PM <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword>’s demonetization drive is estimated to cost the economy Rs 1.28 lakh crore. The calculations have been done until December 30, by when people are required to exchange old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes. 
 
This however does not include many indirect costs, such as those from disturbing the supply chain, says the study by its managing director, Mahesh Vyas. 
 
As per the study, the highest cost at Rs 61,500 crore, would be borne by the enterprise sector, which covers all businesses that produce goods and services and are also involved in the supply clain comprising farmers,m transporters, retailers, manufacturers etc. 
 
It also states that the entire supply chain of goods and services, a large part of which is cash-based will suffer a massive liquidity shock.. 
 
"This cash-based economy is unable to continue transactions because of the sudden fall in availability of cash. It is unable to meet business and financial obligations, and unable to liquidate stocks and receivables into cash. In fact, it is very busy dealing in converting the old currency it used to conduct business hitherto," says the study.

PM Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive to cost the economy Rs 1.28 lakh crore

The number of stalled projects went up under the <keyword id="65795" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-government">BJP government</keyword> and the numbers are alarming. 
 Under the PM Narendra Modi government, the number of stalled projects touched an all-time high with 893 ventures worth Rs 11.36 trillion held up due to lack of promoter interest, unfavourable <keyword id="175320" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-conditions">market conditions</keyword> and lack of funds. 
 As per the <keyword id="122232" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Centre-for-Monitoring-Indian-Economy">Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy</keyword> (CMIE) data, which was accessed by ET, during the <keyword id="26374" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="UPA-government">UPA government</keyword>, there were 766 stalled projects in March 2014. 
 
The number swelled up to 816 in 2014-15 and 893 by the end of 2015-16. 
 
As per the data, new investments declined 25% to Rs 8 trillion in 2015-16 from Rs 10.64 trillion in 2014-15. 
 
"Number of live projects whose implementation is stalled is at an all-time high in terms of value and aggregate numbers. Data also shows that projects being initiated is at an all-time low. In spite of 'Make in India' and 'Stand Up India' initiatives of the government, new investments are just not coming in adequately," Mahesh Vyas, managing director of CMIE, told ET. 
 
He said, "UPA-I was extremely successful in ramping up investments compared to this government." 
 
(Image: Thinkstock)

Projects worth Rs 11.36 trillion are stalled under the BJP govt. Here are the hard facts

<ul><li>The only non-government appointed members of the National Statistical Commission have quit.</li><li>The resigning members allege that <keyword id="6354642" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi">Modi</keyword> government has withheld key employment data.</li><li>The undisclosed report would have been India’s first official survey on employment in 2 years.</li></ul> Two independent members of a commission created to add credibility to India’s economic data have stepped down. On January 29th, Chairman PC Manohan and JV Meenakshi - the only external members of India’s National Statistics Commission, a body under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation - resigned well before the end of their terms scheduled <a href="http://www.mospi.gov.in/present-composition-nsc">in June next year</a>. The body only comprises government appointees - Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant and Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava. Their reasons for resigning? They did not like the way the government shelved their data. An official employment survey done in 2017-18 was vetted by the Commission and is due to be published. But the government has chosen not to make it public. Sources told <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/nsc-members-feel-sidelined-by-govt-resign-on-row-over-jobs-gdp-data-119012901079_1.html">Business Standard </a>that the labour force survey had been approved in December 2018, but had been withheld from public because the government did not like the findings. The <keyword id="11018" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jobs">jobs</keyword> data, surveyed by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), would have put to rest an escalated debate on the number of jobs created, which has been the Achilles heel for the Modi government. The <a href="https://www-firstpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.firstpost.com/business/indias-missing-employment-data-we-arent-better-off-as-a-nation-living-in-the-dark-about-job-scenario-4381419.html/amp?usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D&amp;_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp;_tf=From%20%251%24s&amp;ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.firstpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Findias-missing-employment-data-we-arent-better-off-as-a-nation-living-in-the-dark-about-job-scenario-4381419.html">last time</a> India released an official labour survey was in 2016, which showed that <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> had risen to a five-year high to 5%. Periodic employment surveys from the NSSO, which were discontinued in 2012, were <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/J0BRzNjeZdGQRvItX3HWjM/Solving-the-mystery-of-missing-employment-data-in-the-Indian.html">deemed</a> as the most authoritative source on India’s unemployment picture, followed by the annual surveys conducted by the country’s labour bureau. All other job data proxies are said to be at best a reflection of under 10% to 25% of the country’s labour force, according to a Mint report in 2018. The administration has been sparring with its critics for months now dismissing the charge that the government has not been able to create jobs in the country, despite what the overall economic growth might be. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think tank, recently found that <a href="https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&amp;dt=2019-01-08%2009:28:37&amp;msec=666">11 million</a> domestic jobs were lost in 2018, 9.1 million of which were in rural areas, as unemployment reached a 15-month high of 7.4% at the end of December. Most of the jobs were for unskilled workers, indicating a hit to the most vulnerable members of the workforce, according to the CMIE. In fact, in September last year, Mahesh Vyas, the CEO of CMIE, said that over <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/cmies-mahesh-vyas-says-3-5-million-jobs-lost-due-to-demonetisation-5357295/">3.5 million jobs </a>were lost in the wake of demonetisation in November 2016, in addition to the exodus of 15 million people from the workforce. However, the government cited data from the Employee Provident Fund Organisation -- which runs the retirement benefits fund-- to say that it had created <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/over-18-million-new-jobs-in-15-months-to-november-2018-cso/articleshow/67697413.cms">18 million jobs</a> over the last 15 months. Critics of the Modi government argue that the EPFO data at best shows the level of formal employment, whereas <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/nearly-81-indias-employed-population-informal-economy">81% </a>of India’s workforce is in the informal sector where there are no retirement benefits. The jobs data is only one of the concerns raised by the independent members of the <keyword id="65834" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSC">NSC</keyword> who stepped down. They also reportedly complained against the government’s release <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-bjp-led-government-has-released-a-set-of-revised-gdp-data-that-dramatically-reduces-growth-during-the-previous-administrations-tenure/articleshow/66861828.cms">of back-series GDP data </a>in November without taking their inputs into consideration. The back-series data was particularly controversial because it dramatically reduced the growth rate achieved during the preceding Congress administration’s tenure. The report was released ahead of the state polls in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Speaking to Business Standard, Pronab Sen, India's former chief statistician, said that the resignation of Manohan and Meenakshi was "entirely appropriate", given that the NSC is meant to add credibility to data released by the government. Rivals have charged the government for not respecting institutional autonomy. While critics wonder how bad the jobs data might be, for the government to put it aside without explanation. Now, the Modi government has a monumental task of reassuring its voters and the world that the data released from India is credible. One of the ways to do it is to release the jobs data catching dust on the government shelves. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-bjp-led-government-has-released-a-set-of-revised-gdp-data-that-dramatically-reduces-growth-during-the-previous-administrations-tenure/articleshow/66861828.cms">India’s BJP-led government has released a set of revised GDP data that dramatically reduces growth during the previous administration’s tenure</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/the-resignation-of-the-governor-of-indias-central-bank-sends-a-clear-indication-about-the-erosion-of-institutional-autonomy-under-the-modi-administration/articleshow/67040287.cms">The resignation of the governor of India’s central bank sends a clear indication about the erosion of institutional autonomy under the Modi administration</a>

Modi government has a hidden jobs report — say two independent bureaucrats who just quit

Contrary to the claim of <keyword id="2546902" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="PM-Narendra-Modi-government">PM Narendra Modi Government</keyword> of good days is the number of stalled and abandoned projects. 
 
As per the data by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the number of stalled and abandoned projects in India increased in the first 10 months of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government. 
 
The CMIE quarterly data, which is exclusively with Economic Times, is used by the finance ministry as a gauge of industry confidence. It showed that 363 projects were stalled in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2015, as compared to 341 projects in 2013-14. The same trend was visible for abandoned projects. 
 
While Congress-led Government’s last financial year 2013-14 saw 69 projects being abandoned, the number increased to 101 on BJP's watch. But the comparison is not exact as the BJP government was not in power for the whole of fiscal 2014-15, having assumed office on May 26 last year. 
 
ET reported that the concern is that the number of abandoned projects increased steadily through 2014-15 as in the quarter ending June 30, 2014, just after the new government assumed power, the number was an all-time low of 11. 
 
In the second quarter it more than doubled, with 30 projects being abandoned. The fiscal year, however, ended with 32 projects - the highest in eight quarters - being abandoned. 
 
"The number of projects getting stalled has increased. Apart from the numbers, equally important is the nature of projects. The data shows that large projects have continued to remain stalled. The reason is that there were expectations but nothing has changed in terms of economic environment for business," Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director, CMIE told ET. 
 
Vyas added that the corporate profitability had declined sharply as the industry was postponing execution of larger projects, thinking why spend now when you can spend later. 
 
Projects are stalled due to lack of regulatory clearances, financing hurdles and unfavourable market conditions. As per the monitoring agency, the abandoned projects are stalled projects where the promoters have quit. 
 
ET reported that there was a silver lining for the new government when it came to number of projects revived, which increased from 119 in 2013-14 fiscal to 161 in 2014-15. This number was the highest in the quarter ending September 30, 2014 at 49. 
 
“When the new government took over, the industry thought clearances would be quicker and there would be some changes. So with such expectations, industry starts reviving smaller projects. At the end of the fiscal, some amount of uncertainty over energy - gas and coal - has also gone. The gas prices have increased and the 
Supreme Court has given a go-ahead for coal block auctions. So these projects are reviving. But the overall stalling rate continues to increase," Vyas told the financial daily. 
 
(Image: Reuters)

Know what may mar Modi’s ease of doing business pitch

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for The New York TimesGoldman Sachs Group chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein.</div></div></div><section><article><div><div><section data-share-hash=""><div>Goldman Sachs just announed a new class of managing directors.</div><div></div><div>Here's the statement:</div></section></div>NEW YORK, November 8, 2017 -- The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today announced that it has selected a new class of Managing Directors, effective from January 1, 2018, the start of the firm's next fiscal year."Our new Managing Directors have demonstrated an outstanding commitment to our people, clients and culture during their tenures at the firm, and we wish them continued success as they take this important next step in their careers," said Lloyd C. 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