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Mumbai: The rupee fell sharply by 15 paise against the US dollar to 83.44 in early trade on Wednesday amid muted trends in the domestic equity markets. However, a decline in the dollar index and a marginal fall in the Brent crude index prevented further losses in the domestic unit, according to experts. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 84.38 -- down 9 paise from its previous close -- and then slid further to 84.44, registering a decline of 15 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee pared its intra-day losses to settle flat at 84.29 against the US dollar. "The <keyword id="24182640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banking-liquidity" source="keywords">Indian banking liquidity</keyword> fell into deficit as industry players paid Rs 1.6-1.8 lakh crore as GST payment. This was after two months that liquidity has fallen into a deficit as the RBI also intervened into forex markets to defend the rupee weighing on liquidity conditions," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "The rupee may be in the broad range of 84.00 to 84.50 in the near term as markets await a slew of data from the US this evening," Bhansali added. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.15 per cent to 106.84. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was marginally down 0.10 per cent to USD 72.74 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex was trading 46.69 points lower, or 0.06 per cent, at 79,957.57 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,157.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 15 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<keyword id="21354159" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-government-bonds" source="keywords">Indian Government Bonds</keyword> are set to be included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, <keyword id="20036608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emerging-Market" source="keywords">Emerging Market</keyword> (GBI-EM) from June 28. The inclusion will take place over a period of 10 months starting June 28, 2024, through to March 31, 2025. India will have a 1% weightage in the <keyword id="19967624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JPMorgan" source="keywords">JPMorgan</keyword> Emerging Market (EM) Bond index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period, at an inclusion rate of about 1% weight per month. The inclusion is estimated to bring $20-25 billion of inflows into the Indian bond market. However, India's index-eligible bonds have already attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September last year. On September 21, 2023, Global index provider JPMorgan announced that it would include Indian government's bonds in its emerging market indices. Only Indian government bonds issued by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) under the <keyword id="12313402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fully-Accessible-Route" source="Orion">Fully Accessible Route</keyword> (FAR) will be included in the indices. All FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be eligible to be included in the JPMorgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond index. In the post-monetary policy press conference on June 7, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank is not worried about the big <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> from global bond inclusion. "The RBI has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also. No worries on that," Das said. Experts believe the index inclusion-related heavy flows is likely to boost demand for Indian government securities in the current fiscal, once short-term liquidity issues in certain papers get sorted. Vishal Gupta, Co-founder of IndiaBonds.com says the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan Index is a watershed moment for the <keyword id="22201110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-income-markets" source="keywords">fixed-income markets</keyword> in India. "This compulsorily puts Indian bond markets on the radar of global bond investors and although initial investments are supposed to be to the tune of $25-30 billion, index inclusion paves the way for this number to keep growing in the next few years," said Vishal Gupta. Gupta further added that it is important to grow the investor base for any market, and index inclusion helps in expanding the number of players, which further benefits everyone in the form of additional market liquidity. "Global investors have been looking to allocate capital to emerging markets given their reluctance to invest in other large countries like Russia or China in the past couple of years. Hence, the timing of this index inclusion is also almost perfect. I reckon investments will start via government bonds initially, but filter into AAA to lower credit ratings as well in the years to come", he continued.

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

<div type="image" title="Data from RBI suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024." msid="115250619" hostid="261" sizebytes="118350" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Data from RBI suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Ye le beta, humare khaandani sone ke gehne. Ise girvi rakhva de, shayad kuch paise aa jaye ghar main.” How many times have we seen similar dialogues repeat itself in Bollywood films of the 70s and 80s—abject poverty and a frail-looking old mother pleading to her son to pawn the family’s heirloom <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> ornaments to a jeweller, all to get a few bucks? Well, if you’d ask that son in 2024, he’d rather hit the loan button on his <keyword id="19977340" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demat" source="keywords">Demat</keyword> account than pawn his mother’s gold jewellery. Given how Indians are rapidly resorting to taking loans against their investments in shares and mutual funds, these might as well be a cherished family heirloom in today’s time. Fair warning though; it's not as if gold and loans against it are going down in India’s lending scene. It's very much the opposite, shining brighter than ever! The secured loan category is having its time in the spotlight, and people are certainly looking beyond land and property to get their hands on some extra monies! But what is funding the steep rise behind these loans? And are they as failsafe and secure as they’re made out to be? We decode for you in this week’s Simply Put. <h2>The great Indian pawning party</h2>Pawning one’s gold has been, by far, the OG Indian financial move to get a loan. That continues well into 2024, and apparently, more so when India decides to wed and celebrate! Data from <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024. It looks like Gold took the motto of rise and shine too seriously! Table 1: Growth in gold loans <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Amount (In Rs crore) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2022 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">85,009 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">March 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">89,370 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">97,426 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">March 2024 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,02,562 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2024 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,47,081 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> Source: RBI data While the world continues to be riled up in multiple geopolitical crises in 2024, gold has been making merry of these tough times. Thus far this year, domestic gold prices have grown by 23%, outperforming benchmark indices like Nifty and Sensex by a mile, which have gone up by 9.85% and 8.86%, respectively. The growth in gold loan disbursal rates month on month this year could also put Nifty and Sensex’s growth to shame. In just September 2024, gold loans grew an astounding 51%, up from 40.9% in August, 30.5% in June, and just 14.8% in March. <h2>Hey, wait up for me, says <keyword id="23953567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="las" source="keywords">LAS</keyword></h2>In lockstep with the elder, gold loan sibling, advances against shares and bonds have also been inching up since 2022. Data from RBI (Reserve Bank of India) notes that as of September 2022, the outstanding quantum of loans that were taken against shares (LAS) and bonds stood at Rs 7,397.94 crores. This inched up to Rs 7,764 crore in September 2023. Come 2024, and it looked like this was LAS’ time to shine. Loans swiftly skyrocketed, with outstanding loans in this category going up from Rs 8,492 crore in March 2022 to a staggering Rs 9,546 crore at the end of September 2024. Naturally, the smoke of LAS has its fire in the record inflows that Indians are pouring into the stock market and mutual funds month on month. Per AMFI (<keyword id="20090034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="association-of-mutual-funds" source="keywords">Association of Mutual Funds</keyword> in India), the net AUM (assets under management) of India’s mutual fund industry grew to Rs 67,25,614.61 crores in October 2024, up from Rs 67,09,259.24 crores in September 2024. Even the number of retail mutual fund folios, which include equity, hybrid, and solution-oriented mutual funds, burgeoned to 17,23,52,296 in October, as compared to 16,81,61,366 in September. The same goes for stock investments in India, where the number of new demat accounts that are added every month just simply refuses to climb down. As of last month, total demat accounts in the country stood at 17.9 crore, which is more than the entire population of full-fledged nations like Japan (12.45 crore), Russia (14.38 crore), and Bangladesh (17.3 crore). In fact, since February this year, the monthly growth of LAS has been hitting double digits. From 11.3% in March to 21.6% in May to 26.8% in August, growth in LAS has been exceptional, hitting 22.9% in September this year. For context, monthly growth in the LAS segment was at a mere 5% in September 2023. <h2>What's driving the growth?</h2>It's a win-win for both the bank and the customer. Customers love them because LAS is available at a lower interest rate compared to unsecured personal loans. You can get a loan at an interest rate of anywhere between 9 and 12% by pledging your gold, MF units, or shares. Compare this to over 10-28% rates, which is the range where unsecured personal loans charge interest. Banks love <keyword id="827883" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="secured-loans" source="Orion">secured loans</keyword> since they are well-secured. In case you default on paying back, the bank can sell off your gold, shares, or mutual fund units to recover the amount. This takes a lot of stress off the banks, which are already dealing with secured loans’ riskier sibling-unsecured lending. High NPAs (non-performing assets) and non-payments in the unsecured borrowing space have already put RBI on red alert, which is why the apex bank is tightening the screws on unsecured lending, which was well on its way to becoming a ticking time bomb. As a result, credit growth has moderated to 12.8% YoY in October, as against the 19.3% rise recorded in the year-ago period. Yet it's not like the banks won't feel the heat. Analysts at Nomura note that personal loan delinquencies in India that have been overdue by over 90 days rose to 5.1% in the last financial year, as opposed to just 3.9% in the year prior. <h2>How does it work?</h2>Both these loans work on a similar principle: Your loan amount is equal to a certain percentage of the actual market value of your asset. This is known as the <keyword id="20051485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ltv" source="keywords">LTV</keyword> (loan-to-value ratio). In the case of gold and debt mutual funds, RBI mandates that this LTV be about 75-80%. So, for every Rs 100 of gold or debt mutual fund unit you pledge, your maximum loan amount cannot exceed Rs 80. If you pledge gold, which has a market value of Rs 10 lakh, you can take a loan of up to Rs 8,00,000. In the case of shares and mutual fund units, this limit is set at 50%. So, your shares worth Rs 5,00,000 can only get you a loan worth Rs 2,50,000. But the bright side? You can continue earning returns on your investments and pay interest only on the amount you use, since this loan works as an overdraft facility. <h2>Super safe, you say?</h2>Interest rates on both of these loans are very much dependent on the market value of the asset, which wildly fluctuates on a day-to-day basis. So, in case the value of your asset falls, you’ll have to keep a margin or more of the same asset in order to continue with the loan and maintain the LTV balance. Failure to do so could mean the bank can even sell off your asset. Says financial planner Nema Chaya Buch. “Yes, LAS offers easy availability of funds since these loans come with a lower interest rate as compared to personal loans. Also, you continue to earn average returns of 10–13% on your equity investments. But the downside is, in case of emergency, those pledged securities cannot be sold. Also, if the equity market goes down, then the bank may ask for additional collateral. Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management notes that taking a LAS is best when the value of your securities has appreciated significantly. “This allows you to maximize the loan amount based on your collateral while also addressing financial needs without having to liquidate your investment portfolio. However, there are notable disadvantages to consider. The market risk is significant; a substantial decline in market value could lead to margin calls, which may incur fees and charges if there are delays or prepayments, ultimately increasing the effective cost of borrowing. Furthermore, failure to make timely payments could result in the loss of your assets.”. Umesh Mohanan, ED &amp; CEO, of Indel Money, cautions that one should have a sufficient quantity of gold to get the loan amount one wants. "According to the current RBI rules, the loan applicant/borrower can draw up to 75% of the total market value of the collateral/gold jewellery. So, always carry a sufficient quantity of gold based on one’s loan requirement. “The most important thing is that the valuation of the gold depends on the purity of the gold. If the borrower pledges gold with higher purity, such as 24 carats or 22 carats, he will get the maximum loan amount," he adds.

Simply Put: Secured Loans 2.0 — why more and more Indians are turning to gold, shares and mutual funds to get loans

<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="90" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its three-day meeting on Monday amid expectations of a smaller 25 basis points rate increase or a pause on the rate hiking spree that started in May last year to check inflation. The decision of the six-member rate setting panel will be announced by the Governor on Wednesday. With retail inflation showing signs of moderation and remaining below the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s 6 per cent upper tolerance level, and projected slowdown in GDP growth in the next fiscal starting April, experts are of the opinion that the central <keyword id="15308630" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bank" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="finance,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="93495953" meta.seopath="b/bank" meta.entityname="Bank" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="bank">bank</keyword> may only opt for a 25 basis points hike in the key interest rate. Another opinion is that the RBI may press the pause button on rate hike on Wednesday itself. "We expect the RBI to pause in February policy," <keyword id="6354731" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="state bank of india" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.entityid="11984" meta.seoname="state-bank-of-india">State Bank of India</keyword>'s Economic Research Department said in a report titled 'Prelude to MPC Meeting on Feb 6-8, 2023'. In the current rate cycle, it said that rate actions, both hikes and cuts, have been largely synchronised with actions of the monetary authorities in the developed nations. The stance, the <keyword id="13222" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="sbi" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.entityid="11984" meta.seoname="state-bank-of-india">SBI</keyword> report said could continue to be withdrawal of accommodation, even as <keyword id="15316241" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Liquidity" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="l/liquidity" meta.entityname="Liquidity" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="liquidity">liquidity</keyword> is close to neutral. "Even though the RBI could pause as it allows past rate actions to work with long and variable lags, the RBI could still guide the markets with a rate action in future that will be purely data dependent," it said. According to the report, 6.25 per cent <keyword id="15378998" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Repo-Rate" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,budget,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="r/repo-rate" meta.entityname="Repo Rate" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="repo-rate">repo rate</keyword> could be the terminal rate for now. In its December monetary policy review, the central bank raised the key <keyword id="15316469" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Benchmark" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="mutual-fund,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="b/benchmark" meta.entityname="Benchmark" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="benchmark">benchmark</keyword> interest rate (repo) by 35 basis points (bps) after delivering three back-to-back increases of 50 bps. Since May last year, the RBI has increased the short-term lending rate by 225 basis points to contain inflation, mostly driven by external factors, especially global <keyword id="15312689" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Supply" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="93027566" meta.seopath="s/supply" meta.entityname="Supply" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="supply">supply</keyword> chain disruption following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at <keyword id="6358007" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="bank of baroda" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.entityid="12040" meta.seoname="bank-of-baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the <keyword id="15313867" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Credit" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="finance,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="92548261" meta.seopath="c/credit" meta.entityname="Credit" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="credit">credit</keyword> policy will be announced against the background of both the Budget that was presented as well as the Economic Survey that served as the prelude to it. The Budget has maintained a virtually unchanged borrowing programme while the Survey has pointed to the persistence of higher interest rates in the coming year. While inflation has been trending downwards, there has been a tendency for <keyword id="15376162" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Core-Inflation" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="c/core-inflation" meta.entityname="Core Inflation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="core-inflation">core inflation</keyword> to remain sticky. Inflation has come down mainly due to lower food inflation which can be volatile. Also, the decision taken this time cannot be reversed soon, he said. "Under these conditions, the RBI will pitch for another 25 bps hike in the repo rate which will be the last in this cycle, and then pause. The stance however may change from the withdrawal of accommodation to neutral as liquidity is no longer in a large surplus. In fact, based on developments that take place, there may be need to infuse liquidity during the course of the year," Sabnavis opined. The RBI has been tasked to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent. However, it failed to keep the inflation rate below six per cent for three consecutive quarters beginning January 2022. However, the retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown signs of moderation in November and December as it fell below the RBI's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. The MPC consists of three RBI officials and three external members appointed by the central government. The external members are Shashanka Bhide (Honorary Senior Advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Ashima Goyal (Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai); and Jayanth R Varma (Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad). Apart from the Governor, the RBI officials on the panel are Rajiv Ranjan (Executive Director) and Michael Debabrata Patra (Deputy Governor). SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/gold-plunges-574-silver-plummets-2113-amid-weak-global-trends/articleshow/97644748.cms">Gold plunges ₹574, silver plummets ₹2,113 amid weak global trends</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/bandhan-bank-hikes-interest-rates-on-fixed-deposits/articleshow/97646005.cms">Bandhan Bank hikes interest rates on fixed deposits</a>

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting starts amid expectations of lower rate hike

Come the 18th of September, you'll find most newspapers and TV channels strutting to cover the impact of the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fed" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Fed" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Fed">Fed</keyword>'s potential rate change on Indian stock markets. Policymakers there have held the central bank's interest stable since July last year, within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, to dash down inflationary pressures gripping the <keyword id="20335130" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-economy" source="keywords">US economy</keyword>. This much criticised wait-and-watch approach, after the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fed" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Fed" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Fed">Fed</keyword> held the rates stable in its most recent meeting in July, seems to be yielding some fruits now. US consumer price index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) slowed down to 2.5% in August, down from 2.9% in July. With inflationary pressures approaching the 2% target mandated by Fed, experts were hoping of a 50-basis point reduction in interest rates this time. However, employment data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics this month painted a less than rosy picture. Little has changed in August for unemployment rates and numbers, which stood at 4.2% and 7.1 million respectively. If anything, the numbers were elevated from year-ago period, when jobless rate was 3.8% and the number of unemployed people stood at 6.3 million. Experts now believe a 25-basis point reduction in interest rates is imminent, since some positive changes were seen on the employment front. The total number of nonfarm payroll employment jumped by 1,42,000 in August, but still stayed well below the average monthly gain of 2,02,000 Says Raj Patel, CMO at MintCFD, a trading platform, "A 25 bps could show muted results from the market, however, a major rate cut in the magnitude of 50 bps could generate negative reactions, since it might show that the Fed is signaling major concerns about the economic outbreak. Indicators such as the retail sales, consumer confidence index, and services PMI are on a positive note. The Fed is focusing more on employment as the average US unemployment rate over the last three months, up to July, has increased by 0.5% as compared to the lowest point in the past year". But why are <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> always so jittery about interest rate changes in the US? And should you be worried? We decode it for you. Rate hike and cuts impacts foreign investments Generally, large institutional investors borrow funds from the US and other developed economies, and invest in India, China and other emerging countries, anticipating economic growth, and hence, potential for increased returns in the times to come. This influx of funds is crucial for growing countries, since they use it to develop their infrastructure, which will in turn, bolster their economic growth. The cost of raising funds from countries like US is relatively cheaper, given the interest rates here are not very high. On the other hand, borrowing costs in emerging countries like India are higher. At present, India's repo, or borrowing rate, at which banks borrow funds from <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>, stands at 6.5%. While this may seem like a trivial difference, it decides the fate of trillions of dollars of investments. Even a 25-basis point hike or cut could bring about a significant difference when such huge sums are involved. So, when Fed decides to hold the interest rate stable, or hike the same, it makes borrowing to invest in international markets expensive for investors. At the same time, it makes investing in US treasury bonds more lucrative and economically favorable, since investors are set to earn higher returns from them. As a result, investors rush to withdraw their money from other economies, and invest it in their own country i.e. the US. For instance, in January 2024, Fed decides to keep the interest rate stable between the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. As a result, <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> saw an outflux of foreign investment that month, with investors withdrawing Rs 6,593 crores from markets. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed hiked interest rates about 11 times. As a result, during FY23, foreign investors remained net sellers, liquidating Rs 40,936 crore from Indian markets. When Fed decides to slash rates, which makes borrowing cheaper, investors are encouraged to raise more funds, and invest more heavily in developing countries. This anticipation of funds stimulate the stock markets in a positive manner, which is why it is beneficial situation for countries like India, which, eventually, see greater investments from US and other economies. China and India are generally seen as favorite destinations for investors. With the Chinese economy in doldrums at the moment, India can expect higher foreign direct investments (FDI) in the months to come. Just yesterday, China cut down interest rates on about $5 trillion worth of its outstanding loans, in a bid to spur consumption and borrowing in the economy. But do not expect any immediate boosts in the equity market, as many experts caution. There have been many instances in the past where rate cuts did not boost equities immediately. This is because rate cuts are not the sole factor driving investments. If the corporates report slowed earnings, or weak growth, investors are bound to be discouraged from investing in the country. Your best bet is to invest in sectors which have traditionally withstood market downturns, like insurance, telecoms and pharmaceuticals, and reduce exposure to sectors which are significantly affected by market cycles (think PSUs, auto, metals etc).

You Searched For "Indian banking liquidity" and got 6 results

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