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<ul><li>India Meteorological Department has issued high alerts for six of its districts including Idukki, Malappuram, and Wayanad. </li><li>A red alert will be in effect in Idukki and Malappuram districts on 18 July. </li><li>Whereas, IMD predicted heavy rainfall for Kannur and Wayanad along with Idukki and Malappuram on 19 July. </li></ul>A second spell of monsoon is likely to bring extremely heavy rains in the coming days in Kerala. India Meteorological Department has issued high alerts for six of its districts including Idukki, Malappuram, and Wayanad. A red alert will be in effect in Idukki and Malappuram districts on 18 July. Whereas, IMD predicted heavy rainfall for Kannur and Wayanad along with Idukki and Malappuram on 19 July. Apart from this, Thrissur, Emakulam, Idukki and Malappuram are likely to receive heavy rainfall on 20 July. “Since there are possibilities of flooding and landslides, people have been asked to be extremely cautious and take necessary precautions to keep themselves safe,” Chief Minister <keyword id="6356705" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="pinarayi-vijayan">Pinarayi Vijayan</keyword> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pg/PinarayiVijayan/posts/?ref=page_internal">said in a Facebook post</a>. Kerala is still reeling from last year’s massive floods, which was its worst ever in a 100 years. It just received its first tranche of $250 million of the $500 million fund by World Bank for the Resilient Kerala Programme (RKP). The fund is to help the flood-affected state brace against natural disasters. The worst ever flood in a century God’s own country, Kerala is called, has been on the receiving end of the nature. Last year in August, when Kerala was still rejoicing the end of a three year drought, heavy rains lashed the state. Soon, they ballooned into floods and landslides that killed more than five hundred, and millions were displaced. It took nearly a month for the Army, Navy, Air Force and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) to carry out rescue operations and restore normalcy. The state authorities estimated that the floods has caused a loss of over ₹19,500 crore — 15% of the state’s GDP estimate for 2018-19. With only<a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/coverage/climate-change/this-is-why-kerala-floods-were-the-worst-in-a-century-61491"> 14.52% of its area reported as flood prone</a>, Kerala wasn’t prepared for the disaster. And the worst hit in the disaster were the laborers, claimed a risk management agency Care Ratings. People<a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/coverage/climate-change/this-is-why-kerala-floods-were-the-worst-in-a-century-61491"> lost as much as ₹4,000 crore wages</a> in August alone. During the floods, more than a million people were stranded at relief camps that foot a bill of ₹300 crore a month. The worst hit areas were Idukki, Wayanad, Mallapuram, <keyword id="6354399" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kozhikode">Kozhikode</keyword> and <keyword id="110285" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Palakkad">Palakkad</keyword>, each of which received much more rainfall than normal.

The weatherman has warned of heavy rains in Kerala, which just got $250 million World Bank aid to recover from last year's floods

The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

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The weatherman has warned of heavy rains in Kerala, which just got $250 million World Bank aid to recover from last year's floods

Preeti Soni

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

PTI

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