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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese markets rose after Trump's US election victory, despite tariff threats.</li><li>The markets boost comes as China is reportedly considering a $1.4 trillion debt plan.</li></ul>China's stock markets climbed higher on Thursday following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.The rise comes despite campaign pledges from Trump, a China hawk, to slap <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">a 10% blanket tariff</a> on all imported goods. He has threatened tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods.On Thursday, China shares rose with the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300 Index,</a> closing 3% higher. Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> closed 2% up.Market sentiment was buoyant amid hopes for news of a stimulus plan from the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress' going meeting, which ends on Friday."The odds for a larger policy support package will rise somewhat with a Trump victory," wrote Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-does-trump-mean-for-china-ot/">ING bank,</a> on Wednesday.China's top legislative body is considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported last week, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.Thursday's optimism in the Chinese markets contrasted with lackluster performance in Japan and South Korea, where the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">Kospi Index</a> ended the day little changed.Analysts are also watching to see if Beijing will devalue the Chinese yuan now that Trump has won."Beijing might look to devalue the yuan as they did in 2018-2019 to counter tariff effects and boost export competitiveness," wrote Dilin Wu, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone, on Wednesday.However, this risks inflation and capital outflows in China, she added. The country is facing multiple economic challenges amid a real-estate crisis and high youth unemployment.On Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://camlmac.pbc.gov.cn/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125217/125925/5499916/index.html">China</a> lowered its daily reference rate for the yuan to the lowest since late 2023.<h2 id="6256c5a9-f87f-4923-8fc5-278ad2fd51e1">China is preparing for Trump for 2.0 but still lacks leverage</h2>Despite the market optimism in China, analysts say Beijing could face a tough trade landscape."I think the challenge here is that China is still at a structural disadvantage in a trade war because they lack the symmetrical space," said Rick Waters, the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice, at a press briefing on Thursday about the global implications of the US elections."They lack the ability to put tariffs on the US when the US does that to them," added Waters, who was the US State Department's top China policy official under the Biden administration.In Trump's first term, the US and China slapped retaliatory tariffs on each other. But Beijing is now left with "very little" to work with.However, over the last four years, Waters said Beijing has developed a framework of sanctions for individuals and companies that align with US policies that are anathema to China's interests. The moves include more export controls, including for critical minerals and rare earths."The first trade war was a game changer; many companies were caught off guard, and investors were left scrambling," wrote ING's Song."This time around, Trump's proposed tariffs have been in consideration for some time and should come as no major surprise," he added.

As Trump threatens tariffs on China, the Chinese market pins its hopes on a massive stimulus announcement

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election sent Chinese shares lower on fears of upcoming tariffs.</li><li>Hong Kong's major index saw especially deep losses.</li></ul>Chinese markets aren't celebrating Trump's presidential win.Hong Kong absorbed most of the fallout, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index dropping 2.6% on Wednesday. China's CSI 300 slid 0.5% after declining as much as 1% at intraday lows.Wednesday's sell-off reflects heightened fear that global trade relations with the US could turn sour in Trump's second term. Analysts have warned of impending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">trade wars</a> if the president-elect fulfills his promise to implement universal tariffs, pledging 60% duties on Chinese exports."We believe that tariffs are the most potentially consequential policy from an economic perspective," UBS wrote in a note Wednesday. "The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China."This fresh uncertainty also weighed on international currencies. China's offshore yuan notched its largest one-day drop since October 2022, falling as much as 1.3% against the US dollar.Still, the impact on China's mainland stock market was mute compared to its Hong Kong counterpart as investors awaited an expected stimulus boost on Friday.Bank of America expects Beijing to announce 6 trillion worth of yuan in bond issuance over three years to swap local government debt. If so, this would signal more willingness by the central government to take on more fiscal responsibility, analysts wrote on Tuesday — a "welcoming gesture" for markets.

Chinese stocks drop as Trump's presidency spells more tariff risk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese stocks are poised for a huge run-up in the next year, according to Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf.</li><li>The research firm CEO said perfect conditions are aligning for additional gains exceeding 50%.</li></ul>China's stock rally isn't over — and the nation could have the perfect cocktail of ingredients to stage a monster run-up over the next year, according to one Wall Street forecaster.Jeff deGraaf, the CEO of Renaissance Macro Research, says he sees China's benchmark stock index climbing to 6,000 over the next year. That implies a 54% increase from the CSI 300's current levels, thanks to the right mix of conditions in Beijing that should power equities higher, he told Bloomberg on Friday."Skepticism, valuation, stimulus, momentum and a trend change," deGraaf said of China's investing environment, adding that it was "one of the best set-ups" he's seen over his 35-year career.Chinese stocks have been on a roller coaster in recent weeks after Beijing announced its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">monetary stimulus package</a>, which included lowering interest rates and pumping the stock market with $114 billion. The package sparked the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-economy-stimulus-liqudity-overwhelm-system-2024-9">steepest rally in Chinese stocks since 2008</a> before it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">quickly fizzled</a>, a sign investors were disappointed Beijing didn't announce more stimulus measures.Markets, though, are expecting the nation to announce a fresh fiscal stimulus package at a briefing on Saturday, potentially reviving the bull case for stocks. Most investors expect China to add 2 trillion yuan, or $283 billion, in fiscal stimulus through 2025, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/bofa-s-hartnett-says-buying-any-dips-as-china-mulls-stimulus">Bloomberg poll</a> of market participants."We see the policy response as self-preservation, a reaction to the weakness and a potential Mario Draghi-esque 'Do what it takes' moment for China," deGraaf said, later urging investors to "keep stops in place" when betting on Chinese stocks.Other traders on Wall Street have shown interest in buying the dip in Chinese equities, despite fear that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">Beijing's economic slowdown</a> could stick around.Investors poured a record $39.1 billion into Chinese stock funds in the week ending October 9, according to EPFR Global data cited by Bank of America in a note."We buy any China dips," BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. Stimulus efforts will continue to "be used aggressively to boost domestic animal spirits and demand," he added.Additionally, the Shenzhen Huaan Hexin Private Investment Fund Management Co., a Chinese hedge fund up 800% since 2017, also says it's buying the dip in technology stocks listed in Hong Kong. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> has dropped 3% over the last five trading days, but is still up 27% from levels at the start of the year."Such a correction is more like a buying opportunity," Yuan Wei, the fund's founder, said in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/hedge-fund-up-800-in-seven-years-buys-dip-in-china-tech-stocks">interview</a> with Bloomberg this week. "If you compare to their fundamentals, the stocks remain very cheap."China's onshore market has a 50% chance of starting a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-outlook-bullish-drivers-stimulus-goldman-sachs-2024-10">new bull run</a>, as opposed to a short-term bounce, and the bear market in equities should be over by now, Yuan said."The market is just rebounding from an extremely bearish level to a level that's still undervalued," he later added.Other strategists on Wall Street have made bullish calls on Chinese equities in recent weeks, with eyes on continued stimulus measures in Beijing. Goldman Sachs predicted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-outlook-bullish-drivers-stimulus-goldman-sachs-2024-10">China's stock market could rally another 20%</a>, thanks to "more substantial policy measures" and Chinese stocks being oversold, strategists said in a note.

Why Chinese stocks will climb another 50% from current levels, research CEO says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors shouldn't be putting their money in Chinese stocks for the long term, according to Kyle Bass.</li><li>The "Big Short" investor pointed to the long-running stagnation in Chinese stocks.</li></ul>Investing in China over the long term is nothing short of a bad idea, according to "Big Short" investor Kyle Bass.The Hayman Capital founder said he's still bearish on China, despite the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-package-exciting-us-investors-consumer-issues-2024-9">historic run-up in Chinese stocks</a> after Beijing unveiled a fresh stimulus package. That's because investing in China hasn't paid off for the last decade, he said, noting that Chinese stocks have only posted gains for five out of the last 20 years.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a>, which is made up of the largest Hong-Kong listed companies, climbed 16% in just five days after China's initial stimulus announcement. That brought the gauge to around the same level it was trading at 15 years ago, Bass noted, meaning investors who plowed cash into those stocks back then have barely made money."Typically, the biggest rallies are counter-trend rallies, and China's trend is just been down for so many years," Bass said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT6Gl4uXV88">CNBC</a> on Tuesday. "Investing in communism has never worked in the long run."Investors avoiding Chinese stocks also don't have to worry about geopolitical tensions surrounding the country, such as possible conflict between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/three-ways-china-could-blockade-taiwan-2024-8">Beijing and Taiwan</a>, as well as the nation's growing partnership with other countries, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">Russia</a>, Bass said."Do I think that the rally could continue? Do I think that stocks could go up more? The answer's yes, but I equate it to picking up dimes in front of bulldozers," he said.Bass added: "Could a communist government goose its market a little more, make it go up? Yes, absolutely. And if you're a trader, more power to you. If you invest in communism in the long run, you'll lose every time."Bass has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-boss-kyle-bass-attacks-china-over-organ-harvesting-2019-6">bearish on China</a> for years, previously shorting the Chinese yuan before closing his position in 2019. In the past, he's told his Twitter followers it was time to "completely cut ties" with China's Communist party, and has called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1655764236491161600">attention</a> to the ongoing Uyghur genocide.

Investing in China's stock market is like 'picking up dimes in front of bulldozers' given the nation's long-running stagnation, 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese property stocks climbed 7% on Monday three major cities eased homebuying rules.</li><li>The surge comes amid an economic-stimulus blitz that started last week.</li></ul>Chinese property stocks got some positive news on Monday as three major cities announced easing of home-purchase restrictions.The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index soared 7% in Chinese trading. The climb was led by real-estate developers like Hong Kong-listed Longfor Group Holdings and Hang Lung Properties, which were up roughly 10% and 12%, respectively.The surge comes after the cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou loosened homebuying restrictions, and after nation's central bank said it will allow refinancing of mortgages. The moves are part of China's new stimulus package meant to reinvigorate its slowing economy and weak property sector.In Guangzhou, policymakers eliminated all restrictions on homebuying, removing evaluations of buyer eligibility and limitations on the number of properties owned.The Sunday move made the port city the first major city to ease restrictions following the national government's pledge last week to make the property sector "stop declining."Previously, Guangzhou required migrant families to pay taxes or social insurance for at least six months before purchasing a maximum of two homes.Shanghai and Shenzhen, meanwhile, also said they would ease restrictions for non-local buyers. Shanghai decreased the required tax-paying period from three years to one year, and Shenzhen increased the number of homes migrant families can buy from one home to two.Shanghai and Shenzhen also announced plans to decrease the minimum downpayment ratios for first homes to no lower than 15%.Shenzhen also allowed local buyers to purchase more properties, allowing purchases of one more apartment in some districts, compared to previous restrictions of a maximum of two homes for families and one for individuals.The central bank, meanwhile, announced plans to refinance existing mortgages, with homeowners able to renegotiate terms with their lenders starting November 1. That brings lower costs for $5.3 trillion in mortgages.The moves come after leaders in Beijing unveiled <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stock-market-bazooka-liquidity-stimulus-sparks-panic-speculation-2024-9#:~:text=China%20is%20eying%20a%20GDP,will%20be%20difficult%20to%20achieve.">aggressive stimulus measures</a> to support China's struggling economy in a rare move last week.China's economy has faced weak consumer demand in recent months, and continues to face headwinds from its struggling property sector, which has seen <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3">slowing property sales</a>, high vacancy rates in its existing supply, and huge <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/evergrande-ordered-liquidate-china-real-estate-property-crisis-winners-assets-2024-1#:~:text=Evergrande's%20liquidation%20comes%20as%20China's%20economy%20faces%20significant%20headwinds%20from,dash%20for%20the%20exit%20door.">developer defaults</a>.With the sector accounting for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-real-estate-property-banks-crisis-debt-default-2024-1">nearly a third of the country's GDP</a>, recovering it is crucial for the country to hit its "around 5%" year-end growth target, which analysts have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">previously said is unlikely</a>.The newest policies are a good start at easing those headwinds, but analysts warn that the policies could take time to actually see an impact."It may take time and could still prove challenging to turn around residents' bearish views with existing policies," Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Cheung wrote in a Sunday note.The new policies helped fuel a broader stock market rally, with mainland China's benchmark CSI 300 closing 8.5% higher on Monday in its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-boost-economy-stock-market-bazooka-stimulus-sentiment-rally-pboc-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qxyjdx*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzcwMzU4Mi4yMDIuMS4xNzI3NzAzODQzLjUzLjAuMA..">biggest daily gain since 2008</a>.

Chinese property stocks surge after 3 major cities relax restrictions on homebuying

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stock markets surged this week, marking the best weekly performance since late 2008.</li><li>The rally was driven by Beijing's aggressive stimulus measures to boost the struggling economy.</li></ul>China's stock markets closed sharply higher Friday, notching their best week in 16 years as investors joined the rally party.The euphoria was thanks to Beijing's big-bang stimulus announcement on Tuesday, which showed the authorities' urgent and concerted commitment to boosting its ailing economy.Since Tuesday, Chinese authorities have flooded the market with announcements of interest rate cuts, bank reserve ratio reductions, liquidity injections, and pledges to boost fiscal spending. The stimulus blitz has jolted investors into buying into the previously downtrodden market."The ante has been upped on China stimulus. Forget just monetary 'bazooka,' Beijing is mobilizing the fiscal arsenal too," wrote Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia, excluding Japan, in a Friday note.He added that this is "as close as Beijing gets to guns blazing." And markets have reacted by swinging from "despondency to delirium."Mainland China's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300 index</a> closed 4.5% higher on Friday, its best week since November 2008.Meanwhile, Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> closed 3.6% higher in its best performance since 2009.<h2 id="873d4d1f-efda-4b09-8baa-171092af49d4">The stock market party overwhelmed tech systems</h2>The stock market party got too hot to handle."Due to surging trading volume, the Shanghai exchange and brokers report some trades have been delayed," Hao Hong, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/HAOHONG_CFA/status/1839498669864923621">posted on X.</a>"The trading system is simply overwhelmed. There is a huge stampede of stock bulls," added Hong.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.sse.com.cn/disclosure/announcement/general/c/c_20240927_10762480.shtml">Shanghai Stock Exchange</a> said in an announcement that it was investigating the delays.The market euphoria — now into its fourth day — came despite reservations about China's aggressive stimulus that it rolled out on Tuesday — which some analysts suggested <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stock-market-bazooka-liquidity-stimulus-sparks-panic-speculation-2024-9">panic in Beijing</a> over the state of the world's second-largest economy.China's economy has struggled to sustain its growth momentum since the pandemic ended. It is battling multiple challenges, including an epic property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation.While Chinese authorities have introduced support measures earlier, its stock markets couldn't sustain gains convincingly following a massive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-meltdown-brutal-year-explainer-whats-happening-2024-1">meltdown</a> at the beginning of the year — a stark contrast to the hot money flowing elsewhere like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-rally-sp500-recession-china-economy-interest-rates-2024-5">US, Japan, and India.</a>"Investors we spoke to generally have low conviction in the sustainability of the rally," acknowledged Bank of America analysts in a Friday note. However, the bank is more optimistic."Chinese financial regulators rarely encourage banks/financial institutions to increase leverage for the stock market but are doing so this time," the Bank of America analysts wrote, referring to Beijing's announcements of swap and re-lending facilities for stock buybacks.Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, which has historically benefited Chinese markets, they added.So even if Beijing's stimulus isn't enough for China's economy, a liquidity or leverage-driven market rally could still be "very powerful," they wrote.There's historical precedence, the Bank of America analysts added.The CSI 300 index more than doubled from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the first half of 2015 after Beijing used <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-mini-stimulus-2014-4">government stimulus</a> to arrest a slowdown. This preceded economic recovery that did not happen until the second half of 2016.<h2 id="a014ea6a-41e1-4a13-af63-bbc31fd09242">Top-down direction matters a lot in China</h2>Despite reservations about whether China's stimulus is enough — and if the current market rally is sustainable — it does look like Beijing is ready to do whatever it takes to revive its economy and markets.On Tuesday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/fabu/202409/content_6976186.htm">People's Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng</a> said at his stimulus announcement that authorities stand ready to inject more liquidity into the system if the support measures for swap and re-lending for share buybacks — collectively at $800 billion yuan, or $114 billion, prove successful."Indeed, while this isn't QE, moral suasion in China has somewhat more force than elsewhere. " wrote Global Data.TS Lombard economists Freya Beamish and Rory Green in a note on Thursday, referring to quantitative easing.After all, "Chinese companies live and die based on whether they are singled out as policy favorites, CEOs sometimes literally," they added.

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As Trump threatens tariffs on China, the Chinese market pins its hopes on a massive stimulus announcement

Huileng Tan

Chinese stocks drop as Trump's presidency spells more tariff risk

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Why Chinese stocks will climb another 50% from current levels, research CEO says

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Investing in China's stock market is like 'picking up dimes in front of bulldozers' given the nation's long-running stagnation, 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says

Jennifer Sor

Chinese property stocks surge after 3 major cities relax restrictions on homebuying

Kelly Cloonan

China's stock markets are partying like it's 2008, overwhelming systems

Huileng Tan

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