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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is flooding Ukraine with men and equipment, but that should soon slow, analyst Michael Kofman said.</li><li>Its high losses indicate its military is strained under its current level of aggression, he told the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ukraine-war-why-russia-is-in-more-trouble-than-it-looks.html">Intelligencer.</a></li></ul>Russia's numbers advantage against Ukraine is likely to start diminishing as soon as the end of this year, said US-based military analyst Michael Kofman.Speaking to Intelligencer's Benjamin Hart in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ukraine-war-why-russia-is-in-more-trouble-than-it-looks.html">interview published on Tuesday</a>, Kofman said that while the Kremlin has sustained pressure on Ukraine while suffering high levels of attrition, it's now starting to struggle under "very significant constraints.""And if anything, its advantage on the battlefield is likely to decline as we get into this winter and look further ahead into 2025," said Kofman, a Kyiv-born senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace whose work focuses on Russia.Kofman was careful to tell Hart that he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">didn't think Russia would soon run out of equipment or men</a>. But he believes that Moscow can't keep up its offensive pace for long.Such a development could be a ray of hope for Ukraine, which faces a slow yet brutal Russian advance in the east, largely attributed to Moscow expending vastly more manpower and military hardware.<h2 id="8964082f-55d3-469c-a404-42e92c794a3b">Russia's equipment can't last forever</h2>Kofman's first explanation is that Moscow has been replacing high equipment losses with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-equipment-losses-attrition-rates-2024-2">Soviet-era weaponry</a>, but even these reserve stocks can't last forever."Russia is eating through its Soviet legacy, and its rate of equipment production is quite low relative to the numbers being lost on the battlefield," he said."What it does mean is that the Russian military has increasingly been forced to adjust tactics to minimize their losses," he added. "And that also reduces their ability to achieve any operationally meaningful breakthroughs."<h2 id="0cb4b224-a0e7-4613-9a98-5d52ca51e7de">High payouts show recruitment is under strain</h2>Kofman also believes that the Russian government can't sustain the surge in bonuses and benefits it's offering en masse to new recruits.As it continues trying to overwhelm Ukraine by flooding the battlefield with troops, Russia has been offering abnormally high payouts for new soldiers, such as when <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">Moscow touted sign-up bonuses</a> on par with the US military's in July. And that's for a city where the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://77.rosstat.gov.ru/folder/188598">average wage</a> is less than a fifth of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat39.htm">median wage in the US.</a>"It's clear that at this rate of loss, the Russian contract recruitment campaign is unable to keep up," Kofman said. "This, too, does not mean that Russia is going to run out of manpower, but it's clear that they're struggling."The UK Defense Ministry posted an update on Monday saying it's likely that Russia has suffered its highest daily casualty rate since the war began, with the average scale of losses rising significantly with every passing year. British officials estimated that the Kremlin stands to steadily <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lose-1000-troops-winter-war-three-fronts-uk-mod-2024-10">lose 1,000 troops a day</a> throughout the coming winter, after already sustaining record daily losses in May and September.That's happening as Russia pushes intensely on the eastern front, besieging the key towns of Vuhledar and Pokrovsk in Donetsk while attempting to retake Russian land seized by Ukraine in Kursk.<h2 id="cc60203c-4e63-40a1-b91c-3b718dda03e3">Putin's long-term strategy in question</h2>The battles in the Donbas have been a slog, taking <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vuhledar-seize-key-town-ukraine-2-years-fighting-war-2024-10">more than a year in the case of Vuhledar.</a>While Russian forces have advanced to the limits of Pokrovsk, Kofman told Hart it should take them more than just a few weeks of fighting to conquer the town.His analysis of Russia's pace of fighting presents implications not only for the frontline in Ukraine but also for Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">wartime economy</a>, which Russian leader Vladimir Putin has refocused to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-machine-rebuilt-making-more-ammunition-nato-official-says-2024-7">rely heavily on defense manufacturing</a> after the war began.Draft policy documents <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://en.thebell.io/russia-on-track-to-set-new-military-spending-records/">reported by Russian media</a> in September indicate that authorities plan to continue spending about 40% of the nation's overall budget on its military and national security.Russia posted GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after the pivot, despite international sanctions that the West hoped would scupper its economy. Putin and his administration largely took those numbers as a triumphant sign of Russian resilience.But it's unclear how long Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-tolerance-russian-people-war-spending-sanctions-gdp-2024-2">can maintain that strategy</a>. Some economists say that if the war disappears or production slows down, the defense sector will no longer be able to prop up the Russian economy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">allowing it to slide into a recession.</a>Ukraine's supply of equipment and manpower is also far from assured, with a dependence on the West to send vital weapons and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-manpower-problem-could-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-2024-5">lagging mobilization program</a> that rushed to send reinforcements to the front lines after being enacted years after the war began.Kyiv has, in the meantime, sought to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-makes-homemade-weapons-needs-more-of-key-ingredient-official-2024-7">develop its own formidable defense industry</a> and has been manufacturing missiles, artillery systems, and an array of land, sea, and air drones.

Russia's mass advantage against Ukraine should start declining by 2025, war expert says

Boost in domestic <keyword id="19914449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing" source="keywords">manufacturing</keyword> due to PLI (production linked incentive) schemes and increase in <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> on account of free trade agreements are expected to bridge the country's <keyword id="20201391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-deficit" source="keywords">trade deficit</keyword> further, <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> said on Monday. However, it said that fluctuations in <keyword id="19936629" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commodity-prices" source="keywords">commodity prices</keyword>, especially for critical imports like oil, metals, and agricultural products, can impact India's trade balance and inflation levels. The Survey said that though ongoing geopolitical headwinds impacted India's merchandise exports, lowering international commodity prices ensured a lower trade deficit in FY24 than in FY23. The country's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 240 billion in 2023-24 from USD 265 billion in 2022-23. It added that changes in trade policies by major trading partners or geopolitical developments can affect India's export opportunities and market access. "In the coming years, India's trade deficit is expected to decline further as the <keyword id="19981334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PLI-scheme" source="keywords">PLI scheme</keyword> is expanded and India creates a globally competitive manufacturing base in several product categories," the Survey said. It added that the recently signed FTAs (free trade agreements) are expected to increase the <keyword id="22374533" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-market-share" source="keywords">global market share</keyword> of the country's exports. The PLI scheme for sectors like mobile manufacturing, information technology (IT) hardware, pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and food product are helping to increase manufacturing and cut imports. India has implemented <keyword id="20000557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FTA" source="keywords">FTA</keyword> with Mauritius, Australia and the UAE. It added that a narrowing merchandise trade deficit and rising service exports have improved the CAD (<keyword id="20054874" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-account-deficit" source="keywords">current account deficit</keyword>), ending with a surplus of 0.6 per cent of GDP in Q4 of FY24. However, the risks to the performance of India's external sector are on the downside due to the persistence of current <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword> and policy uncertainty, it said. Some of the challenges listed by the survey includes fall in demand from major trading partners like the US, rise in trade cost, and volatility in commodity prices. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal have resulted in trade flows being re-routed, increasing journey time and costs. India's merchandise trade relies heavily on maritime trade, so disturbances in major shipping routes can impact its economy. "It is critical to explore what these changing paradigms mean for India. Policies need to be a mix that straddles security concerns with economic considerations," the survey said, adding India's push towards manufacturing in complex and niche sectors through schemes such as PLI and Make in India aims to balance these goals. Further, the survey emphasised on the need to focus on improving India's competitiveness in many product areas. For example, it said, India has tremendous potential in becoming a large global exporter in agricultural commodities. Fostering stronger regional trade ties and adding more markets for Indian goods will help mitigate global demand fluctuations. "In an era when global economic growth is likely to be buffeted by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, growing India's exports of goods and services will be a stiffer challenge than before," it cautioned. Commenting on this, Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India, said that despite global uncertainties, India's exports are recording positive growth rates. "That shows the resilience of our exports amidst global uncertainties," she said, adding, "by transforming our export basket and focusing on higher margins and value addition across various sectors, India will easily achieve its ambition of USD 2 trillion in exports by 2030-31."

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Russia's mass advantage against Ukraine should start declining by 2025, war expert says

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