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<keyword id="725142" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fpi" source="Orion">FPI</keyword> <keyword id="48677" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflows" source="Orion">inflows</keyword>, which were negative in the previous three months, have sharply turned positive in December, says V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit <keyword id="6354241" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="Orion">Financial Services</keyword>. Total FPI inflows in December through 22nd is Rs 57,313 crore including the buying through stock exchanges and primary market. The steady decline in the <keyword id="476164" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-bond-yields" source="Orion">US bond yields</keyword> have caused this sudden change in the strategy of FPIs, he said. FPIs were big buyers in financial services. This explains the resilience of this segment in recent days. FPIs also bought in sectors like <keyword id="6425437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="autos" source="Orion">autos</keyword>, <keyword id="81793" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-goods" source="Orion">capital goods</keyword> and telecom, he said. Since 2024 is expected to witness further declines in the US interest rates, FPIs are likely to increase their purchases in 2024 too.

FPIs big buyers in financial services

As of March 2024, <keyword id="21574670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investment" source="keywords">foreign portfolio investment</keyword> (<keyword id="725142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="FPI" source="Orion">FPI</keyword>) ownership in <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> have fallen below 18%, marking a notable shift in investments pattern in the Indian markets. Notably, this has happened for the first time in over 11 years. <keyword id="725142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="FPI" source="Orion">FPI</keyword> in India's <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, reflecting global economic trends and geopolitical events, according to NSE report. Between 2002 and 2015, the <keyword id="22083141" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPI-ownership" source="keywords">FPI ownership</keyword> in the country showed a gradual upward trend, except for a temporary dip during the 2007-08 financial crisis. The subsequent years saw the FPI's share dip marginally, due to global uncertainties such as the US-China trade war and Brexit. Despite a brief resurgence in 2018-19, <keyword id="22083141" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPI-ownership" source="keywords">FPI ownership</keyword> plunged yet again in the first half of 2020, due to the onset of the <keyword id="19955291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COVID-19-pandemic" source="keywords">COVID-19 pandemic</keyword>. However, the situation reversed quickly as global liquidity injections improved risk appetite, leading to a temporary increase in FPI share in late 2020. But since then, FPI participation has been on a downward trajectory, driven by recurring waves of COVID-19, a slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, and concerns over global economic stability. These factors, coupled with rapid monetary tightening by central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve, have further dampened foreign investor confidence. Consequently, by the end of FY24, FPI ownership in the NSE-listed space dropped to below 18%, marking its lowest point in over 47 quarters. However, individual investor participation in the NSE-listed universe has remained relatively stable over the past decade, staying between 8% and 10%. While direct individual ownership has shown resilience, the rise in systematic investment plans (SIPs) also indicates a shift towards indirect ownership. Despite a minor decline in FY21, the <keyword id="19956399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sip" source="keywords">SIP</keyword> route has become increasingly popular among <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword>, reflecting growing confidence in long-term equity investments. The direct individual ownership trend highlights a maturing market where investors are more inclined towards indirect participation through <keyword id="6357979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="Orion">mutual funds</keyword> and other investment vehicles. This shift also underscores the growing sophistication of <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword> who seek diversified exposure to the <keyword id="19911354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market" source="keywords">equity market</keyword>. The ownership landscape has also changed significantly among promoters over the years. From 2001 to 2009, promoter ownership rose sharply, reaching a 19-year high of 57.6% in March 2009. But this increase was followed by a gradual decline as the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) mandated a minimum free float requirement of 25% in 2010. The reduction in promoter ownership was primarily driven by a decline in government stakes, as the government aimed to enhance public participation in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) and generate resources for economic development. Meanwhile, private promoter ownership, including both Indian and foreign entities, saw an increase of approximately 11.6% between June 2010 and December 2021. In recent years, promoter share has shown signs of a slight increase, particularly due to a rise in government holdings, except for a minor dip in FY23. This resurgence in promoter ownership reflects the ongoing adjustments in the market dynamics and regulatory landscape. Domestic <keyword id="6357979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="Orion">mutual funds</keyword> (DMFs) have also seen a substantial rise in ownership of NSE-listed companies from 2014 to 2019, driven by increasing <keyword id="19956399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sip" source="keywords">SIP</keyword> inflows. Despite a temporary drop in FY21 due to economic uncertainties and high redemption pressures during the <keyword id="19955291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COVID-19-pandemic" source="keywords">COVID-19 pandemic</keyword>, mutual fund participation has rebounded strongly in the past few years.

FPI ownership in NSE-listed companies drops below 18% in FY24

If there is one word to aptly describe the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha <keyword id="20515965" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-results" source="keywords">election results</keyword>, specifically for the incumbent party, it would be jolting, startling, and perhaps, even surprising. The exit polls were wide off the mark, and then some. Less than a week ago, India reported a remarkable <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> rate of 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023-24. Over the weekend, exit polls predicted a clear and easy majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance NDA. Consequently, benchmark indexes, Sensex and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword>, both zoomed more than 3 per cent on Monday, breaching the all-time high records. On Tuesday, the tides turned! Putting a harsh full stop on the ruling party’s “abki baar 400 paar” narrative, the electoral situation on Tuesday evening shows less than 300 seats to the NDA and over 230 seats to the opposing INDIA bloc. What’s even more concerning for the ruling party is its tally dropping from 303 in 2019 to less than 245 this year. Consequently, on Tuesday, Sensex witnessed the steepest drop in over four years since the pandemic, recording a drop of 4,389 to settle just over 72,000. Nifty also dipped by almost 6%, standing at 21,884 points. If the trends hold, the BJP will lack a clear, simple majority on its own for the next five years, even if it manages to form a government with its pre-poll allies. The question is, how stable the new government would be, what would be the overall impact of this verdict on India’s economy, and what’s the story behind the jitters exhibited by the markets on Tuesday? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="India’s incredible economic growth story" comment="subhead" text="India’s incredible economic growth story">India’s incredible <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> story </cmsannotation>Perched to be the world’s 3rd largest economy by 2027, India’s current GDP value stands at $3.9 trillion. As per FM <keyword id="20200167" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Seetharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Seetharaman</keyword>, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of close to 7% in FY25 and hit $7 trillion by 2030. The <keyword id="3530620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-Value-Added" source="Orion">Gross Value Added</keyword> (GVA) data supports the optimistic outlook, with a growth rate of 7.2% in FY24 compared to 6.7% in FY23. And notably, this strong economic growth has come at a time when most of the major economies across the globe are grappling with a slowdown. While few expect India to maintain a robust growth of 8.2%, most economists agree that GDP growth could moderate to around 7% in FY25. But most of these growth forecasts are contingent on a stable government and policy reforms at the centre. So, does the sharp fall in benchmark indices on Tuesday foretell a twist in India’s growth story? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is there a twist in the tale?" comment="subhead" text="Is there a twist in the tale?">Is there a twist in the tale? </cmsannotation>Firstly, the <keyword id="16791710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-inflows" source="Orion">foreign portfolio inflows</keyword> (FPI), indicative of the global confidence reposed in the Indian markets, have been on a consistent decline over the past 3 months. As of 4th June 2024, foreign institutional investors had withdrawn a total of Rs 14,339 crores from the Indian equity markets while investing Rs 55,273 crores in debt instruments, which are traditionally reflective of safety, security, and a low-risk and change appetite. Foreign institutional investors had also withdrawn Rs 25,586 crores during May 2024, and Rs 8,671 crores during April 2024. If anything, the Indian market stands atop the strong confidence of domestic investors. The AUM (assets under management) of the Indian mutual fund industry stood at a record high of around $57 lakh crores in April 2024, even as the SIP AUM hit a record high of Rs 11.26 lakh crore. "The steep fall is due to the results so far falling short of the exit polls which the market had discounted yesterday. If BJP doesn't get a majority on its own there will be disappointment and this is getting reflected in the market. Also it is possible that Modi 3.O may not be as reform-oriented as the market expected and may turn more welfare- oriented," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail" comment="subhead" text="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail">Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail </cmsannotation>But does this mean India’s growth story stands threatened or even jeopardized? Even though social media is flooded with memes that might lead one to believe it is all over for India’s story, the country remains the fastest growing economy amongst all G-20 nations in 2024, compelling almost all rating agencies to positively hike the country’s potential growth rate. But, equally noticeable is the fact that India’s private consumption, a major indicator of the economy’s growth, jumped by only 3.5% over the last 3 months of 2024. India now makes up 6.7% of the world’s GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP). As figures go, India is set to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. Veteran investors like Raamdeo Agrawal, who heads Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believe that India’s potential growth rate of 8-8.5% is not going anywhere and that NDA’s leadership is here to stay. In his words, if an investor has managed to make 4-5x in the last 3-4 years, one will have to give in 20-30%. But that is where you will have to persist as an investor. "With the NDA still looking to form a government, though with the important support of coalition partners, markets look jittery about the prospects of strong decision making. Markets believe that the reformistic approach, which was a hallmark of the previous two terms, might take a backseat in the third term. However, our sense is that it is still early to jump to conclusions and should ideally wait for a clearer picture," said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox. But all in all, the NDA government is most likely to stay for the full term, and those who bet on the same stand to stay safe despite the surprisingly strong performance of the INDIA alliance. However, in the end, the only one who wins in the market stays put in the market in the long run. Because NDA, or INDIA, compounding is here to stay, all set to immensely benefit long-term investors. (With inputs ANI)

Economic implications of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results: Would lack of a clear majority for BJP impact India’s growth story?

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FPIs big buyers in financial services

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FPI ownership in NSE-listed companies drops below 18% in FY24

ANI

Economic implications of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results: Would lack of a clear majority for BJP impact India’s growth story?

BI India Bureau

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