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<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan says the best-case scenario for stocks is a divided Congress, regardless of winner.</li><li>Such a result would make it harder for either candidate to implement proposals.</li></ul>Regardless of the next president, JPMorgan expects stocks to rise if the US election delivers a divided Congress."Under either gridlock scenario, we think equities reprice higher as we clear the uncertainty, volatility decreases and hedges unwind, with investors refocusing on the Fed at a time when the economy and corporate earnings remain resilient," analysts led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in note published Sunday.As of Tuesday morning, polling shows a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">neck-to-neck race</a> between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Without a clear outcome, Wall Street could be headed toward two sharply different investing environments, given each candidate's contrasting policy ideas.However, Congressional gridlock would make it harder for either presidential candidate to implement their proposals as easily as they could under a Democratic or Republican-held Congress."I think the stock market has to be concerned if we get a sweep by the Democrats or a sweep by the Republicans," market veteran Ed Yardeni told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-22/election-gridlock-is-best-outcome-for-stocks-yardeni-video">Bloomberg TV</a> last month. He added: "So I think the stock market will do best if we basically vote for gridlock, that whoever's in the White House just doesn't have an open season to do whatever they want."To JPMorgan's point, investors have been preparing for the possibility of a red or blue sweep. For instance, tariff-sensitive consumer equities have been underperforming in anticipation of a potential Trump win. The Republican candidate has pledged to implement sweeping taxes on all US imports.Under a Trump presidency and a divided Congress, JPMorgan expects domestic and energy equities to be more sensitive. CHIPS Act beneficiaries and multinational companies are more sensitive under a Harris presidency and divided Congress.If a deadlocked Congress helps ease uncertainty over extreme policy changes, investors can once again focus on trading over macroeconomic factors.As JPMorgan noted, all eyes will turn to the Federal Reserve this week. The central bank is expected to implement a 25-basis-point interest rate cut this week.

Why JPMorgan says election gridlock will be the best-case scenario for stocks

Anyone following the rhetoric around <keyword id="107950" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Artificial-Intelligence" source="Orion">artificial intelligence</keyword> in recent years has heard one version or another of the cl<keyword id="6355999" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI" source="Orion">ai</keyword>m that AI is inevitable. Common themes are that AI is already here and indispensable, and people who are bearish on it harm themselves. In the business world, AI advocates tell companies and workers that they will fall behind if they fail to integrate generative AI into their operations. In the sciences, AI advocates promise that AI will aid in curing hitherto intractable diseases. In higher education, AI promoters admonish teachers that students must learn how to use AI or risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes time to find a job. In national security, AI's champions say that either the nation invests heavily in AI weaponry, or it will be at a disadvantage against the Chinese and Russians, who are already doing so. The argument across these different domains is essentially the same: The time for AI skepticism has come and gone. The <keyword id="6355118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="technology" source="Orion">technology</keyword> will shape the future, whether you like it or not. You have the choice to learn how to use it or be left out of that future. Anyone trying to stand in the technology's way is as hopeless as the manual weavers who resisted the mechanical looms in the early 19th century. In the past few years, my colleagues and I (Nir Eisikovits, Professor of Philosophy and Director, Applied Ethics Center, UMass Boston) have been studying the ethical questions raised by the widespread adoption of AI, and I believe the inevitability argument is misleading. <h2>History and hindsight</h2> This claim is the most recent version of a deterministic view of technological development. It's the belief that innovations are unstoppable once people start working on them. In other words, some genies don't go back in their bottles. The best you can do is harness them for your good purposes. This deterministic approach to tech has a long history. It's been applied to the influence of the printing press as well as to the rise of automobiles and the infrastructure they require, among other developments. But I believe that when it comes to AI, the technological determinism argument is both exaggerated and oversimplified. <h2>AI in the field(s)</h2> Consider the contention that businesses can't afford to stay out of the AI game. The case has yet to be made that AI is delivering significant productivity gains to the firms that use it. A report in The <keyword id="20856675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economist" source="keywords">Economist</keyword> in July 2024 suggests that so far, the technology has had almost no economic impact. AI's role in higher education is also still very much an open question. Though universities have, in the past two years, invested heavily in AI-related initiatives, evidence suggests they may have jumped the gun. The technology can serve as an interesting pedagogical tool. For example, creating a Plato chatbot that lets students have a text conversation with a bot posing as Plato is a cool gimmick. However, AI is already starting to displace some of the best tools teachers have for assessment and for developing critical thinking, such as writing assignments. The college essay is going the way of the dinosaurs as more teachers give up on the ability to tell whether their students are writing their papers themselves. What's the cost-benefit argument for giving up on writing, an important and useful traditional skill? In the sciences and medicine, the use of AI seems promising. Its role in understanding the structure of proteins, for example, will likely be significant for curing diseases. The technology is also transforming medical imaging and has been helpful in accelerating the drug discovery process. But the excitement can become exaggerated. AI-based predictions about which cases of COVID-19 would become severe have roundly failed, and doctors rely excessively on the technology's diagnostic ability, often against their own better clinical judgment. And so, even in this area, where the potential is great, AI's ultimate impact is unclear. In national security, the argument for investing in AI development is compelling. Since the stakes can be high, the argument that if the Chinese and the Russians are developing AI-driven autonomous weapons, the United States can't afford to fall behind has real purchase. But a complete surrender to this form of reasoning, though tempting, is likely to lead the <keyword id="19899807" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="u-s-" source="keywords">U.S.</keyword> to overlook the disproportionate impact of these systems on nations that are too poor to participate in the AI arms race. The major powers could deploy the technology in conflicts in these nations. And, just as significantly, this argument de-emphasizes the possibility of collaborating with adversaries on limiting military AI systems, favoring arms race over arms control.<h2> One step at a time</h2> Surveying the potential significance and risks of AI in these different domains merits some skepticism about the technology. I believe that AI should be adopted piecemeal and with a nuanced approach rather than subject to sweeping claims of inevitability. In developing this careful take, there are two things to keep in mind: -First, companies and entrepreneurs working on artificial intelligence have an obvious interest in the technology being perceived as inevitable and necessary, since they make a living from its adoption. It's important to pay attention to who is making claims of inevitability, and why. -Second, it's worth taking a lesson from recent history. Over the past 15 years, smartphones and the social media apps that run on them have come to be seen as a fact of life - a technology as transformative as it is inevitable. Then data started emerging about the <keyword id="6354774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mental-health" source="Orion">mental health</keyword> harms they cause teens, especially young girls. School districts across the United States started to ban phones to protect the attention spans and mental health of their students. And some people have reverted to using flip phones as a quality of life change to avoid smartphones. After a long experiment with the mental health of kids, facilitated by claims of technological determinism, Americans changed course. What seemed fixed turned out to be alterable. There is still time to avoid repeating the same mistake with artificial intelligence, which potentially could have larger consequences for society.

Is AI dominance inevitable? A technology ethicist says no, actually

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Halfway to the weekend! I hope you never face a layoff scare, but if you do we've got some help. A 20-year HR professional offered advice on what to do <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-do-immediately-when-layoff-rumors-start-2024-6">when the rumors of cutbacks start swirling</a>. (Save those personal docs!)In today's big story, we're looking at the latest controversy to embroil OpenAI <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-mess-concerns-over-nda-safety-sam-altman-2024-6">amid a difficult few months for the startup</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Hedge funds' May report cards are in, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/may-hedge-fund-returns-citadel-trailed-rivals-while-schonfeld-surged-2024-6">an industry juggernaut faced a setback</a>.</li><li>Tech: This isn't your annoying aunt's Facebook; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-gen-z-young-adults-meta-plan-mark-zuckerberg-2024-6">it's now pitching Gen Z</a>.</li><li>Business: A certain group of Americans believe <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/golden-age-rich-renters-not-buying-home-price-new-apartment-2024-6">renting over buying is the way to go</a>.</li></ul>But first, oh how the tables have turned.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Up in arms over OpenAI</h2><div type="image" title="sam altman" height="950" width="1440" msid="110739192" hostid="261" sizebytes="167996"></div>The world's most high-profile startup has also become one of its most controversial.A small group of current and former OpenAI employees <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-employee-letter-google-deepmind-ai-risks-protections-2024-6">signed an open letter to tech companies</a> asking for more transparency and not to retaliate against workers who raise concerns about AI's power.While there was a sprinkling of Google DeepMind and Anthropic signees, the majority of the group were past and present OpenAI-ers. It marks another controversy for the startup that's been grabbing headlines for all the wrong reasons.From public spats with Scarlett Johansson and Elon Musk to salty executive exits, Business Insider's Madeline Berg <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-mess-concerns-over-nda-safety-sam-altman-2024-6">has a full rundown on the chaos at OpenAI this year</a>.At the center is CEO Sam Altman, whose act is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/insider-today-sam-altman-openai-silicon-valley-venture-capitalists-controversy-2024-3">wearing thin in certain tech circles</a>.Much of the outrage stems from a lack of guardrails around artificial general intelligence, or the idea that tech could ultimately outperform humans at various tasks and capabilities.OpenAI and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-scope-of-sam-altmans-future-ai-empire-open-ai-2024-3">Altman</a> have long sought to achieve AGI, but experts warn it could ultimately lead to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-think-ai-bring-next-industrial-revolution-trigger-nuclear-war-2023-2">humanity's extinction</a>.<div type="image" title="Sam Altman" height="3811" width="5593" msid="110739194" hostid="261" sizebytes="467328"></div>But how did things turn so quickly for OpenAI?I asked one venture investor who's spoken to multiple high-profile AI experts. Their takeaway was simple: OpenAI wants to have it both ways regarding how it's perceived about safety and commercialization.On the one hand, safety is built into the core of the startup. It's structured as a "capped-profit" company governed by a nonprofit, and Altman doesn't hold equity directly in OpenAI. The idea was for OpenAI to pursue building AGI that "<a target="_blank" href="https://openai.com/our-structure/">is safe and benefits all of humanity</a>."But the startup's commercial aspirations are clear. It's aggressively pushed out new models to compete with rivals and is reportedly considering <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-mulls-turning-openai-into-a-regular-company-2024-5">adjusting its structure to become a full-blown, for-profit company</a>. It also disbanded <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-ends-superalignment-team-manage-ai-risks-2024-5">the team responsible for mitigating AI risks</a>.The result, the VC told me, is people feel OpenAI is talking out of both sides of its mouth. In reality, they said, the split between OpenAI's focus on commercialization versus safety feels like it's more 95/5, respectively.It doesn't help that some OpenAI employees joined when that split was closer to 80/20 and favored safety over business, they added.The impetus for the increased focus on business isn't entirely clear. But the failed ouster of Altman, which included <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-board-member-details-sam-altman-lied-allegation-ousted-2024-5">concerns over safety</a>, does seem like a turning point for the startup.Whatever the case, OpenAI can't keep trying to sit on both sides of the fence, according to the VC. The tensions are too high between commercial and safety aspirations to straddle the line and not expect more issues, they said.<h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Izzy Englander, Millennium Management's founder and CEO." height="650" width="1300" msid="110739196" hostid="261" sizebytes="40054"></div><ol><li>All the top executives at Millennium Management. Izzy Englander's $64 billion hedge-fund behemoth has grown its leadership ranks considerably over the past decade. BI mapped out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennium-org-chart-top-executives-izzy-englander-2024-6">Millennium's 47 top executives across its 17 primary offices</a>.</li><li>Turns out Ken Griffin's Citadel is human after all. The $63 billion hedge fund's flagship fund was down 0.8% last month, several people told BI. Meanwhile, two of Schonfeld's funds enjoyed a strong month. Check out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/may-hedge-fund-returns-citadel-trailed-rivals-while-schonfeld-surged-2024-6">how the top multistrategy managers performed</a>.</li><li>Maybe we shouldn't celebrate GameStop's comeback. The resurgence in meme stocks is a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-meme-stocks-bad-sign-valuations-peak-gamestop-2024-6">bad sign for markets</a>, according to JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic. He took issue with how valuations have remained so elevated and reiterated his gloomy stock view.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Mark Zuckerberg" height="1000" width="2000" msid="110739200" hostid="261" sizebytes="74656"></div><ol><li>Hello, youngs. Mark Zuckerberg would like a word. In an attempt to reach Gen Z, Facebook is leaning into TikTok-like discovery, and away from friends and family. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-gen-z-young-adults-meta-plan-mark-zuckerberg-2024-6">It's a strategy that might just work</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk diverted $500 million in AI processors from Tesla to X. The move, first reported by CNBC, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-sent-500-million-tesla-nvidia-chips-to-x-2024-6">could delay Tesla's development of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots</a>. It highlights Musk's decision to "build products outside of Tesla" until he has 25% of voting control at the company.</li><li>Major Google exec makes a shock exit. Google's chief privacy officer, Keith Enright, is leaving the company after 13 years, and the company has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-privacy-chief-keith-enright-exit-2024-6">no plans to replace him</a>. His move comes as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-lawsuit">Google's privacy policies</a> have faced scrutiny.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Gold apartment buildings with 'For Rent' signs and a sign reading '2 Months Free' with money falling" height="900" width="1200" msid="110739202" hostid="261" sizebytes="176086"></div><ol><li>Welcome to the golden age for rich renters. It's hard to buy a home right now, but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/golden-age-rich-renters-not-buying-home-price-new-apartment-2024-6">some renters don't care</a>. They've found that instead of buying, they can rent a place with comped parking, boxing gyms, and rooftop pools. And compared to a down payment, the apartments feel like a bargain.</li><li>Meet the rising stars of sports betting and gaming. As the industry evolves and more states legalize gambling, new roles are being created to meet its growing demands. We profiled <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rising-stars-sports-betting-and-gaming-at-draftkings-fanduel-more-2024-6">16 people who are driving growth in the field</a>, from responsible gaming to micro betting.</li><li>No more free internet for Shopify workers. Shopify said it will soon stop reimbursements for employees' internet costs and some other expenses, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shopify-ends-internet-reimbursement-policy-other-employee-benefits-2024-6">according to internal docs seen by BI</a>. The expense was introduced during the pandemic, but unlike some of its peers, the company is still remote-first.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-india-election-results-sliding-towards-authoritarianism-modi-2024-6">John Oliver warns India is 'sliding towards authoritarianism' as Modi declares victory in tighter-than-expected election</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jennifer-lopez-cancels-tour-slow-ticket-sales-concerts-prices-ticketmaster-2024-6">The Great Concert Ticket Bust</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-companies-us-business-students-want-to-work-for-2024-6">The 15 companies US business students most want to work for</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-video-generator-pika-funding-series-b-700-million-2024-6">Exclusive: AI video generator Pika is seeking a valuation as high as $700 million in new funding round</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=05f299ea5e1a4d8a9dd234b06730216c&amp;_e=HRxmESEJHGJRT8Nb77gyTCwJGhPNGwP27e7TrHt0Z9uqo-RJSIqJvI-uBRH-ritbitG11KgJw--Gl89psQZrr8q9RSew0YDfscgl9mwunvRo5Q6WYjLuHhg_KBe9fW8pHHHCbyw93EDOlziY7Fb-4PrzDZy9gJfucYff72XtfmqXMRwxQbahFbQ4d75GAuyCQKh7UDF9MJ0donb70j-xIi-d7mZ0n3WhfnGYWLAAxf20gRqyCYFUngbW5SorAPAKRIP8vdDUKUoAAv6shiCfCIiMjIveywIAl6OUpPeMfe8ERgd093sKcN0HCGG5bmZoUy0bNDInpl6UTy53Q3hQX95E8YASXo3ylyJM0m3nuDFekhg4cl4PuLZowpvvzcjpTCM_poDXX-02Ov2ff8rIGQ3CwJIsHcQuRryu16Yt0JjL2GyQc03_stYF_eHJcCdsk4tyTp1lgvQckngX0J2esw%3D%3D">Ad agency BENlabs has laid off staffers and named a new CEO as the company restructures</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>SpaceX will attempt its fourth suborbital test launch of its prototype Starship vehicle.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jack-sommers">Jack Sommers</a>, deputy editor, in London. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/george-glover">George Glover</a>, reporter, in London. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/annie-smith">Annie Smith</a>, associate producer, in London.

OpenAI is facing controversy. Again. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy is on solid footing with cooling inflation and continued growth.</li><li>Yet, the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with analysts divided over how long the bull rally can run. </li></ul>Things are looking great for the US economy.Inflation is falling, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">productivity is rising,</a> and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, which should act as a tailwind for economic growth.Economists have shifted from arguing about a potential recession to forecasting whether a "soft landing" or "no landing" is more likely. It seems the debate is simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">about how fast the economy can grow from here.</a>But the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with major Wall Street banks still divided on whether stock prices have further room to run.Stocks are trading near record highs, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%.Among the top analysts at Wall Street banks, there's some disagreement about whether all of the good news is priced in already or if the market can continue to rise beyond already lofty valuations. On the one hand, most see the gains set to continue, pushing past election uncertainty and continuing to lift stocks into 2025. However, beyond that timeline, uncertainty builds and outlooks get murky. Here's what Wall Street is saying about the prospects for the stock market heading into 2025 and beyond.<h2 id="62a39dfb-29e2-437a-b286-98b65dca264e">The Bulls</h2>A slew of Wall Street banks are chasing the record rally in the stock market this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">boosting their S&amp;P 500 year-end price targets</a> to play catch-up.Strategists at UBS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">increased their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in a note last week, expecting the S&amp;P 500 to hit 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 at the end of next year.That represents potential upside of 8% and 13%, respectively.UBS CIO head of US equities David Lefkowitz said "healthy" earnings growth will pave the way for further stock gains."Third-quarter earnings season has started on a positive note with bank management teams highlighting that consumer spending remains healthy and consistent with normal economic growth," Lefkowitz said.The bank said improving inflation, more Fed rate cuts, and accelerating investment in artificial intelligence should all help support the stock market next year.Strength begets more strength, and that's a big part of BMO strategist Brian Belski's bullish outlook for stocks into 2025.Belski <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,100</a> from 5,600 last month, making him one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in the note.He's also encouraged by the broadening out of the stock market rally, as it's no longer concentrated in a handful of tech giants. That's healthy behavior for sustainable stock market gains, according to the note."This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead," Belski said.<h2 id="fc7c3d7b-c8d5-4665-bd3c-1c08a92b6ce4">The Bears</h2>The bearish strategists on Wall Street are sticking to their views even after being wrong all year. Their top worry is the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than expected and growing hype in AI that might fail to deliver.JPMorgan strategists have held firm to their bearish S&amp;P 500 year-end price target of 4,200, which represents potential downside of 28% from current levels.In a note earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas admitted that a recession appears off the table but said that AI investments are unlikely to pay off with lingering questions around monetization issues.Additionally, investor expectations of a Federal Reserve that is about to embark on a string of interest rate cuts could be disappointed if the economy continues to stay resilient, as it would limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, likely putting downward pressure on stock prices.Finally, JPMorgan warned in a note on Monday that third-quarter earnings have seen a flurry of estimate downgrades as sell-side analysts lower their expectations."Earnings downgrades have been significant," JPMorgan said, adding that they "appear to be worsening."Stifel strategist Barry Bannister has warned investors about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">a potential plunge in the stock market in 2025.</a>Elevated valuations, unfounded expectations for more Fed rate cuts, and hype for AI that ultimately falls short of expectations could create a perfect storm for lower stock prices next year."We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," Bannister said.While the strategist admitted that a "mania" could take hold in the market and push stock prices even higher from here, it will ultimately end with a crescendo and then a fresh swing to the downside."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," Bannister said.<h2 id="1f44d16a-28c8-40a7-bee1-9a426c3bf02e">Somewhere in between</h2>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish, at least in the short term.The bank's chief stock strategist recently increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,000 on the prospect of further growth in corporate earnings. "The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."And yet, Kostin also argues that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">a golden era of stock market returns is probably over</a>. In a note over the weekend, Kostin issued his 10-year forecast for the stock market. He said that a combination of extreme market concentration and high valuations suggests the S&amp;P 500 will deliver annualized returns of just 3% over the next 10 years. That's compared to the S&amp;P 500's annualized return of about 13% over the past 10 years."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," Kostin said.Goldman also sees stocks struggling relative to other assets over the next decade. The bank says the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bond-market returns and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.His long-term view aligns with other bears who fret that the coming decade will look much worse than the last. Stifel's Bannister has also argued for a "lost decade" for the stock market.

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>I baked with my dad and wanted to do it with my kids, but an undiagnosed illness made it impossible.</li><li>When I learned I had multiple sclerosis, I finally started receiving treatment.</li></ul>When I was little, I'd stand on a kitchen chair by the counter as my father poured flour into the mixer. "Turn it on," he'd say, and together we'd watch the ingredients morph into batter. He did the same with his mother, and I always thought I'd do the same with my kids, but we never had the chance. I stopped baking during those early parenting years because I was living with undiagnosed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/multiple-sclerosis-ms-diagnosis-symptoms-pregnancy-postpartum-dizziness-2023-9">multiple sclerosis</a> (MS). I physically couldn't do it.When my younger son was a toddler, I couldn't stand long enough to cook dinner, let alone bake. It was one of many hobbies this disease stole from me as my body declined and my search for a diagnosis grew.Flour. Sugar. Baking powder. Vanilla extract. Butter. Eggs. By the time I'd collected all the ingredients on the counter, my legs were devoid of energy. I stirred until my arm muscles throbbed — often, it wasn't long enough.Some days, I'd push on anyway, determined to hang on to this one piece of myself so that I wasn't defined by this disease. But after sifting, pouring, mixing — and standing — weakness and pain would win.As my legs begged for rest, I'd slowly sink downward into a sitting position until I reached the kitchen floor. There, I cried, mourning the loss of who I was.<h2>I hung up my apron as I waited for a diagnosis</h2>"Perhaps I was once a baker," I'd tell myself. But now, I was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/christina-applegate-what-to-expect-when-diagnosed-with-multiple-sclerosis-2021-8">chronically ill</a> mother struggling to survive, and it was hard to recognize myself.Being in the kitchen was a reminder that I was living with a debilitating yet mysterious disease. When cooking, I'd lean on the counter to relieve some of the weight my body was supporting, but that only helped for so long. I'd prepare meals as quickly as I could, sitting at the counter while I worked when possible.By the time my second son was born, I'd already exhausted doctors in every specialty without <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/have-tourette-syndrome-working-on-controlling-tics-2024-2">receiving a diagnosis</a>. Resting in the evenings instead of baking like I once did was the only way to push through. I simply had no other choice.Baking became a hobby of my past, and my muffin tins found their way to the bottom of my cabinet, buried under kitchen necessities. This disease left no space for activities of enjoyment.<h2>I learned I had multiple sclerosis</h2>After 13 years of searching for an answer, a neurologist ordered a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/invisible-disability-parent-work-from-bed-2022-8">lumbar puncture</a>, and with the results, he suggested, "I think what we're dealing with here is MS." With treatment, my body finally had a chance to improve. Slowly, over a few years, I found myself again. Short walks became easier. Moving around my home felt more natural. Exercising became routine. My muffin tins emerged from hiding.At first, I found old recipes I used to bake with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/old-dad-age-difference-older-parent-benefits-wisdom-2024-1">my father during childhood</a> — ones I'd written on loose-leaf paper and brought to college with me. I've been on a gluten-free diet for the last decade, and I now experiment with new recipes in search of the best gluten-free muffin. I rediscovered the therapeutic nature of baking and how it relieves stress and heals trauma.I'm six years into MS treatment, and my 12-year-old now enjoys mixing the batter with me. He's too big to stand on a chair beside me, eagerly watching the ingredients swirl together. We were cheated out of the magic of baking during toddlerhood, but we're making up for lost time. It's a chance I never knew we'd have.My body is still imperfect. Mixing is difficult at times, and I can't stand indefinitely, but baking is now possible — and I have a helper to take over when I need to rest. This Mother's Day, as we bake together, my son and I will appreciate the little things that many people take for granted, like the smell of muffins baking in the oven, the decadence of a handful of Ghirardelli chocolate chips, the wonder of watching the batter rise through the oven door, and the ability to simply stand long enough to bake.Baking muffins with my son helps me appreciate everything my body can do despite MS. We have a second chance to measure, sift, mix, and pour together — even though he doesn't need to stand on a chair to see the bowl. It's like finding a lost puzzle piece after many years and finally feeling whole again — it's the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mothers-day-gift-really-want-alone-time-2024-5">best Mother's Day gift</a> I could ask for.

This Mother's Day, I'm celebrating the fact that I can bake with my kid again. Not long ago, that wasn't the case.

Incidence of stroke and related deaths are rising substantially around the world, with <keyword id="19900550" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="air-pollution" source="keywords">air pollution</keyword>, <keyword id="21334318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="high-temperatures" source="keywords">high temperatures</keyword> and metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure and physical inactivity, driving these increases, according to estimates published in The Lancet Neurology journal. Researchers found that the contribution of high temperatures to poor health and early death due to stroke has increased 72% since 1990 and is likely to continue increasing in the future, thereby highlighting how environmental factors can impact growing stroke burden. Further, for the first time, particulate matter or PM air pollution was found to have the same contribution as smoking towards causing a fatal form of brain bleed, according to the researchers forming the <keyword id="20691740" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-Burden-of-Disease" source="keywords">Global Burden of Disease</keyword>, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) group. The GBD study, the "largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time", is coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, US. Globally, the number of people experiencing a stroke for the first time rose to 119 lakh in 2021 -- up by 70% since 1990 -- while deaths related to stroke rose to 73 lakh, which was up by 44% since 1990, making the neurological condition the third leading cause of death after ischaemic heart disease (short supply of blood to heart) and COVID-19. They added that over three-fourth of those affected by strokes live in low- and middle-income countries. According to lead author Valery L. Feigin from Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand, the rapid growth in the number of people affected by stroke strongly suggested that <keyword id="23228151" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stroke-prevention" source="keywords">stroke prevention</keyword> strategies currently used are not sufficiently effective. "New, proven effective population-wide and motivational individual prevention strategies that could be applied to all people at risk of having a stroke, regardless of the level of risk, as recommended in the recent Lancet Neurology Commission on Stroke should be implemented across the globe urgently," said Feigin. The researchers also estimated that stroke-related liabilities attributable to 23 modifiable risk factors, including air pollution, excess body weight, high blood pressure, smoking and physical inactivity, increased from 100 million years of healthy life lost in 1990 to 135 million in 2021. These risk factors are present in huge numbers in Eastern Europe, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, they said. The authors also acknowledged substantial progress made in reducing the global stroke burden from risk factors linked to poor diet, air pollution and smoking. Poor health resulting from diets high in processed meat and low in vegetables declined by 40 % and 30%, respectively, while that due to PM air pollution and smoking fell by 20 % and 13%, respectively, they found. The results suggested that strategies for reducing exposure to these risk factors over the past three decades such as clean air zones and public smoking bans have been successful, the authors said. They called for implementing and monitoring the evidence-based recommendations set out in the 2023 World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission on stroke for drastically reducing the global burden of stroke in the years to come and improving brain health and overall well-being of millions of people around the world. The recommendations include stroke surveillance programmes that monitor indicators of stroke such as incidence, recurrence, death rates and risk factors in a country, and care and rehabilitation services for people affected by stroke.

Stroke cases increasing globally, air pollution, high temperatures driving numbers, notes Lancet Study

India's tally of <keyword id="8869954" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="covid-cases" source="Orion">Covid cases</keyword> rose by 556 in a day to reach 4,46,68,523 while <keyword id="15559044" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="active-cases-declined" source="Orion">active cases declined</keyword> by 252 during the same period to reach 6,782, according to <keyword id="15559046" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Health-Ministry-data-updated" source="Orion">Union Health Ministry data updated</keyword> Friday. The death toll has climbed to 5,30,570 with 17 more fatalities, including 15 reconciled by Kerala, the data updated at 8 am stated. The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 4,41,31,171, while the case fatality rate was 1.19 per cent. Active cases comprise 0.02 per cent of the total infections while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has increased to 98.79 per cent. According to the health ministry's website, 219.85 crore doses of Covid vaccine have been administered in the country so far under the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination drive. India's COVID-19 tally crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16. It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. India crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4, three crore on June 23 last year and four crore on January 25 this year. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/from-launch-vehicles-to-space-tourism-indian-space-start-ups-aim-high/articleshow/95605515.cms" style="">From launch vehicles to space tourism, Indian space start-ups aim high</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/iit-kanpur-researcher-develops-technology-to-turn-acs-into-air-purifiers/articleshow/95601694.cms">IIT Kanpur researcher develops technology to turn ACs into air purifiers</a>

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OpenAI is facing controversy. Again.

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This Mother's Day, I'm celebrating the fact that I can bake with my kid again. Not long ago, that wasn't the case.

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Stroke cases increasing globally, air pollution, high temperatures driving numbers, notes Lancet Study

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India logs 556 Covid infections in a day; active caseload declines by 252

IANS

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