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<ul><li>A Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that <keyword id="58448" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Retail">Reliance Retail</keyword> market value , will skyrocket to a massive $200 billion in two years. </li><li>Since 90% of India’s retail market is unorganized and dominated by <keyword id="6513856" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="kirana-stores">Kirana stores</keyword> – Reliance might have a wide market to play in. </li><li>Recently, Reliance Industries backed startup Fynd launched Uniket, a direct-to-retail solution, which will help shopkeepers in Tier 2 and 3 cities go online and expand their businesses.</li></ul><keyword id="3820" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mukesh-Ambani">Mukesh Ambani</keyword>’s retail venture is unlike any other global ventures. Instead of eating up mom and pop stores like every other large retailer, it is juxtaposing its new e-commerce venture on mom-and-pop stores, or kirana stores as they are called in north India, by modernizing them. This strategy of erasing lines between offline and online retail will earn it rich dividends, <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/company-stock/reliance-industries-market-capitalisation-rises-reliance-jio-jio-fiber-bofa-ml/story/385191.html">believes</a> research firm Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML). In its latest report, the firm predicts that Reliance Retail’s market value will skyrocket to a massive $200 billion in two years. A big chunk of the value created will come from serving the kirana stores. Since 90% of India’s retail market is unorganized and dominated by kirana stores--Reliance might have a wide market to play in. So what is it that Reliance is offering these small stores? <ol><li>Reliance Retail intends to help shopkeepers enter the new digital age and will be aided by an agile Jio, its innovation and country-wide strong network. </li><li>RIL’s Point of Sale (PoS) offering (or New commerce business, as the company calls it) will help merchants take online orders, generate GST-compliant bills, get inventory decline alerts etc. It can also help them migrate to GST and other tax regimes easily.</li><li>RIL also benefits by being able to offer Kiranas a faster delivery of replenished stocks, according to the report.</li><li>Even brands and consumers benefit in this initiative with Brands benefiting from better data analytics, better ads and promotion of their products. Customers could get access to discounts directly from brands without the merchant looking to offer incentives. Trials have already stated for this service, BoFA-ML said.</li><li>Ambani intends to add more services and offerings. At the IMC 2019 event, it introduced an app which will allow small businesses to make <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/reliance-jio-is-offering-a-new-bot-maker-for-small-businesses-to-build-their-own-video-call-assistants/articleshow/71590602.cms">their own chatbot</a>. That will directly aid the millions of kirana stores which could be connected in.</li><li>Recently, Reliance Industries backed startup Fynd launched Uniket, a direct-to-retail solution, which will help shopkeepers in Tier-II and Tier-III cities go online and expand their businesses. </li></ol>The Kirana stores will take time to change their usage patterns but when they do, it could lead to its growth at breakneck speeds of 20% per annum, the research firm says. “We estimate RIL will tie-up with 5 million kiranas in FY21 and 10 million by FY22. We expect RIL to be able to charge ₹500-750 per month per kirana as a service charge for its M-POS device (rather than an upfront fee),” the report said. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total Revenue estimate in ₹ million </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Implied growth </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Industry avg (3-year CAGR) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY20E </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,744,158 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">33.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">20% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY21E </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,346,035 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">34.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY22E </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,818,581 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">20.1% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY23E </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,282,231 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">16.4% </td></tr></tbody></table> Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch report In the worst case of growth, this kirana business will add to $6 billion to the enterprise value to the overall base value of $36bn – that’s at least one-sixth of the additional value created come from one segment. If this business picks up faster pickup – it can contribute as much as $25 bn from new commerce and that will increase the total retail business value to $70 billion, as per Bofa-ML’s calculations. The icing on the cake for Reliance Industries’ investors will be the plan to spin off its retail and telecom ventures and list them individually. In a bid to grow fast and stave off large national and international players who are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/amazon-prepares-for-the-mukesh-ambani-challenge-with-a-bet-on-future-group-shares/articleshow/70799094.cms">established in the market like Amazon, Big Bazaar</a> and others, Ambani is taking the road less travelled.

Mukesh Ambani is set to make big money out of India’s millions of small kirana shops

NEW DELHI: Back in April 2012, S&amp;P downgraded its outlook on India to BBB- (negative from stable) and since then the Indian government has managed to revive growth, attain fiscal consolidation and also bring down inflation. 
 
“We expect rating agencies to upgrade their outlook for India sooner rather than later,” BofA-ML said in a report authored by Indranil Sen Gupta and Abhishek Gupta. 
 
“We also thought the April 2012 S&amp;P outlook downgrade was unwarranted. With Moody’s downgrading their Brazil outlook last night, key EM peers are seeing downgrades,” added the report. 
 
Last week India pitched for a rating upgrade by international credit agency Moody’s, citing steps unveiled in the Budget 2014-15 to keep the fiscal deficit in check and provide impetus to growth. 
 Moody’s has assigned ‘Baa3’ rating to India, with a stable outlook, which suggests possibility of an upgrade. According to Moody’s, “the rating reflects high domestic savings and adequate <keyword id="6368276" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Foreign-exchange">foreign exchange</keyword> reserves and the challenges posed by large fiscal deficits, recurrent inflation and weak infrastructure.” 
 
BofA-ML has identified top 5 compelling reasons for an outlook upgrade for India: 
 
Growth bottoming out: 5.5% FY15, 6.5% FY16, 7.5% FY18 
 
The slowdown in growth has largely been driven by the global down cycle rather than domestic structural issues. In fact, growth is bottoming out far higher than Brazil or Russia. This is why we always found concern that India would fall out of BRICs in 2012 to be baseless. In fact, BofA-ML believes that India should emerge as the second-largest EM after China by 2019. 
 
The global investment bank continues to reiterate its standing view that India’s potential growth is about 7.5%. It says, “We never thought that potential growth should be raised to 8-9% just because an upcycle pushed growth up to 8.4% during 2004-08.” 
 
 
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Inflation peaking off: 8.5% in August, but 6% in 2016 
 
BofA-ML also believes that inflation is largely ‘imported’ rather than being home-grown for all the lament about India’s ‘inflation problem’. “As we have often highlighted, the RBI’s growth-inflation trade-off has been far better than most EM peers,” it says. 
 
In any case, the global investment bank thinks that inflation is peaking. “Although we have higher-than consensus inflation forecasts (8.5% in August, 7.8% consensus; 8% in July, 7.4% consensus, 8% actual), this is driven by a temporary spike in tomato prices on poor rains. This will reverse with the seasonal rainfall deficit down to 11 per cent of normal,” it says. 
 
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Twin deficit risks overdone 
 Risks from twin deficits have proved overdone. <keyword id="6355261" type="POSITION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Finance-minister">Finance Minister</keyword> <keyword id="6390789" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Jaitley">Jaitley</keyword> has expectedly stuck to the fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP set in the February Budget. There are risks to his fiscal deficit target as: (1) tax projections are ambitious; (2) Fed tapering may make divestment difficult; and (3) FY14 expenditures were deferred to the current fiscal year. 
 At the same time, this will likely not impact the government’s Rs4958bn net borrowing, as it has also inherited a large cash surplus of Rs1284bn with the RBI from the previous <keyword id="26374" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="UPA-government">UPA government</keyword>. 
 
 
 
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RBI to buy FX to guard against contagion; hold Rs58-62/USD 
 BofA-ML continues to expect Governor <keyword id="6355561" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Rajan">Rajan</keyword> to buy FX at Rs58+/USD to guard against contagion as Governors Jalan and Reddy did. This is reversing the policy mistake of completely unsustainable appreciation by stopping to buy FX reserves in 2H09-1H11. 
 
As import cover plummeted, that led to a 50% depreciation later. This will likely stabilize Rs58-62/USD. “Any emerging market today is going to look at the currency volatility and say ‘whatever money comes in, I’m going to be careful about it, I am going to build some reserves’..,” Governor Rajan reiterated last week. 
 
RBI to cut rates even if Fed hikes; 75 bps cut February onwards 
 
BofA-ML believes that the RBI can cut rates even if the Fed hikes rates from September 2015, with Governor Rajan recouping FX reserves. “We see it cutting policy rates by 75-100bp starting in February, even if Fed Chair Janet Yellen hikes from September 2015, as our US economists expect,” it says.

Top Five Reasons Why Rating Agencies Should Upgrade India Outlook: BofA-ML

<ul><li>The retail unit of <keyword id="6355199" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="reliance-industries">Reliance Industries</keyword> posted a strong show in second quarter earnings.</li><li><keyword id="58448" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Retail">Reliance Retail</keyword> saw its pre-tax profits grow by 66.8% to ₹2,322 crores. </li><li>The share price of Reliance Industries has jumped over 12% in the last one month compared to the 4% rally in Sensex.</li></ul>Reliance Retail announced its Q2 earnings for the current financial year. Despite a larger slowdown in the economy as well as in people’s consumption, Reliance Retail saw its pre-tax profits grow by 66.8% to ₹2,322 crores as opposed to ₹1,392 crores in the same quarter last year. The revenue from Reliance Retail grew to ₹41,202 crores as opposed to ₹32,436 crores in the same quarter last year. During the quarter, Reliance Retail added 337 stores taking the total store count to 10,901 stores. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 It is present across areas like food and grocery, consumer electronics, fashion and lifestyle. Poised for growth Research firm Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML), in its latest report, predicts that Reliance Retail will be a big driver in taking RIL’s market value to a massive $200 billion in two years. A big chunk of the value created will come from serving the<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/mukesh-ambani-owned-reliance-retail-revenue-estimate-from-kirana-stores/articleshow/71643159.cms"> kirana stores. </a> Reliance Retail, which was launched in 2006, has been growing rapidly over the years and has been aggressively acquiring companies as well. Earlier this year, Reliance Retail had acquired the iconic British toy making company Hamley’s and in July completed the 100% acquisition of the company for a <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/corporate/mukesh-ambani-reliance-brands-completes-100-acquisition-of-hamleys/story/365664.html">reported</a> amount of ₹620 crore. The share price of Reliance Industries had already run up over 12% in the last one month and investors have priced a strong show from the company that was once an energy giant, and is now fast changing into a consumer business with its thrust on Reliance Retail and on telecom via Reliance Jio. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/top-highlights-from-mukesh-ambani-owned-reliance-industries-rils-quarterly-earnings/articleshow/71651084.cms">Reliance Industries posts a record profit even as refining and telecom verticals soften</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/mukesh-ambani-owned-reliance-industries-forms-pact-with-bp-to-sell-aviation-fuel-in-india/articleshow/71651988.cms">Reliance Industries makes a new pact with BP to sell jet fuel in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/mukesh-ambani-owned-reliance-retail-revenue-estimate-from-kirana-stores/articleshow/71643159.cms">Mukesh Ambani is set to make big money out of India’s millions of small kirana shops</a>

Reliance Retail surprises with a sharp growth of 27% despite slowdown

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/kimonomania/7016075327/">rachel a. k/Flickr</a></td></tr></table>At 8:30 AM ET, we'll get the January reading of U.S. <keyword id="87998" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Retail-sales">retail sales</keyword>.
This particular report, however, will be more scrutinized than usual. And it is expected to have big implications on economists' forecasts for the economy.
Why?
This is the first month where U.S. workers got hit with the recent payroll tax hike. 
Economists are looking for a modest increase in sales. But many have noted that it's unclear how much the tax hike affected consumer sentiment.
Citi's Steven Englander has declared it 'The Most Important Datapoint So Far This Year.' His commentary:
The big question for the US economy is how much of a headwind the January 1 tax hike has become for US activity. January retail sales would by far be affected more directly than January payrolls or ISMs, so retail sales will be the first really hard data on the impact of the tax hike. Expectations are relatively muted. The consensus is for headline and ex-autos at +0.1% m/m (Citi economists expect +0.2% and +0.3%, on the view that momentum will persist. Core retail sales are expected to growth 0.3% m/m by the consensus and 0.4% by Citi economists.
And the tax hike isn't the only fiscal issue on consumers' minds. BofA/ML strategist David Woo <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-woo-on-the-divergence-between-the-sp-and-consumer-spending-2013-2">described this current period to us</a> as a "moment of truth" for the economy, and anticipated the fight over the sequester (which takes place over the coming weeks) will be where it all happens.
Follow the release live at BusinessInsider.com.

Why Everybody's Nervous About The Upcoming Retail Sales Report

Hiya! It's <a href="https://twitter.com/dandefrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a> checking in from NYC. If you feel like you're coming out of a sugar coma, <a href="https://www.insider.com/guides/health/diet-nutrition/sugar-detox">here's some tips for how to quit the candy</a>. Today we've got stories on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-growing-threat-world-economy-stock-market-crash-2022-10">the troubles in China and why that's not good</a> for the global economy, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/a16z-fintech-solo-capitalist-rex-salisbury-fintech-investor-2022-10">the VC who built a reputation as a fintech super-connector</a>, and <a href="https://www.insider.com/nascar-video-game-move-ross-chastain-martinsville-playoffs-2022-10">a NASCAR driver doing the type of racing you typically only see in video games</a>. But first, there is someone on the phone for you. If this was forwarded to you,<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-on-wall-street"> sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here</a>.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-is-about-to-promote-another-round-of-partners-2022-10"></a>1. It's the most wonderful time of the year... for a select few at Goldman SachsIt's one of the most exclusive clubs on Wall Street, and it's ready to open its doors to an esteemed few.Goldman Sachs is preparing to announce its newest crop of partners in what is the closest thing Wall Street has to a coronation.At most banks, managing director is the highest title one can achieve (aside from the C-suite). But at Goldman, there is an even higher echelon for the true overachievers: partner. Acceptance into Goldman's partnership, which is around 1%, comes with plenty of perks (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-is-about-to-promote-another-round-of-partners-2022-10">we mapped them all out here</a>). But, as crazy as this might sound about a bunch of people on Wall Street, it's more than just another zero at the end of your paycheck. Nabbing the distinction of partner is a mark of exclusivity within a firm that already prides itself on being exclusive. And that type of cachet goes a long way if a person decides to venture beyond the walls of Goldman. The esteem of the Goldman partnership is only growing under David Solomon, as the bank's CEO has been much more selective about who gets past the velvet rope. Under Solomon, the partnership class has been 69 (<a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2018/gs-partner-class-2018.html">in 2018</a>) and 60 (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partner-class-2020-banking-wall-street-2020-11">in 2020</a>), down a reasonable amount from the class prior to when Solomon took over (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partner-list-2016-11">84 in 2016</a>). But Dakin Campbell, Insider's chief finance correspondent and resident Goldman expert, told me he wouldn't be surprised if this class ends up being larger than Solomon's previous classes. The CEO's goal was always to reduce the size of the overall partnership after it swelled to over 500, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-of-goldman-sachs-partners-that-exited-in-2019-2020-1">Insider previously reported</a>.However, after two-consecutive smaller partner classes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/business/goldman-sachs-partner-exits.html">and a series of high-profile exits</a>, the bank could look to restock it ranks. It's also worth noting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-restructuring-david-solomon-mark-nachmann-winners-2022-10">how the new partners will be divided among the three new divisions</a>, Dakin added. With investment banking and trading still providing the bulk of Goldman's revenue — it seems almost assured that a bulk of the class come from a unit that will now be housed under one roof.Which also begs the question how that'll sit with those in the bank's other two groups: asset and wealth management; platform solutions.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-is-about-to-promote-another-round-of-partners-2022-10">Here's everything you ever wanted to know about Goldman's secretive partner process, from how they are selected to how much they stand to make. </a>In other news:<a href="https://www.insider.com/nascar-video-game-move-ross-chastain-martinsville-playoffs-2022-10"></a><div type="image" title="Ross Chastain NASCAR Playoffs Video-Game Move" height="632" width="1139" msid="95231729" hostid="261" sizebytes="60852"></div>2. American Express just tapped the Groupon CTO to lead its cloud strategy. Sachin Devand, who also had a stint at Goldman Sachs' Marcus, was named EVP and unit CIO of digital, data, and AI/ML tech at Amex. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-express-hired-groupon-cto-sachin-devand-cloud-efforts-2022-10">Here's everything you need to know about the tech exec and how he fits into the card giant's strategy.</a>3. Here's some advice on how to manage work-life balance on Wall Street from a former rising star at Bank of America. Laura Hayward spent more than a decade on the Street and was a director in BofA's prime brokerage sales before leaving this summer to be a doula and energy therapist. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-rising-star-laura-hayward-success-wall-street-2022-10">Here's her five lessons for being successful AND happy working in finance (it's possible, I swear.)</a>4. Things are not going great in China. From a heavy reliance on a slumping real-estate market to a population that is not getting any younger, there are plenty of red flags. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-growing-threat-world-economy-stock-market-crash-2022-10">Here's why things look so stark, and what it means for the rest of the world</a>. 5. The other shoe is about to drop in Corporate America. It was a fun few years of "quiet quitting" and "The Great Resignation," but it was never going to last forever. Here's why employers seemed poised to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/great-resignation-income-inequality-worker-employee-power-recession-company-control-2022-10">take back any power gained by employees over the past few years</a>.6. Meet the fintech whisperer. Rex Salisbury built a reputation in the fintech community as a connector thanks to his networking group, Cambrian. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/a16z-fintech-solo-capitalist-rex-salisbury-fintech-investor-2022-10">Now he's writing checks of his own after leaving Andreessen Horowitz last year</a>. 7. Still daydreaming about leaving it all behind and just moving to Europe? Well, it turns out plenty of places over there are hiring. We spoke to five German headhunters about the European startup scene. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-startup-scene-tech-silicon-valley-headhunters-best-pay-jobs-2022-10">Here are their tips for what positions are most in need and who pays the best</a>.8. You might be able to finally throw away that checkbook. JPMorgan is working on a tool for landlords and tenants to handle payments online, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/jpmorgan-chase-unveils-payments-platform-for-landlords-and-tenants.html">CNBC reports</a>. 9. Dealmaking isn't dead just yet. Blackstone announced plans to acquire a majority stake in <a href="https://www.blackstone.com/news/press/emerson-to-sell-majority-stake-in-climate-technologies-to-blackstone-in-transaction-valuing-the-business-at-14-0-billion/">Emerson's $14 billion Climate Technologies business, which specializes in HVAC</a>. It's worth noting that Blackstone, not the banks, was the one that handled selling off the $5.5 billion in debt financing that was part of the deal, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-emerson-electric-strike-14-billion-buyout-deal-11667188861?mod=djemalertNEWS">The Wall Street Journal reports</a>. 10. A real-life Ricky Bobby in NASCAR. Ross Chastain passed five cars in the final turn of a NASCAR playoff race with the type of move you need to see to believe. Check out the videos showing how Chastain, who said the inspiration came from playing video games with his brother, <a href="https://www.insider.com/nascar-video-game-move-ross-chastain-martinsville-playoffs-2022-10">was able to slingshot himself ahead in the final moments</a>.Keep updated with the latest business news throughout your day by checking out <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider</a>, a dynamic audio news brief. <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">Listen here.</a>Edited by Jeffrey Cane (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffrey_cane">@jeffrey_cane</a>) in New York and Hallam Bullock (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

One of Wall Street's most exclusive clubs is about to add a few more members

<keyword id="6354504" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reliance-Jio">Reliance Jio</keyword> would possibly acquire a <keyword id="54765" type="TECHNOLOGY" weightage="100" keywordseo="VoIP">VoIP</keyword> (Voice Over Internet Protocol) licence but may not offer free calls through this route, as a government panel upheld the principles of '<keyword id="6391709" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Net-neutrality">net neutrality</keyword>', a research note said today. 

	Besides, international revenue of telecom operators may remain under pressure as traffic would continue to move to VoIP players who offer free calls barring nominal data charges. 
 "Given R-Jio's lack of traditional voice offering and considering that its Vo-LTE (4G) offering may not be mature immediately, we see a possibility that Jio may look to acquire a VOIP license," Bank of America <keyword id="6374847" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Merrill-Lynch">Merrill Lynch</keyword> (BofA-ML) said in a research note. 

	"In such a scenario, we do not see the possibility of free VOIP calls being offered," it added. 
 

	An official panel on net neutrality has proposed regulation of domestic calls on Internet-based apps like Skype, Whatsapp and Viber by putting them on par with services offered by telecom operators. 
 

	Commenting on this, BofA-ML said this is slightly positive for existing telcos like Bharti/Idea, "as cannibalisation of voice revenues from VOIP uptake will likely be slower". 
 According to BofA-ML, existing OTT (Over the top) players like Skype, Viber, WhatsApp and <keyword id="6355629" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Google">Google</keyword> Talk may give OTT license a miss as these companies are not telecom service providers and may not make an exception for one country. 

	"However, the home grown OTTs like Jio chat/Hike may possibly opt to take the license which may allow them to gain traction in the messaging space which is currently dominated by foreign OTT players," it added. 
 

	The report however noted that since VOIP traffic is difficult to monitor, the arbitrage opportunity between international VOIP and domestic VOIP may lead to increase in illegal VOIP traffic. 
 

	"VOIP traffic (whether it is domestic or international) is difficult to monitor, and the arbitrage opportunity between international VOIP and domestic VOIP may lead to increase in illegal VOIP traffic," BofA-ML added. 

	 
	 
	(Image credits: Indiatimes)

Reliance Jio to acquire VoIP licence as government
panel upholds net neutrality

Overnight we got fresh data in China that confirms a slowdown.
Via BofA/ML, here's the scorecard. The top line shows the numbers that were reported vs. what was expected. In each case, numbers came in below expectations and below the previous month.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">BofA/ML</div></div></div>
BofA/ML cites the ongoing corruption crackdown as one major factor, and the firm doesn't believe that the economy is weak enough to warrant any additional stimulus just yet.

More Slowdown In China

<a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Union+Budget+&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Union Budget </a>will be rolling out on February 1st and Indians are teeming with expectations. With just three weeks to go before the <keyword id="6360189" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget">Union Budget</keyword> 2017-18, Indians have suggested <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=finance+ministry+&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Finance Ministry </a>to put more focus on farmers and on sectors, which can create more jobs. Yes, Indians want job creation. 
 Recently, <keyword id="47209" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Ministry">Finance Ministry</keyword> conducted a poll on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Twitter+&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Twitter </a>and asked the users to suggest sectors that need more focus, as well as areas which they feel can create more jobs. 
 
The Twitterati has so far voted for increased focus on the agriculture sector, followed by youth, underprivileged and on women and children. The poll is open for three more days. 
 
The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rural+economy+&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">rural economy </a>is crucial for India, as over 50 per cent of rural households depend on agriculture as their prime means of livelihood. 
 
According to most of the analysts, the forthcoming budget will focus more on lifting the rural economy, which got hit badly by the demonetisation drive. Companies focused on the agricultural sector are likely to hog the limelight in the forthcoming budget, experts said. 
 
"The agricultural sector is likely to attract more attention of the government. Agro-based companies could possibly remain in the forefront of recognition as far investors are concerned,” Deven Choksey, KR Choksey Securities, told ET. 
 
However, too many interest subvention schemes or loan waiver could strain fiscal deficit, which might disappoint analysts as well as global rating agencies. The fiscal deficit target for 2016-17 is Rs 5.34 lakh crore, or 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. 
 
For next year, the government could keep the target at 3.5 per cent. 
 
"The budget may fix a fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=GDP&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">GDP</a> for 2017-18, relaxing the 3 per cent target set earlier in order to support growth,” BofA-ML said in report. 
 
Another question that the Finance Ministry asked was which area should be given priority for employment generation. 
 
The micro-small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) sector has got the maximum vote share so far, followed by low-cost housing, automobile &amp; spare parts and garmenting.

This is what India wants from Budget this February

There is increasing speculation that Mukesh Ambani-owned Jio which expected to launch its <keyword id="6493730" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="4G-services">4G services</keyword> around December 2015 will delay it further to the next fiscal year starting April 2016. <keyword id="15492" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Vodafone">Vodafone</keyword> and Idea would would have by then launched their 4G services. <keyword id="15491" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Airtel">Airtel</keyword> has already rolled out its high-speed broadband services across over 300 towns and is aggressively expanding further. 
 Brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said: "A further delay in launching 4G services could make it difficult for <keyword id="6354504" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reliance-Jio">Reliance Jio</keyword> Infocomm to poach high-end subscribers from top incumbents Airtel, <keyword id="6354924" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Idea-Cellular">Idea Cellular</keyword> and Vodafone India who will have a first mover advantage." 
 
The brokerage firm, in a note dated October 30, said it expects all the big three telcos to have rolled out 4G selectively in key urban areas before March 2016. 
It also expects their top-end (high-usage) consumers to migrate to 4G. But the top 5 per cent customers - who contribute 25 per cent to revenue - of the big 3 are likely to be sticky and unlikely to switch to Jio at a time when their existing operator will also be offering 4G services, it said. "We think that Jio would need to focus on offering a differentiated service as aggressive pricing alone would not be able to help it have a sustainable advantage," the note said. 
 
Analysts at BoFA-ML are also of the view that service launches matched by a sharp fall in prices of handsets supporting 4G is likely to boost adoption of the technology. even at the cost of 3G. "In the next few years, we expect to see limited differentiation between 3G and 4G - tariffs and smartphone prices," the report says. 
 
As a result there would be limited value for consumer to be on a 3G network when compared to 4G, which offers far higher average speed compared with 3G. "We hence expect a faster acceleration towards 4G and see a large proportion of 2G subs leapfrogging 3G and moving to 4G," the brokerage firm added. 
(Image credits: BCCL)

Reliance Jio’s delay in 4G launch may foil its 'poaching' plan and give rivals first mover advantage

One of the big stories of the year is the incredible return of investor money to US stocks.
After the financial collapse, we saw a huge reluctance among investors to put money into equities, as they instead preferred bonds, or emerging market assets, that's all changing this year, as the market hits record highs, and squashes out the skeptics.
In a note on fund flow, Bank of America reports:
Largest weekly inflow to US equity funds since June ‘08 (note market value of S&amp;P500 index, adjusted for float, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time ever today) Huge $20bn global equity inflows versus $1bn out of bonds.
This one chart shows what an incredible year it's been. Technically it's "Developed Market" equities, but everyone knows that the US is the big story in the developed world, and that that's what's really driving the show here.
<div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">BofA/ML</div></div></div>

In One Chart, Here's The Incredible Stampede To Get Money Into The US Stock Market

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>Screenshot via Bloomberg TV</div>The latest note from BofA/ML economist <keyword id="316636" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Michelle-Meyer">Michelle Meyer</keyword> hints at the sense of enthusiasm and animal spirits that people are feeling in the U.S. economy.
The title is: "The bottomless pocketbook."
It refers to this morning's strong <keyword id="87998" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Retail-sales">retail sales</keyword> report, which has led Meyer to up her <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> forecast to 2.6 percent from 2.2 percent:
Retail sales jumped 1.1% in February, while “core control” (ex-autos, building materials and gasoline) increased 0.4%. This shows resiliency on the part of the US consumer, given the headwinds in February, including higher taxes, delayed tax refunds, rising gasoline prices and poor weather conditions. The tailwinds, including stronger job growth and wealth appreciation, are seemingly stronger than we had believed. While we continue to look for softening in coming months from the lagged impact of fiscal cuts, we must acknowledge better momentum from the consumer. We are now tracking 2.6% for Q1 GDP, up from our prior tracking forecast of 2.2%.
...
We can learn two lessons from this data: 1) consumers have greater support through labor income and wealth appreciation, which has also led to greater confidence, and 2) consumers may be willing to accept a lower saving rate for a period of time. The saving rate collapsed to 2.4% in January, the lowest level since prior to the crisis, and after today’s retail sales report, it appears consumers did little to build back savings in February.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-crush-expectations-2013-3">For more on today's strong retail sales, see here &gt;</a>

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