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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Morgan Stanley analysts' bull case for Tesla would see the stock soar to $500 a share. </li><li>They said Tesla's autonomous technology could be the "great unlock" that turns it into an AI giant.</li></ul>Tesla shares have a path to big upside ahead if the electric car company can expand beyond autos and if CEO Elon Musk flexes newfound political muscle in a second Donal Trump presidency, Morgan Stanley analysts said on Tuesday. The analysts, led by Adam Jonas, forecast a rise to $500 a share in their most bullish scenario, a gain of about 50% from prices on Tuesday afternoon. The stock was trading around $332.45 at 1:58 p.m. ET. They said that Tesla, with 80% of its year-to-date revenues coming from vehicle sales, is frequently excluded from the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, datacenters, renewable energy, robotics, and on-shoring. However, they think that could change in the coming years if Tesla can successfully implement some of its initiatives outside the core car business. "Tesla is a car company. That is a fact. However, we also view Tesla as a collection of call options," the analysts said in a Monday note. "Many of these call options have exercise dates far out into the future. Many may not be exercised at all. Others may be starting to move into the money right now."The analysts point in particular to its energy sector, which is already showing huge growth even though few investors cared about it just a few quarters ago. Last year, Tesla's storage deployments more than doubled, and are on track to do so again this year, the analysts say.That means it's no longer controversial to suggest Tesla's energy business could soon be more valuable than its auto business, they wrote.They also see the potential for its autonomous driving capabilities to be the "great unlock" that transforms Tesla into an AI giant."In our opinion, the winners in autonomy (whether in cars or other form factors) will be those firms who can combine capabilities in data, robotics, energy, AI, manufacturing and downstream infrastructure," the analysts said. "We believe Tesla has the capability to benefit from this theme over time."The emergence of other themes will be helped by Musk's potentially greater political influence in coming years, the analysts say.Since the election, investors seem to be betting that Musk—and his companies—will benefit from his close ties to the President-elect. Musk became a key Trump ally in the final months of the campaign, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">donating millions</a> and voicing his support in key swing states like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">Pennsylvania</a>.The analysts said it is clear that Musk has gained considerable political influence. If he applies that influence to advance policies to advance EVs, robotics, and renewables, it could accelerate Tesla's journey beyond being just a carmaker."Setting the United States on a course for EV/AV/Robotics/Renewable independence is going to involve government and industrial partnership on a scale some have compared to the Manhattan Project, US Highway Act or the Apollo Missions. Elon Musk's emergence from a political 'outsider' to having a voice in potential policies may, at some level, accelerate Tesla's journey beyond autos," the analysts say.Musk said he would be interested in <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-rally-elon-musk-save-department-government-efficiency-2024-10">running a new "Department of Government Efficiency"</a> to slash costs and reduce the federal budget. Morgan Stanley's bullish call comes as Tesla's stock has seen <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11?_gl=1*1exg2qk*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQyNzQ0OS4zOTQuMC4xNzMxNDI3NDU3LjUyLjAuMA..">huge inflows</a> amid a broader <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">post-election rally</a>. The stock has risen 34% since the election outcome was called, and has continued trading around a two-year high.

Tesla stock could soar 50% as it broadens beyond autos and as Musk exerts more political influence, Morgan Stanley says 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock indexes retreated as investors digested Thursday commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell sharply after Powell's address.</li></ul>US equities slumped Friday morning as Wall Street pulled back rate-cut expectations for December.The scaling-back started on Thursday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that central bank will take its time in easing policy, citing ongoing US economic strength."The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," he said.The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut fell to less than 60% shortly after Powell's comments, down from 80%, as calculated by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>. The probability remained lower, around 58%, on Friday morning.Also impacting rate-cut expectations is a streak of encouraging economic data. New figures on Friday showed US retail sales advanced in October, boosted by a jump in autos purchases.While the three major indexes headed for their first losing week since the election, bond yields climbed. The 2-year yield — most sensitive to near-term rate forecasts — has risen 7 basis points in the last two days.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,905.37, down 0.7%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,547.05, down 0.5% (213 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,859.96, down 1.3%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-prediction-bull-market-drivers-top-2024-11?_gl=1*1wkitcm*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTY3NDUwNC44NDAuMS4xNzMxNjc4ODMzLjU1LjAuMA..">3 stock market rally drivers are hitting extremes and pointing to low returns</a>, David Rosenberg said.</li><li>David Einhorn is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-cnh-stock-value-buy-agriculture-inflation-2024-11?_gl=1*jv6vk7*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTY3NDUwNC44NDAuMS4xNzMxNjc4OTczLjE1LjAuMA..">loading up on a CNH Industrial</a>, a cheap agricultural stock 'no one cares about.'</li><li>Investors underestimate how deep <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil markets were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> slid 0.96% to $68.04 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.94% to $71.88 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> stayed essentially flat at $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury climbed 4 basis points to 4.459%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.28% to $90,053.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes tumble after Fed comments dent December rate-cut odds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla investors will be closely watching profit margins when the company reports earnings on Wednesday.</li><li>Tesla stock is down 13% this year compared to the S&amp;P 500's 22% gain.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> will report third-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday, and Wall Street will be hyper-focused on the company's core auto business.That's a shift from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">the recent hype surrounding Tesla's robotaxi,</a> which is still years away from hitting the market. At the end of the day, Tesla gets the bulk of its revenue and profits from selling cars, and Wall Street wants to see the company return to growth mode in its core auto business.The company is on track to deliver about the same number of cars this year as it did in 2023, and it has seen a steady deterioration in its profit margins due to aggressive price cuts earlier this year.Tesla stock is down 13% year-to-date, compared to a 22% gain for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> over the same time period.However, some analysts on Wall Street expect the upcoming third-quarter earnings print will be a sign that the worst is behind Tesla.Here's what Wall Street expects from Tesla's upcoming earnings report.<h3 id="c6cb087f-2fb6-4381-a552-4a20fa42e990">Barclays: 'Back to fundamentals'</h3>"With Tesla's Robotaxi Day passed, we believe the focus for Tesla at least for now shifts back to fundamentals," Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in a note last week.Levy expects Tesla to beat earnings estimates, with estimated earnings per share of 68 cents versus consensus of about 60 cents."After a run of sharply negative revisions to earnings estimates, Tesla estimates have largely stabilized. Volumes are expected to be flat y/y, margins have troughed and are set to improve, reg credit revenue can be a solid boost as other OEMs rely on Tesla to achieve compliance, Tesla Energy is generating solid growth, and opex may trend lower for now as Tesla realizes the cost saves of headcount reductions," Levy said.Those points, along with the fact that Tesla stock sold off after its robotaxi event, give Levy confidence that the company's third-quarter earnings will be a positive catalyst for the stock.Aside from Tesla discussing the earnings results and guidance on its conference call, Levy said any commentary about plans for a lower cost vehicle could move the stock."We also wouldn't dismiss the notion that Tesla could forgo a 'Model 2.5,' instead focusing its resources on rolling out the [autonomous vehicle] strategy — such a move would likely be treated quite negatively by the stock," Levy said.Barclays rates Tesla at "Equal Weight" with a $220 price target.<h3 id="55b61526-09a2-4615-8aee-89c3f03d9563">Wells Fargo: 'Volumes now, margin pain later"'</h3>After Tesla reported "disappointing" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-sales-stock-price-2024-10">third-quarter deliveries earlier this month</a>, Wells Fargo expects the company to make up for the shortfall in sales by offering "aggressive finance promos globally," analyst Colin Langan said in a note last week."We est. the Q3 promotions are equivalent to ~8% lower effective px cut," Langan said, adding that he expects the company to miss Wall Street's third-quarter earnings estimates.Langan estimates that Tesla's automotive gross margin excluding credits will be 13.6% in the third quarter, down from 14.6% in the previous quarter.Wells Fargo rates Tesla at "Underweight" with a $120 price target.<h3 id="33c229bf-f9ee-44cc-ab57-9c97d0ce38bb">Wedbush: 'Margins will be a key focus'</h3>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is staying bullish on Tesla stock, arguing that the company should show a return to growth in its third-quarter earnings call and forward guidance."We expect generally in-line 3Q headline numbers with some slight upside likely on the margins front showing a bottoming on this key metric," Ives said in a recent note.Ives said Tesla should be able to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2024, and that should rise to more than 2 million vehicles in 2025.But perhaps more important than vehicle deliveries for Wall Street is Tesla's profit margins."Margins will be a key focus on the conference call"," Ives said.He added that investors will want to see this key metric trending in the high teens for the third and fourth quarters and heading toward 20% in 2025. That should soothe fears about further price cuts and convince investors that better days are ahead, Ives said. Wedbush rates Tesla at "Outperform" with a $300 price target.<h3 id="bbd2143e-2db9-4747-b579-3bcc60b4465c">Bloomberg Intelligence: 'More pain to come'</h3>Tesla's aggressive price cuts of 20% over the past year, combined with a plunge in trade-in values for Tesla vehicles, suggests that there's "more pain to come."That's according to Bloomberg Intelligence director of credit Research Joel Levington, who said in a Tuesday note that Tesla's price declines are putting its luxury brand identity at risk.Additionally, Levington said that with Tesla facing more competition, it needs to release a lower-cost vehicle."Tesla is poised to give up share as rivals from Acura to Volvo create a tsunami of new EV products that will flood the markets, making the lower-cost Model 2 and updates of its data product line critical," Levington said.

Wall Street shifts focus back to Tesla's core auto business ahead of earnings as robotaxi hype fades

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla shares rallied 17% on Thursday after the company reported strong earnings. </li><li>The carmaker reported better-than-expected auto margins and gave strong guidance for 2025.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> investors are in a good mood after the firm's latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10#affordable-ev-questions">earnings report</a>.Shares of Elon Musk's carmaker rallied as much as 17% on Thursday as traders took in the firm's third-quarter <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings-analyst-reactions-basics-selling-electric-vehicles-robotaxi-2024-10">financials</a>, which showed that the company beat earnings while gross margins — a measure analysts have kept a close eye on — rose to 19.8%, better than the expected 16.8%.Shares were trading around $250.30 shortly after the opening bell, with the increase marking of the largest gains for the stock in its history. Analysts were upbeat after Wednesday's earnings report, which assuaged some doubts about Tesla's core car business after a rough start to the year amid sagging deliveries and lower demand in China. The company issued better-than-expected guidance for 2025 deliveries, eyeing 20%-30% growth."Last night Tesla delivered an early Christmas present for investors as the bulls got a monster margin rebound and surprisingly strong delivery outlook for 2025, which we would characterize as an Aaron judge-like quarter and guidance," Wedbush Securities analysts said in a note on Thursday, adding that hurt profit margins have been the "major overhang" for Tesla over the last year.Tesla's gross profit margins likely bottomed out in the first half of 2024 and are on track to surpass 20% in the fourth quarter, Morningstar said in a note.Others on Wall Street, though, raised questions about other aspects of Tesla's business. Uncertainty still lingers about Tesla's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-fsd">full self-driving</a> development, the timing of new models, and the outlook for producing and selling Optimus, the company's humanoid <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robots-ai-automation">robot</a>."While CEO Musk forecasted strong unit growth in CY25 and praised his company's opportunities in auto growth, FSD, and Optimus, we're left asking ourselves, 'where's the beef?'" Truist analysts wrote in a note, maintaining their "Hold" rating on the stock. "TSLA offered no details on a CY25 model, no details on improved FSD, and no details on its plans for Optimus. Similar to our views post-Robotaxi day, we were left expecting more."

Tesla stock surges 17% after stellar earnings, one of the biggest increases in company history     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla stock fell as much as 10% after its robotaxi reveal underwhelmed Wall Street analysts.</li><li>Analysts criticized Tesla's lack of details for its robotaxi network, compared to Waymo's already operational service.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> stock dropped as much as 10% on Friday after the automaker's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-event-cybercab-elon-musk-2024-10">robotaxi reveal event</a> underwhelmed Wall Street.Tesla CEO Elon Musk <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-event-cybercab-elon-musk-2024-10">unveiled the company's vision of the future,</a> which includes two-seater Cybercabs ferrying people from point A to B autonomously. The car has no steering wheel or foot pedals.But Wall Street wasn't impressed, especially considering robotaxi service Waymo is already up and running."The Cybercab demos were conducted on a movie set in a well-controlled environment, and were very similar to a slow and short amusement park ride. Waymo is now hosting 100k rides per week in major cities, so we expect more from TSLA's demo," Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said.A lack of details about the actual execution of Tesla's vision seemed to be a common theme across analyst notes Friday morning.Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said Tesla still has a lot to prove to investors, as the vision Musk offered Thursday evening wasn't any different from the autonomous vision future he's outlined in the past."We found Tesla's Robotaxi event to be underwhelming and stunningly absent on detail," Sacconaghi said.He added: "Musk has painted a consistent vision and promise of autonomy for nearly a decade, and we (and investors) had hoped last night's event would provide a detailed roadmap for getting there. But details were scant to non-existent."Even if Tesla manages to launch a robotaxi network by Musk's timeline of 2026 or 2027, Sacconaghi said it probably won't lead to outsized profits for the company because of technical and regulatory reasons."Even if Tesla is able to be first to L5, it is likely that fast followers can catch up with competitive offerings, mitigating opportunities for outsized profits, and in the meanwhile, we continue to worry that Tesla's core autos business will have limited growth and margin expansion until the lower cost Model 2 is ramped, likely only in 2027," Sacconaghi warned.There was at least one Wall Street analyst who struck a positive tone after Tesla's robotaxi event: Wedbush analyst Dan Ives."We strongly disagree with the notion that last night was a disappointment as we would argue the opposite seeing Cybercab with our own eyes," Ives said in a Friday note. "This vehicle is now a reality and not just talk."While shares of Tesla plunged on Friday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/uber-stock">Uber</a> stock popped 9% on the view that Tesla's future robotaxi network is nowhere close to disrupting Uber's core business.

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Tesla stock could soar 50% as it broadens beyond autos and as Musk exerts more political influence, Morgan Stanley says

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Wall Street shifts focus back to Tesla's core auto business ahead of earnings as robotaxi hype fades

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Tesla stock surges 17% after stellar earnings, one of the biggest increases in company history

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