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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine has mostly been able to counter Russia's air force, blunting its ability to affect the war.</li><li>But Russia may now have a plan to lure away Ukrain's air defense to make an opening, experts said.</li></ul>Russia may be trying to lure Ukraine's air defense systems away from the front line so its air force can play a bigger role, war analysts said.The influential Institute for the Study of War pointed on Wednesday to Russia's increasing missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's energy facilities.It theorized that Russia was doing it to bait Ukraine into moving its air defense systems away from the front lines.Without the defenses in place, Russia could deploy its warplanes with less concern that they'll be shot down."Russian forces may be intensifying strikes to further pressure the Ukrainian command to deploy air defense systems away from the front in order to more safely intensify aviation operations in support of ground operations," the ISW said.Ukraine has largely held back Russia's air force despite having a much smaller and older air force itself.By using its air-defense systems — both Soviet-era and modern, Western-donated supplies — Ukraine has rendered crucial parts of its air space too dangerous for Russian jets to enter.Though Russia can still launch long-range attacks with its planes, the dynamic strongly limits the overall damage it can do.Instead of risking its planes over the front lines, Russia has focused air strikes on towns and cities across Ukraine, killing civilians and destroying residential buildings.Air warfare experts told Business Insider that<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-force-enter-devastate-ukraine-if-missiles-run-out-2024-2"> Ukraine's ability to deny Russia's air force has been a hugely impressive achievement</a> — significant enough to stop Russia from winning the war soon after its full-scale invasion in February 2022.However, the strategy is one that Ukraine may not be able to continue successfully as air defense supplies run low.House Republicans have been stalling $60 billion in further aid for Ukraine, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-veteran-in-ukraine-says-ammo-desperately-needed-not-tanks-2024-3">soldiers there say they can feel the impact</a>, as they are forced to ration ammunition and not hit targets.If Ukraine doesn't have enough air defenses, Russia's air force could quickly make its power felt, the experts warned BI earlier this year.Justin Bronk, a Russia and air warfare expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, said Ukraine's actions meant Russia's air force "has, up to this point, been largely irrelevant to the conflict in terms of the battlefield."But he warned that could change."Ukraine's ability to sustain air defense coverage over the front lines and the immediate area behind them: If that is not sustained, Ukraine could lose the war quite quickly."The ISW warned in February that Russia <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-superiority-avdiivka-could-be-devastating-for-ukraine-2024-2">appeared to temporarily establish air superiority over the town of Avdiivka</a>, likely it had done so since its full-scale invasion started. [The town soon fell.]The ISW warned that it would be "devastating" if Russia could keep doing that.Ukraine's defenses near the front lines in the east have been able <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-army-destroyed-10th-russian-plane-days-2024-2">to shoot many Russian jets down</a>, notching an impressive kill streak in February.Ukraine appears to have at least one <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-performance-in-ukraine-dispels-doubts-over-abilities-experts-2024-3">US-made Patriot battery</a> in that area, and at least one protecting the capital city, Kyiv.But Ukraine says those missiles are running out, too, and <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ukraines-allies-not-giving-enough-air-defence-minister-says/articleshow/109008543.cms?from=mdr">asked allies for more of the systems</a>.

Russia may be trying to get its air force in the fight by luring Ukraine into moving its air defences, war experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia will have to scale back front-line assaults in a month and a half, per a Ukrainian commander.</li><li>General Oleksandr Pivnenko told Ukrinform that Russia's offensive capabilities are "not unlimited."</li></ul>Russia will have to scale back its front lines assaults in a month and a half due to battlefield losses, according to a Ukrainian commander.General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, made the assessment to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3888545-brigadnij-general-oleksandr-pivnenko-komanduvac-nacgvardii.html">Ukrinform</a> on Thursday."In another month and a half, they will not be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once and will switch to defense," he told the outlet, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/pivnenko-russia/">translation</a> by the Kyiv Independent.Pivnenko cited Russian force's "not unlimited" offensive capabilities and the losses they are suffering on the front lines.Russia has suffered mounting deaths since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, in part due to it using waves of troops in head-on "meat assault" attacks.The UK's Ministry of Defence <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hits-record-daily-casualty-average-ukraine-uk-intel-2024-3">reported</a> in March that Russia averaged nearly 1,000 casualties a day in February, which included both killed and wounded soldiers, likely due to Russia's attritional approach to the fighting.Last year, independent Russian outlets Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/average-time-russian-draftee-die-4-months-ukraine-report-2023-9">estimated</a> that life expectancy on the battlefield for Russian soldiers was about four and a half months.On Monday, the UK MOD <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1815417171368882672">said</a> that Russia's casualty rate reached a high of more than 1,000 losses a day on average in May and June, with that number likely to stay above 1,000 over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overrun Ukrainian positions using large numbers of troops.Despite mounting losses, Russia has been able to reconstitute its manpower and capabilities, according to senior military officials.Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-underestimated-russia-ability-to-resupply-army-troops-ammo-general-2024-1">told Bloomberg</a> in January that NATO has significantly underestimated Russia's capacity to replenish its armed forces with personnel and ammunition.And during a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-after-ukraine-losses-us-official-2024-4">talk</a> hosted by the Center for a New American Security in April, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Russia has "almost completely" reformed its military capabilities after taking heavy losses in Ukraine.Pivnenko also said that Russia will replenish its troops, so Ukraine needs to prepare its own reserves and armament.He told Ukrinform that this involves developing training centers, and procuring weapons, military equipment, drones, armored vehicles, air defense systems, man-portable air defense systems, and ammunition.If Ukraine plans "one step ahead of Russia, then everything will be fine," he said.

Russia will have to scale back front lines assaults in 6 weeks due to losses, Ukrainian commander says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A US commander appeared to suggest UK special forces were operating in Ukraine.</li><li>Gen. Bryan Fenton told The AP that the US was "taking a lot of lessons" from UK special forces in Ukraine.</li></ul>A US commander has appeared to suggest that UK special forces were operating in <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/war-ukraine-showing-us-army-soldiers-threats-of-future-fight-2024-2">Ukraine</a>.In an interview with <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://apnews.com/article/army-special-forces-troops-cuts-ukraine-lessons-ac7c41d5d9f299fadc96f2c2520c2abf">The Associated Press</a>, Gen. Bryan Fenton, the Commander of US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), spoke about plans to restructure <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-green-berets-conducted-unconventional-warfare-training-sweden-2023-7">Green Beret teams</a> based on lessons from British special forces in Ukraine."A 12-person detachment might be up-gunned," Fenton said, explaining that as warfare becomes more high-tech, there may be a need for teams to have a cyber expert, an <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/f-16-to-ukraine-most-dangerous-battlefield-2024-4">Air Force pilot</a>, or a cryptologist, for example.He said the ideas had come from "lessons learned out of the experience in Ukraine, mostly through the eyes of our UK special operations partners, who not only have done that in their formations, but they've also learned very quickly that they needed other elements of their joint force."Fenton said that British commandos have required Royal Air Force pilots' advice on drone operations and needed navy personnel "to help them understand, more than a SOF (special operations forces) teammate could, the way a ship in the Black Sea navigates."There has been much speculation over the covert <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dmitry-medvedev-threatens-nuclear-attacks-western-capitals-nato-troops-ukraine-2024-5">presence of Western troops in Ukraine</a>. Indeed, the possibility of Western powers openly sending military units to fight Putin's forces has gained momentum in recent months, with President <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-emmanuel-macron-2017-3">Emmanuel Macron</a> saying he'd consider dispatching French soldiers.In a statement to Business Insider, a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: "It is the long-standing policy of successive governments not to comment on UK Special Forces."United Kingdom Special Forces comprises several elite units, including the Special Air Service, the Special Boat Service, the Special Reconnaissance Regiment, the Special Forces Support Group, 18 Signal Regiment, and the Joint Special Forces Aviation Wing.The Royal Marine Commandos and the Ranger Regiment also include special operations–capable forces.<div type="image" title="SAS british sniper english" height="544" width="1038" msid="110058470" hostid="261" sizebytes="44772"></div>Ukrainian commanders told <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sas-troops-are-training-local-forces-in-ukraine-32vs5bjzb">The Times of London</a> in April 2022 that special forces were in Ukraine to train Ukrainian recruits on British-supplied anti-tank missiles known as NLAWs. One senior European defense official told the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.ft.com/content/10df6f24-7ce6-407f-8509-76c65ec6e740">Financial Times</a> in February: "Everyone knows there are Western special forces in Ukraine — they've just not acknowledged it officially."Meanwhile, the radical idea of Western troops being officially sent to Ukraine has been floated by <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-emmanual-macron-france-join-ukraine-war-on-russia-conditions-2024-5">French President Emmanuel Macron</a>.Speaking to <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english?utm_medium=affiliates.content.pd&amp;utm_source=Skimbit%20Ltd.&amp;utm_campaign=16002&amp;utm_content=Online%20Tracking%20Link&amp;irclickid=WS%3AU7jSegxyPWYMS1GQke3goUkHQD3zhmWSw2U0&amp;channel=Impact&amp;irgwc=1">The Economist</a> at the end of April, Macron said: "I'm not ruling anything out because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out.""We have undoubtedly been too hesitant by defining the limits of our action to someone who no longer has any and who is the aggressor," he added.Macron said he'd consider sending troops "if the Russians were to break through the front lines" or "if there were a Ukrainian request—which is not the case today."Russia had previously issued stark warnings in response to some of Macron's claims, saying troops sent to Ukraine would meet the same fate as Napoleon's army, which lost more than <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/napoleon-invades-russia/">300,000 men</a> when it invaded Russia in 1812.In a <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dmitry-medvedev-threatens-nuclear-attacks-western-capitals-nato-troops-ukraine-2024-5">post</a> on X, formerly Twitter, earlier this week, Dmitry Medvedev, a former prime minister of Russia, also threatened that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Western states if NATO sent troops to Ukraine.

US commander appeared to suggest UK special forces were operating in Ukraine

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine says Russian forces were fooled into striking dummy models of military targets. </li><li>Air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said that Russia attacked the models with Iskander-M missiles.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/drone-dogfights-evolving-fast-in-ukraine-russia-video-shows-wwi-2024-6">Ukrainian forces</a> say they duped Russia into striking dummy models of aircraft and air defense systems with Iskander-M missiles.Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-maybe-trying-lure-ukraine-defenses-from-front-air-force-2024-4">Ukrainian air force</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/ComAFUA/338">posted about the savvy tactic on Telegram</a>.He shared footage that he claimed showed recent enemy strikes with Iskander-Ms on the mock-ups, which he said were placed at an airfield close to the city of Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine and the Yuzhne area, near the Black Sea port of Odesa.He said the footage was captured by Russian reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles."The Air Force personnel successfully conducted passive defense measures!" Oleshchuk wrote in the post."Thank you to everyone who helps with high-quality models of aircraft and air defense systems. The enemy has fewer 'Iskanders,' and more models will be delivered," he added.It would not be the first time that Ukraine has used "fake" military targets since Russia launched its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/russia-ukraine-war">full-scale invasion in February 2022</a>.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-made-realistic-decoys-of-weapons-to-fake-out-russia-2024-2">Photos and videos circulating on social media</a> in February showed what appeared to be highly realistic decoy versions of radar and air defense systems.Russia has also employed such tactics in the war, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-painting-fake-ship-silhouettes-try-trick-ukraine-drones-uk-2024-3">painting silhouettes of naval vessels on land</a> to try to fool Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an update on the conflict in March.Business Insider contacted the Ukrainian Air Force for comment.<div type="image" title="A Russian Iskander-M missile launcher drives past the symbol &quot;Z&quot; placed on a building supporting the Russian armed forces before a military parade on Victory Day in Moscow on May 9, 2023." height="2952" width="4518" msid="111556330" hostid="261"></div><h2 id="ea0543c6-bbcc-46a5-9afd-b4b9b0a09c70">The Iskander-M missile</h2>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-iskander-m-ballistic-missile-2018-5">Iskander-M</a> is a Russian "road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of up to 500 km" (around 310 miles), according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project.The missile has a launch weight of up to almost 8,900 pounds, and it was first used in combat by Russian forces against Georgia in 2008, per the Missile Defense Project.Moscow has claimed that the missile will not be rivaled by Western rivals until 2025."According to designers, foreign states will be able to create its counterpart no earlier than in 2025," Russian Ground Forces Commander-in-Chief Col. Gen. Oleg Salyukov <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-iskander-m-ballistic-missile-2018-5">said</a>.

Ukraine says it fooled Russia into striking fake planes and air defense systems with Iskander-M ballistic missiles

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine said it hit a Russian A-50 and Ilyushin Il-22 on Sunday.</li><li>Russia only has a few of each prized aircraft, which serve as command planes.</li></ul>Ukraine said it hit two Russian command aircraft in a single day over the weekend.Sources in Ukraine's military intelligence agency, HUR, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26735">told the Kyiv Post</a> that a Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane and Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post had both been hit on Sunday.The claim came after reports in Ukrainian media that an A-50 was downed over Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region shortly after it took off, with an Ilyushin Il-22 damaged in the same attack and forced to make an emergency landing, the report said.Ukraine's claim has not been independently verified.The A-50 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-western-fighter-jets-early-warning-planes-ukraine-war-intelligence-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T">is able to locate enemy planes</a> at long distances and can also act as a mobile command-and-control center that can direct Russia's air strikes and other attacks.In total, Russia has only nine of the aircraft, Forbes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/14/ukrainian-sources-we-just-shot-down-two-of-russias-best-command-planes/?sh=25c32e63adf7">reported</a>.Meanwhile, Russia has heavily relied on the Ilyushin Il-22, a special-mission aircraft, during its invasion of Ukraine, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-valuable-command-aircraft-safe-from-ukraine-downed-by-wagner-2023-6?r=US&amp;IR=T">Business Insider's Jake Epstein previously reported</a>.The UK Ministry of Defence said in June that Russia only has a small fleet of the aircraft but considers them "high-value assets" because they can fly securely in Russian airspace where they are out of reach of Ukraine's air defenses.It is unclear what weapons Ukraine used in Sunday's attacks. The HUR sources said they would not comment on how the attack was carried out.Russia has already lost some of these aircraft since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Even though Russia had tried to keep its Ilyushin Il-22s far enough away that they could not be hit by Ukraine, an <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shocking-images-wrecked-russia-plane-shot-wagner-revolt-2023-6">Ilyushin Il-22M was shot down by Russian mercenary Wagner Group</a> during its short-lived uprising last year.And opposition activists in Belarus <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/belarus-group-claims-to-destroy-russia-military-aircraft-minsk-2023-2">said they destroyed a Russian A-50</a> in their country last February.Neither Ukraine nor Russia release figures for how many of their aircraft have been destroyed, and no fully verified figures exist.But Ukraine has destroyed multiple Russian aircraft in the conflict. Some of those have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-many-russia-planes-blown-up-in-base-exposes-gaps-defenses-2023-8?r=US&amp;IR=T">destroyed while they sat on airfields on Russian soil</a>.Russia has a significantly larger fleet than Ukraine, but both sides have powerful air defense systems, meaning aircraft have often stayed away from the front lines.Even so, Ukraine is warning that it needs to boost its air defense arsenal to stop Russian aircraft and the drones and missiles that have hit its towns and cities.

Ukraine says it hit 2 prized Russian command aircraft in just one day

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine has been targeting Russia's Kerch Bridge to cut off military transports to Crimea.</li><li>A top Ukrainian naval commander pledged to destroy the highly symbolic bridge this year.</li></ul>A Ukrainian naval commander pledged to destroy a key bridge that connects occupied Crimea with Russia.Oleksii Neizhpapa, Commander of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, made the statement in an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKirz4ogEVI&amp;t=2424s">interview</a> with Dmytro Gordon, a former Kyiv City Council member and journalist, on Monday.The Crimean bridge's "days are over," Neizhpapa told Gordon, per a <a target="_blank" href="https://english.nv.ua/nation/the-crimean-bridge-will-be-destroyed-by-the-end-of-2024-50390300.html">translation</a> by The New Voice of Ukraine."I don't think we have to wait long — this year for sure," he added.The 12-mile Kerch Bridge opened four years after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and since then it has been a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-smoke-screens-sunken-ships-defend-bridge-ukraine-drone-boats-2023-9">key supply and logistics route</a> connecting the Russian mainland with occupied Crimea.Ukraine has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/storm-shadow-hits-2-crimea-bridges-scalps-missile-arrive-france-2023-8">repeatedly</a> targeted the bridge, in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-admits-blowing-up-russias-bridge-to-crimea-2023-7">multiple</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-kerch-bridge-to-crimea-must-be-neutralized-2023-7">attacks</a> starting in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-attack-on-russia-crimea-bridge-is-blow-to-putin-2022-10">October 2022</a>.Neizhpapa failed to specify how Ukraine was going to make good on his pledge.The Kerch Bridge is of strategic importance to Russia because it's the shortest land route to Crimea, with Russia's military using it to transport large amounts of equipment and soldiers to Ukraine.It also holds vast symbolic importance. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the bridge a "miracle" when it was first opened in 2018, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-kerch-bridge-to-crimea-must-be-neutralized-2023-7?r=US&amp;IR=T">described</a> it as "an enemy facility" that was built in defiance of international law.<div type="image" title="Flames and smoke rising up after an explosion at the Kerch bridge in the Kerch Strait, Crimea" height="1158" width="2000" msid="107466950" hostid="261" sizebytes="41384"></div>Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the bridge has been repeatedly damaged. A fuel tank explosion <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hints-sabotage-russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-putins-70th-birthday-2022-10">took out part of it</a> in October 2022, just one day after Vladimir Putin's 70th birthday, forcing Russia to undertake <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-drove-across-damaged-crimea-bridge-closest-to-ukraine-war-2022-12">repair</a> work.Ukraine did not directly <a target="_blank" href=" https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hints-sabotage-russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-putins-70th-birthday-2022-10">claim responsibility</a>, but officials hinted at sabotage.Last July, explosions caused longer-lasting damage, with Russia <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/12-mile-bridge-crimea-lifeline-russia-constant-attacks-headache-2023-7">stopping the flow of traffic</a> to and from occupied Crimea via the bridge.Russia said that the bridge was repaired and fully operational by October, but the UK's Ministry of Defence <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/crimea-bridge-security-burden-for-russia-despite-fixed-claims-uk-2023-10">said</a> at the time that it was "now almost certainly a significant security burden."Protecting the bridge from Ukrainian attacks will require "multi-domain protection, including the use of air defense systems and crews who would otherwise be deployed elsewhere," the UK MOD added.Russia has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-smoke-screens-sunken-ships-defend-bridge-ukraine-drone-boats-2023-9">established multiple defenses</a> for the bridge, like smoke screens, sunken ships, and containment booms, to try to protect it.Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to develop its drone and naval arsenal, which it has used to conduct operations in the Black Sea, resulting in Russia <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lost-fifth-black-sea-fleet-last-four-months-2023-12">losing an estimated 20%</a> of its fleet stationed in the region.

Ukrainian navy commander vows to destroy Putin's treasured Crimean bridge this year: Its 'days are over'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>After 16 months of fighting, most of Russia's air force remains intact.</li><li>Despite its numerical advantage, Russia can't control the skies over Ukraine, but neither can Kyiv.</li></ul>After 16 months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia's military still has nearly all of its combat aircraft, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian aircraft can control the air, the Royal Air Force's top general said Thursday.Jets and helicopters have not disappeared from over Ukraine, but thickets of air-defense systems make the airspace inhospitable. And even though Russia has a vastly larger air force, other issues may keep it from operating effectively, according to two NATO air commanders.In a speech at the Global Air &amp; Space Chiefs' Conference in London on Thursday, Air Chief Marshal Rich Knighton, chief of the British air staff, said Russia's land force is now "weaker," having lost more than two-thirds of its tanks, "but the air force remains largely intact."Knighton displayed graphics depicting both side's losses, based on assessments by British Defence Intelligence and open-source tracking website Oryx. One graphic said Russia has taken over 220,000 casualties, including 176 military pilots, and lost 162 air-defense systems. A second graphic said Russia's air force retains 96% of its 2,021 fixed-wing aircraft and 90% of its 899 helicopters, with losses of 86 planes and 90 helicopters.<div type="image" title="Royal Air Force Knighton Russian losses Ukraine" height="989" width="2000" msid="101786583" hostid="261" sizebytes="59892"></div>The second graphic noted heavier losses for Ukraine's air force: 68 fixed-wing aircraft, leaving 78% of its 314-plane fleet, and 31 helicopters, or 48% of its 59 helicopters. Ukraine now has 15 combat aircraft for every 100 that Russia has, the graphic said.Those numbers differ slightly from previous estimates. A US intelligence document leaked online this spring listed Russian losses at 72 fighter jets and fighter-bombers and 81 helicopters and Ukrainian losses at 60 fighters and fighter-bombers and 32 helicopters.The leaked document noted that officials had "low confidence" in attrition estimates due to "information gaps," operational security and information operations, and bias in information shared by Ukraine.Knighton said neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to gain air superiority, "but the advantage is with defense" and the force on offense "faces a massive challenge without air superiority and without being able to strike the adversary in the deep."That echoes comments of numerous US and NATO officials, who have said that effective air-defense networks on both sides <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fighter-jets-unable-to-provide-close-air-support-over-ukraine-2023-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prevent both Ukraine and Russia from achieving air superiority</a> and launching effective air attacks on front line or rear-area targets.<div type="image" title="Ukraine air force jet Donetsk" height="827" width="1240" msid="101786586" hostid="261" sizebytes="18490"></div>Had Russia's air force been able to control the skies when it attacked in February 2022, "it probably would have been a three- or a 10-day war," Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe and of NATO's Allied Air Command, said on a June 29 episode of <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/ukraine-and-lessons-learned-for-airpower-and-spacepower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the War on the Rocks podcast</a>."All the equipment that the 45 nations have offered Ukraine and trucked in would never have gotten there if Russia had air superiority," Hecker said. "They would have had close air support aircraft right on the border of Poland and Romania, over the lines of communications, and as soon as it crossed the border it would have been done."Both sides have effective air-defense networks that are countering the other's operations, added Hecker, who said in March that Ukraine had <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-getting-more-fighter-jets-air-defense-ammo-is-priority-2023-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lost more than 60 aircraft</a> and Russia more than 70.Ukraine now has "a very, very sophisticated, robust, resilient, integrated air- and missile-defense system, as does Russia, so what you're seeing is Russia can't fly their airplanes deep into Ukraine, because they get shot down," Hecker said. "Likewise, Ukraine can't fly theirs into Russia because of that same reason."Aircraft from both sides are still active, however. Airstrikes were part of Ukraine's preparation for the counteroffensive it launched in June. While Russia's air force hasn't brought most of its airpower to bear, its aircraft continue <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/12/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-counteroffensive-russia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to strike</a> Ukrainian positions and there are signs it is tinkering with new ways to employ them, though often from the safety of Russian-held territory.<div type="image" title="Russian Su-25 jet hit by missile over Ukraine" height="1029" width="2000" msid="101786588" hostid="261" sizebytes="103248"></div>"We've been seeing them do experimentations with different types of rockets that they're able to launch from slightly farther back on their side," Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corporation think tank, said on <a href="https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/how-can-ukraine-survive-the-exhaustion-of-its-air-defense-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a podcast</a> in April, referring to Russian aviation activity near Bakhmut and Kherson.Massicot and others say Russia's air force could still <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/despite-losses-russian-air-force-could-be-effective-in-ukraine-2023-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exploit its numerical advantage</a> if Ukraine's air-defenses network falters, though other factors could inhibit Russian air operations going forward. Its losses have likely taken <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fighting-in-ukraine-reveals-russian-air-force-fragility-think-tank-2022-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a heavy toll on its relatively small</a> cadre of skilled pilots, and Western sanctions could limit its ability to repair and build jets.Hecker and his deputy, British Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, also said that despite some recent improvements, issues with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-struggles-in-ukraine-problems-in-russian-pilot-training-2023-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">training</a>, targeting, and decision-making would likely impede the Russian air force's performance."The Russians have recapitalized a fair amount of their tactical air force, and they've done a lot on the weapons front as well. But if you don't address all the lines of development," Stringer said on the War on the Rocks podcast, "stand by to have some flashy things that are not capable in the way that perhaps you expected when you were writing the check."Russian strikes on front-line targets still mostly consist of missiles, bombs, and rockets being "lobbed in" with "very, very little accuracy," Stringer said. "That is not the hallmark of a top-tier air force, and to be honest, although we are probably seeing some improvements — and I don't really want to get too drawn on that — they have a long way to go."

Russia's air force 'remains largely intact,' but more jets won't fix all its problems in Ukraine, NATO commanders say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine said it struck two hugely valuable Russian aircraft over the weekend.</li><li>The planes seemed to go unusually close to the fighting, enabling Ukraine to hit them, one expert said.</li></ul>Russia's loss of two valuable aircraft will unnerve its air force and make it even more conservative, an expert told Business Insider.Ukraine said it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-hit-2-prized-russia-command-aircraft-one-day-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">damaged two Russian command aircraft</a> — a Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane and Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post — on Sunday, hitting the planes with its air defense systems.According to Rajan Manon, a Russia and Ukraine expert and a director of the US-based Defense Priorities think tank, the aircraft appeared to get unusually close to the front lines.He said that their fate will make Russia even more wary about how it uses the ones that remain."It's going to certainly make them more jittery," Manon told BI. "They're going to be much more careful in how and where they use them. No question."<div type="image" title="A photos shows a white aircraft wing full of holes with a red star on it" height="1626" width="2000" msid="106935247" hostid="261"></div>Gustav Gressel, a missile defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia's thinking will be that "once Ukraine shoots such a high-value asset so far away from the front, you will not risk another one."He said it could already be observed that Russia was directing A-50s further from the line of control.The UK Ministry of Defence <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1747544627257745426?s=20">said</a> on Wednesday that Russia will likely "now be forced to reconsider limiting the operational areas of its aircraft."Russia only has a few of each plane: it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-destroys-russian-spy-plane-airborne-command-post-2024-01-15/">estimated</a> to have eight A-50s and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/14/ukrainian-sources-we-just-shot-down-two-of-russias-best-command-planes/?sh=347aa7f93adf">30 Il-22s before this latest attack.</a>The latest losses come after Ukraine <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-claims-5-planes-shot-down-massive-russia-drone-attack-2023-12">downed five Russian jets</a> in December. Considering those losses together, Manon said: "For the Russian Air Force, it's kind of embarrassing.""You have these two episodes in rapid succession: you lose five fighter jets, and now you lose two of these aircraft," he added.Russia had already lost one of each plane since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Last year, an <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shocking-images-wrecked-russia-plane-shot-wagner-revolt-2023-6">Ilyushin Il-22M was shot down by the Russian mercenary Wagner Group during its short-lived rebellion,</a> and opposition activists in Belarus <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/belarus-group-claims-to-destroy-russia-military-aircraft-minsk-2023-2">claimed to have destroyed a Russian A-50 near Minsk</a>.Given the limited supply, the latest developments are "a pretty big loss" for Russia, Manon said, adding that these aircraft are a key resource for Russia.<div type="image" title="The Beriev A-50." height="1890" width="2835" msid="106935248" hostid="261"></div>Russia's A-50s can act as a mobile command-and-control center to direct air strikes and attacks, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-western-fighter-jets-early-warning-planes-ukraine-war-intelligence-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T">are able to locate enemy planes</a> at long distances.A-50s reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/what-are-beriev-50-bumblebee-russian-300m-recon-jet-downed-azov-sea-1860638">cost</a> more than $300 million each.The Ilyushin Il-22 is a special-mission aircraft used for airborne command and control.The Il-22 "surveys the battlefield, picks up information, scoops it up, and relays it to distant commanders," Manon said. "This is significant because the Russian system, unlike NATO militaries, is very centralized. So directives are given from on high to units operating on the battlefield."Russia has typically kept its aircraft far from the fighting in Ukraine, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-russia-afraid-to-use-advanced-jet-over-ukraine-2023-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">fearing shootdowns</a>.A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman <a target="_blank" href="https://armyinform.com.ua/2024/01/16/poplatylysya-za-zuhvalist-u-povitryanyh-sylah-rozkryly-podrobyczi-znyshhennya-a-50-ta-il-22/">bragged</a> that Russia paid the price for going too close to the fighting.Why these aircraft were so close to the front is unclear — they may have been trying to escape jamming or had some other strategic reason.Regardless, Manon said the successful attack was "hugely impressive."Ukraine has not said what equipment it used, and another theory is that Russia's own weaponry actually destroyed the planes.Russia has not confirmed the losses, though some pro-war Russian bloggers have said the planes were destroyed.Manon described the latest news as a "big psychological boost" for Ukraine, particularly as ongoing aid from its allies <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-ramps-up-drone-ammo-production-as-allies-waver-2023-12?r=US&amp;IR=T">could be in doubt</a>.Ukraine says it needs more air defense equipment, with Russia trying to erode Ukraine's stockpiles to clear the way for unobstructed attacks.

Russia will be scared to deploy its precious command planes after the 'embarrassing' loss of 2 of them, experts say

New Delhi, India will have two to five theatre commands by 2022, Chief of Defence Staff <keyword id="3969981" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="General-Bipin-Rawat">General Bipin Rawat</keyword> said on Monday. He pointed that in the southern part of the country, India will have a Peninsula command by integrating existing naval eastern and eastern Naval command centres and the Jammu and Kashmir would come under a single be command theatre. The peninsula command under the Navy that will deal with maritime security should come in earlier as directive for a study is expected to be out by March 31. It would spread from Sir Creek in Arabian Sea to Sunderbans in Bay of Bengal. The study should be completed within three to four months and by the end of next year the command under one naval commander should start functioning, <keyword id="4020982" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="general-rawat">General Rawat</keyword> said. He also said that by end of the year a study for theaterisation or joint commands will be in place. By 2022 theatre commands should roll out. The number of theatre commands could vary from two to five, the CDS added. The Chief of Defence Staff is mandated to set up joint commands comprising the Army, Navy and Air Force -- in addition to two existing ones. There are 19 commands as of now and only two of these are tri-service commands. These are the Andaman and <keyword id="579051" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nicobar-Command">Nicobar Command</keyword> and the <keyword id="174799" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Strategic-Forces-Command">Strategic Forces Command</keyword>, which is in charge of nuclear assets. General Rawat added that there is an option of having either one command for China or two separate commands; one East of Nepal and another West of Nepal. Similarly for Pakistan, a separate command for J&amp;K is on the cards, while a separate one for the international border South of Jammu. While the Army and the Air Force have seven commands each, the Navy has three commands. It's felt that reducing the commands and making them function under one umbrella with representation from all three forces -- depending on the region and threat assessment -- will make the military more effective. China and the US function under this model, and there have been suggestions that the Indian military follows a similar tri-service command system. According to some of the recommendations, the commands can be reduced from existing 19 to 9 with a tri-service mix. This will also include the strategic forces command, cyber command and Special Operations Command. The Air Force will be the lead agency for <keyword id="2741154" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Air-Defence-Command">Air Defence Command</keyword> that has already been announced. General Rawat said that March 31 the study will be completed and the report should be ready by April 10. The implementation order for the air defence command is expected by year end, General Rawat said. He also said joint training, and uniformity in procurement procedures will be a key priority.

Indian defence to work under theatre commands just like US and China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's military is suffering from "extreme attrition and high turnover," the UK MoD says.</li><li>This problem persists even in its most senior ranks, highlighted by frequent changes in an elite regiment.</li></ul>There is "extreme attrition and high turnover" in the Russian military, even among its senior ranks, the UK Ministry Defence said in an <a href="https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1705462490056839370" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence update</a> on Saturday.The department pointed to the high turnover of commanders of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, one of Russia's most prestigious airborne regiments.Colonel Vasily Popov, the regiment's commander, died during battle on September 14, making him the third person to lead the regiment since the war began in February 2022.He had replaced his predecessor, Colonel Pyotr Popov, just weeks prior, after the colonel resigned, possibly in protest against the Russian military's failure to retrieve the bodies of dead soldiers, the UK department said, citing Russian media sources.The regiment's first commander, Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky, was killed in battle in the early weeks of the war.This particular regiment's high turnover highlights a a persistent problem across the Russian military, the UK department noted.While Russia has never confirmed casualty numbers, US officials <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-war-almost-500000-killed-or-wounded-us-officials-2023-8?r=US&amp;IR=T">estimated</a> in August that military casualties are approaching 300,000, of which as many as 120,000 are deaths.The estimates suggest that battlefield deaths have risen sharply this year.These deaths are not only among the lower ranks of the army, as many senior Russian commanders have been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russian-officer-elite-decimated-9-who-were-killed-in-combat-2022-3?r=US&amp;IR=T#:~:text=On%20July%2012%2C%20it%20was,deep%20in%20Russian%2Dheld%20territory.&amp;text=Insider%20has%20compiled%20a%20list,so%20far%20in%20the%20war.">reported to have been killed in action</a> throughout the conflict.Ukraine said on Saturday that top Russian military commanders were <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-commanders-wounded-missile-strike-black-sea-fleet-headquarters-2023-9?r=US&amp;IR=T">among those killed or wounded</a> in a missile strike that targeted the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea on Friday.

One of Russia's most prestigious airborne regiments has lost 3 commanders, UK Intel says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's Ministry of Defence published a video showing a Russian commander attending a meeting by video link. </li><li>It was unusual given that Ukraine confidently claimed to have killed him on Friday in an air strike.</li></ul>The Russian Ministry of Defense published a video undermining Ukraine's claim to have killed one of its top commanders, appearing to show him in a meeting.Viktor Sokolov, the admiral of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, appeared on a large screen at a meeting of the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense on Tuesday.The image was striking because Ukraine earlier claimed to have killed Sokolov on Friday in a major strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters near Sevastopol, a port in occupied Crimea.Ukraine's special forces <a href="https://t.me/ukr_sof/760" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said on Monday</a> he was one of 34 officers killed in a missile strike on the naval base. But a man resembling Sokolov, and wearing a name badge and insignia matching his rank, was seen on-screen at the meeting Tuesday.Insider can't verify whether the man in the video is in fact Sokolov, or when the footage and pictures were taken. Ukraine also said that 105 people were injured in the strike.Sokolov didn't appear hurt in the footage, but only his head and chest were visible. He does not speak in the video. The attack on Friday was one of a series Ukraine has launched on Russian military targets in Crimea.Had he been killed, Sokolov would have been one of the most senior casualties in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The Kremlin on Tuesday did not confirm or deny that Sokolov was dead, passing questions to the Russian Ministry of Defense, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-black-sea-commander-shown-working-after-ukraine-said-it-killed-him-2023-09-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported.</a> The ministry did not directly answer, but did publish the video.In a transcript of the meeting in which Sokolov reappeared, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu boasted of what he claimed were recent Russian successes against Ukraine's counteroffensive. According to the <a href="https://www.kchf.ru/command/sokolov.htm#:~:text=Соколов%20Виктор%20Николаевич.%20Вице-адмирал%2C%20ВРИО,боевой%20части%20сторожевого%20корабля%20СКР-61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,</a> Sokolov was appointed its highest ranking officer in September 2022.Ukraine says the fleet has launched attacks on civilian targets, and it is playing a key role in seeking to blockade Ukrainian grain shipments. Russia has previously released pictures of top officials in an apparent bid to quash rumors about their fate. Pictures released of Shoigu <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-top-general-appears-first-131341714.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">with top commanders in Ukraine</a> in June helped counteract rumors that he had been removed from his position after the uprising by the Wagner Group.

Russian Black Sea Fleet commander is still alive, video suggests, days after Ukraine claimed to kill him

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ben Hodges, a retired US general, slammed the Russian military over its lack of progress in Ukraine.</li><li>At a time when Ukraine is struggling badly to defend itself, he said there's "too much negativism."</li></ul>A retired US general slammed Russia's performance in Ukraine, even as President Vladimir Putin's forces seized hold of a key town in the east of the country.Ben Hodges, who previously commanded United States Army Europe, gave a brutal assessment of Russia's achievements so far, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1759234537593110662">telling the Kyiv Independent</a>: "their navy sucks, their air force sucks, and they've lost half a million soldiers."It's unclear where Hodges got this casualty figure from. Current estimates of Russians killed or wounded since 2022 vary between 315,000, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-official-russia-suffers-staggering-losses-despite-ukraine-s-supply-shortages/7491475.html">per a senior US defense official</a>, and just over 400,000, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/">according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defence</a>.However, the UK's Ministry of Defence <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1743588331781316617">said in January</a> that Russia was on track to have lost half a million by the end of the year.Hodges' remarks came as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-troops-pull-out-key-eastern-town-avdiivka-russia-2024-2">Ukraine ceded the eastern town of Avdiivka</a> after a grinding fight that is estimated to have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lost-thousands-of-personnel-and-400-tanks-in-avdiivka-2024">cost Russia more than 400 tanks, as well as many thousands of soldiers</a>.Despite Ukraine's high-profile struggles, Hodges said he believes there's "too much negativism" around its fight with Russia.He also said that the West needs to "body slam" Russia in defense of the young democracy it invaded."After 10 years, Russia had every advantage, and they still only occupy 18% of Ukraine," he said, referring not only to the full-scale invasion that began in 2022 but also Russia's annexation of Crimea and the proxy fighting that began in Donbas in 2014.Hodges' statements come at an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-going-badly-for-ukraine-war-russia-putin-zelenskyy-aid-2024-2">extremely perilous moment for Ukraine's defense</a>. The country has seen international support waver, a change in military leadership, and is faced with a vastly more numerous and better-supplied enemy.Russia has put its economy on a war footing, risking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-inflation-growth-worker-shortage-putin-moscow-2024-2">long-term economic decline</a> but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">causing a temporary boom</a>.Hodges has argued that US spending on Ukraine's defense is extremely cost-effective for American interests."The monetary cost is trivial, a few per cent of our normal defence spending, and it is delivering enormous value for money," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/13/us-general-war-russia-ukraine-hamas-israel-iran-china/">he wrote in The Telegraph late last year</a>.He added: "Russian land combat power and large parts of its air and naval capability have been nullified for a period of years at the very least: deterring that combat power by our normal methods costs us many times as much."Despite not being able to make <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-ran-into-trouble-2023-11">any significant territorial gains in 2023</a>, Ukraine has kept up steady pressure, notably on Russia's air force and navy. It claims to have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-thrashing-russia-black-sea-fleet-no-navy-sevastopol-2024-2">reduced Russia's Black Sea Fleet by a third</a> and, as of Monday, to have shot down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-destroyed-2-russia-jets-6-in-3-days-2024-2">six Russian fighter jets in the space of just three days</a>.Hodges argued that Russia is the country that is "weak on the inside" and that the US and the wider West should support Ukraine "not out of fear, but out of opportunity.""Here's a young, democratic country fighting for its survival, but if Ukraine is successful, it will fix European security problems for decades," he said.

You Searched For "Air Defence Command" and got 12 results

Russia may be trying to get its air force in the fight by luring Ukraine into moving its air defences, war experts say

Sinéad Baker

Russia will have to scale back front lines assaults in 6 weeks due to losses, Ukrainian commander says

Thibault Spirlet

US commander appeared to suggest UK special forces were operating in Ukraine

Nathan Rennolds

Ukraine says it fooled Russia into striking fake planes and air defense systems with Iskander-M ballistic missiles

Rebecca Rommen

Ukraine says it hit 2 prized Russian command aircraft in just one day

Sinéad Baker

Ukrainian navy commander vows to destroy Putin's treasured Crimean bridge this year: Its 'days are over'

Thibault Spirlet

Russia's air force 'remains largely intact,' but more jets won't fix all its problems in Ukraine, NATO commanders say

Christopher Woody

Russia will be scared to deploy its precious command planes after the 'embarrassing' loss of 2 of them, experts say

Sinéad Baker

Indian defence to work under theatre commands just like US and China

IANS

One of Russia's most prestigious airborne regiments has lost 3 commanders, UK Intel says

Alia Shoaib

Russian Black Sea Fleet commander is still alive, video suggests, days after Ukraine claimed to kill him

Tom Porter

A retired US general was scathing about Russia's performance in Ukraine: 'Their navy sucks, their air force sucks'

Mia Jankowicz

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